Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Bible             25 10 2775 2283 -0.520    1  0.122    1 -0.066    1 -0.023    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 16.656    2  0.077    1 -0.122
Valley Forge Chr        25  6 2491 2090 -1.651    2 -0.715    2 -0.806    4 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.539    5 -0.768    4 -1.201
SW Christian            26 13 3376 3115 -1.437    3 -0.958    3 -1.023    5 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.583    3 -0.310   10 -1.906
Portland Bible          18 15 2635 2467 -1.068    4 -0.992    4 -1.061    2 -0.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.499    6 -0.810    3 -1.062
Dallas Christian        14 24 2666 2842 -0.796    5 -1.274    5 -1.269    3 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.752    8 -0.967    2 -0.915
Wesley MS               10 14 1874 1948 -1.198    6 -1.378    6 -1.387    6 -1.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.930    7 -0.874   12 -2.215
Ohio Christian          26  8 2893 2293 -2.166    7 -1.400    7 -1.412    7 -1.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.855   12 -1.469    7 -1.667
Northland Int'l         13  9 1617 1530 -1.753    8 -1.565    8 -1.593    8 -1.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.283   13 -1.620    5 -1.570
Central Bible           19 19 2842 2886 -1.746    9 -1.721    9 -1.743    9 -1.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.621   14 -1.828    8 -1.667
Baptist Bible MO        18 12 2578 2565 -2.033   10 -1.739   10 -1.749   11 -1.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.457    4 -0.540   24 -3.230
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lincoln Christian       17  7 1851 1687 -2.438   11 -1.788   11 -1.822   14 -2.101    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.263   15 -1.945   13 -2.258
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.416   12 -1.818   12 -1.848   13 -1.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.197    9 -1.222   18 -2.685
Atlanta Christian       19 16 2764 2643 -1.917   13 -1.831   13 -1.863   10 -1.809    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.313   11 -1.408   11 -2.209
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.934   14 -1.841   14 -1.875   19 -2.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.986    1  0.431   33 -5.150
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.223   15 -1.935   15 -1.990   12 -1.950    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.778   23 -2.285    6 -1.614
Kuyper                   9 21 1980 2410 -1.679   16 -2.066   16 -2.157   18 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.287   16 -2.120   16 -2.527
Southeastern Bible       7 16 1786 2000 -1.656   17 -2.133   17 -2.243   15 -2.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.229   10 -1.224   22 -3.138
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.299   18 -2.268   18 -2.377   22 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.634   24 -2.534   17 -2.642
Clearwater Christian    11 15 1903 2039 -2.254   19 -2.319   19 -2.437   20 -2.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.524   17 -2.154   20 -2.777
Faith Baptist Bible     18 12 2298 2087 -2.653   20 -2.431   20 -2.467   17 -2.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.432   19 -2.167   15 -2.472
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.574   21 -2.460   21 -2.504   21 -2.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.278   21 -2.251   19 -2.745
Florida Christian       10 14 1785 1754 -2.243   22 -2.523   22 -2.592   16 -2.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.245   20 -2.249   14 -2.349
Moody Bible              8 10 1106 1177 -2.557   23 -2.573   23 -2.662   23 -2.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  6.743   28 -3.505    9 -1.684
Toccoa Falls            11 14 1732 1887 -2.772   24 -2.646   24 -2.708   27 -3.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.433   26 -3.172   21 -2.888
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.589   25 -2.648   25 -2.709   24 -2.821    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.623   18 -2.161   25 -3.480
Trinity FL               7 19 1783 2130 -2.177   26 -2.683   26 -2.758   26 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.433   25 -2.779   23 -3.225
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.765   27 -3.070   27 -3.147   25 -2.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.554   22 -2.261   27 -3.690
Great Lakes Christian    2 19 1312 1810 -2.667   28 -3.410   28 -3.767   28 -3.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  4.252   27 -3.342   31 -4.484
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.617   29 -3.529   29 -4.048   29 -3.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.048   29 -3.682   30 -4.230
Crown TN                 9 13 1501 1638 -4.067   30 -3.569   30 -4.122   32 -4.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.881   34 -4.465   29 -4.158
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.471   31 -3.624   31 -4.260   31 -4.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.568   35 -4.639   26 -3.570
Davis College            1  7  543  666 -3.201   32 -3.675   32 -4.384   30 -4.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  3.539   31 -4.083   28 -3.920
Piedmont Baptist         5 21 1773 2301 -4.089   33 -3.894   33 -4.784   35 -4.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.886   33 -4.337   35 -5.335
Johnson Bible            5 18 1571 2012 -4.050   34 -3.921   34 -4.838   34 -4.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  2.906   32 -4.335   34 -5.286
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.796   35 -3.935   35 -4.861   33 -4.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.762   30 -3.688   37 -5.662
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.531   36 -3.986   36 -4.989   36 -5.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.594   36 -5.201   32 -5.016
Boyce                    4 15 1058 1591 -4.799   37 -3.998   37 -5.030   37 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.505   37 -6.332   36 -5.383
Appalachian Bible        0 11  626 1002 -5.440   38 -4.536   38 -6.760   38 -7.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.851   38 -7.104   38 -7.136


