Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     37 19 6875 6483  0.001 27.184    4  0.359    4  0.351    4  0.390    4 0.5364    1  4.075    2  1.004   22 -0.223
NUGGETS       37 20 6913 6610 -0.006 27.766    6  0.322    6  0.320    5  0.322    7 0.5324    2  4.049    3  0.796   18 -0.151
BULLS         22 35 6608 6872 -0.055 28.342   23 -0.293   23 -0.284   26 -0.370   24 0.4698    3  4.046   12  0.088   29 -0.829
CAVALIERS     46 10 6877 6246 -0.003 26.247    2  0.749    1  0.756    2  0.705    2 0.5721    4  4.038    1  1.118    7  0.291
HAWKS         26 30 6528 6667 -0.023 28.185   20 -0.085   20 -0.083   19 -0.142   20 0.4916    5  4.023    9  0.193   26 -0.478
PACERS        31 23 6276 6240 -0.031 26.467   12  0.147   12  0.140   13  0.079   10 0.5157    6  4.009    7  0.338   21 -0.181
JAZZ          14 42 6295 6691  0.026 29.591   27 -0.542   27 -0.547   25 -0.365   27 0.4450    7  4.002   20 -0.139   28 -0.591
KINGS         28 28 6531 6513 -0.025 27.621   16 -0.015   16 -0.019   16 -0.051   16 0.4975    8  4.002   10  0.175   24 -0.276
KNICKS        37 19 6613 6327 -0.050 26.287    7  0.314    7  0.311    8  0.217    5 0.5329    9  3.993    6  0.394   13  0.040
WIZARDS        9 46 5963 6691 -0.008 29.463   30 -0.794   30 -0.803   30 -0.786   30 0.4238   10  3.980   27 -0.675   30 -0.897
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     31 26 6591 6459  0.061 29.489   10  0.162    9  0.153   11  0.136   12 0.5133   11  3.978    8  0.236   14  0.037
SUNS          27 29 6343 6446 -0.040 27.639   18 -0.070   18 -0.068   20 -0.165   18 0.4936   12  3.971   19 -0.098   23 -0.231
PELICANS      13 43 6185 6680  0.002 29.702   29 -0.618   28 -0.623   28 -0.486   28 0.4395   13  3.968   25 -0.439   27 -0.533
SPURS         24 30 6104 6185 -0.008 27.242   21 -0.122   21 -0.125   18 -0.113   21 0.4864   14  3.966   18 -0.075   19 -0.151
BUCKS         32 24 6374 6275 -0.053 26.732   14  0.116   14  0.109   15  0.058   13 0.5122   15  3.964   13  0.085   15  0.031
PISTONS       30 26 6371 6330 -0.030 27.441   15  0.053   15  0.048   12  0.107   15 0.5076   16  3.957   11  0.099   11  0.116
RAPTORS       17 39 6192 6528  0.060 30.344   26 -0.396   26 -0.397   24 -0.296   26 0.4613   17  3.956   23 -0.306   25 -0.286
LAKERS        34 21 6220 6151 -0.012 27.275    8  0.257    8  0.256   10  0.145    8 0.5260   18  3.946   14  0.081    8  0.209
TRAIL BLAZERS 24 33 6249 6512 -0.001 29.344   22 -0.178   22 -0.169   21 -0.169   22 0.4817   19  3.946   22 -0.235   17 -0.104
CELTICS       40 16 6571 6052  0.018 27.112    3  0.484    3  0.475    3  0.597    3 0.5504   20  3.938    5  0.495    2  0.699
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      29 27 6287 6247  0.074 29.569   13  0.118   13  0.110   14  0.061   14 0.5093   21  3.938   17 -0.046   10  0.167
THUNDER       45 11 6574 5869  0.056 27.584    1  0.754    2  0.754    1  0.831    1 0.5724   22  3.927    4  0.672    1  0.989
76ERS         20 36 6099 6327 -0.025 28.244   25 -0.335   25 -0.334   23 -0.258   25 0.4657   23  3.922   26 -0.444   16 -0.072
ROCKETS       35 22 6436 6214  0.097 30.046    5  0.326    5  0.323    7  0.246    6 0.5325   24  3.916   15  0.033    6  0.459
HEAT          26 28 5942 5979 -0.015 26.972   17 -0.051   17 -0.052   17 -0.094   17 0.4956   25  3.899   24 -0.395    9  0.207
TIMBERWOLVES  31 26 6360 6175  0.078 29.840    9  0.164   11  0.149    6  0.308    9 0.5162   26  3.898   16  0.002    3  0.615
CLIPPERS      31 24 6102 5949  0.023 27.650   11  0.162   10  0.152    9  0.192   11 0.5147   27  3.890   21 -0.154    4  0.538
HORNETS       14 41 5828 6179 -0.086 26.938   28 -0.617   29 -0.625   29 -0.516   29 0.4381   28  3.887   28 -0.874   20 -0.157
NETS          21 35 5873 6207 -0.028 28.533   24 -0.297   24 -0.286   27 -0.409   23 0.4705   29  3.862   29 -0.893   12  0.075
MAGIC         28 30 6042 6118 -0.044 28.496   19 -0.073   19 -0.073   22 -0.206   19 0.4935   30  3.812   30 -0.931    5  0.518
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         28 28 6531 6513 -0.025 27.621   16 -0.015   16 -0.019   16 -0.051   16 0.4975    8  4.002   10  0.175   24 -0.276
SUNS          27 29 6343 6446 -0.040 27.639   18 -0.070   18 -0.068   20 -0.165   18 0.4936   12  3.971   19 -0.098   23 -0.231
LAKERS        34 21 6220 6151 -0.012 27.275    8  0.257    8  0.256   10  0.145    8 0.5260   18  3.946   14  0.081    8  0.209
WARRIORS      29 27 6287 6247  0.074 29.569   13  0.118   13  0.110   14  0.061   14 0.5093   21  3.938   17 -0.046   10  0.167
CLIPPERS      31 24 6102 5949  0.023 27.650   11  0.162   10  0.152    9  0.192   11 0.5147   27  3.890   21 -0.154    4  0.538

