Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Berkeley-NY             28  1 2761 2027 -1.852    1 -0.049    1 -0.183    1 -0.664    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 16.686    2 -0.196    2 -1.132
Villa Maria             25  6 2756 2398 -1.949    2 -1.067    2 -1.097    3 -1.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.631    3 -0.926    7 -2.059
Central Penn            17 13 2352 2175 -1.194    3 -1.069    3 -1.098    2 -1.167    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.877    5 -1.369    1 -0.965
Penn St-Brandywine      21  8 2393 2238 -2.204    4 -1.601    4 -1.621    5 -1.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.809    7 -1.445   12 -2.283
New Hampshire Tech      21  4 2286 1913 -2.817    5 -1.753    5 -1.806   10 -2.137    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.292    4 -1.266   23 -3.008
Warren Wilson           17 16 3280 3262 -1.850    6 -1.787    6 -1.847    6 -1.920    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.253    1  0.169   36 -4.008
Penn St-York            16  8 1824 1779 -2.464    7 -1.897    7 -1.981   15 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.735   17 -2.477   13 -2.311
SUNY Delhi              14 15 2263 2175 -1.874    8 -1.911    8 -1.999    4 -1.711    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  9.993    9 -1.613    6 -1.809
Johnson & Wales NC      10 16 2101 2322 -1.645    9 -1.930    9 -2.004    7 -1.950    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  9.824    6 -1.381   16 -2.520
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 11 1923 1791 -2.288   10 -2.123   11 -2.193    8 -2.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.266   18 -2.512    4 -1.523
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   15  9 1973 1895 -2.501   11 -2.142   10 -2.178   12 -2.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.106   10 -1.813   19 -2.773
Andrews                 12 11 1580 1566 -2.208   12 -2.153   12 -2.194   11 -2.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.086   27 -3.151    3 -1.323
Penn St-Lehigh Valley   11  9 1594 1522 -2.311   13 -2.235   13 -2.275    9 -2.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.041   11 -1.946   14 -2.314
Albany Pharmacy         12  7 1395 1222 -2.594   14 -2.242   14 -2.285   13 -2.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  9.003   24 -3.043    5 -1.582
Wright St-Lake          12 20 2407 2781 -2.250   15 -2.402   15 -2.484   20 -2.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.251   19 -2.554   21 -2.843
Five Towns               9  6 1347 1224 -3.282   16 -2.417   16 -2.510   27 -3.234    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.941   12 -2.006   41 -4.462
SW Adventist             5 13 1225 1469 -2.037   17 -2.438   17 -2.551   21 -2.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  7.947   26 -3.144   11 -2.274
Central Maine CC        17  5 1835 1574 -3.327   18 -2.453   18 -2.576   23 -2.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.002   20 -2.820   20 -2.817
Penn St-Mont Alto       11 13 1738 1789 -2.525   19 -2.547   19 -2.649   18 -2.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.742   21 -2.820   17 -2.531
Vermont Tech            20 16 2670 2538 -2.830   20 -2.560   20 -2.669   19 -2.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.717   28 -3.204    8 -2.169
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Hazleton         8 13 1482 1651 -2.408   21 -2.572   21 -2.684   24 -2.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.603   25 -3.099   18 -2.612
Southern Maine CC       16  7 1978 1615 -3.123   22 -2.591   22 -2.714   14 -2.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.800   15 -2.261   15 -2.435
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 12 1690 1739 -2.461   23 -2.673   23 -2.827   17 -2.603    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.482    8 -1.518   30 -3.689
Cincinnati-Clermont     10 14 2010 2196 -2.652   24 -2.692   24 -2.853   26 -3.075    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  7.172   13 -2.101   37 -4.049
Penn St-Fayette          7 14 1677 1757 -2.397   25 -2.734   25 -2.912   16 -2.577    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  7.219   14 -2.129   24 -3.025
Penn St-Beaver           9 15 1655 1735 -2.555   26 -2.763   27 -2.956   22 -2.792    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  7.050   32 -3.415    9 -2.170
Penn St-DuBois           6 12 1267 1461 -2.537   27 -2.771   26 -2.941   28 -3.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  6.974   31 -3.373   27 -3.165
Mid-Atlantic Chr         8 21 2051 2457 -2.385   28 -2.826   28 -3.018   25 -2.911    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  6.912   22 -2.895   22 -2.926
Maine-Machias           11 19 2218 2497 -3.042   29 -2.975   29 -3.257   33 -3.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  6.357   30 -3.371   32 -3.793
Williamson Trade         6 12 1081 1205 -2.898   30 -3.027   30 -3.379   30 -3.410    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  6.162   42 -4.636   10 -2.184
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Davis College            7 12 1392 1452 -3.238   31 -3.155   31 -3.591   29 -3.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.735   29 -3.321   28 -3.471
Vaughn                   8  8 1178 1213 -3.892   32 -3.243   32 -3.729   39 -4.155    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  5.473   38 -4.315   35 -3.995
Maine-Augusta            8 16 2076 2214 -3.285   33 -3.264   33 -3.779   34 -3.621    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.491   16 -2.265   44 -4.977
Penn St-New Kensington   3 15 1305 1482 -2.828   34 -3.320   34 -3.868   31 -3.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  5.359   33 -3.441   29 -3.577
Penn St-Worth Scranton   3 18 1367 1702 -3.006   35 -3.494   35 -4.069   38 -4.026    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.668   37 -4.221   33 -3.831
Kent St-Tuscarawas       5 24 1955 2643 -3.243   36 -3.546   36 -4.100   42 -4.275    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  4.443   34 -3.959   42 -4.591
Unity                    6 18 1675 1875 -3.396   37 -3.582   37 -4.126   37 -4.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  4.648   39 -4.315   31 -3.716
Georgia NW Tech          2  6  579  729 -3.671   38 -3.600   38 -4.170   41 -4.194    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  4.194   35 -4.011   40 -4.377
Christendom              5 12 1062 1249 -3.633   39 -3.617   39 -4.199   36 -3.909    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  4.244   43 -4.667   25 -3.151
St Joseph VT             2 22 1755 2192 -2.698   40 -3.636   40 -4.256   32 -3.558    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  4.327   23 -2.979   38 -4.137
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Paul Smith's             5 20 1726 1970 -3.602   41 -3.760   41 -4.545   40 -4.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  3.824   40 -4.456   34 -3.921
SUNY-ESF                 4 13 1082 1196 -3.526   42 -3.779   42 -4.592   35 -3.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  3.879   41 -4.560   26 -3.158
Southern St OH           2 17 1190 1592 -3.656   43 -3.872   43 -4.765   43 -4.802    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  3.255   44 -5.443   39 -4.160
Crown TN                 2 18 1487 1994 -4.129   44 -4.145   44 -5.488   44 -4.897    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  2.555   36 -4.141   45 -5.653
Pratt Institute          5 13  954 1343 -5.606   45 -4.326   45 -5.865   45 -6.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  1.977   46 -7.281   43 -4.903
Hampshire                0 16  843 1603 -3.784   46 -4.420   46 -6.113   48 -7.194    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  1.534   47 -7.623   49 -6.765
Culinary Institute       2  9  671  955 -5.968   47 -4.548   47 -6.552   46 -6.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  1.350   45 -6.795   47 -6.369
King's NY                3 13  826 1293 -6.149   48 -4.601   48 -6.571   47 -7.163    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  1.098   49 -8.281   46 -6.045
Webb Institute           0  5  246  410 -6.918   49 -4.941   49 -7.497   49 -7.375    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   49  0.000   48 -8.142   48 -6.608


