Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Crichton                16 11 2387 2305 -0.825    1 -0.648    1 -0.731    1 -0.861    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.714    1  0.365    4 -2.087
Tennessee Temple        13 16 2136 2153 -0.837    2 -1.002    2 -1.049    2 -0.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.441    3 -1.096    1 -0.783
Central Baptist         11 21 2439 2660 -0.775    3 -1.151    3 -1.210    3 -1.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.580    2 -0.624    2 -1.704
Pensacola Christian      8 17 1888 1928 -1.631    4 -1.789    4 -1.855    4 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.095    4 -1.261    3 -1.878


NCCAA-I-Central: strength=-1.170 (#8)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MidAmerica Nazarene     26 11 3027 2829 -0.146       0.547       0.380       0.089      0.0000      0.0000      17.930       0.798      -0.620
Louisiana College       12 13 1997 1987 -0.714      -0.697      -0.783      -0.758      0.0000      0.0000      13.570      -0.217      -1.300
York NE                 11 12 1764 1762 -1.060      -0.977      -1.017      -1.073      0.0000      0.0000      12.390      -0.711      -1.436
SW Assem of God          5 12 1318 1503 -0.876      -1.121      -1.176      -1.046      0.0000      0.0000      11.570      -0.280      -1.812
Central Baptist         11 21 2439 2660 -0.775    3 -1.151    3 -1.210    3 -1.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.580    2 -0.624    2 -1.704
LeTourneau               6 19 1992 2160 -0.846      -1.459      -1.566      -1.212      0.0000      0.0000      10.145      -0.296      -2.127
Oklahoma Wesleyan        7 24 2026 2376 -1.005      -1.576      -1.696      -1.599      0.0000      0.0000       9.652      -1.947      -1.251
Central Christian KS     5 24 2166 2482 -1.469      -2.245      -2.350      -2.014      0.0000      0.0000       7.754      -1.425      -2.603

NCCAA-I-East: strength=-0.395 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Geneva                  19 11 2407 2156 -0.303       0.035      -0.069       0.154      0.0000      0.0000      16.432       0.449      -0.142
Mt Vernon Nazarene      23 12 2700 2546 -0.472       0.013      -0.078      -0.185      0.0000      0.0000      16.238      -0.078      -0.292
Malone                  16 14 2410 2252 -0.382      -0.299      -0.394      -0.244      0.0000      0.0000      15.123       0.239      -0.727
Roberts Wesleyan        13 16 2217 2294 -0.322      -0.392      -0.467      -0.543      0.0000      0.0000      14.660      -0.000      -1.086
Houghton                 7 16 1612 1825 -0.816      -1.144      -1.203      -1.266      0.0000      0.0000      11.498      -1.171      -1.361

NCCAA-I-MidEast: strength=-0.804 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Union TN                23 11 2659 2487 -0.000       0.616       0.447       0.222      0.0000      0.0000      18.150       0.272       0.172
Oakland City            19 11 2392 2149 -0.563       0.039      -0.064      -0.264      0.0000      0.0000      16.266      -0.129      -0.400
Crichton                16 11 2387 2305 -0.825    1 -0.648    1 -0.731    1 -0.861    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.714    1  0.365    4 -2.087
Asbury                  19 18 2777 2654 -1.390      -1.287      -1.357      -1.227      0.0000      0.0000      10.951      -1.408      -1.046
Ohio Valley              3 26 2016 2418 -0.330      -1.337      -1.417      -1.086      0.0000      0.0000      10.899      -1.007      -1.166
Bryan                   13 21 2511 2601 -1.176      -1.355      -1.436      -1.287      0.0000      0.0000      10.438      -0.910      -1.665

NCCAA-I-MidWest: strength=-0.234 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Taylor                  26  8 2395 2011  0.018       0.826       0.647       0.598      0.0000      0.0000      18.955      -0.355       1.551
Cedarville              26 10 3123 2796  0.007       0.703       0.548       0.445      0.0000      0.0000      18.512       1.435      -0.546
Huntington IN           26  9 2721 2384 -0.077       0.647       0.480       0.423      0.0000      0.0000      18.324       0.293       0.552
Indiana Wesleyan        11 19 2188 2306 -0.326      -0.581      -0.659      -0.697      0.0000      0.0000      14.073      -0.599      -0.795
Grace IN                10 19 2123 2261 -0.424      -0.705      -0.792      -0.709      0.0000      0.0000      13.499      -0.597      -0.821
Spring Arbor            14 19 2531 2412 -0.570      -0.805      -0.878      -0.479      0.0000      0.0000      13.323      -0.503      -0.455
Concordia MI             7 21 1906 2214 -0.664      -1.181      -1.246      -1.345      0.0000      0.0000      11.221      -1.493      -1.198

