Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     7 3 318 253  0.092  5.012    7  0.246    8  0.240    5  0.243    8 0.5670    1  1.630    1  0.791   25 -0.306
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.273  5.904   16  0.003   16  0.008   12  0.143   15 0.5204    2  1.551    2  0.569   24 -0.283
BENGALS    4 6 270 262 -0.106  4.531   22 -0.171   22 -0.177   16 -0.006   21 0.4588    3  1.550    5  0.418   30 -0.430
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243  0.013  5.168   11  0.155   11  0.160   11  0.173   14 0.5280    4  1.463    4  0.467   22 -0.121
SEAHAWKS   4 5 210 221 -0.031  4.341   18 -0.081   18 -0.081   18 -0.037   18 0.4801    5  1.430   10  0.210   23 -0.283
JAGUARS    2 8 202 264 -0.061  5.018   31 -0.385   31 -0.370   23 -0.170   30 0.3982    6  1.416   15  0.056   28 -0.396
49ERS      5 4 233 202  0.089  4.608   14  0.088   14  0.089   13  0.126   13 0.5301    7  1.408    7  0.341   20 -0.090
COWBOYS    3 6 177 259  0.031  4.901   20 -0.142   20 -0.140   27 -0.247   20 0.4654    8  1.378   20 -0.075   29 -0.419
SAINTS     3 7 227 246 -0.121  4.709   25 -0.279   25 -0.292   25 -0.187   22 0.4523    9  1.375   18 -0.019   27 -0.354
RAIDERS    2 7 168 251 -0.093  4.654   28 -0.315   29 -0.317   31 -0.287   26 0.4230   10  1.368   22 -0.129   31 -0.445
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.206  5.581    9  0.187    9  0.198    9  0.187    9 0.5526   11  1.350    8  0.320   14  0.055
PACKERS    6 3 230 194  0.178  4.860    8  0.244    7  0.244   10  0.185    6 0.5744   12  1.349    9  0.317   15  0.054
BILLS      8 2 290 193 -0.013  4.495    4  0.327    4  0.329    3  0.274    5 0.5751   13  1.348    6  0.404    9  0.144
LIONS      8 1 284 171  0.214  4.706    2  0.492    2  0.490    1  0.434    2 0.6459   14  1.344    3  0.559    7  0.309
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.269  4.481   29 -0.321   27 -0.308   32 -0.540   28 0.4093   15  1.330   27 -0.435   32 -0.645
TEXANS     6 4 224 226  0.097  5.309   10  0.159   10  0.165   15  0.041   12 0.5350   16  1.323   12  0.138   19 -0.055
TITANS     2 7 157 240 -0.024  4.757   26 -0.284   26 -0.296   29 -0.256   27 0.4119   17  1.295   23 -0.198   26 -0.313
FALCONS    6 4 238 236 -0.019  4.914   13  0.121   13  0.124   19 -0.042   11 0.5427   18  1.292   17  0.011   21 -0.096
COLTS      4 6 208 223  0.035  5.127   19 -0.103   19 -0.100   17 -0.030   19 0.4740   19  1.243   19 -0.042   17 -0.018
RAMS       4 5 185 217  0.071  4.829   17 -0.021   17 -0.022   20 -0.067   17 0.4994   20  1.230   21 -0.095   18 -0.038
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    7 2 221 157  0.117  4.515    3  0.330    3  0.333    4  0.247    3 0.5913   21  1.156   13  0.124    5  0.370
STEELERS   7 2 215 146 -0.002  4.120    6  0.282    6  0.279    7  0.223    4 0.5757   22  1.156   14  0.100    6  0.347
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.047  4.415    5  0.316    5  0.316    2  0.287    7 0.5732   23  1.154   11  0.161    4  0.413
CHIEFS     9 0 219 161  0.138  4.679    1  0.598    1  0.605    6  0.238    1 0.6712   24  1.095   16  0.038    3  0.438
JETS       3 7 177 214  0.078  5.368   23 -0.198   23 -0.203   21 -0.091   24 0.4429   25  1.090   24 -0.296   12  0.115
BROWNS     2 7 148 213 -0.157  4.252   30 -0.356   30 -0.346   28 -0.253   32 0.3901   26  1.047   29 -0.510   16  0.004
DOLPHINS   3 6 147 202 -0.103  4.378   24 -0.201   24 -0.208   24 -0.178   25 0.4303   27  1.011   28 -0.477   11  0.122
PATRIOTS   3 7 160 220 -0.207  4.324   27 -0.306   28 -0.309   26 -0.240   31 0.3936   28  0.975   31 -0.581   13  0.100
BEARS      4 5 175 167 -0.253  3.676   21 -0.156   21 -0.162   22 -0.163   23 0.4469   29  0.968   30 -0.512    8  0.187
BRONCOS    5 5 197 177  0.078  5.137   15  0.031   15  0.027   14  0.069   16 0.5114   30  0.935   25 -0.317    2  0.455
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.104  4.981   32 -0.401   32 -0.385   30 -0.279   29 0.3998   31  0.910   32 -0.693   10  0.134
CHARGERS   6 3 186 118 -0.043  3.908   12  0.140   12  0.142    8  0.213   10 0.5457   32  0.791   26 -0.328    1  0.754

AFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAIDERS    2 7 168 251 -0.093  4.654   28 -0.315   29 -0.317   31 -0.287   26 0.4230   10  1.368   22 -0.129   31 -0.445
CHIEFS     9 0 219 161  0.138  4.679    1  0.598    1  0.605    6  0.238    1 0.6712   24  1.095   16  0.038    3  0.438
BRONCOS    5 5 197 177  0.078  5.137   15  0.031   15  0.027   14  0.069   16 0.5114   30  0.935   25 -0.317    2  0.455
CHARGERS   6 3 186 118 -0.043  3.908   12  0.140   12  0.142    8  0.213   10 0.5457   32  0.791   26 -0.328    1  0.754

AFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS    2 8 202 264 -0.061  5.018   31 -0.385   31 -0.370   23 -0.170   30 0.3982    6  1.416   15  0.056   28 -0.396
TEXANS     6 4 224 226  0.097  5.309   10  0.159   10  0.165   15  0.041   12 0.5350   16  1.323   12  0.138   19 -0.055
TITANS     2 7 157 240 -0.024  4.757   26 -0.284   26 -0.296   29 -0.256   27 0.4119   17  1.295   23 -0.198   26 -0.313
COLTS      4 6 208 223  0.035  5.127   19 -0.103   19 -0.100   17 -0.030   19 0.4740   19  1.243   19 -0.042   17 -0.018

AFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     7 3 318 253  0.092  5.012    7  0.246    8  0.240    5  0.243    8 0.5670    1  1.630    1  0.791   25 -0.306
BENGALS    4 6 270 262 -0.106  4.531   22 -0.171   22 -0.177   16 -0.006   21 0.4588    3  1.550    5  0.418   30 -0.430
STEELERS   7 2 215 146 -0.002  4.120    6  0.282    6  0.279    7  0.223    4 0.5757   22  1.156   14  0.100    6  0.347
BROWNS     2 7 148 213 -0.157  4.252   30 -0.356   30 -0.346   28 -0.253   32 0.3901   26  1.047   29 -0.510   16  0.004

AFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      8 2 290 193 -0.013  4.495    4  0.327    4  0.329    3  0.274    5 0.5751   13  1.348    6  0.404    9  0.144
JETS       3 7 177 214  0.078  5.368   23 -0.198   23 -0.203   21 -0.091   24 0.4429   25  1.090   24 -0.296   12  0.115
DOLPHINS   3 6 147 202 -0.103  4.378   24 -0.201   24 -0.208   24 -0.178   25 0.4303   27  1.011   28 -0.477   11  0.122
PATRIOTS   3 7 160 220 -0.207  4.324   27 -0.306   28 -0.309   26 -0.240   31 0.3936   28  0.975   31 -0.581   13  0.100

NFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   4 5 210 221 -0.031  4.341   18 -0.081   18 -0.081   18 -0.037   18 0.4801    5  1.430   10  0.210   23 -0.283
49ERS      5 4 233 202  0.089  4.608   14  0.088   14  0.089   13  0.126   13 0.5301    7  1.408    7  0.341   20 -0.090
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.206  5.581    9  0.187    9  0.198    9  0.187    9 0.5526   11  1.350    8  0.320   14  0.055
RAMS       4 5 185 217  0.071  4.829   17 -0.021   17 -0.022   20 -0.067   17 0.4994   20  1.230   21 -0.095   18 -0.038

NFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.273  5.904   16  0.003   16  0.008   12  0.143   15 0.5204    2  1.551    2  0.569   24 -0.283
SAINTS     3 7 227 246 -0.121  4.709   25 -0.279   25 -0.292   25 -0.187   22 0.4523    9  1.375   18 -0.019   27 -0.354
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.269  4.481   29 -0.321   27 -0.308   32 -0.540   28 0.4093   15  1.330   27 -0.435   32 -0.645
FALCONS    6 4 238 236 -0.019  4.914   13  0.121   13  0.124   19 -0.042   11 0.5427   18  1.292   17  0.011   21 -0.096

NFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    6 3 230 194  0.178  4.860    8  0.244    7  0.244   10  0.185    6 0.5744   12  1.349    9  0.317   15  0.054
LIONS      8 1 284 171  0.214  4.706    2  0.492    2  0.490    1  0.434    2 0.6459   14  1.344    3  0.559    7  0.309
VIKINGS    7 2 221 157  0.117  4.515    3  0.330    3  0.333    4  0.247    3 0.5913   21  1.156   13  0.124    5  0.370
BEARS      4 5 175 167 -0.253  3.676   21 -0.156   21 -0.162   22 -0.163   23 0.4469   29  0.968   30 -0.512    8  0.187

NFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243  0.013  5.168   11  0.155   11  0.160   11  0.173   14 0.5280    4  1.463    4  0.467   22 -0.121
COWBOYS    3 6 177 259  0.031  4.901   20 -0.142   20 -0.140   27 -0.247   20 0.4654    8  1.378   20 -0.075   29 -0.419
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.047  4.415    5  0.316    5  0.316    2  0.287    7 0.5732   23  1.154   11  0.161    4  0.413
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.104  4.981   32 -0.401   32 -0.385   30 -0.279   29 0.3998   31  0.910   32 -0.693   10  0.134

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  25 11 0.694    1  0.439
AFC WEST   22 15 0.595    2  0.151
NFC WEST   19 18 0.514    3  0.115
AFC NORTH  20 18 0.526    4  0.091
NFC EAST   20 20 0.500    5 -0.056
AFC EAST   17 22 0.436    6 -0.168
AFC SOUTH  14 25 0.359    7 -0.248
NFC SOUTH  16 24 0.400    8 -0.282

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.097 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Nov 15 05:30:12 2024
games through: Thu Nov 14 2024

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