Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             35  1 3145 2225  0.960    1  2.662    1  2.376    1  2.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 26.249    1  1.960    1  2.673
Brock                   28  5 2853 2302  0.421    2  1.638    2  1.299    3  1.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 22.898    5  1.318    3  1.321
Calgary                 29  7 3109 2653  0.426    3  1.533    3  1.203    5  1.118    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 22.398    4  1.344    6  0.892
Ryerson                 25 12 3038 2692  0.785    4  1.458    4  1.123    4  1.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 22.165    6  1.301    5  1.162
McGill                  24  6 2530 2026  0.489    5  1.442    5  1.112    2  1.526    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 22.247    2  1.435    2  1.617
Ottawa ON               24  8 2586 2253  0.492    6  1.413    6  1.081    6  1.032    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 21.938    9  0.887    4  1.177
Laurentian              21  8 2429 2241  0.385    7  1.279    7  0.935    9  0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 21.310    7  1.162   11  0.326
Alberta                 27  6 2846 2337 -0.020    8  1.142    8  0.787    7  0.832    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 20.959   10  0.786    7  0.878
Dalhousie               27  6 2795 2361 -0.121    9  1.062    9  0.717   10  0.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 20.621   17  0.422    8  0.598
UBC                     25  6 2874 2365 -0.073   10  1.016   10  0.691    8  0.802    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 20.627    3  1.412   14  0.191
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Acadia                  22 11 2650 2526  0.132   11  0.904   11  0.592   13  0.302    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 20.042   18  0.383   12  0.221
Concordia QC            18 13 2361 2315  0.313   12  0.827   12  0.519   12  0.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 19.779   20  0.302   10  0.404
UNB                     24 10 2881 2670 -0.137   13  0.715   13  0.394   14  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 19.248   14  0.619   19 -0.213
Toronto                 17 14 2353 2384  0.153   14  0.570   14  0.290   18  0.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 18.737   22  0.083   15  0.173
Windsor                 18 15 2752 2809  0.028   15  0.476   15  0.194   22 -0.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 18.232   12  0.707   30 -0.807
Queen's ON              15 16 2523 2514  0.252   16  0.413   16  0.158   15  0.197    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 18.289   13  0.665   20 -0.270
Lethbridge U.           21 13 3086 2936 -0.184   17  0.396   17  0.139   20 -0.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 18.126    8  1.122   38 -1.122
Western ON              20 13 2607 2502 -0.101   18  0.387   18  0.130   21 -0.020    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 18.059   26 -0.051   16  0.012
Laval                   13 14 1994 1951  0.212   19  0.342   19  0.083   16  0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 18.006   28 -0.191    9  0.567
St Mary's NS            19 10 2392 2231 -0.341   20  0.324   20  0.065   19  0.029    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 17.857   21  0.204   18 -0.147
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurier                 17 17 2742 2625  0.097   21  0.165   21 -0.020   11  0.392    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 17.643   15  0.572   13  0.212
St Francis Xavier       16 16 2687 2608 -0.117   22 -0.026   22 -0.153   17  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 17.068   11  0.758   21 -0.476
Nipissing               12 19 2199 2417  0.016   23 -0.093   23 -0.195   25 -0.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 16.646   35 -0.556   17 -0.030
McMaster                13 19 2541 2697 -0.042   24 -0.140   24 -0.251   23 -0.209    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 16.447   19  0.304   29 -0.722
Regina                  16 15 2580 2585 -0.300   25 -0.153   25 -0.259   28 -0.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 16.491   23  0.050   33 -0.989
Bishop's                 7 20 2065 2350  0.294   26 -0.184   26 -0.286   24 -0.253    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 16.322   16  0.423   32 -0.929
Victoria                17 14 2449 2392 -0.499   27 -0.290   27 -0.399   26 -0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 15.989   30 -0.256   23 -0.502
Manitoba                16 12 2219 2153 -0.647   28 -0.351   28 -0.440   29 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 15.818   34 -0.505   22 -0.480
Saskatchewan            13 18 2335 2520 -0.458   29 -0.508   29 -0.568   30 -0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 15.039   33 -0.478   28 -0.663
Winnipeg                13 14 2119 2192 -0.569   30 -0.509   30 -0.569   32 -0.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 15.095   31 -0.343   31 -0.837
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNBC                    16 16 2505 2618 -0.748   31 -0.577   31 -0.643   41 -0.949    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 14.739   38 -0.772   39 -1.126
Waterloo                10 23 2619 2884 -0.151   32 -0.588   32 -0.654   31 -0.576    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 14.819   24  0.040   42 -1.193
York ON                 10 25 2502 2820 -0.146   33 -0.615   33 -0.682   35 -0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 14.644   40 -0.824   24 -0.556
UQAM                     6 21 1835 2173 -0.015   34 -0.623   34 -0.691   38 -0.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 14.397   44 -1.173   25 -0.618
Brandon                 10 18 2306 2401 -0.432   35 -0.683   35 -0.750   33 -0.648    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 14.374   25 -0.050   43 -1.246
Algoma                   7 23 2154 2482 -0.120   36 -0.763   36 -0.817   36 -0.729    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 13.984   39 -0.796   27 -0.662
Mount Royal              9 17 2058 2107 -0.401   37 -0.779   37 -0.834   27 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 14.145   27 -0.177   26 -0.652
Thompson Rivers         15 12 2133 2122 -1.066   38 -0.815   38 -0.838   40 -0.944    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 13.854   42 -0.888   34 -1.000
Guelph                   7 23 2313 2601 -0.114   39 -0.835   39 -0.843   34 -0.683    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 13.998   29 -0.219   40 -1.147
Memorial                 6 22 2097 2418 -0.203   40 -0.893   40 -0.906   39 -0.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 13.679   36 -0.648   41 -1.167
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MacEwan                  6 19 1872 2151 -0.677   41 -1.227   41 -1.272   43 -1.187    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.996   43 -0.979   44 -1.395
UPEI                     7 24 2183 2592 -0.743   42 -1.335   42 -1.354   45 -1.423    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.674   46 -1.729   36 -1.117
Lakehead                 4 25 2124 2462 -0.311   43 -1.338   43 -1.356   37 -0.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.898   37 -0.730   35 -1.026
UCCB                     6 24 2406 2656 -0.613   44 -1.448   44 -1.473   42 -1.166    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.564   32 -0.395   46 -1.938
Fraser Valley            5 19 1750 2054 -0.877   45 -1.514   45 -1.534   46 -1.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45 11.208   45 -1.410   45 -1.581
Trinity Western          5 20 1903 2248 -0.878   46 -1.547   46 -1.577   44 -1.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46 11.033   41 -0.863   47 -1.977
UBC-Okanagan             3 24 1692 2167 -0.786   47 -1.717   47 -1.752   47 -1.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47 10.421   47 -2.389   37 -1.121


