Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     5 0 118  85  0.312  2.832    1  0.329    1  0.350    2  0.230    1 0.6764   23  1.108   16  0.078    4  0.382 P
VIKINGS    5 0 139  76  0.278  2.631    2  0.317    2  0.329    1  0.291    2 0.6547   20  1.214    8  0.273    7  0.309 P
TEXANS     4 1 102 114 -0.065  2.384    3  0.182    3  0.175   24 -0.062    4 0.5922   22  1.169   22 -0.139   14  0.014 P
COMMANDERS 4 1 155 115 -0.003  2.232    4  0.172    4  0.160    8  0.115    7 0.5649    3  1.515    2  0.517   26 -0.288 P
FALCONS    3 2 111 115  0.366  3.171    5  0.153    5  0.140   14  0.059    3 0.5985   15  1.309   13  0.167   17 -0.048 P
BUCCANEERS 3 2 127 114  0.266  2.876    6  0.129    6  0.114    9  0.108    5 0.5886   11  1.365    7  0.293   18 -0.078 P
LIONS      3 1 104  82 -0.033  1.793    7  0.109    7  0.113   13  0.061    8 0.5565   21  1.196   19  0.021   11  0.102 P
COWBOYS    3 2 117 121  0.162  2.694    8  0.099    9  0.102   12  0.068   11 0.5433    6  1.446    5  0.369   25 -0.232 P
STEELERS   3 2  92  73  0.249  2.780    9  0.091    8  0.106    4  0.139    6 0.5662   28  0.911   25 -0.243    3  0.520 P
BRONCOS    3 2  96  73  0.197  2.675   10  0.065   10  0.094    7  0.122   12 0.5414   29  0.869   27 -0.306    2  0.550 P
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    3 2 128 108  0.176  2.599   11  0.060   11  0.086    6  0.131   13 0.5310   14  1.316   10  0.249   15  0.013 P
RAVENS     3 2 147 126  0.173  2.593   12  0.058   12  0.082    5  0.137    9 0.5552    4  1.457    3  0.454   23 -0.180 P
EAGLES     2 2  86  96  0.357  2.515   13  0.049   13  0.075   15  0.053   10 0.5533   19  1.265   15  0.102   16  0.004 P
SEAHAWKS   3 2 122 114 -0.228  1.941   14  0.015   14  0.012   21 -0.029   17 0.5001    2  1.547    4  0.422   29 -0.481 P
BILLS      3 2 142 106 -0.212  1.840   15  0.013   15  0.008   17  0.050   15 0.5164   10  1.372   11  0.245   20 -0.146 P
CHARGERS   2 2  68  50 -0.021  1.792   16 -0.003   16 -0.013   16  0.052   16 0.5155   32  0.698   30 -0.550    1  0.655 P
BEARS      3 2 113  85 -0.355  1.646   17 -0.007   17 -0.022   18 -0.013   19 0.4800   24  1.032   26 -0.256    9  0.230 P
SAINTS     2 3 140  96  0.221  2.602   18 -0.016   20 -0.031    3  0.149   14 0.5196   18  1.271   12  0.206   12  0.092 P
GIANTS     2 3  89 104  0.114  2.733   19 -0.017   19 -0.030   22 -0.036   18 0.4976   27  0.974   28 -0.347    8  0.275 P
CARDINALS  2 3 120 129  0.093  2.638   20 -0.018   21 -0.034   19 -0.024   21 0.4592   12  1.353   14  0.145   24 -0.193 P
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      2 3 126 106  0.092  2.405   21 -0.036   22 -0.050   10  0.099   24 0.4344    8  1.404    6  0.339   19 -0.141 P
JETS       2 3  93  85  0.218  2.728   22 -0.038   18 -0.028   11  0.086   23 0.4446   25  1.018   23 -0.173    6  0.346 P
COLTS      2 3 119 122 -0.083  2.282   23 -0.068   23 -0.078   23 -0.041   20 0.4755    5  1.452    9  0.269   27 -0.350 P
RAIDERS    2 3  96 131 -0.271  2.258   24 -0.080   24 -0.098   27 -0.184   22 0.4488    9  1.402   17  0.054   28 -0.422 P
TITANS     1 3  79  90 -0.133  1.803   25 -0.107   27 -0.139   25 -0.073   29 0.3954   16  1.307   18  0.033   22 -0.179 P
DOLPHINS   2 3  60 113 -0.521  1.740   26 -0.141   26 -0.137   31 -0.318   27 0.4000   30  0.824   32 -0.794   10  0.157 P
RAMS       1 4  94 139  0.113  2.792   27 -0.146   25 -0.135   26 -0.098   26 0.4017   17  1.288   20 -0.018   21 -0.177 P
BENGALS    1 4 140 145 -0.094  2.291   28 -0.184   29 -0.199   20 -0.028   25 0.4100    1  1.623    1  0.540   32 -0.596 P
PANTHERS   1 4  83 165 -0.208  2.430   29 -0.220   28 -0.187   32 -0.337   31 0.3816   13  1.345   24 -0.179   30 -0.495 P
PATRIOTS   1 4  62 102 -0.233  2.292   30 -0.234   30 -0.211   28 -0.213   32 0.3499   31  0.733   31 -0.781    5  0.355 P
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BROWNS     1 4  79 121 -0.308  2.042   31 -0.241   31 -0.222   29 -0.214   28 0.3969   26  1.011   29 -0.482   13  0.054 P
JAGUARS    1 4  97 143 -0.489  1.770   32 -0.287   32 -0.265   30 -0.262   30 0.3853    7  1.406   21 -0.019   31 -0.505 P

AFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     5 0 118  85  0.312  2.832    1  0.329    1  0.350    2  0.230    1 0.6764   23  1.108   16  0.078    4  0.382 P
BRONCOS    3 2  96  73  0.197  2.675   10  0.065   10  0.094    7  0.122   12 0.5414   29  0.869   27 -0.306    2  0.550 P
CHARGERS   2 2  68  50 -0.021  1.792   16 -0.003   16 -0.013   16  0.052   16 0.5155   32  0.698   30 -0.550    1  0.655 P
RAIDERS    2 3  96 131 -0.271  2.258   24 -0.080   24 -0.098   27 -0.184   22 0.4488    9  1.402   17  0.054   28 -0.422 P

AFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     4 1 102 114 -0.065  2.384    3  0.182    3  0.175   24 -0.062    4 0.5922   22  1.169   22 -0.139   14  0.014 P
COLTS      2 3 119 122 -0.083  2.282   23 -0.068   23 -0.078   23 -0.041   20 0.4755    5  1.452    9  0.269   27 -0.350 P
TITANS     1 3  79  90 -0.133  1.803   25 -0.107   27 -0.139   25 -0.073   29 0.3954   16  1.307   18  0.033   22 -0.179 P
JAGUARS    1 4  97 143 -0.489  1.770   32 -0.287   32 -0.265   30 -0.262   30 0.3853    7  1.406   21 -0.019   31 -0.505 P

AFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS   3 2  92  73  0.249  2.780    9  0.091    8  0.106    4  0.139    6 0.5662   28  0.911   25 -0.243    3  0.520 P
RAVENS     3 2 147 126  0.173  2.593   12  0.058   12  0.082    5  0.137    9 0.5552    4  1.457    3  0.454   23 -0.180 P
BENGALS    1 4 140 145 -0.094  2.291   28 -0.184   29 -0.199   20 -0.028   25 0.4100    1  1.623    1  0.540   32 -0.596 P
BROWNS     1 4  79 121 -0.308  2.042   31 -0.241   31 -0.222   29 -0.214   28 0.3969   26  1.011   29 -0.482   13  0.054 P

AFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      3 2 142 106 -0.212  1.840   15  0.013   15  0.008   17  0.050   15 0.5164   10  1.372   11  0.245   20 -0.146 P
JETS       2 3  93  85  0.218  2.728   22 -0.038   18 -0.028   11  0.086   23 0.4446   25  1.018   23 -0.173    6  0.346 P
DOLPHINS   2 3  60 113 -0.521  1.740   26 -0.141   26 -0.137   31 -0.318   27 0.4000   30  0.824   32 -0.794   10  0.157 P
PATRIOTS   1 4  62 102 -0.233  2.292   30 -0.234   30 -0.211   28 -0.213   32 0.3499   31  0.733   31 -0.781    5  0.355 P

NFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   3 2 122 114 -0.228  1.941   14  0.015   14  0.012   21 -0.029   17 0.5001    2  1.547    4  0.422   29 -0.481 P
CARDINALS  2 3 120 129  0.093  2.638   20 -0.018   21 -0.034   19 -0.024   21 0.4592   12  1.353   14  0.145   24 -0.193 P
49ERS      2 3 126 106  0.092  2.405   21 -0.036   22 -0.050   10  0.099   24 0.4344    8  1.404    6  0.339   19 -0.141 P
RAMS       1 4  94 139  0.113  2.792   27 -0.146   25 -0.135   26 -0.098   26 0.4017   17  1.288   20 -0.018   21 -0.177 P

NFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FALCONS    3 2 111 115  0.366  3.171    5  0.153    5  0.140   14  0.059    3 0.5985   15  1.309   13  0.167   17 -0.048 P
BUCCANEERS 3 2 127 114  0.266  2.876    6  0.129    6  0.114    9  0.108    5 0.5886   11  1.365    7  0.293   18 -0.078 P
SAINTS     2 3 140  96  0.221  2.602   18 -0.016   20 -0.031    3  0.149   14 0.5196   18  1.271   12  0.206   12  0.092 P
PANTHERS   1 4  83 165 -0.208  2.430   29 -0.220   28 -0.187   32 -0.337   31 0.3816   13  1.345   24 -0.179   30 -0.495 P

NFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    5 0 139  76  0.278  2.631    2  0.317    2  0.329    1  0.291    2 0.6547   20  1.214    8  0.273    7  0.309 P
LIONS      3 1 104  82 -0.033  1.793    7  0.109    7  0.113   13  0.061    8 0.5565   21  1.196   19  0.021   11  0.102 P
PACKERS    3 2 128 108  0.176  2.599   11  0.060   11  0.086    6  0.131   13 0.5310   14  1.316   10  0.249   15  0.013 P
BEARS      3 2 113  85 -0.355  1.646   17 -0.007   17 -0.022   18 -0.013   19 0.4800   24  1.032   26 -0.256    9  0.230 P

NFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 4 1 155 115 -0.003  2.232    4  0.172    4  0.160    8  0.115    7 0.5649    3  1.515    2  0.517   26 -0.288 P
COWBOYS    3 2 117 121  0.162  2.694    8  0.099    9  0.102   12  0.068   11 0.5433    6  1.446    5  0.369   25 -0.232 P
EAGLES     2 2  86  96  0.357  2.515   13  0.049   13  0.075   15  0.053   10 0.5533   19  1.265   15  0.102   16  0.004 P
GIANTS     2 3  89 104  0.114  2.733   19 -0.017   19 -0.030   22 -0.036   18 0.4976   27  0.974   28 -0.347    8  0.275 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  14  5 0.737    1  0.391
AFC WEST   12  7 0.632    2  0.195
NFC EAST   11  8 0.579    3  0.152
NFC SOUTH   9 11 0.450    4  0.047
AFC NORTH   8 12 0.400    5  0.031
NFC WEST    8 12 0.400    6 -0.029
AFC EAST    8 12 0.400    7 -0.318
AFC SOUTH   8 11 0.421    8 -0.373

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.131 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Oct  9 16:46:33 2024
games through: Mon Oct  7 2024

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