NCCAA-I-North Central: strength=-0.804 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Trinity CT              22  5 2120 1817 -0.557       0.347       0.219       0.024      0.0000      0.0000      17.516      -0.024       0.071
Bethel IN               23 14 3238 2990 -0.271       0.134       0.004      -0.084      0.0000      0.0000      16.582       1.037      -1.206
Olivet Nazarene          9 15 1780 1801 -0.448      -0.676      -0.759      -0.533      0.0000      0.0000      13.885      -0.590      -0.477
Greenville              18  8 2261 2118 -1.462      -0.768      -0.848      -1.151      0.0000      0.0000      13.145       0.038      -2.340
Northwestern MN         13 13 1862 1827 -0.991      -0.975      -1.016      -0.848      0.0000      0.0000      12.581      -1.139      -0.558
Trinity Int'l           10 24 2386 2654 -0.943      -1.369      -1.452      -1.333      0.0000      0.0000      10.345      -1.423      -1.244
Judson IL                4 26 2106 2443 -0.984      -1.972      -2.076      -1.699      0.0000      0.0000       8.434      -1.417      -1.980

NCCAA-I-Northwest: strength=-0.468 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Northwest Nazarene      11 16 2041 2101  0.889       0.814       0.635       0.657      0.0000      0.0000      18.895       0.982       0.333
Western Baptist         18 14 2713 2545 -0.017       0.170       0.044       0.191      0.0000      0.0000      16.714       1.029      -0.648
Northwest WA            14 18 2306 2365 -0.159      -0.255      -0.348      -0.321      0.0000      0.0000      15.078      -0.599      -0.044
Warner Pacific           8 23 2158 2372 -0.150      -0.790      -0.862      -0.694      0.0000      0.0000      13.276      -0.866      -0.521
Cascade                  6 25 2274 2476 -0.233      -1.161      -1.221      -0.827      0.0000      0.0000      11.612      -0.596      -1.058
Walla Walla              3 21 1805 2264 -2.025      -2.792      -3.016      -2.773      0.0000      0.0000       5.818      -1.788      -3.757

NCCAA-I-South: strength=-0.836 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Faulkner                17 14 2215 2207  0.080       0.313       0.179      -0.002      0.0000      0.0000      17.228      -0.152       0.149
Southern Wesleyan       14 15 2010 2086 -0.270      -0.187      -0.275      -0.472      0.0000      0.0000      15.566      -0.670      -0.273
Lee TN                  14 19 2678 2734 -0.176      -0.271      -0.366      -0.326      0.0000      0.0000      15.139       0.476      -1.129
Emmanuel GA             11 22 2469 2658 -0.358      -0.631      -0.713      -0.644      0.0000      0.0000      13.925      -0.201      -1.087
North Greenville         7 18 1815 1977 -0.500      -0.910      -0.961      -0.840      0.0000      0.0000      12.947      -0.496      -1.184
Tennessee Temple        13 16 2136 2153 -0.837    2 -1.002    2 -1.049    2 -0.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.441    3 -1.096    1 -0.783
Piedmont                 9 17 1766 1948 -1.324      -1.501      -1.612      -1.689      0.0000      0.0000       9.830      -1.786      -1.592
Pensacola Christian      8 17 1888 1928 -1.631    4 -1.789    4 -1.855    4 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.095    4 -1.261    3 -1.878

NCCAA-I-West: strength=0.355 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
The Master's Coll       20 11 2386 2165  0.667       1.268       0.935       1.027      0.0000      0.0000      20.198       1.071       0.983
Christian Heritage      19 15 2701 2639  0.524       0.819       0.640       0.581      0.0000      0.0000      18.883       1.254      -0.091
Hope Int'l               2 27 2026 2463  0.121      -1.250      -1.314      -0.765      0.0000      0.0000      11.255      -0.430      -1.100

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                 W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I-West              41  53 0.436    1  0.355
NCCAA-I-MidWest          120 105 0.533    2 -0.234
NCCAA-I-East              78  69 0.531    3 -0.395
NCCAA-I-Northwest         60 117 0.339    4 -0.468
NCCAA-I-North Central     99 105 0.485    5 -0.804
NCCAA-I-MidEast           93  98 0.487    6 -0.804
NCCAA-I-South             93 138 0.403    7 -0.836
NCCAA-I-Central           83 136 0.379    8 -1.170

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.333 points in main ratings
     0.033 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:29 2019

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