PSUAC: strength=-2.630 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Brandywine      21  8 2393 2238 -2.204    4 -1.601    4 -1.621    5 -1.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.809    7 -1.445   12 -2.283
Penn St-York            16  8 1824 1779 -2.464    7 -1.897    7 -1.981   15 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.735   17 -2.477   13 -2.311
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 11 1923 1791 -2.288   10 -2.123   11 -2.193    8 -2.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.266   18 -2.512    4 -1.523
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   15  9 1973 1895 -2.501   11 -2.142   10 -2.178   12 -2.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.106   10 -1.813   19 -2.773
Penn St-Lehigh Valley   11  9 1594 1522 -2.311   13 -2.235   13 -2.275    9 -2.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.041   11 -1.946   14 -2.314
Penn St-Mont Alto       11 13 1738 1789 -2.525   19 -2.547   19 -2.649   18 -2.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.742   21 -2.820   17 -2.531
Penn St-Hazleton         8 13 1482 1651 -2.408   21 -2.572   21 -2.684   24 -2.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.603   25 -3.099   18 -2.612
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 12 1690 1739 -2.461   23 -2.673   23 -2.827   17 -2.603    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.482    8 -1.518   30 -3.689
Penn St-Fayette          7 14 1677 1757 -2.397   25 -2.734   25 -2.912   16 -2.577    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  7.219   14 -2.129   24 -3.025
Penn St-Beaver           9 15 1655 1735 -2.555   26 -2.763   27 -2.956   22 -2.792    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  7.050   32 -3.415    9 -2.170
Penn St-DuBois           6 12 1267 1461 -2.537   27 -2.771   26 -2.941   28 -3.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  6.974   31 -3.373   27 -3.165
Penn St-New Kensington   3 15 1305 1482 -2.828   34 -3.320   34 -3.868   31 -3.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  5.359   33 -3.441   29 -3.577
Penn St-Worth Scranton   3 18 1367 1702 -3.006   35 -3.494   35 -4.069   38 -4.026    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.668   37 -4.221   33 -3.831

Yankee Small: strength=-3.379 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      21  4 2286 1913 -2.817    5 -1.753    5 -1.806   10 -2.137    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.292    4 -1.266   23 -3.008
Central Maine CC        17  5 1835 1574 -3.327   18 -2.453   18 -2.576   23 -2.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.002   20 -2.820   20 -2.817
Vermont Tech            20 16 2670 2538 -2.830   20 -2.560   20 -2.669   19 -2.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.717   28 -3.204    8 -2.169
Southern Maine CC       16  7 1978 1615 -3.123   22 -2.591   22 -2.714   14 -2.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.800   15 -2.261   15 -2.435
Maine-Machias           11 19 2218 2497 -3.042   29 -2.975   29 -3.257   33 -3.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  6.357   30 -3.371   32 -3.793
Maine-Augusta            8 16 2076 2214 -3.285   33 -3.264   33 -3.779   34 -3.621    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.491   16 -2.265   44 -4.977
Unity                    6 18 1675 1875 -3.396   37 -3.582   37 -4.126   37 -4.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  4.648   39 -4.315   31 -3.716
Paul Smith's             5 20 1726 1970 -3.602   41 -3.760   41 -4.545   40 -4.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  3.824   40 -4.456   34 -3.921
Hampshire                0 16  843 1603 -3.784   46 -4.420   46 -6.113   48 -7.194    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  1.534   47 -7.623   49 -6.765

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           133 157 0.459    1 -2.630
Yankee Small    104 121 0.462    2 -3.379

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.251 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:02 2022

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