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       37 20 6913 6610 -0.006 27.766    6  0.322    6  0.320    5  0.322    7 0.5324    2  4.049    3  0.796   18 -0.151
JAZZ          14 42 6295 6691  0.026 29.591   27 -0.542   27 -0.547   25 -0.365   27 0.4450    7  4.002   20 -0.139   28 -0.591
TRAIL BLAZERS 24 33 6249 6512 -0.001 29.344   22 -0.178   22 -0.169   21 -0.169   22 0.4817   19  3.946   22 -0.235   17 -0.104
THUNDER       45 11 6574 5869  0.056 27.584    1  0.754    2  0.754    1  0.831    1 0.5724   22  3.927    4  0.672    1  0.989
TIMBERWOLVES  31 26 6360 6175  0.078 29.840    9  0.164   11  0.149    6  0.308    9 0.5162   26  3.898   16  0.002    3  0.615

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     37 19 6875 6483  0.001 27.184    4  0.359    4  0.351    4  0.390    4 0.5364    1  4.075    2  1.004   22 -0.223
MAVERICKS     31 26 6591 6459  0.061 29.489   10  0.162    9  0.153   11  0.136   12 0.5133   11  3.978    8  0.236   14  0.037
PELICANS      13 43 6185 6680  0.002 29.702   29 -0.618   28 -0.623   28 -0.486   28 0.4395   13  3.968   25 -0.439   27 -0.533
SPURS         24 30 6104 6185 -0.008 27.242   21 -0.122   21 -0.125   18 -0.113   21 0.4864   14  3.966   18 -0.075   19 -0.151
ROCKETS       35 22 6436 6214  0.097 30.046    5  0.326    5  0.323    7  0.246    6 0.5325   24  3.916   15  0.033    6  0.459

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         22 35 6608 6872 -0.055 28.342   23 -0.293   23 -0.284   26 -0.370   24 0.4698    3  4.046   12  0.088   29 -0.829
CAVALIERS     46 10 6877 6246 -0.003 26.247    2  0.749    1  0.756    2  0.705    2 0.5721    4  4.038    1  1.118    7  0.291
PACERS        31 23 6276 6240 -0.031 26.467   12  0.147   12  0.140   13  0.079   10 0.5157    6  4.009    7  0.338   21 -0.181
BUCKS         32 24 6374 6275 -0.053 26.732   14  0.116   14  0.109   15  0.058   13 0.5122   15  3.964   13  0.085   15  0.031
PISTONS       30 26 6371 6330 -0.030 27.441   15  0.053   15  0.048   12  0.107   15 0.5076   16  3.957   11  0.099   11  0.116

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         26 30 6528 6667 -0.023 28.185   20 -0.085   20 -0.083   19 -0.142   20 0.4916    5  4.023    9  0.193   26 -0.478
WIZARDS        9 46 5963 6691 -0.008 29.463   30 -0.794   30 -0.803   30 -0.786   30 0.4238   10  3.980   27 -0.675   30 -0.897
HEAT          26 28 5942 5979 -0.015 26.972   17 -0.051   17 -0.052   17 -0.094   17 0.4956   25  3.899   24 -0.395    9  0.207
HORNETS       14 41 5828 6179 -0.086 26.938   28 -0.617   29 -0.625   29 -0.516   29 0.4381   28  3.887   28 -0.874   20 -0.157
MAGIC         28 30 6042 6118 -0.044 28.496   19 -0.073   19 -0.073   22 -0.206   19 0.4935   30  3.812   30 -0.931    5  0.518

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KNICKS        37 19 6613 6327 -0.050 26.287    7  0.314    7  0.311    8  0.217    5 0.5329    9  3.993    6  0.394   13  0.040
RAPTORS       17 39 6192 6528  0.060 30.344   26 -0.396   26 -0.397   24 -0.296   26 0.4613   17  3.956   23 -0.306   25 -0.286
CELTICS       40 16 6571 6052  0.018 27.112    3  0.484    3  0.475    3  0.597    3 0.5504   20  3.938    5  0.495    2  0.699
76ERS         20 36 6099 6327 -0.025 28.244   25 -0.335   25 -0.334   23 -0.258   25 0.4657   23  3.922   26 -0.444   16 -0.072
NETS          21 35 5873 6207 -0.028 28.533   24 -0.297   24 -0.286   27 -0.409   23 0.4705   29  3.862   29 -0.893   12  0.075

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 151 132 0.534    1  0.166
CENTRAL DIVISION   161 118 0.577    2  0.100
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 140 140 0.500    3  0.076
PACIFIC DIVISION   149 129 0.536    4  0.051
ATLANTIC DIVISION  135 145 0.482    5 -0.033
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 103 175 0.371    6 -0.372

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.147 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Feb 23 05:30:17 2025
games through: Sat Feb 22 2025

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