Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       22  6 3180 2880  0.086 13.956    2  0.628    2  0.626    1  0.650    1 0.5728   27  3.889    8  0.322    1  0.979
CAVALIERS     24  4 3404 3094 -0.097 11.959    1  0.671    1  0.668    2  0.508    2 0.5723    6  4.013    2  0.812   11  0.204
CELTICS       21  6 3226 2971 -0.045 12.310    3  0.512    3  0.507    4  0.472    3 0.5597   14  3.964    6  0.521    6  0.423
ROCKETS       18  9 3047 2872  0.103 13.769    4  0.371    4  0.368    5  0.403    4 0.5437   25  3.899   12  0.121    3  0.686
GRIZZLIES     19  9 3442 3163 -0.087 12.176    5  0.272    6  0.267    3  0.506    5 0.5342    2  4.042    1  0.960   14  0.053
MAVERICKS     17 10 3201 3044  0.049 13.328    6  0.272    5  0.271    7  0.344    6 0.5329    7  3.996    5  0.559   13  0.129
KNICKS        17 10 3159 2970 -0.010 12.707    7  0.215    7  0.215    6  0.379    7 0.5258   12  3.977    7  0.494    8  0.263
MAGIC         17 12 3097 3004  0.025 14.350    8  0.166    8  0.183   11  0.186    8 0.5211   30  3.831   25 -0.426    2  0.798
WARRIORS      14 12 2940 2889  0.134 13.949   10  0.153   10  0.176   14  0.122    9 0.5203   18  3.950   13  0.098   12  0.146
NUGGETS       14 11 2985 2922  0.094 13.103   11  0.145   11  0.163    8  0.203   10 0.5188    3  4.032    4  0.607   20 -0.202
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         15 12 3030 3002  0.067 13.954   12  0.140   12  0.159   13  0.130   11 0.5186   20  3.928   15 -0.004    9  0.263
CLIPPERS      16 12 3077 3006  0.065 14.320    9  0.160    9  0.177   10  0.199   12 0.5185   26  3.895   17 -0.102    5  0.500
LAKERS        15 12 3007 3085 -0.014 13.583   13  0.100   13  0.118   19 -0.184   13 0.5116   16  3.954   18 -0.190   18 -0.178
TIMBERWOLVES  14 12 2852 2772 -0.002 12.711   14  0.083   14  0.062    9  0.202   14 0.5077   29  3.866   21 -0.240    4  0.643
SUNS          14 12 2960 2974 -0.059 12.451   15  0.046   15  0.036   17 -0.091   15 0.5059    9  3.988   14  0.083   22 -0.264
HAWKS         14 14 3263 3339 -0.073 13.602   18 -0.019   18 -0.030   18 -0.168   16 0.4991    4  4.021   10  0.175   26 -0.512
BULLS         13 15 3326 3399  0.054 14.771   17  0.002   17 -0.020   16 -0.064   17 0.4985    1  4.084    3  0.618   29 -0.746
SPURS         14 13 3016 3062 -0.116 12.591   19 -0.020   19 -0.034   24 -0.215   18 0.4976   17  3.953   20 -0.224   21 -0.205
HEAT          13 12 2804 2737 -0.023 12.063   16  0.041   16  0.017   12  0.155   19 0.4966   24  3.909   16 -0.074    7  0.384
NETS          11 16 2963 3091  0.121 15.063   20 -0.064   20 -0.074   20 -0.189   20 0.4888   21  3.925   24 -0.340   15 -0.038
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         13 15 3250 3182 -0.110 12.643   22 -0.152   22 -0.160   15  0.041   21 0.4830   10  3.981    9  0.176   17 -0.095
PACERS        13 15 3210 3277 -0.100 13.272   21 -0.122   21 -0.130   23 -0.207   22 0.4797    5  4.019   11  0.127   27 -0.541
PISTONS       11 17 3106 3199 -0.005 14.220   23 -0.212   23 -0.215   21 -0.192   23 0.4726   19  3.933   22 -0.301   16 -0.083
TRAIL BLAZERS  9 18 2905 3141 -0.026 14.164   25 -0.314   25 -0.314   27 -0.482   24 0.4640   15  3.954   26 -0.485   24 -0.478
76ERS          9 16 2650 2749 -0.014 12.586   24 -0.278   24 -0.278   22 -0.195   25 0.4614   28  3.872   28 -0.609   10  0.220
JAZZ           6 20 2870 3127  0.034 13.911   27 -0.494   27 -0.491   28 -0.514   26 0.4439    8  3.989   23 -0.339   28 -0.689
RAPTORS        7 21 3127 3267  0.028 14.669   26 -0.493   26 -0.491   25 -0.251   27 0.4407   13  3.966   19 -0.192   23 -0.310
HORNETS        7 21 2985 3163 -0.027 14.225   28 -0.514   28 -0.513   26 -0.415   28 0.4380   23  3.910   29 -0.640   19 -0.190
WIZARDS        4 21 2694 3065  0.091 14.396   29 -0.615   29 -0.607   30 -0.730   29 0.4345   11  3.979   27 -0.606   30 -0.855
PELICANS       5 23 2950 3280 -0.040 14.746   30 -0.681   30 -0.677   29 -0.671   30 0.4311   22  3.918   30 -0.854   25 -0.487
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      14 12 2940 2889  0.134 13.949   10  0.153   10  0.176   14  0.122    9 0.5203   18  3.950   13  0.098   12  0.146
CLIPPERS      16 12 3077 3006  0.065 14.320    9  0.160    9  0.177   10  0.199   12 0.5185   26  3.895   17 -0.102    5  0.500
LAKERS        15 12 3007 3085 -0.014 13.583   13  0.100   13  0.118   19 -0.184   13 0.5116   16  3.954   18 -0.190   18 -0.178
SUNS          14 12 2960 2974 -0.059 12.451   15  0.046   15  0.036   17 -0.091   15 0.5059    9  3.988   14  0.083   22 -0.264
KINGS         13 15 3250 3182 -0.110 12.643   22 -0.152   22 -0.160   15  0.041   21 0.4830   10  3.981    9  0.176   17 -0.095

