Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.025 39.467    1  0.707    1  0.686    1  0.708    1 0.5632   15  3.969    2  0.731    2  0.684
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.052 40.876    2  0.535    3  0.518    2  0.532    2 0.5510    9  3.997    3  0.703    9  0.360
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.043 40.704    4  0.494    4  0.476    3  0.452    4 0.5479   27  3.883   14  0.042    1  0.861
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.033 40.775    3  0.528    2  0.521    4  0.377    3 0.5503   20  3.938   11  0.241    5  0.513
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.017 40.270    6  0.294    6  0.291    5  0.323    7 0.5271   25  3.906   15  0.030    3  0.617
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.053 42.691    8  0.237    8  0.225    6  0.262    8 0.5234   19  3.943   13  0.152    8  0.373
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.010 41.065   15  0.150   15  0.143    7  0.247   15 0.5144    1  4.097    1  0.953   24 -0.459
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.039 41.525    9  0.231    9  0.222    8  0.245    9 0.5228   14  3.974    9  0.295   10  0.194
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.062 42.373   13  0.193   13  0.185    9  0.239   12 0.5195   12  3.982    8  0.330   12  0.148
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.951   14  0.161   14  0.154   10  0.195   14 0.5159    8  3.999    7  0.376   16  0.013
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.033 41.476    7  0.274    7  0.274   11  0.194    6 0.5280    7  4.015    4  0.457   17 -0.070
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.014 40.993   18  0.122   18  0.121   12  0.181   18 0.5105   29  3.881   22 -0.238    4  0.600
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.032 41.178    5  0.305    5  0.306   13  0.152    5 0.5313   16  3.966   12  0.164   13  0.141
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.055 43.496   10  0.224   10  0.220   14  0.131   10 0.5219    6  4.017    6  0.407   20 -0.145
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.001 40.326   11  0.220   11  0.214   15  0.116   11 0.5209    5  4.022    5  0.416   21 -0.184
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.007 40.495   16  0.146   16  0.140   16  0.101   16 0.5122   18  3.947   17  0.014   11  0.188
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.018 39.749   12  0.205   12  0.198   17  0.096   13 0.5191   24  3.909   21 -0.182    7  0.375
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.017 40.177   19  0.014   19  0.013   18  0.072   19 0.5016   17  3.952   18  0.012   14  0.132
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.020 39.903   17  0.126   17  0.126   19  0.065   17 0.5107   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.502
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.038 40.160   20 -0.080   20 -0.084   20 -0.109   20 0.4905   21  3.930   23 -0.284   15  0.067
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 39.992   21 -0.181   21 -0.176   21 -0.203   21 0.4809    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.682
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.007 41.555   26 -0.536   26 -0.541   22 -0.286   26 0.4477   11  3.986   20 -0.175   23 -0.397
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.035 39.635   23 -0.284   23 -0.289   23 -0.288   23 0.4704   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.087
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.017 41.549   22 -0.265   22 -0.265   24 -0.342   22 0.4745    4  4.035   16  0.028   28 -0.712
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.020 40.967   24 -0.405   24 -0.400   25 -0.511   24 0.4603   28  3.882   29 -0.925   19 -0.096
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.892   25 -0.498   25 -0.499   26 -0.591   25 0.4500   10  3.991   25 -0.454   29 -0.727
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.071 39.872   29 -0.837   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4199    3  4.048   19 -0.154   30 -1.036
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.063 40.155   30 -0.864   30 -0.893   28 -0.604   30 0.4180   13  3.976   27 -0.545   26 -0.663
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.008 41.700   27 -0.593   27 -0.594   29 -0.609   27 0.4447   26  3.898   30 -0.944   22 -0.274
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.064 40.190   28 -0.623   28 -0.621   30 -0.672   28 0.4383   22  3.927   28 -0.863   25 -0.482
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.039 41.525    9  0.231    9  0.222    8  0.245    9 0.5228   14  3.974    9  0.295   10  0.194
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.062 42.373   13  0.193   13  0.185    9  0.239   12 0.5195   12  3.982    8  0.330   12  0.148
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.951   14  0.161   14  0.154   10  0.195   14 0.5159    8  3.999    7  0.376   16  0.013
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.032 41.178    5  0.305    5  0.306   13  0.152    5 0.5313   16  3.966   12  0.164   13  0.141
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.055 43.496   10  0.224   10  0.220   14  0.131   10 0.5219    6  4.017    6  0.407   20 -0.145

