Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arkansas Baptist        12 21 2336 2510 -0.296    1 -0.696    1 -0.781    1 -0.774    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.623    1 -0.805    1 -0.744
Bunker Hill CC           4  0  368  306 -3.319    2 -1.937    2 -2.051    6 -2.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.359    2 -1.496    9 -3.526
World Harvest Bible      6  8 1036 1057 -2.097    3 -2.346    4 -2.481    3 -2.219    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.359    3 -2.222    4 -2.217
Keystone                 8 18 1674 1828 -1.859    4 -2.410    3 -2.476    4 -2.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.391    8 -2.820    2 -1.692
La Sierra                5 20 1612 2036 -1.604    5 -2.460    5 -2.544    5 -2.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.107    6 -2.607    5 -2.382
Williamson Trade         9  5 1021  876 -2.739    6 -2.591    6 -2.700    2 -2.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.757    5 -2.582    3 -1.723
New Hampshire Tech      19  6 2084 1789 -3.608    7 -2.727    7 -2.912    7 -2.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.029    4 -2.386    8 -3.472
Central Maine CC        20  8 2185 1882 -3.675    8 -2.900    8 -3.154    8 -3.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.622    9 -3.062    7 -3.314
Christendom              9 11 1409 1505 -3.247    9 -2.946    9 -3.228   11 -3.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.144   13 -3.476   13 -3.790
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 13 1658 1715 -3.166   10 -2.997   10 -3.302   10 -3.370    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.164   10 -3.126   11 -3.615
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern Maine CC       17 10 1844 1816 -3.779   11 -2.998   11 -3.304   13 -3.694    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.091   18 -4.241    6 -3.147
Taylor-Fort Wayne        9 13 1731 1869 -3.102   12 -3.008   12 -3.316   14 -3.712    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.079   12 -3.209   16 -4.216
Golden St Baptist        4 10 1059 1101 -3.094   13 -3.267   13 -3.758    9 -3.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.309    7 -2.622   14 -3.824
Maine-Augusta           10 11 1513 1589 -3.844   14 -3.336   14 -3.776   17 -4.081    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.204   14 -3.938   17 -4.223
Hesser                  10 10 1437 1404 -3.962   15 -3.433   15 -3.937   16 -3.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.002   15 -4.014   12 -3.783
Eastern Maine CC         9 10 1366 1274 -3.892   16 -3.558   16 -4.038   15 -3.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.471   17 -4.125   10 -3.604
Paul Smith's             6 13 1409 1539 -3.410   17 -3.621   17 -4.139   12 -3.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.330   11 -3.175   15 -4.118
Vermont Tech             6 14 1274 1499 -4.453   18 -3.945   18 -4.881   19 -5.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.073   21 -5.401   18 -4.646
MassBay CC               5 10 1099 1154 -4.809   19 -4.121   19 -5.287   18 -4.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.501   19 -4.547   20 -5.185
Unity                    2 14 1034 1309 -4.408   20 -4.203   20 -5.450   21 -5.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  1.200   20 -5.363   21 -5.382
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     4  8  991 1052 -5.077   21 -4.228   21 -5.501   20 -5.078    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  1.073   16 -4.015   23 -6.141
Warren Wilson            0 19  833 1560 -3.639   22 -4.311   22 -5.669   23 -6.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.767   23 -7.427   19 -4.881
Northern Maine CC        0 12  677 1037 -4.613   23 -4.603   23 -6.179   22 -6.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  0.093   22 -6.210   22 -5.978


USCAA-II: strength=-3.519 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arkansas Baptist        12 21 2336 2510 -0.296    1 -0.696    1 -0.781    1 -0.774    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.623    1 -0.805    1 -0.744
Bunker Hill CC           4  0  368  306 -3.319    2 -1.937    2 -2.051    6 -2.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.359    2 -1.496    9 -3.526
Temple Baptist          17 11 2414 2293 -2.431      -2.107      -2.228      -2.268      0.0000      0.0000       7.948      -1.365      -3.170
World Harvest Bible      6  8 1036 1057 -2.097    3 -2.346    4 -2.481    3 -2.219    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.359    3 -2.222    4 -2.217
Keystone                 8 18 1674 1828 -1.859    4 -2.410    3 -2.476    4 -2.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.391    8 -2.820    2 -1.692
La Sierra                5 20 1612 2036 -1.604    5 -2.460    5 -2.544    5 -2.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.107    6 -2.607    5 -2.382
Williamson Trade         9  5 1021  876 -2.739    6 -2.591    6 -2.700    2 -2.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.757    5 -2.582    3 -1.723
New Hampshire Tech      19  6 2084 1789 -3.608    7 -2.727    7 -2.912    7 -2.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.029    4 -2.386    8 -3.472
Central Maine CC        20  8 2185 1882 -3.675    8 -2.900    8 -3.154    8 -3.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.622    9 -3.062    7 -3.314
Christendom              9 11 1409 1505 -3.247    9 -2.946    9 -3.228   11 -3.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.144   13 -3.476   13 -3.790
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 13 1658 1715 -3.166   10 -2.997   10 -3.302   10 -3.370    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.164   10 -3.126   11 -3.615
Southern Maine CC       17 10 1844 1816 -3.779   11 -2.998   11 -3.304   13 -3.694    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.091   18 -4.241    6 -3.147
Taylor-Fort Wayne        9 13 1731 1869 -3.102   12 -3.008   12 -3.316   14 -3.712    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.079   12 -3.209   16 -4.216
Golden St Baptist        4 10 1059 1101 -3.094   13 -3.267   13 -3.758    9 -3.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.309    7 -2.622   14 -3.824
Maine-Augusta           10 11 1513 1589 -3.844   14 -3.336   14 -3.776   17 -4.081    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.204   14 -3.938   17 -4.223
Hesser                  10 10 1437 1404 -3.962   15 -3.433   15 -3.937   16 -3.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.002   15 -4.014   12 -3.783
Eastern Maine CC         9 10 1366 1274 -3.892   16 -3.558   16 -4.038   15 -3.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.471   17 -4.125   10 -3.604
Paul Smith's             6 13 1409 1539 -3.410   17 -3.621   17 -4.139   12 -3.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.330   11 -3.175   15 -4.118
Vermont Tech             6 14 1274 1499 -4.453   18 -3.945   18 -4.881   19 -5.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.073   21 -5.401   18 -4.646
MassBay CC               5 10 1099 1154 -4.809   19 -4.121   19 -5.287   18 -4.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.501   19 -4.547   20 -5.185
Unity                    2 14 1034 1309 -4.408   20 -4.203   20 -5.450   21 -5.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  1.200   20 -5.363   21 -5.382
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     4  8  991 1052 -5.077   21 -4.228   21 -5.501   20 -5.078    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  1.073   16 -4.015   23 -6.141
Warren Wilson            0 19  833 1560 -3.639   22 -4.311   22 -5.669   23 -6.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.767   23 -7.427   19 -4.881
Northern Maine CC        0 12  677 1037 -4.613   23 -4.603   23 -6.179   22 -6.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  0.093   22 -6.210   22 -5.978

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                 W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-II                 201 275 0.422    1 -3.519

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.333 points in main ratings
     0.033 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:29 2019

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