Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     45 32 9381 9024  0.029 38.089   11  0.218   11  0.212    9  0.216   11 0.5210    1  4.069    3  0.777   22 -0.345
BULLS         35 42 9056 9234 -0.020 38.277   21 -0.123   21 -0.120   19 -0.084   20 0.4887    2  4.053    7  0.390   27 -0.558
HAWKS         36 40 8953 9086 -0.011 37.927   17 -0.060   17 -0.060   18 -0.075   17 0.4939    3  4.047    8  0.369   26 -0.520
NUGGETS       47 31 9415 9122  0.023 38.632    7  0.253    8  0.250   10  0.211    8 0.5249    4  4.043    4  0.636   18 -0.213
CAVALIERS     62 15 9413 8642  0.014 36.558    2  0.766    2  0.773    2  0.611    2 0.5708    5  4.035    1  0.990    9  0.233
PACERS        46 31 9040 8864 -0.035 36.839   12  0.197   12  0.194   11  0.203   12 0.5196    6  4.009    5  0.445   16 -0.040
JAZZ          16 62 8692 9407 -0.011 40.307   29 -0.730   30 -0.733   28 -0.660   30 0.4309    7  3.999   24 -0.471   29 -0.850
SPURS         32 45 8779 8980  0.003 38.962   23 -0.193   23 -0.189   23 -0.193   23 0.4803    8  3.993   19 -0.035   24 -0.351
KINGS         37 40 8918 8898 -0.003 38.166   16 -0.043   16 -0.047   16 -0.030   16 0.4946    9  3.986   15  0.095   17 -0.155
MAVERICKS     38 40 8942 8981  0.029 39.723   15  0.005   15  0.007   21 -0.146   15 0.4994   10  3.986   18 -0.026   20 -0.266
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          35 42 8797 8986  0.000 38.859   19 -0.102   19 -0.100   22 -0.165   19 0.4897   11  3.984   20 -0.051   21 -0.279
WIZARDS       17 60 8357 9289 -0.067 38.757   30 -0.735   29 -0.732   30 -0.820   29 0.4317   12  3.982   27 -0.719   30 -0.921
PISTONS       43 34 8884 8708 -0.002 37.699   14  0.123   14  0.120    8  0.257   14 0.5133   13  3.973    9  0.312   10  0.201
PELICANS      21 56 8470 9145 -0.004 40.023   27 -0.549   27 -0.549   27 -0.551   27 0.4480   14  3.968   25 -0.522   28 -0.581
BUCKS         43 34 8826 8662  0.004 37.899   13  0.137   13  0.133   13  0.157   13 0.5142   15  3.967   13  0.180   13  0.135
KNICKS        48 28 8823 8508 -0.018 36.359    5  0.288    5  0.289   12  0.191    5 0.5286   16  3.961   11  0.187   11  0.195
THUNDER       64 14 9342 8354  0.087 38.937    1  0.872    1  0.880    1  0.907    1 0.5792   17  3.960    2  0.896    1  0.917
76ERS         23 54 8440 8919 -0.040 38.578   26 -0.507   26 -0.507   26 -0.508   26 0.4509   18  3.947   26 -0.585   25 -0.431
LAKERS        47 30 8719 8648 -0.005 38.002    8  0.248    7  0.256   14  0.086    7 0.5249   19  3.947   17  0.007   12  0.165
RAPTORS       28 50 8625 8989 -0.031 39.046   24 -0.361   24 -0.361   24 -0.321   24 0.4659   20  3.947   23 -0.401   19 -0.241
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      46 31 8768 8535  0.045 38.952    6  0.267    6  0.268    7  0.271    6 0.5258   21  3.943   14  0.175    8  0.367
TRAIL BLAZERS 34 44 8652 8910  0.011 39.865   22 -0.141   22 -0.136   17 -0.074   22 0.4864   22  3.941   21 -0.182   14  0.035
CELTICS       57 20 8992 8304  0.022 37.126    3  0.585    3  0.584    3  0.583    3 0.5570   23  3.933    6  0.432    3  0.735
ROCKETS       51 27 8929 8506  0.061 39.276    4  0.408    4  0.403    6  0.395    4 0.5391   24  3.924   10  0.203    6  0.587
TIMBERWOLVES  45 32 8781 8422  0.060 38.972    9  0.242    9  0.233    4  0.411    9 0.5238   25  3.917   12  0.183    4  0.638
HORNETS       19 58 8125 8761 -0.080 37.860   28 -0.673   28 -0.673   29 -0.690   28 0.4360   26  3.894   30 -1.032   23 -0.348
CLIPPERS      45 32 8640 8317  0.046 38.609   10  0.233   10  0.227    5  0.399   10 0.5222   27  3.893   16  0.053    2  0.746
HEAT          35 42 8455 8455 -0.008 38.113   20 -0.114   20 -0.115   15  0.013   21 0.4886   28  3.883   22 -0.387    7  0.413
NETS          25 52 8086 8605 -0.029 39.004   25 -0.433   25 -0.425   25 -0.500   25 0.4584   29  3.867   29 -0.977   15 -0.024
MAGIC         38 40 8196 8235 -0.057 37.362   18 -0.077   18 -0.078   20 -0.096   18 0.4924   30  3.818   28 -0.809    5  0.618
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         37 40 8918 8898 -0.003 38.166   16 -0.043   16 -0.047   16 -0.030   16 0.4946    9  3.986   15  0.095   17 -0.155
SUNS          35 42 8797 8986  0.000 38.859   19 -0.102   19 -0.100   22 -0.165   19 0.4897   11  3.984   20 -0.051   21 -0.279
LAKERS        47 30 8719 8648 -0.005 38.002    8  0.248    7  0.256   14  0.086    7 0.5249   19  3.947   17  0.007   12  0.165
WARRIORS      46 31 8768 8535  0.045 38.952    6  0.267    6  0.268    7  0.271    6 0.5258   21  3.943   14  0.175    8  0.367
CLIPPERS      45 32 8640 8317  0.046 38.609   10  0.233   10  0.227    5  0.399   10 0.5222   27  3.893   16  0.053    2  0.746