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.052 40.876    2  0.535    3  0.518    2  0.532    2 0.5510    9  3.997    3  0.703    9  0.360
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.043 40.704    4  0.494    4  0.476    3  0.452    4 0.5479   27  3.883   14  0.042    1  0.861
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.033 40.775    3  0.528    2  0.521    4  0.377    3 0.5503   20  3.938   11  0.241    5  0.513
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.017 41.549   22 -0.265   22 -0.265   24 -0.342   22 0.4745    4  4.035   16  0.028   28 -0.712
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.008 41.700   27 -0.593   27 -0.594   29 -0.609   27 0.4447   26  3.898   30 -0.944   22 -0.274

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.053 42.691    8  0.237    8  0.225    6  0.262    8 0.5234   19  3.943   13  0.152    8  0.373
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.033 41.476    7  0.274    7  0.274   11  0.194    6 0.5280    7  4.015    4  0.457   17 -0.070
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.017 40.177   19  0.014   19  0.013   18  0.072   19 0.5016   17  3.952   18  0.012   14  0.132
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.007 41.555   26 -0.536   26 -0.541   22 -0.286   26 0.4477   11  3.986   20 -0.175   23 -0.397
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.020 40.967   24 -0.405   24 -0.400   25 -0.511   24 0.4603   28  3.882   29 -0.925   19 -0.096

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.010 41.065   15  0.150   15  0.143    7  0.247   15 0.5144    1  4.097    1  0.953   24 -0.459
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.001 40.326   11  0.220   11  0.214   15  0.116   11 0.5209    5  4.022    5  0.416   21 -0.184
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.018 39.749   12  0.205   12  0.198   17  0.096   13 0.5191   24  3.909   21 -0.182    7  0.375
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.038 40.160   20 -0.080   20 -0.084   20 -0.109   20 0.4905   21  3.930   23 -0.284   15  0.067
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.063 40.155   30 -0.864   30 -0.893   28 -0.604   30 0.4180   13  3.976   27 -0.545   26 -0.663

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.014 40.993   18  0.122   18  0.121   12  0.181   18 0.5105   29  3.881   22 -0.238    4  0.600
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.020 39.903   17  0.126   17  0.126   19  0.065   17 0.5107   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.502
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 39.992   21 -0.181   21 -0.176   21 -0.203   21 0.4809    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.682
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.071 39.872   29 -0.837   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4199    3  4.048   19 -0.154   30 -1.036
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.064 40.190   28 -0.623   28 -0.621   30 -0.672   28 0.4383   22  3.927   28 -0.863   25 -0.482

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.025 39.467    1  0.707    1  0.686    1  0.708    1 0.5632   15  3.969    2  0.731    2  0.684
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.017 40.270    6  0.294    6  0.291    5  0.323    7 0.5271   25  3.906   15  0.030    3  0.617
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.007 40.495   16  0.146   16  0.140   16  0.101   16 0.5122   18  3.947   17  0.014   11  0.188
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.035 39.635   23 -0.284   23 -0.289   23 -0.288   23 0.4704   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.087
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.892   25 -0.498   25 -0.499   26 -0.591   25 0.4500   10  3.991   25 -0.454   29 -0.727

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   243 178 0.577    1  0.192
NORTHWEST DIVISION 228 188 0.548    2  0.117
ATLANTIC DIVISION  222 195 0.532    3  0.116
CENTRAL DIVISION   202 217 0.482    4 -0.057
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 191 225 0.459    5 -0.078
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 167 250 0.400    6 -0.297

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.181 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 25 05:30:20 2024
games through: Wed Apr 24 2024

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