Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Randall                 21 15 3058 2979 -0.818    1 -0.512    1 -0.572    1 -0.902    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.980    2 -0.316    2 -1.488
Grace Bible             19 18 2896 2873 -0.938    2 -0.967    2 -0.992    2 -1.041    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.311    4 -1.056    1 -1.027
Bob Jones U.            22 11 2650 2619 -1.678    3 -1.072    3 -1.102    3 -1.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.489    5 -1.289    4 -1.821
Dallas Christian        17 17 2846 3058 -1.493    4 -1.233    4 -1.282    5 -1.773    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.780    3 -0.965    9 -2.581
Johnson TN              18 15 3094 3089 -1.609    5 -1.439    5 -1.462    4 -1.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.353    1 -0.045   18 -3.396
Portland Bible          12 18 2150 2424 -1.401    6 -1.535    6 -1.563    6 -1.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.875    8 -2.020    3 -1.807
Great Lakes Christian    9 21 2377 2683 -1.657    7 -2.228    7 -2.263    7 -2.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.970    6 -1.295   16 -3.179
Arlington Baptist       12 19 2254 2626 -2.069    8 -2.283    8 -2.339    8 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.630   11 -2.352    5 -2.415
SAGU Amer Ind            3 16 1441 1734 -1.416    9 -2.555    9 -2.660   10 -2.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.774    7 -1.958   15 -3.073
Trinity FL               8 11 1297 1468 -2.589   10 -2.591   10 -2.713   14 -2.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.520   18 -3.290    6 -2.423
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Kansas Christian        20 17 2958 2924 -2.819   11 -2.602   11 -2.729   12 -2.660    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.530   12 -2.431   12 -2.889
Simmons KY               4 17 1499 1794 -1.787   12 -2.839   12 -3.044    9 -2.469    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.020   13 -2.503    8 -2.435
Barclay                 12 21 2641 2866 -2.513   13 -2.860   13 -3.082   13 -2.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.882    9 -2.130   19 -3.431
Welch                    7 20 1900 2263 -2.485   14 -2.873   14 -3.099   16 -3.144    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.703   19 -3.424   11 -2.863
Trinity Baptist          9 20 1826 2234 -2.659   15 -2.894   15 -3.132   17 -3.227    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.653   25 -4.022    7 -2.432
Pensacola Christian      6 20 1886 2140 -2.377   16 -2.989   16 -3.277   15 -2.890    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.481   14 -2.829   13 -2.951
Johnson FL               5 23 2134 2346 -2.088   17 -3.070   17 -3.457   11 -2.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.218   10 -2.253   10 -2.850
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    14 20 2672 3064 -3.438   18 -3.099   18 -3.507   21 -3.769    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.798   15 -3.007   26 -4.532
Manhattan Christian     11 23 2466 2968 -3.156   19 -3.143   19 -3.573   22 -3.874    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.692   20 -3.675   24 -4.073
Emmaus Bible             8 17 1936 2320 -3.484   20 -3.281   20 -3.805   23 -3.942    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.223   16 -3.098   28 -4.785
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ozark Christian         13 24 2658 3051 -3.468   21 -3.286   21 -3.821   20 -3.761    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.287   24 -3.843   20 -3.680
Providence MB           12 13 2047 2176 -3.943   22 -3.381   22 -3.923   24 -3.951    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.965   17 -3.107   29 -4.796
Oak Hills Christian      7 17 1725 2155 -3.454   23 -3.448   24 -4.066   25 -4.029    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.724   21 -3.703   25 -4.355
Trinity Bible            7 15 1494 1809 -3.709   24 -3.488   23 -4.063   27 -4.178    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.629   27 -4.445   21 -3.912
Boyce                    3 27 2001 2579 -2.620   25 -3.605   25 -4.175   19 -3.462    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.635   22 -3.712   17 -3.212
Moody Bible              1 17 1150 1503 -2.463   26 -3.633   26 -4.253   18 -3.371    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.549   23 -3.782   14 -2.960
Toccoa Falls             0 30 1721 2950 -2.336   27 -3.783   27 -4.594   26 -4.107    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  3.706   26 -4.195   22 -4.019
Calvary                  4 22 1666 2233 -3.639   28 -3.796   28 -4.625   28 -4.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.560   28 -4.861   23 -4.048
Appalachian Bible        1  8  513  811 -4.514   29 -3.993   29 -5.035   30 -6.210    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.756   29 -6.638   30 -5.781
Faith Baptist Bible      2 26 1543 2344 -4.337   30 -4.202   30 -5.600   29 -5.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.174   30 -6.721   27 -4.558