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.260 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               27  6 2795 2361 -0.121    9  1.062    9  0.717   10  0.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 20.621   17  0.422    8  0.598
Acadia                  22 11 2650 2526  0.132   11  0.904   11  0.592   13  0.302    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 20.042   18  0.383   12  0.221
UNB                     24 10 2881 2670 -0.137   13  0.715   13  0.394   14  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 19.248   14  0.619   19 -0.213
St Mary's NS            19 10 2392 2231 -0.341   20  0.324   20  0.065   19  0.029    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 17.857   21  0.204   18 -0.147
St Francis Xavier       16 16 2687 2608 -0.117   22 -0.026   22 -0.153   17  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 17.068   11  0.758   21 -0.476
Memorial                 6 22 2097 2418 -0.203   40 -0.893   40 -0.906   39 -0.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 13.679   36 -0.648   41 -1.167
UPEI                     7 24 2183 2592 -0.743   42 -1.335   42 -1.354   45 -1.423    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.674   46 -1.729   36 -1.117
UCCB                     6 24 2406 2656 -0.613   44 -1.448   44 -1.473   42 -1.166    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.564   32 -0.395   46 -1.938

Can W: strength=-0.589 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Calgary                 29  7 3109 2653  0.426    3  1.533    3  1.203    5  1.118    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 22.398    4  1.344    6  0.892
Alberta                 27  6 2846 2337 -0.020    8  1.142    8  0.787    7  0.832    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 20.959   10  0.786    7  0.878
UBC                     25  6 2874 2365 -0.073   10  1.016   10  0.691    8  0.802    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 20.627    3  1.412   14  0.191
Lethbridge U.           21 13 3086 2936 -0.184   17  0.396   17  0.139   20 -0.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 18.126    8  1.122   38 -1.122
Regina                  16 15 2580 2585 -0.300   25 -0.153   25 -0.259   28 -0.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 16.491   23  0.050   33 -0.989
Victoria                17 14 2449 2392 -0.499   27 -0.290   27 -0.399   26 -0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 15.989   30 -0.256   23 -0.502
Manitoba                16 12 2219 2153 -0.647   28 -0.351   28 -0.440   29 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 15.818   34 -0.505   22 -0.480
Saskatchewan            13 18 2335 2520 -0.458   29 -0.508   29 -0.568   30 -0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 15.039   33 -0.478   28 -0.663
Winnipeg                13 14 2119 2192 -0.569   30 -0.509   30 -0.569   32 -0.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 15.095   31 -0.343   31 -0.837
UNBC                    16 16 2505 2618 -0.748   31 -0.577   31 -0.643   41 -0.949    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 14.739   38 -0.772   39 -1.126
Brandon                 10 18 2306 2401 -0.432   35 -0.683   35 -0.750   33 -0.648    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 14.374   25 -0.050   43 -1.246
Mount Royal              9 17 2058 2107 -0.401   37 -0.779   37 -0.834   27 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 14.145   27 -0.177   26 -0.652
Thompson Rivers         15 12 2133 2122 -1.066   38 -0.815   38 -0.838   40 -0.944    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 13.854   42 -0.888   34 -1.000
MacEwan                  6 19 1872 2151 -0.677   41 -1.227   41 -1.272   43 -1.187    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.996   43 -0.979   44 -1.395
Fraser Valley            5 19 1750 2054 -0.877   45 -1.514   45 -1.534   46 -1.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45 11.208   45 -1.410   45 -1.581
Trinity Western          5 20 1903 2248 -0.878   46 -1.547   46 -1.577   44 -1.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46 11.033   41 -0.863   47 -1.977
UBC-Okanagan             3 24 1692 2167 -0.786   47 -1.717   47 -1.752   47 -1.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47 10.421   47 -2.389   37 -1.121

