Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     15  1 385 288  0.079  8.072    1  0.852    1  0.855    7  0.319    1 0.6442   27  1.123   10  0.131    3  0.507
LIONS      13  2 493 299  0.182  7.799    2  0.732    2  0.724    1  0.605    2 0.6264    6  1.483    1  0.906    7  0.304
VIKINGS    14  2 423 301  0.029  7.667    3  0.677    3  0.691    6  0.347    3 0.6106   12  1.299    9  0.388    6  0.306
EAGLES     13  3 443 290  0.017  7.413    5  0.537    5  0.543    4  0.474    4 0.5989   19  1.221    8  0.411    1  0.537
BILLS      13  3 509 345  0.060  7.687    4  0.565    4  0.573    5  0.461    5 0.5935    2  1.578    2  0.905   15  0.016
RAVENS     11  5 483 351  0.178  8.610    7  0.392    7  0.393    3  0.531    6 0.5818    4  1.507    3  0.867    9  0.195
PACKERS    11  5 438 314  0.191  8.526    6  0.419    6  0.421    2  0.534    7 0.5776   10  1.343    5  0.634    4  0.434
STEELERS   10  6 363 328  0.033  8.020   11  0.221   11  0.222   15  0.034    8 0.5446   22  1.201   19 -0.054   13  0.123
RAMS       10  6 342 356  0.093  8.550    8  0.279    8  0.280   12  0.104    9 0.5442   18  1.225   12  0.045   11  0.162
COMMANDERS 11  5 462 372 -0.080  7.159    9  0.267    9  0.265   11  0.137   10 0.5440    3  1.534    7  0.514   23 -0.239
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   10  6 368 281  0.031  7.802   10  0.224   10  0.222    9  0.279   11 0.5377   29  1.072   13  0.029    2  0.529
BUCCANEERS  9  7 475 366  0.063  7.873   13  0.125   13  0.127    8  0.309   12 0.5303    5  1.505    4  0.643   17 -0.025
SEAHAWKS    9  7 345 343  0.071  8.347   12  0.136   12  0.137   13  0.103   13 0.5208   21  1.209   14  0.024   10  0.182
TEXANS      9  7 349 358 -0.022  7.925   15  0.102   15  0.100   20 -0.076   14 0.5177   17  1.226   20 -0.133   16 -0.020
BRONCOS     9  7 387 311  0.030  7.840   14  0.112   14  0.111   10  0.222   15 0.5166   23  1.194   11  0.124    5  0.319
FALCONS     8  8 351 379  0.020  8.241   16  0.037   16  0.037   18 -0.046   16 0.5123   13  1.275   17 -0.037   18 -0.055
CARDINALS   7  9 353 355  0.105  8.591   17 -0.054   17 -0.056   16  0.018   17 0.4922   15  1.232   16 -0.030   14  0.067
BENGALS     8  8 453 417 -0.070  7.422   18 -0.060   18 -0.065   14  0.099   18 0.4915    1  1.627    6  0.619   30 -0.422
COWBOYS     7  9 331 445 -0.069  8.094   21 -0.130   20 -0.110   25 -0.323   19 0.4854    9  1.364   21 -0.193   31 -0.452
49ERS       6  9 331 349  0.078  8.011   20 -0.111   21 -0.114   19 -0.071   20 0.4827   11  1.303   15 -0.026   19 -0.117
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    8  8 325 332 -0.137  7.271   19 -0.079   19 -0.085   17 -0.005   21 0.4742   28  1.100   22 -0.221    8  0.212
COLTS       7  9 351 404 -0.070  7.816   22 -0.163   22 -0.145   22 -0.238   22 0.4678    7  1.402   18 -0.054   29 -0.421
SAINTS      5 11 319 371 -0.131  7.569   23 -0.420   23 -0.409   27 -0.359   23 0.4405   24  1.181   28 -0.474   24 -0.244
RAIDERS     4 12 289 400 -0.010  8.424   24 -0.427   24 -0.420   23 -0.242   24 0.4310   20  1.210   23 -0.319   22 -0.165
BEARS       4 12 286 348  0.007  8.379   25 -0.448   25 -0.444   21 -0.215   25 0.4281   31  0.992   29 -0.559   12  0.129
PANTHERS    4 12 297 496 -0.112  8.083   27 -0.475   27 -0.471   32 -0.526   26 0.4166    8  1.380   25 -0.373   32 -0.679
JETS        4 12 306 384 -0.042  7.999   26 -0.469   26 -0.465   24 -0.265   27 0.4125   25  1.179   26 -0.382   20 -0.147
JAGUARS     4 12 297 409 -0.139  7.691   28 -0.518   28 -0.519   26 -0.323   28 0.4054   16  1.232   24 -0.372   27 -0.274
GIANTS      3 13 260 395 -0.118  7.880   31 -0.598   31 -0.600   30 -0.502   29 0.4051   32  0.990   32 -0.849   21 -0.155
BROWNS      3 13 248 400 -0.063  8.240   29 -0.552   29 -0.551   31 -0.512   30 0.4042   30  1.059   31 -0.778   25 -0.246
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      3 13 297 437 -0.056  8.229   30 -0.568   30 -0.569   28 -0.409   31 0.3933   14  1.242   27 -0.446   28 -0.373
PATRIOTS    3 13 266 401 -0.127  7.576   32 -0.605   32 -0.607   29 -0.429   32 0.3754   26  1.135   30 -0.602   26 -0.257