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       22  6 3180 2880  0.086 13.956    2  0.628    2  0.626    1  0.650    1 0.5728   27  3.889    8  0.322    1  0.979
NUGGETS       14 11 2985 2922  0.094 13.103   11  0.145   11  0.163    8  0.203   10 0.5188    3  4.032    4  0.607   20 -0.202
TIMBERWOLVES  14 12 2852 2772 -0.002 12.711   14  0.083   14  0.062    9  0.202   14 0.5077   29  3.866   21 -0.240    4  0.643
TRAIL BLAZERS  9 18 2905 3141 -0.026 14.164   25 -0.314   25 -0.314   27 -0.482   24 0.4640   15  3.954   26 -0.485   24 -0.478
JAZZ           6 20 2870 3127  0.034 13.911   27 -0.494   27 -0.491   28 -0.514   26 0.4439    8  3.989   23 -0.339   28 -0.689

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       18  9 3047 2872  0.103 13.769    4  0.371    4  0.368    5  0.403    4 0.5437   25  3.899   12  0.121    3  0.686
GRIZZLIES     19  9 3442 3163 -0.087 12.176    5  0.272    6  0.267    3  0.506    5 0.5342    2  4.042    1  0.960   14  0.053
MAVERICKS     17 10 3201 3044  0.049 13.328    6  0.272    5  0.271    7  0.344    6 0.5329    7  3.996    5  0.559   13  0.129
SPURS         14 13 3016 3062 -0.116 12.591   19 -0.020   19 -0.034   24 -0.215   18 0.4976   17  3.953   20 -0.224   21 -0.205
PELICANS       5 23 2950 3280 -0.040 14.746   30 -0.681   30 -0.677   29 -0.671   30 0.4311   22  3.918   30 -0.854   25 -0.487

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     24  4 3404 3094 -0.097 11.959    1  0.671    1  0.668    2  0.508    2 0.5723    6  4.013    2  0.812   11  0.204
BUCKS         15 12 3030 3002  0.067 13.954   12  0.140   12  0.159   13  0.130   11 0.5186   20  3.928   15 -0.004    9  0.263
BULLS         13 15 3326 3399  0.054 14.771   17  0.002   17 -0.020   16 -0.064   17 0.4985    1  4.084    3  0.618   29 -0.746
PACERS        13 15 3210 3277 -0.100 13.272   21 -0.122   21 -0.130   23 -0.207   22 0.4797    5  4.019   11  0.127   27 -0.541
PISTONS       11 17 3106 3199 -0.005 14.220   23 -0.212   23 -0.215   21 -0.192   23 0.4726   19  3.933   22 -0.301   16 -0.083

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         17 12 3097 3004  0.025 14.350    8  0.166    8  0.183   11  0.186    8 0.5211   30  3.831   25 -0.426    2  0.798
HAWKS         14 14 3263 3339 -0.073 13.602   18 -0.019   18 -0.030   18 -0.168   16 0.4991    4  4.021   10  0.175   26 -0.512
HEAT          13 12 2804 2737 -0.023 12.063   16  0.041   16  0.017   12  0.155   19 0.4966   24  3.909   16 -0.074    7  0.384
HORNETS        7 21 2985 3163 -0.027 14.225   28 -0.514   28 -0.513   26 -0.415   28 0.4380   23  3.910   29 -0.640   19 -0.190
WIZARDS        4 21 2694 3065  0.091 14.396   29 -0.615   29 -0.607   30 -0.730   29 0.4345   11  3.979   27 -0.606   30 -0.855

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       21  6 3226 2971 -0.045 12.310    3  0.512    3  0.507    4  0.472    3 0.5597   14  3.964    6  0.521    6  0.423
KNICKS        17 10 3159 2970 -0.010 12.707    7  0.215    7  0.215    6  0.379    7 0.5258   12  3.977    7  0.494    8  0.263
NETS          11 16 2963 3091  0.121 15.063   20 -0.064   20 -0.074   20 -0.189   20 0.4888   21  3.925   24 -0.340   15 -0.038
76ERS          9 16 2650 2749 -0.014 12.586   24 -0.278   24 -0.278   22 -0.195   25 0.4614   28  3.872   28 -0.609   10  0.220
RAPTORS        7 21 3127 3267  0.028 14.669   26 -0.493   26 -0.491   25 -0.251   27 0.4407   13  3.966   19 -0.192   23 -0.310

DIVISION            W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 73 64 0.533    1  0.116
ATLANTIC DIVISION  65 69 0.485    2  0.048
PACIFIC DIVISION   72 63 0.533    3  0.046
CENTRAL DIVISION   76 63 0.547    4  0.029
NORTHWEST DIVISION 65 67 0.492    5  0.008
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 55 80 0.407    6 -0.248

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.165 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.019 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 21 05:30:16 2024
games through: Fri Dec 20 2024

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