Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        49 37 10559 10318  0.008 41.532   14  0.160   14  0.154    7  0.244   15 0.5155    1  4.094    1  0.936   24 -0.447
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.034 39.995   21 -0.182   21 -0.177   21 -0.203   21 0.4808    2  4.056   10  0.278   27 -0.684
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.072 39.874   29 -0.835   29 -0.865   27 -0.595   29 0.4198    3  4.048   19 -0.153   30 -1.038
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.015 41.548   22 -0.266   22 -0.267   24 -0.342   22 0.4744    4  4.035   16  0.030   28 -0.715
BUCKS         50 35 10091  9881  0.002 40.947   11  0.206   11  0.200   17  0.115   11 0.5195    5  4.019    5  0.400   21 -0.169
LAKERS        49 38 10219 10172  0.056 44.066   10  0.209   10  0.205   15  0.120   10 0.5206    6  4.016    6  0.391   20 -0.151
MAVERICKS     52 33  9958  9775  0.033 41.974    6  0.286    6  0.284   10  0.209    6 0.5292    7  4.011    4  0.452   17 -0.034
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.033 40.945   15  0.157   16  0.152   11  0.194   14 0.5157    8  4.000    7  0.378   16  0.010
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.051 40.880    3  0.542    3  0.518    2  0.530    3 0.5509    9  3.997    3  0.704    8  0.356
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.054 39.890   25 -0.497   25 -0.500   26 -0.590   25 0.4499   10  3.991   25 -0.452   29 -0.728
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.006 41.557   26 -0.535   26 -0.543   22 -0.286   26 0.4476   11  3.986   20 -0.173   23 -0.399
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.060 42.360   13  0.190   13  0.184    8  0.237   12 0.5193   12  3.982    8  0.331   12  0.144
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.064 40.159   30 -0.861   30 -0.894   28 -0.603   30 0.4179   13  3.976   27 -0.542   26 -0.664
SUNS          49 36  9829  9632  0.041 42.170    9  0.218    9  0.208    9  0.218    9 0.5214   14  3.976    9  0.279   11  0.157
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.024 39.461    1  0.707    1  0.685    1  0.704    1 0.5631   15  3.969    2  0.729    2  0.679
CLIPPERS      52 33  9773  9506  0.034 41.817    5  0.296    5  0.291   13  0.136    5 0.5299   16  3.962   13  0.128   13  0.144
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.015 40.173   19  0.011   19  0.012   18  0.071   19 0.5015   17  3.953   18  0.013   14  0.128
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.007 41.012   16  0.157   15  0.152   16  0.117   16 0.5134   18  3.949   15  0.042   10  0.192
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.052 42.690    8  0.236    8  0.224    6  0.261    8 0.5233   19  3.943   12  0.153    7  0.368
NUGGETS       60 25  9745  9294  0.035 41.357    2  0.545    2  0.532    4  0.384    2 0.5514   20  3.936   11  0.244    6  0.525
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.039 40.156   20 -0.082   20 -0.085   20 -0.110   20 0.4903   21  3.930   23 -0.283   15  0.064
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.065 40.201   28 -0.622   28 -0.622   30 -0.672   28 0.4382   22  3.927   28 -0.861   25 -0.483
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.036 39.634   23 -0.285   23 -0.290   23 -0.288   23 0.4703   23  3.925   26 -0.487   18 -0.089
CAVALIERS     50 35  9512  9328 -0.016 40.436   12  0.191   12  0.185   19  0.036   13 0.5177   24  3.909   22 -0.244    9  0.316
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.021 40.934    7  0.282    7  0.277    5  0.306    7 0.5256   25  3.908   17  0.026    4  0.587
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.009 41.699   27 -0.592   27 -0.595   29 -0.608   27 0.4446   26  3.898   30 -0.941   22 -0.276
TIMBERWOLVES  59 26  9615  9032  0.046 41.313    4  0.514    4  0.488    3  0.474    4 0.5490   27  3.885   14  0.076    1  0.873
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.021 40.968   24 -0.405   24 -0.401   25 -0.510   24 0.4602   28  3.882   29 -0.922   19 -0.099
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.015 41.000   18  0.119   18  0.120   12  0.180   18 0.5104   29  3.881   21 -0.238    3  0.597
MAGIC         48 37  9348  9168 -0.020 40.292   17  0.136   17  0.136   14  0.126   17 0.5119   30  3.877   24 -0.313    5  0.564
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        49 38 10219 10172  0.056 44.066   10  0.209   10  0.205   15  0.120   10 0.5206    6  4.016    6  0.391   20 -0.151
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.033 40.945   15  0.157   16  0.152   11  0.194   14 0.5157    8  4.000    7  0.378   16  0.010
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.060 42.360   13  0.190   13  0.184    8  0.237   12 0.5193   12  3.982    8  0.331   12  0.144
SUNS          49 36  9829  9632  0.041 42.170    9  0.218    9  0.208    9  0.218    9 0.5214   14  3.976    9  0.279   11  0.157
CLIPPERS      52 33  9773  9506  0.034 41.817    5  0.296    5  0.291   13  0.136    5 0.5299   16  3.962   13  0.128   13  0.144