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     15  1 385 288  0.079  8.072    1  0.852    1  0.855    7  0.319    1 0.6442   27  1.123   10  0.131    3  0.507
CHARGERS   10  6 368 281  0.031  7.802   10  0.224   10  0.222    9  0.279   11 0.5377   29  1.072   13  0.029    2  0.529
BRONCOS     9  7 387 311  0.030  7.840   14  0.112   14  0.111   10  0.222   15 0.5166   23  1.194   11  0.124    5  0.319
RAIDERS     4 12 289 400 -0.010  8.424   24 -0.427   24 -0.420   23 -0.242   24 0.4310   20  1.210   23 -0.319   22 -0.165

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS      9  7 349 358 -0.022  7.925   15  0.102   15  0.100   20 -0.076   14 0.5177   17  1.226   20 -0.133   16 -0.020
COLTS       7  9 351 404 -0.070  7.816   22 -0.163   22 -0.145   22 -0.238   22 0.4678    7  1.402   18 -0.054   29 -0.421
JAGUARS     4 12 297 409 -0.139  7.691   28 -0.518   28 -0.519   26 -0.323   28 0.4054   16  1.232   24 -0.372   27 -0.274
TITANS      3 13 297 437 -0.056  8.229   30 -0.568   30 -0.569   28 -0.409   31 0.3933   14  1.242   27 -0.446   28 -0.373

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     11  5 483 351  0.178  8.610    7  0.392    7  0.393    3  0.531    6 0.5818    4  1.507    3  0.867    9  0.195
STEELERS   10  6 363 328  0.033  8.020   11  0.221   11  0.222   15  0.034    8 0.5446   22  1.201   19 -0.054   13  0.123
BENGALS     8  8 453 417 -0.070  7.422   18 -0.060   18 -0.065   14  0.099   18 0.4915    1  1.627    6  0.619   30 -0.422
BROWNS      3 13 248 400 -0.063  8.240   29 -0.552   29 -0.551   31 -0.512   30 0.4042   30  1.059   31 -0.778   25 -0.246

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      13  3 509 345  0.060  7.687    4  0.565    4  0.573    5  0.461    5 0.5935    2  1.578    2  0.905   15  0.016
DOLPHINS    8  8 325 332 -0.137  7.271   19 -0.079   19 -0.085   17 -0.005   21 0.4742   28  1.100   22 -0.221    8  0.212
JETS        4 12 306 384 -0.042  7.999   26 -0.469   26 -0.465   24 -0.265   27 0.4125   25  1.179   26 -0.382   20 -0.147
PATRIOTS    3 13 266 401 -0.127  7.576   32 -0.605   32 -0.607   29 -0.429   32 0.3754   26  1.135   30 -0.602   26 -0.257

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       10  6 342 356  0.093  8.550    8  0.279    8  0.280   12  0.104    9 0.5442   18  1.225   12  0.045   11  0.162
SEAHAWKS    9  7 345 343  0.071  8.347   12  0.136   12  0.137   13  0.103   13 0.5208   21  1.209   14  0.024   10  0.182
CARDINALS   7  9 353 355  0.105  8.591   17 -0.054   17 -0.056   16  0.018   17 0.4922   15  1.232   16 -0.030   14  0.067
49ERS       6  9 331 349  0.078  8.011   20 -0.111   21 -0.114   19 -0.071   20 0.4827   11  1.303   15 -0.026   19 -0.117

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  9  7 475 366  0.063  7.873   13  0.125   13  0.127    8  0.309   12 0.5303    5  1.505    4  0.643   17 -0.025
FALCONS     8  8 351 379  0.020  8.241   16  0.037   16  0.037   18 -0.046   16 0.5123   13  1.275   17 -0.037   18 -0.055
SAINTS      5 11 319 371 -0.131  7.569   23 -0.420   23 -0.409   27 -0.359   23 0.4405   24  1.181   28 -0.474   24 -0.244
PANTHERS    4 12 297 496 -0.112  8.083   27 -0.475   27 -0.471   32 -0.526   26 0.4166    8  1.380   25 -0.373   32 -0.679

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      13  2 493 299  0.182  7.799    2  0.732    2  0.724    1  0.605    2 0.6264    6  1.483    1  0.906    7  0.304
VIKINGS    14  2 423 301  0.029  7.667    3  0.677    3  0.691    6  0.347    3 0.6106   12  1.299    9  0.388    6  0.306
PACKERS    11  5 438 314  0.191  8.526    6  0.419    6  0.421    2  0.534    7 0.5776   10  1.343    5  0.634    4  0.434
BEARS       4 12 286 348  0.007  8.379   25 -0.448   25 -0.444   21 -0.215   25 0.4281   31  0.992   29 -0.559   12  0.129

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     13  3 443 290  0.017  7.413    5  0.537    5  0.543    4  0.474    4 0.5989   19  1.221    8  0.411    1  0.537
COMMANDERS 11  5 462 372 -0.080  7.159    9  0.267    9  0.265   11  0.137   10 0.5440    3  1.534    7  0.514   23 -0.239
COWBOYS     7  9 331 445 -0.069  8.094   21 -0.130   20 -0.110   25 -0.323   19 0.4854    9  1.364   21 -0.193   31 -0.452
GIANTS      3 13 260 395 -0.118  7.880   31 -0.598   31 -0.600   30 -0.502   29 0.4051   32  0.990   32 -0.849   21 -0.155

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  42 21 0.667    1  0.503
AFC WEST   38 26 0.594    2  0.210
NFC WEST   32 31 0.508    3  0.076
AFC NORTH  32 32 0.500    4  0.068
NFC EAST   34 30 0.531    5 -0.091
AFC EAST   28 36 0.438    6 -0.134
NFC SOUTH  26 38 0.406    7 -0.236
AFC SOUTH  23 41 0.359    8 -0.369

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.117 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 30 05:30:11 2024
games through: Sun Dec 29 2024

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