Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   55 16 7358 6805  0.047 35.024    1  2.498    1  0.686    1  0.646    1 0.5690  3.863  1.000  0.291  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 53 19 7397 6936  0.066 36.182    2  2.344    2  0.595    2  0.489    2 0.5616  3.855  0.801  0.176  0.000
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.028 34.481    3  2.229    3  0.523    3  0.473    3 0.5488  3.719  0.149  0.796  0.000
MIAMI         51 22 7154 6683  0.034 35.513    4  2.157    4  0.481    4  0.408    4 0.5458  3.772  0.327  0.490  0.000
INDIANA       47 26 7086 6820 -0.014 34.774    5  1.878    5  0.316    6  0.261    6 0.5301  3.787  0.248  0.274  0.000
LA LAKERS     45 30 7261 7201  0.082 39.100    6  1.852    6  0.304   13  0.089    5 0.5311  3.767 -0.014  0.192  0.000
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.054 37.092    7  1.825    7  0.285   10  0.168    7 0.5298  3.734 -0.088  0.423  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   44 30 7165 7017  0.059 37.701    8  1.798    8  0.264    9  0.195    8 0.5286  3.776  0.132  0.257  0.000
BOSTON        45 30 6863 6653  0.020 36.866    9  1.759    9  0.238    5  0.291    9 0.5221  3.683 -0.196  0.778  0.000
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.048 36.798   10  1.656   10  0.176    7  0.224   10 0.5202  3.903  0.772 -0.324  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.017 34.453   11  1.647   11  0.173   12  0.139   11 0.5152  3.744 -0.070  0.348  0.000
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.097 36.909   12  1.537   12  0.110   14  0.068   12 0.5132  3.751 -0.112  0.248  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  40 35 6960 6686  0.039 37.147   13  1.507   13  0.091    8  0.206   14 0.5079  3.706 -0.176  0.588  0.000
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.006 35.012   14  1.466   14  0.083   19 -0.103   15 0.5066  3.742 -0.323  0.118  0.000
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.051 35.917   15  1.457   15  0.076   16  0.035   13 0.5091  3.815  0.158 -0.088  0.000
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.024 33.084   16  1.428   16  0.058   17  0.018   16 0.5060  3.806  0.096 -0.061  0.000
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.036 33.483   17  1.368   17  0.021   15  0.062   17 0.5038  3.848  0.340 -0.216  0.000
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.007 34.367   18  1.363   18  0.017   11  0.146   18 0.5016  3.803  0.208  0.084  0.000
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.053 31.308   19  1.143   19 -0.117   18 -0.028   19 0.4862  3.873  0.372 -0.427  0.000
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.021 33.188   20  1.079   20 -0.154   20 -0.128   20 0.4839  3.809 -0.036 -0.220  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609  0.012 33.235   21  0.958   21 -0.226   22 -0.224   21 0.4771  3.844  0.035 -0.484  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.021 33.605   22  0.802   22 -0.324   23 -0.234   22 0.4672  3.858  0.096 -0.564  0.000
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.095 31.698   23  0.754   23 -0.349   27 -0.339   23 0.4637  3.742 -0.557 -0.121  0.000
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893  0.009 33.751   24  0.725   24 -0.366   26 -0.319   24 0.4627  3.900  0.214 -0.853  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.017 33.744   25  0.668   25 -0.409   21 -0.203   25 0.4601  3.682 -0.694  0.287  0.000
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.075 31.718   26  0.665   26 -0.411   24 -0.245   26 0.4575  3.722 -0.557  0.067  0.000
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.104 31.725   27  0.597   27 -0.441   28 -0.486   27 0.4527  3.814 -0.370 -0.602  0.000
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.094 32.128   28  0.545   28 -0.470   29 -0.618   28 0.4507  3.811 -0.516 -0.719  0.000
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.085 31.789   29  0.493   29 -0.513   25 -0.266   29 0.4459  3.817 -0.133 -0.399  0.000
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.138 32.024   30  0.000   30 -1.097   30 -1.073   30 0.3978  3.763 -1.195 -0.950  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     45 30 7261 7201  0.082 39.100    6  1.852    6  0.304   13  0.089    5 0.5311  3.767 -0.014  0.192  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   44 30 7165 7017  0.059 37.701    8  1.798    8  0.264    9  0.195    8 0.5286  3.776  0.132  0.257  0.000
