Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS     6  8 399 387 -0.106  6.388   22 -0.176   22 -0.183   17  0.000   21 0.4623    1  1.687    4  0.612   32 -0.611
BILLS      11  3 445 310  0.128  7.133    5  0.485    5  0.490    2  0.442    5 0.6035    2  1.580    1  0.884   15  0.001
RAVENS      9  5 418 332  0.127  7.335    8  0.261    8  0.255    6  0.300    7 0.5548    3  1.549    3  0.695   20 -0.095
BUCCANEERS  8  6 403 326  0.084  7.075   11  0.152   12  0.144    7  0.250   10 0.5351    4  1.518    5  0.597   21 -0.098
COMMANDERS  9  5 396 315 -0.108  6.097   13  0.136   13  0.139   12  0.115   16 0.5165    5  1.490    7  0.421   25 -0.192
LIONS      12  2 459 282  0.223  7.489    2  0.654    2  0.648    1  0.566    1 0.6370    6  1.459    2  0.826    5  0.306
COWBOYS     6  8 298 380 -0.123  6.697   20 -0.143   20 -0.147   25 -0.266   20 0.4685    7  1.382   18 -0.116   30 -0.417
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.202  7.606    6  0.417    6  0.421    3  0.401    6 0.5938    8  1.378    6  0.545    7  0.257
PANTHERS    3 11 247 418 -0.176  6.698   29 -0.510   29 -0.506   32 -0.489   30 0.3966    9  1.323   29 -0.422   31 -0.557
RAMS        8  6 310 338  0.123  7.687   10  0.191   10  0.185   16  0.046    9 0.5392   10  1.317   10  0.105   17 -0.014
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS     3 11 263 377 -0.032  7.294   28 -0.456   27 -0.449   26 -0.268   26 0.4127   11  1.287   24 -0.249   28 -0.288
FALCONS     7  7 293 342  0.026  7.329   17  0.037   17  0.041   23 -0.160   17 0.5149   12  1.276   20 -0.156   24 -0.164
TEXANS      9  5 328 300 -0.041  6.636    9  0.198    9  0.189   15  0.061   11 0.5343   13  1.272   13  0.060   13  0.062
SEAHAWKS    8  6 315 313  0.077  7.308   14  0.131   14  0.136   14  0.092   13 0.5290   14  1.270   12  0.088   10  0.097
49ERS       6  8 314 320  0.103  7.545   18 -0.051   18 -0.049   18 -0.012   18 0.4982   15  1.267   16 -0.020   16 -0.003
VIKINGS    12  2 369 252  0.005  6.541    3  0.540    3  0.547    5  0.317    3 0.6055   16  1.260    8  0.299    4  0.334
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.163  6.220   23 -0.305   23 -0.319   22 -0.152   23 0.4484   17  1.257   21 -0.174   22 -0.130
CARDINALS   7  7 314 306  0.169  7.785   16  0.081   16  0.087   13  0.103   15 0.5189   18  1.240   14  0.059    9  0.146
RAIDERS     2 12 245 376 -0.030  7.381   31 -0.550   31 -0.546   30 -0.365   29 0.4008   19  1.232   28 -0.419   29 -0.312
COLTS       6  8 280 329  0.068  7.521   19 -0.065   19 -0.064   20 -0.133   19 0.4849   20  1.228   22 -0.192   18 -0.073
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS        4 10 283 325 -0.032  6.936   25 -0.336   25 -0.349   21 -0.134   25 0.4217   21  1.227   23 -0.195   19 -0.074
TITANS      3 11 254 379  0.002  7.489   26 -0.426   26 -0.420   27 -0.331   27 0.4104   22  1.210   26 -0.414   27 -0.249
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.020  7.042   15  0.127   15  0.131    8  0.199   14 0.5234   23  1.200   11  0.103    6  0.294
STEELERS   10  4 336 265 -0.056  6.396    7  0.278    7  0.270   11  0.124    8 0.5503   24  1.197   15  0.024    8  0.224
BROWNS      3 11 239 356 -0.068  7.098   27 -0.454   28 -0.449   29 -0.344   28 0.4074   25  1.170   30 -0.478   26 -0.210
EAGLES     12  2 369 247 -0.011  6.408    4  0.522    4  0.529    4  0.365    4 0.6039   26  1.157    9  0.215    1  0.515
DOLPHINS    6  8 276 312 -0.096  6.714   21 -0.148   21 -0.153   19 -0.112   22 0.4623   27  1.119   25 -0.310   11  0.086
PATRIOTS    3 11 238 337 -0.167  6.298   30 -0.517   30 -0.513   28 -0.341   32 0.3770   28  1.113   31 -0.546   23 -0.136
CHIEFS     13  1 329 259  0.005  6.705    1  0.690    1  0.686    9  0.168    2 0.6298   29  1.101   17 -0.052    3  0.388
BEARS       4 10 266 308 -0.001  7.225   24 -0.323   24 -0.335   24 -0.169   24 0.4377   30  1.079   27 -0.416   12  0.078
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.009  7.299   12  0.149   11  0.155   10  0.139   12 0.5332   31  1.050   19 -0.144    2  0.421
GIANTS      2 12 208 328 -0.097  7.002   32 -0.586   32 -0.585   31 -0.437   31 0.3839   32  0.861   32 -0.932   14  0.058