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.988 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Barclay                 12 21 2641 2866 -2.513   13 -2.860   13 -3.082   13 -2.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.882    9 -2.130   19 -3.431
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    14 20 2672 3064 -3.438   18 -3.099   18 -3.507   21 -3.769    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.798   15 -3.007   26 -4.532
Manhattan Christian     11 23 2466 2968 -3.156   19 -3.143   19 -3.573   22 -3.874    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.692   20 -3.675   24 -4.073
Emmaus Bible             8 17 1936 2320 -3.484   20 -3.281   20 -3.805   23 -3.942    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.223   16 -3.098   28 -4.785
Ozark Christian         13 24 2658 3051 -3.468   21 -3.286   21 -3.821   20 -3.761    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.287   24 -3.843   20 -3.680
Calvary                  4 22 1666 2233 -3.639   28 -3.796   28 -4.625   28 -4.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.560   28 -4.861   23 -4.048
Faith Baptist Bible      2 26 1543 2344 -4.337   30 -4.202   30 -5.600   29 -5.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.174   30 -6.721   27 -4.558

NCCAA-II N: strength=-3.400 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Moody Bible              1 17 1150 1503 -2.463   26 -3.633   26 -4.253   18 -3.371    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.549   23 -3.782   14 -2.960

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.018 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Randall                 21 15 3058 2979 -0.818    1 -0.512    1 -0.572    1 -0.902    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.980    2 -0.316    2 -1.488
Dallas Christian        17 17 2846 3058 -1.493    4 -1.233    4 -1.282    5 -1.773    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.780    3 -0.965    9 -2.581
Arlington Baptist       12 19 2254 2626 -2.069    8 -2.283    8 -2.339    8 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.630   11 -2.352    5 -2.415
SAGU Amer Ind            3 16 1441 1734 -1.416    9 -2.555    9 -2.660   10 -2.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.774    7 -1.958   15 -3.073
Kansas Christian        20 17 2958 2924 -2.819   11 -2.602   11 -2.729   12 -2.660    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.530   12 -2.431   12 -2.889

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.881 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bob Jones U.            22 11 2650 2619 -1.678    3 -1.072    3 -1.102    3 -1.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.489    5 -1.289    4 -1.821
Trinity FL               8 11 1297 1468 -2.589   10 -2.591   10 -2.713   14 -2.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.520   18 -3.290    6 -2.423
Trinity Baptist          9 20 1826 2234 -2.659   15 -2.894   15 -3.132   17 -3.227    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.653   25 -4.022    7 -2.432
Pensacola Christian      6 20 1886 2140 -2.377   16 -2.989   16 -3.277   15 -2.890    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.481   14 -2.829   13 -2.951
Johnson FL               5 23 2134 2346 -2.088   17 -3.070   17 -3.457   11 -2.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.218   10 -2.253   10 -2.850
Toccoa Falls             0 30 1721 2950 -2.336   27 -3.783   27 -4.594   26 -4.107    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  3.706   26 -4.195   22 -4.019

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II SW      73  84 0.465    1 -2.018
NCCAA-II South   50 115 0.303    2 -2.881
NCCAA-II N        1  17 0.056    3 -3.400
Midwest Chr      64 153 0.295    4 -3.988

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.251 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:02 2022

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