Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.866    1 -1.411    1 -1.424    2 -1.520    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 10.843    2 -1.036    1 -2.003
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.918    2 -1.456    2 -1.461    3 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.584    3 -1.252    2 -2.252
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.053    3 -1.788    3 -1.818    1 -1.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.705    1 -0.554    3 -2.403
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.216    4 -2.048    4 -2.133    4 -1.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  8.686    4 -1.293    4 -2.496
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.764    5 -2.434    5 -2.470    6 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.413    6 -2.239    8 -2.970
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.200    6 -2.547    6 -2.624    7 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.775    7 -2.383   11 -3.388
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.184    7 -2.735    7 -2.789    8 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.354   10 -2.906    6 -2.899
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.150    8 -2.890    8 -2.954   16 -3.746    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.723   19 -3.947   14 -3.545
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.256    9 -3.190    9 -3.349    9 -3.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.125    8 -2.409   17 -3.737
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.880   10 -3.254   10 -3.470    5 -2.465    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.042    5 -2.022    7 -2.908
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Cloud Tech            3  3  452  439 -3.437   11 -3.268   11 -3.540   10 -3.166    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.727   11 -2.920   13 -3.412
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.042   12 -3.271   12 -3.548   15 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.664   14 -3.375   19 -3.846
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.641   13 -3.303   13 -3.642   24 -4.430    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.352   23 -4.368   26 -4.493
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.702   14 -3.312   14 -3.658   23 -4.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.207   26 -4.922   20 -3.902
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.108   15 -3.332   16 -3.715   14 -3.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.576   13 -3.339   15 -3.561
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.741   16 -3.360   15 -3.676   18 -3.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.534   16 -3.487   25 -4.465
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.179   17 -3.516   17 -4.022   26 -4.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.027   29 -5.526   18 -3.740
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.791   18 -3.539   18 -4.060   20 -4.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.889   22 -4.251   24 -4.110
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.303   19 -3.554   19 -4.096   19 -4.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.957   25 -4.892   12 -3.399
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.181   20 -3.601   20 -4.201   17 -3.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.793   17 -3.789   23 -4.081
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Coll of the Bahamas      0  4  232  332 -1.344   21 -3.668   22 -4.363   11 -3.209    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.955   12 -3.289    9 -3.128
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.395   22 -3.671   21 -4.362   13 -3.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.643   20 -3.959    5 -2.888
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.595   23 -3.681   23 -4.397   12 -3.346    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  3.697   15 -3.423   10 -3.269
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.299   24 -3.727   24 -4.531   28 -4.948    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  3.276   31 -6.308   16 -3.588
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.665   25 -3.848   25 -4.743   27 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.894    9 -2.904   36 -6.647
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.951   26 -3.852   26 -4.753   22 -4.405    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.119   18 -3.844   28 -4.965
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.845   27 -3.961   27 -4.939   25 -4.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.864   28 -5.114   22 -4.022
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.552   28 -3.981   28 -5.003   32 -6.331    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.390   33 -6.958   30 -5.704
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.495   29 -4.021   29 -5.076   21 -4.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.746   24 -4.494   21 -3.991
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.450   30 -4.033   30 -5.129   29 -4.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.530   21 -4.086   32 -5.838
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.520   31 -4.273   31 -5.840   30 -5.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  1.965   27 -4.931   29 -5.594
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.776   32 -4.351   32 -6.052   33 -6.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  1.578   32 -6.958   33 -6.031
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.423   33 -4.520   33 -6.735   36 -7.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  0.834   36 -8.486   34 -6.534
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.100   34 -4.560   34 -6.861   37 -8.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  0.572   37 -9.470   37 -7.495
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.127   35 -4.581   35 -6.951   31 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  0.916   30 -5.604   27 -4.929
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.468   36 -4.796   36 -7.857   34 -6.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  0.244   34 -7.899   31 -5.723
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.578   37 -4.873   37 -8.184   35 -7.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  0.000   35 -8.343   35 -6.592


