Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  59 26  9615  9032  0.045 41.329    4  0.512    4  0.487    3  0.473    4 0.5489   27  3.885   14  0.077    1  0.868
CELTICS       66 19 10206  9246  0.027 40.053    1  0.725    1  0.696    1  0.729    1 0.5640   15  3.966    2  0.741    2  0.717
MAGIC         49 37  9460  9257 -0.022 40.713   17  0.150   17  0.146   12  0.159   17 0.5130   30  3.876   24 -0.282    3  0.599
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.020 40.962    7  0.280    7  0.277    5  0.306    7 0.5255   24  3.909   17  0.028    4  0.583
HEAT          48 39  9537  9403 -0.010 41.766   18  0.111   18  0.110   13  0.153   18 0.5094   29  3.878   21 -0.277    5  0.583
NUGGETS       60 26  9853  9413  0.037 42.000    3  0.529    3  0.514    4  0.363    3 0.5498   20  3.936   11  0.225    6  0.502
THUNDER       60 25 10171  9508  0.056 41.538    2  0.554    2  0.531    2  0.565    2 0.5520    9  3.994    3  0.722    7  0.408
PELICANS      50 37  9916  9606  0.055 43.400    8  0.223    9  0.212    8  0.228    8 0.5220   19  3.939   13  0.104    8  0.351
CAVALIERS     50 36  9601  9440 -0.014 41.114   13  0.179   13  0.173   19  0.003   13 0.5164   25  3.908   22 -0.280    9  0.285
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.008 41.015   16  0.159   16  0.151   16  0.115   16 0.5133   18  3.950   15  0.044   10  0.187
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          49 36  9829  9632  0.040 42.194   10  0.214   10  0.207    9  0.217   10 0.5213   14  3.976    9  0.280   11  0.153
CLIPPERS      52 33  9773  9506  0.033 41.826    5  0.294    5  0.290   15  0.134    5 0.5298   16  3.963   12  0.129   12  0.139
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.058 42.363   12  0.190   12  0.182    7  0.236   12 0.5192   12  3.982    8  0.333   13  0.139
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.014 40.189   19  0.013   19  0.010   18  0.070   19 0.5014   17  3.953   18  0.015   14  0.124
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.040 40.163   20 -0.082   20 -0.087   20 -0.111   20 0.4902   21  3.930   23 -0.281   15  0.059
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.032 40.966   15  0.160   15  0.151   11  0.193   14 0.5156    8  4.000    7  0.380   16  0.005
MAVERICKS     52 33  9958  9775  0.031 41.990    6  0.283    6  0.283   10  0.208    6 0.5291    7  4.011    4  0.454   17 -0.039
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.037 39.648   23 -0.285   23 -0.292   23 -0.289   23 0.4702   23  3.925   26 -0.484   18 -0.093
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.022 40.977   24 -0.406   24 -0.403   25 -0.511   24 0.4601   28  3.882   29 -0.920   19 -0.102
LAKERS        50 38 10338 10280  0.056 44.621    9  0.218    8  0.217   14  0.137    9 0.5220    6  4.016    5  0.410   20 -0.137
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 35 10091  9881  0.001 40.967   11  0.206   11  0.200   17  0.115   11 0.5194    5  4.019    6  0.403   21 -0.173
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.010 41.716   27 -0.593   27 -0.597   29 -0.609   27 0.4445   26  3.898   30 -0.939   22 -0.280
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.004 41.568   26 -0.535   26 -0.545   22 -0.287   26 0.4475   11  3.986   20 -0.171   23 -0.403
PACERS        49 37 10559 10318  0.007 41.553   14  0.162   14  0.153    6  0.243   15 0.5154    1  4.095    1  0.938   24 -0.452
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.066 40.219   28 -0.622   28 -0.624   30 -0.672   28 0.4381   22  3.927   28 -0.858   25 -0.487
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.066 40.168   30 -0.862   30 -0.896   28 -0.604   30 0.4178   13  3.976   27 -0.540   26 -0.668
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.035 40.008   21 -0.181   21 -0.179   21 -0.204   21 0.4807    2  4.056   10  0.280   27 -0.689
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.014 41.559   22 -0.265   22 -0.268   24 -0.343   22 0.4743    4  4.036   16  0.033   28 -0.719
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.055 39.903   25 -0.497   25 -0.502   26 -0.591   25 0.4498   10  3.991   25 -0.450   29 -0.732
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.074 39.888   29 -0.836   29 -0.867   27 -0.596   29 0.4197    3  4.049   19 -0.150   30 -1.042
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          49 36  9829  9632  0.040 42.194   10  0.214   10  0.207    9  0.217   10 0.5213   14  3.976    9  0.280   11  0.153
CLIPPERS      52 33  9773  9506  0.033 41.826    5  0.294    5  0.290   15  0.134    5 0.5298   16  3.963   12  0.129   12  0.139
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.058 42.363   12  0.190   12  0.182    7  0.236   12 0.5192   12  3.982    8  0.333   13  0.139
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.032 40.966   15  0.160   15  0.151   11  0.193   14 0.5156    8  4.000    7  0.380   16  0.005
LAKERS        50 38 10338 10280  0.056 44.621    9  0.218    8  0.217   14  0.137    9 0.5220    6  4.016    5  0.410   20 -0.137