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAIDERS     2 12 245 376 -0.030  7.381   31 -0.550   31 -0.546   30 -0.365   29 0.4008   19  1.232   28 -0.419   29 -0.312
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.020  7.042   15  0.127   15  0.131    8  0.199   14 0.5234   23  1.200   11  0.103    6  0.294
CHIEFS     13  1 329 259  0.005  6.705    1  0.690    1  0.686    9  0.168    2 0.6298   29  1.101   17 -0.052    3  0.388
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.009  7.299   12  0.149   11  0.155   10  0.139   12 0.5332   31  1.050   19 -0.144    2  0.421

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS     3 11 263 377 -0.032  7.294   28 -0.456   27 -0.449   26 -0.268   26 0.4127   11  1.287   24 -0.249   28 -0.288
TEXANS      9  5 328 300 -0.041  6.636    9  0.198    9  0.189   15  0.061   11 0.5343   13  1.272   13  0.060   13  0.062
COLTS       6  8 280 329  0.068  7.521   19 -0.065   19 -0.064   20 -0.133   19 0.4849   20  1.228   22 -0.192   18 -0.073
TITANS      3 11 254 379  0.002  7.489   26 -0.426   26 -0.420   27 -0.331   27 0.4104   22  1.210   26 -0.414   27 -0.249

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS     6  8 399 387 -0.106  6.388   22 -0.176   22 -0.183   17  0.000   21 0.4623    1  1.687    4  0.612   32 -0.611
RAVENS      9  5 418 332  0.127  7.335    8  0.261    8  0.255    6  0.300    7 0.5548    3  1.549    3  0.695   20 -0.095
STEELERS   10  4 336 265 -0.056  6.396    7  0.278    7  0.270   11  0.124    8 0.5503   24  1.197   15  0.024    8  0.224
BROWNS      3 11 239 356 -0.068  7.098   27 -0.454   28 -0.449   29 -0.344   28 0.4074   25  1.170   30 -0.478   26 -0.210

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      11  3 445 310  0.128  7.133    5  0.485    5  0.490    2  0.442    5 0.6035    2  1.580    1  0.884   15  0.001
JETS        4 10 283 325 -0.032  6.936   25 -0.336   25 -0.349   21 -0.134   25 0.4217   21  1.227   23 -0.195   19 -0.074
DOLPHINS    6  8 276 312 -0.096  6.714   21 -0.148   21 -0.153   19 -0.112   22 0.4623   27  1.119   25 -0.310   11  0.086
PATRIOTS    3 11 238 337 -0.167  6.298   30 -0.517   30 -0.513   28 -0.341   32 0.3770   28  1.113   31 -0.546   23 -0.136

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS        8  6 310 338  0.123  7.687   10  0.191   10  0.185   16  0.046    9 0.5392   10  1.317   10  0.105   17 -0.014
SEAHAWKS    8  6 315 313  0.077  7.308   14  0.131   14  0.136   14  0.092   13 0.5290   14  1.270   12  0.088   10  0.097
49ERS       6  8 314 320  0.103  7.545   18 -0.051   18 -0.049   18 -0.012   18 0.4982   15  1.267   16 -0.020   16 -0.003
CARDINALS   7  7 314 306  0.169  7.785   16  0.081   16  0.087   13  0.103   15 0.5189   18  1.240   14  0.059    9  0.146

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  8  6 403 326  0.084  7.075   11  0.152   12  0.144    7  0.250   10 0.5351    4  1.518    5  0.597   21 -0.098
PANTHERS    3 11 247 418 -0.176  6.698   29 -0.510   29 -0.506   32 -0.489   30 0.3966    9  1.323   29 -0.422   31 -0.557
FALCONS     7  7 293 342  0.026  7.329   17  0.037   17  0.041   23 -0.160   17 0.5149   12  1.276   20 -0.156   24 -0.164
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.163  6.220   23 -0.305   23 -0.319   22 -0.152   23 0.4484   17  1.257   21 -0.174   22 -0.130

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      12  2 459 282  0.223  7.489    2  0.654    2  0.648    1  0.566    1 0.6370    6  1.459    2  0.826    5  0.306
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.202  7.606    6  0.417    6  0.421    3  0.401    6 0.5938    8  1.378    6  0.545    7  0.257
VIKINGS    12  2 369 252  0.005  6.541    3  0.540    3  0.547    5  0.317    3 0.6055   16  1.260    8  0.299    4  0.334
BEARS       4 10 266 308 -0.001  7.225   24 -0.323   24 -0.335   24 -0.169   24 0.4377   30  1.079   27 -0.416   12  0.078

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS  9  5 396 315 -0.108  6.097   13  0.136   13  0.139   12  0.115   16 0.5165    5  1.490    7  0.421   25 -0.192
COWBOYS     6  8 298 380 -0.123  6.697   20 -0.143   20 -0.147   25 -0.266   20 0.4685    7  1.382   18 -0.116   30 -0.417
EAGLES     12  2 369 247 -0.011  6.408    4  0.522    4  0.529    4  0.365    4 0.6039   26  1.157    9  0.215    1  0.515
GIANTS      2 12 208 328 -0.097  7.002   32 -0.586   32 -0.585   31 -0.437   31 0.3839   32  0.861   32 -0.932   14  0.058

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  38 18 0.679    1  0.505
NFC WEST   29 27 0.518    2  0.106
AFC WEST   33 25 0.569    3  0.089
AFC NORTH  28 28 0.500    4  0.035
NFC EAST   29 27 0.518    5 -0.097
AFC EAST   24 32 0.429    6 -0.111
NFC SOUTH  23 33 0.411    7 -0.244
AFC SOUTH  21 35 0.375    8 -0.281

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Dec 20 05:30:13 2024
games through: Thu Dec 19 2024

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