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       47 31 9415 9122  0.023 38.632    7  0.253    8  0.250   10  0.211    8 0.5249    4  4.043    4  0.636   18 -0.213
JAZZ          16 62 8692 9407 -0.011 40.307   29 -0.730   30 -0.733   28 -0.660   30 0.4309    7  3.999   24 -0.471   29 -0.850
THUNDER       64 14 9342 8354  0.087 38.937    1  0.872    1  0.880    1  0.907    1 0.5792   17  3.960    2  0.896    1  0.917
TRAIL BLAZERS 34 44 8652 8910  0.011 39.865   22 -0.141   22 -0.136   17 -0.074   22 0.4864   22  3.941   21 -0.182   14  0.035
TIMBERWOLVES  45 32 8781 8422  0.060 38.972    9  0.242    9  0.233    4  0.411    9 0.5238   25  3.917   12  0.183    4  0.638

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     45 32 9381 9024  0.029 38.089   11  0.218   11  0.212    9  0.216   11 0.5210    1  4.069    3  0.777   22 -0.345
SPURS         32 45 8779 8980  0.003 38.962   23 -0.193   23 -0.189   23 -0.193   23 0.4803    8  3.993   19 -0.035   24 -0.351
MAVERICKS     38 40 8942 8981  0.029 39.723   15  0.005   15  0.007   21 -0.146   15 0.4994   10  3.986   18 -0.026   20 -0.266
PELICANS      21 56 8470 9145 -0.004 40.023   27 -0.549   27 -0.549   27 -0.551   27 0.4480   14  3.968   25 -0.522   28 -0.581
ROCKETS       51 27 8929 8506  0.061 39.276    4  0.408    4  0.403    6  0.395    4 0.5391   24  3.924   10  0.203    6  0.587

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         35 42 9056 9234 -0.020 38.277   21 -0.123   21 -0.120   19 -0.084   20 0.4887    2  4.053    7  0.390   27 -0.558
CAVALIERS     62 15 9413 8642  0.014 36.558    2  0.766    2  0.773    2  0.611    2 0.5708    5  4.035    1  0.990    9  0.233
PACERS        46 31 9040 8864 -0.035 36.839   12  0.197   12  0.194   11  0.203   12 0.5196    6  4.009    5  0.445   16 -0.040
PISTONS       43 34 8884 8708 -0.002 37.699   14  0.123   14  0.120    8  0.257   14 0.5133   13  3.973    9  0.312   10  0.201
BUCKS         43 34 8826 8662  0.004 37.899   13  0.137   13  0.133   13  0.157   13 0.5142   15  3.967   13  0.180   13  0.135

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 40 8953 9086 -0.011 37.927   17 -0.060   17 -0.060   18 -0.075   17 0.4939    3  4.047    8  0.369   26 -0.520
WIZARDS       17 60 8357 9289 -0.067 38.757   30 -0.735   29 -0.732   30 -0.820   29 0.4317   12  3.982   27 -0.719   30 -0.921
HORNETS       19 58 8125 8761 -0.080 37.860   28 -0.673   28 -0.673   29 -0.690   28 0.4360   26  3.894   30 -1.032   23 -0.348
HEAT          35 42 8455 8455 -0.008 38.113   20 -0.114   20 -0.115   15  0.013   21 0.4886   28  3.883   22 -0.387    7  0.413
MAGIC         38 40 8196 8235 -0.057 37.362   18 -0.077   18 -0.078   20 -0.096   18 0.4924   30  3.818   28 -0.809    5  0.618

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KNICKS        48 28 8823 8508 -0.018 36.359    5  0.288    5  0.289   12  0.191    5 0.5286   16  3.961   11  0.187   11  0.195
76ERS         23 54 8440 8919 -0.040 38.578   26 -0.507   26 -0.507   26 -0.508   26 0.4509   18  3.947   26 -0.585   25 -0.431
RAPTORS       28 50 8625 8989 -0.031 39.046   24 -0.361   24 -0.361   24 -0.321   24 0.4659   20  3.947   23 -0.401   19 -0.241
CELTICS       57 20 8992 8304  0.022 37.126    3  0.585    3  0.584    3  0.583    3 0.5570   23  3.933    6  0.432    3  0.735
NETS          25 52 8086 8605 -0.029 39.004   25 -0.433   25 -0.425   25 -0.500   25 0.4584   29  3.867   29 -0.977   15 -0.024

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   229 156 0.595    1  0.192
NORTHWEST DIVISION 206 183 0.530    2  0.159
PACIFIC DIVISION   210 175 0.545    3  0.100
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 187 200 0.483    4 -0.001
ATLANTIC DIVISION  181 204 0.470    5 -0.090
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 145 240 0.377    6 -0.365

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.143 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Apr  5 05:30:20 2025
games through: Fri Apr  4 2025

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