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  59 26  9615  9032  0.045 41.329    4  0.512    4  0.487    3  0.473    4 0.5489   27  3.885   14  0.077    1  0.868
NUGGETS       60 26  9853  9413  0.037 42.000    3  0.529    3  0.514    4  0.363    3 0.5498   20  3.936   11  0.225    6  0.502
THUNDER       60 25 10171  9508  0.056 41.538    2  0.554    2  0.531    2  0.565    2 0.5520    9  3.994    3  0.722    7  0.408
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.010 41.716   27 -0.593   27 -0.597   29 -0.609   27 0.4445   26  3.898   30 -0.939   22 -0.280
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.014 41.559   22 -0.265   22 -0.268   24 -0.343   22 0.4743    4  4.036   16  0.033   28 -0.719

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      50 37  9916  9606  0.055 43.400    8  0.223    9  0.212    8  0.228    8 0.5220   19  3.939   13  0.104    8  0.351
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.014 40.189   19  0.013   19  0.010   18  0.070   19 0.5014   17  3.953   18  0.015   14  0.124
MAVERICKS     52 33  9958  9775  0.031 41.990    6  0.283    6  0.283   10  0.208    6 0.5291    7  4.011    4  0.454   17 -0.039
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.022 40.977   24 -0.406   24 -0.403   25 -0.511   24 0.4601   28  3.882   29 -0.920   19 -0.102
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.004 41.568   26 -0.535   26 -0.545   22 -0.287   26 0.4475   11  3.986   20 -0.171   23 -0.403

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     50 36  9601  9440 -0.014 41.114   13  0.179   13  0.173   19  0.003   13 0.5164   25  3.908   22 -0.280    9  0.285
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.040 40.163   20 -0.082   20 -0.087   20 -0.111   20 0.4902   21  3.930   23 -0.281   15  0.059
BUCKS         50 35 10091  9881  0.001 40.967   11  0.206   11  0.200   17  0.115   11 0.5194    5  4.019    6  0.403   21 -0.173
PACERS        49 37 10559 10318  0.007 41.553   14  0.162   14  0.153    6  0.243   15 0.5154    1  4.095    1  0.938   24 -0.452
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.066 40.168   30 -0.862   30 -0.896   28 -0.604   30 0.4178   13  3.976   27 -0.540   26 -0.668

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         49 37  9460  9257 -0.022 40.713   17  0.150   17  0.146   12  0.159   17 0.5130   30  3.876   24 -0.282    3  0.599
HEAT          48 39  9537  9403 -0.010 41.766   18  0.111   18  0.110   13  0.153   18 0.5094   29  3.878   21 -0.277    5  0.583
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.066 40.219   28 -0.622   28 -0.624   30 -0.672   28 0.4381   22  3.927   28 -0.858   25 -0.487
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.035 40.008   21 -0.181   21 -0.179   21 -0.204   21 0.4807    2  4.056   10  0.280   27 -0.689
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.074 39.888   29 -0.836   29 -0.867   27 -0.596   29 0.4197    3  4.049   19 -0.150   30 -1.042

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       66 19 10206  9246  0.027 40.053    1  0.725    1  0.696    1  0.729    1 0.5640   15  3.966    2  0.741    2  0.717
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.020 40.962    7  0.280    7  0.277    5  0.306    7 0.5255   24  3.909   17  0.028    4  0.583
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.008 41.015   16  0.159   16  0.151   16  0.115   16 0.5133   18  3.950   15  0.044   10  0.187
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.037 39.648   23 -0.285   23 -0.292   23 -0.289   23 0.4702   23  3.925   26 -0.484   18 -0.093
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.055 39.903   25 -0.497   25 -0.502   26 -0.591   25 0.4498   10  3.991   25 -0.450   29 -0.732

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   244 181 0.574    1  0.186
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 189 0.550    2  0.120
ATLANTIC DIVISION  224 196 0.533    3  0.117
CENTRAL DIVISION   203 220 0.480    4 -0.070
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 192 226 0.459    5 -0.082
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 169 251 0.402    6 -0.292

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.183 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Apr 28 05:30:25 2024
games through: Sat Apr 27 2024

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