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.015 41.548   22 -0.266   22 -0.267   24 -0.342   22 0.4744    4  4.035   16  0.030   28 -0.715
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.051 40.880    3  0.542    3  0.518    2  0.530    3 0.5509    9  3.997    3  0.704    8  0.356
NUGGETS       60 25  9745  9294  0.035 41.357    2  0.545    2  0.532    4  0.384    2 0.5514   20  3.936   11  0.244    6  0.525
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.009 41.699   27 -0.592   27 -0.595   29 -0.608   27 0.4446   26  3.898   30 -0.941   22 -0.276
TIMBERWOLVES  59 26  9615  9032  0.046 41.313    4  0.514    4  0.488    3  0.474    4 0.5490   27  3.885   14  0.076    1  0.873

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     52 33  9958  9775  0.033 41.974    6  0.286    6  0.284   10  0.209    6 0.5292    7  4.011    4  0.452   17 -0.034
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.006 41.557   26 -0.535   26 -0.543   22 -0.286   26 0.4476   11  3.986   20 -0.173   23 -0.399
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.015 40.173   19  0.011   19  0.012   18  0.071   19 0.5015   17  3.953   18  0.013   14  0.128
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.052 42.690    8  0.236    8  0.224    6  0.261    8 0.5233   19  3.943   12  0.153    7  0.368
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.021 40.968   24 -0.405   24 -0.401   25 -0.510   24 0.4602   28  3.882   29 -0.922   19 -0.099

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        49 37 10559 10318  0.008 41.532   14  0.160   14  0.154    7  0.244   15 0.5155    1  4.094    1  0.936   24 -0.447
BUCKS         50 35 10091  9881  0.002 40.947   11  0.206   11  0.200   17  0.115   11 0.5195    5  4.019    5  0.400   21 -0.169
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.064 40.159   30 -0.861   30 -0.894   28 -0.603   30 0.4179   13  3.976   27 -0.542   26 -0.664
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.039 40.156   20 -0.082   20 -0.085   20 -0.110   20 0.4903   21  3.930   23 -0.283   15  0.064
CAVALIERS     50 35  9512  9328 -0.016 40.436   12  0.191   12  0.185   19  0.036   13 0.5177   24  3.909   22 -0.244    9  0.316

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.034 39.995   21 -0.182   21 -0.177   21 -0.203   21 0.4808    2  4.056   10  0.278   27 -0.684
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.072 39.874   29 -0.835   29 -0.865   27 -0.595   29 0.4198    3  4.048   19 -0.153   30 -1.038
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.065 40.201   28 -0.622   28 -0.622   30 -0.672   28 0.4382   22  3.927   28 -0.861   25 -0.483
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.015 41.000   18  0.119   18  0.120   12  0.180   18 0.5104   29  3.881   21 -0.238    3  0.597
MAGIC         48 37  9348  9168 -0.020 40.292   17  0.136   17  0.136   14  0.126   17 0.5119   30  3.877   24 -0.313    5  0.564

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.054 39.890   25 -0.497   25 -0.500   26 -0.590   25 0.4499   10  3.991   25 -0.452   29 -0.728
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.024 39.461    1  0.707    1  0.685    1  0.704    1 0.5631   15  3.969    2  0.729    2  0.679
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.007 41.012   16  0.157   15  0.152   16  0.117   16 0.5134   18  3.949   15  0.042   10  0.192
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.036 39.634   23 -0.285   23 -0.290   23 -0.288   23 0.4703   23  3.925   26 -0.487   18 -0.089
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.021 40.934    7  0.282    7  0.277    5  0.306    7 0.5256   25  3.908   17  0.026    4  0.587

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   243 181 0.573    1  0.185
NORTHWEST DIVISION 230 188 0.550    2  0.120
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 196 0.532    3  0.115
CENTRAL DIVISION   203 219 0.481    4 -0.065
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 192 225 0.460    5 -0.077
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 168 250 0.402    6 -0.292

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.183 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Apr 27 05:30:24 2024
games through: Fri Apr 26 2024

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