PHOENIX       33 33 6492 6508  0.036 33.483   17  1.368   17  0.021   15  0.062   17 0.5038  3.848  0.340 -0.216  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  23 43 6453 6678  0.021 33.605   22  0.802   22 -0.324   23 -0.234   22 0.4672  3.858  0.096 -0.564  0.000
SACRAMENTO    22 44 6518 6893  0.009 33.751   24  0.725   24 -0.366   26 -0.319   24 0.4627  3.900  0.214 -0.853  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 53 19 7397 6936  0.066 36.182    2  2.344    2  0.595    2  0.489    2 0.5616  3.855  0.801  0.176  0.000
DENVER        41 32 7549 7356  0.048 36.798   10  1.656   10  0.176    7  0.224   10 0.5202  3.903  0.772 -0.324  0.000
UTAH          36 34 6922 6945  0.051 35.917   15  1.457   15  0.076   16  0.035   13 0.5091  3.815  0.158 -0.088  0.000
PORTLAND      28 38 6415 6456  0.021 33.188   20  1.079   20 -0.154   20 -0.128   20 0.4839  3.809 -0.036 -0.220  0.000
MINNESOTA     26 40 6464 6609  0.012 33.235   21  0.958   21 -0.226   22 -0.224   21 0.4771  3.844  0.035 -0.484  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   55 16 7358 6805  0.047 35.024    1  2.498    1  0.686    1  0.646    1 0.5690  3.863  1.000  0.291  0.000
MEMPHIS       44 29 6909 6771  0.054 37.092    7  1.825    7  0.285   10  0.168    7 0.5298  3.734 -0.088  0.423  0.000
DALLAS        36 34 6695 6658  0.097 36.909   12  1.537   12  0.110   14  0.068   12 0.5132  3.751 -0.112  0.248  0.000
HOUSTON       34 32 6474 6459  0.024 33.084   16  1.428   16  0.058   17  0.018   16 0.5060  3.806  0.096 -0.061  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   21 45 5916 6164  0.017 33.744   25  0.668   25 -0.409   21 -0.203   25 0.4601  3.682 -0.694  0.287  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       52 20 6865 6335  0.028 34.481    3  2.229    3  0.523    3  0.473    3 0.5488  3.719  0.149  0.796  0.000
INDIANA       47 26 7086 6820 -0.014 34.774    5  1.878    5  0.316    6  0.261    6 0.5301  3.787  0.248  0.274  0.000
MILWAUKEE     31 35 6535 6517 -0.053 31.308   19  1.143   19 -0.117   18 -0.028   19 0.4862  3.873  0.372 -0.427  0.000
DETROIT       25 41 5997 6313 -0.095 31.698   23  0.754   23 -0.349   27 -0.339   23 0.4637  3.742 -0.557 -0.121  0.000
CLEVELAND     21 45 6140 6615 -0.094 32.128   28  0.545   28 -0.470   29 -0.618   28 0.4507  3.811 -0.516 -0.719  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         51 22 7154 6683  0.034 35.513    4  2.157    4  0.481    4  0.408    4 0.5458  3.772  0.327  0.490  0.000
ATLANTA       42 30 6868 6669 -0.017 34.453   11  1.647   11  0.173   12  0.139   11 0.5152  3.744 -0.070  0.348  0.000
ORLANDO       38 33 6634 6636 -0.006 35.012   14  1.466   14  0.083   19 -0.103   15 0.5066  3.742 -0.323  0.118  0.000
WASHINGTON    20 46 6180 6497 -0.085 31.789   29  0.493   29 -0.513   25 -0.266   29 0.4459  3.817 -0.133 -0.399  0.000
CHARLOTTE      7 59 5739 6657 -0.138 32.024   30  0.000   30 -1.097   30 -1.073   30 0.3978  3.763 -1.195 -0.950  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        45 30 6863 6653  0.020 36.866    9  1.759    9  0.238    5  0.291    9 0.5221  3.683 -0.196  0.778  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  40 35 6960 6686  0.039 37.147   13  1.507   13  0.091    8  0.206   14 0.5079  3.706 -0.176  0.588  0.000
NEW YORK      37 34 6872 6731 -0.007 34.367   18  1.363   18  0.017   11  0.146   18 0.5016  3.803  0.208  0.084  0.000
TORONTO       23 43 5986 6204 -0.075 31.718   26  0.665   26 -0.411   24 -0.245   26 0.4575  3.722 -0.557  0.067  0.000
NEW JERSEY    22 44 6144 6539 -0.104 31.725   27  0.597   27 -0.441   28 -0.486   27 0.4527  3.814 -0.370 -0.602  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 190 156 0.549    1  0.148
NORTHWEST DIVISION 184 163 0.530    2  0.127
ATLANTIC DIVISION  167 186 0.473    3 -0.040
PACIFIC DIVISION   167 180 0.481    4 -0.058
CENTRAL DIVISION   176 167 0.513    5 -0.061
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 158 190 0.454    6 -0.185

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.248 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May 17 05:30:11 2012
games through: Wed May 16 2012

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