Independent: strength=-4.299 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.918    2 -1.456    2 -1.461    3 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.584    3 -1.252    2 -2.252
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.216    4 -2.048    4 -2.133    4 -1.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  8.686    4 -1.293    4 -2.496
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.200    6 -2.547    6 -2.624    7 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.775    7 -2.383   11 -3.388
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.184    7 -2.735    7 -2.789    8 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.354   10 -2.906    6 -2.899
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.150    8 -2.890    8 -2.954   16 -3.746    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.723   19 -3.947   14 -3.545
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.641   13 -3.303   13 -3.642   24 -4.430    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.352   23 -4.368   26 -4.493
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.702   14 -3.312   14 -3.658   23 -4.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.207   26 -4.922   20 -3.902
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.791   18 -3.539   18 -4.060   20 -4.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.889   22 -4.251   24 -4.110
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.303   19 -3.554   19 -4.096   19 -4.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.957   25 -4.892   12 -3.399
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.595   23 -3.681   23 -4.397   12 -3.346    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  3.697   15 -3.423   10 -3.269
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.552   28 -3.981   28 -5.003   32 -6.331    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.390   33 -6.958   30 -5.704
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.495   29 -4.021   29 -5.076   21 -4.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.746   24 -4.494   21 -3.991
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.450   30 -4.033   30 -5.129   29 -4.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.530   21 -4.086   32 -5.838
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.127   35 -4.581   35 -6.951   31 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  0.916   30 -5.604   27 -4.929
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.468   36 -4.796   36 -7.857   34 -6.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  0.244   34 -7.899   31 -5.723
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.578   37 -4.873   37 -8.184   35 -7.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  0.000   35 -8.343   35 -6.592

Hudson Valley: strength=-4.540 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 16 1800 2029 -2.861      -2.557      -2.639      -3.021      0.0000      0.0000       6.710      -2.645      -3.397
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.108   15 -3.332   16 -3.715   14 -3.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.576   13 -3.339   15 -3.561
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.741   16 -3.360   15 -3.676   18 -3.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.534   16 -3.487   25 -4.465
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.179   17 -3.516   17 -4.022   26 -4.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.027   29 -5.526   18 -3.740
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.845   27 -3.961   27 -4.939   25 -4.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.864   28 -5.114   22 -4.022
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.776   32 -4.351   32 -6.052   33 -6.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  1.578   32 -6.958   33 -6.031
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.423   33 -4.520   33 -6.735   36 -7.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  0.834   36 -8.486   34 -6.534

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-2.940 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Cincinnati-Clermont     26  7 2886 2329 -1.421      -0.535      -0.638      -0.763      0.0000      0.0000      14.058      -0.247      -1.280
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.866    1 -1.411    1 -1.424    2 -1.520    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 10.843    2 -1.036    1 -2.003
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.053    3 -1.788    3 -1.818    1 -1.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.705    1 -0.554    3 -2.403
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.764    5 -2.434    5 -2.470    6 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  7.413    6 -2.239    8 -2.970
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.256    9 -3.190    9 -3.349    9 -3.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.125    8 -2.409   17 -3.737
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.880   10 -3.254   10 -3.470    5 -2.465    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.042    5 -2.022    7 -2.908
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.042   12 -3.271   12 -3.548   15 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.664   14 -3.375   19 -3.846
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.181   20 -3.601   20 -4.201   17 -3.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.793   17 -3.789   23 -4.081
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.395   22 -3.671   21 -4.362   13 -3.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.643   20 -3.959    5 -2.888
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.665   25 -3.848   25 -4.743   27 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.894    9 -2.904   36 -6.647
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.520   31 -4.273   31 -5.840   30 -5.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  1.965   27 -4.931   29 -5.594

Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC: strength=-5.358 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.299   24 -3.727   24 -4.531   28 -4.948    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  3.276   31 -6.308   16 -3.588
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.951   26 -3.852   26 -4.753   22 -4.405    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.119   18 -3.844   28 -4.965
Christendom              3 12  867 1080 -4.643      -4.181      -5.604      -5.033      0.0000      0.0000       2.251      -5.520      -4.546
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.100   34 -4.560   34 -6.861   37 -8.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  0.572   37 -9.470   37 -7.495

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio Regional Campus       55  95 0.367    1 -2.940
Independent                33 146 0.184    2 -4.299
Hudson Valley              29  55 0.345    3 -4.540
Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC   8  24 0.250    4 -5.358

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:06 2019

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