Ont Univ Athl: strength=0.136 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             35  1 3145 2225  0.960    1  2.662    1  2.376    1  2.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 26.249    1  1.960    1  2.673
Brock                   28  5 2853 2302  0.421    2  1.638    2  1.299    3  1.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 22.898    5  1.318    3  1.321
Ryerson                 25 12 3038 2692  0.785    4  1.458    4  1.123    4  1.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 22.165    6  1.301    5  1.162
Ottawa ON               24  8 2586 2253  0.492    6  1.413    6  1.081    6  1.032    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 21.938    9  0.887    4  1.177
Laurentian              21  8 2429 2241  0.385    7  1.279    7  0.935    9  0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 21.310    7  1.162   11  0.326
Toronto                 17 14 2353 2384  0.153   14  0.570   14  0.290   18  0.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 18.737   22  0.083   15  0.173
Windsor                 18 15 2752 2809  0.028   15  0.476   15  0.194   22 -0.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 18.232   12  0.707   30 -0.807
Queen's ON              15 16 2523 2514  0.252   16  0.413   16  0.158   15  0.197    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 18.289   13  0.665   20 -0.270
Western ON              20 13 2607 2502 -0.101   18  0.387   18  0.130   21 -0.020    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 18.059   26 -0.051   16  0.012
Laurier                 17 17 2742 2625  0.097   21  0.165   21 -0.020   11  0.392    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 17.643   15  0.572   13  0.212
Nipissing               12 19 2199 2417  0.016   23 -0.093   23 -0.195   25 -0.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 16.646   35 -0.556   17 -0.030
McMaster                13 19 2541 2697 -0.042   24 -0.140   24 -0.251   23 -0.209    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 16.447   19  0.304   29 -0.722
Waterloo                10 23 2619 2884 -0.151   32 -0.588   32 -0.654   31 -0.576    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 14.819   24  0.040   42 -1.193
York ON                 10 25 2502 2820 -0.146   33 -0.615   33 -0.682   35 -0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 14.644   40 -0.824   24 -0.556
Algoma                   7 23 2154 2482 -0.120   36 -0.763   36 -0.817   36 -0.729    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 13.984   39 -0.796   27 -0.662
Guelph                   7 23 2313 2601 -0.114   39 -0.835   39 -0.843   34 -0.683    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 13.998   29 -0.219   40 -1.147
Lakehead                 4 25 2124 2462 -0.311   43 -1.338   43 -1.356   37 -0.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.898   37 -0.730   35 -1.026

RSEQ: strength=0.194 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  24  6 2530 2026  0.489    5  1.442    5  1.112    2  1.526    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 22.247    2  1.435    2  1.617
Concordia QC            18 13 2361 2315  0.313   12  0.827   12  0.519   12  0.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 19.779   20  0.302   10  0.404
Laval                   13 14 1994 1951  0.212   19  0.342   19  0.083   16  0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 18.006   28 -0.191    9  0.567
Bishop's                 7 20 2065 2350  0.294   26 -0.184   26 -0.286   24 -0.253    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 16.322   16  0.423   32 -0.929
UQAM                     6 21 1835 2173 -0.015   34 -0.623   34 -0.691   38 -0.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 14.397   44 -1.173   25 -0.618

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
RSEQ             68  74 0.479    1  0.194
Ont Univ Athl   283 266 0.515    2  0.136
Atl U Sport     127 123 0.508    3 -0.260
Can W           246 250 0.496    4 -0.589

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.251 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:02 2022

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