NCCAA-II Central: strength=-2.383 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Central Bible           19 19 2842 2886 -1.746    9 -1.721    9 -1.743    9 -1.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.621   14 -1.828    8 -1.667
Baptist Bible MO        18 12 2578 2565 -2.033   10 -1.739   10 -1.749   11 -1.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.457    4 -0.540   24 -3.230
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.223   15 -1.935   15 -1.990   12 -1.950    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.778   23 -2.285    6 -1.614
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.299   18 -2.268   18 -2.377   22 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.634   24 -2.534   17 -2.642
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.796   35 -3.935   35 -4.861   33 -4.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.762   30 -3.688   37 -5.662

NCCAA-II East: strength=-2.649 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Valley Forge Chr        25  6 2491 2090 -1.651    2 -0.715    2 -0.806    4 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.539    5 -0.768    4 -1.201
Lancaster Bible         13 15 2071 2008 -1.808      -1.851      -1.888      -1.681      0.0000      0.0000       9.345      -1.660      -1.702
Phila Biblical           7 19 1571 1991 -2.236      -2.414      -2.442      -2.900      0.0000      0.0000       7.348      -3.401      -2.400
Baptist Bible PA         2 22 1580 1923 -2.181      -3.143      -3.248      -2.809      0.0000      0.0000       5.434      -2.727      -2.892
Davis College            1  7  543  666 -3.201   32 -3.675   32 -4.384   30 -4.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  3.539   31 -4.083   28 -3.920

NCCAA-II Midwest: strength=-2.345 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Bible             25 10 2775 2283 -0.520    1  0.122    1 -0.066    1 -0.023    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 16.656    2  0.077    1 -0.122
Northland Int'l         13  9 1617 1530 -1.753    8 -1.565    8 -1.593    8 -1.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.283   13 -1.620    5 -1.570
Maranatha Baptist        9 16 1604 1751 -1.475      -1.596      -1.627      -1.788      0.0000      0.0000      10.075      -2.286      -1.290
Lincoln Christian       17  7 1851 1687 -2.438   11 -1.788   11 -1.822   14 -2.101    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.263   15 -1.945   13 -2.258
Kuyper                   9 21 1980 2410 -1.679   16 -2.066   16 -2.157   18 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.287   16 -2.120   16 -2.527
Moody Bible              8 10 1106 1177 -2.557   23 -2.573   23 -2.662   23 -2.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  6.743   28 -3.505    9 -1.684
Great Lakes Christian    2 19 1312 1810 -2.667   28 -3.410   28 -3.767   28 -3.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  4.252   27 -3.342   31 -4.484
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.471   31 -3.624   31 -4.260   31 -4.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.568   35 -4.639   26 -3.570

NCCAA-II Mid East: strength=-3.898 (#8)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Campbellsville          26  8 2512 2135  0.294       1.306       0.933       0.870      0.0000      0.0000      20.648       0.453       1.287
Kentucky Christian      17 11 2157 2122 -1.999      -1.362      -1.370      -1.920      0.0000      0.0000      10.799      -1.891      -1.949
Ohio Christian          26  8 2893 2293 -2.166    7 -1.400    7 -1.412    7 -1.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.855   12 -1.469    7 -1.667
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.617   29 -3.529   29 -4.048   29 -3.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.048   29 -3.682   30 -4.230
Crown TN                 9 13 1501 1638 -4.067   30 -3.569   30 -4.122   32 -4.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.881   34 -4.465   29 -4.158
Johnson Bible            5 18 1571 2012 -4.050   34 -3.921   34 -4.838   34 -4.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  2.906   32 -4.335   34 -5.286
Boyce                    4 15 1058 1591 -4.799   37 -3.998   37 -5.030   37 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.505   37 -6.332   36 -5.383
Appalachian Bible        0 11  626 1002 -5.440   38 -4.536   38 -6.760   38 -7.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.851   38 -7.104   38 -7.136

NCCAA-II North Central: strength=-2.894 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
North Central MN        13 16 2082 2132 -1.730      -1.740      -1.748      -1.892      0.0000      0.0000       9.583      -1.883      -1.902
Faith Baptist Bible     18 12 2298 2087 -2.653   20 -2.431   20 -2.467   17 -2.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.432   19 -2.167   15 -2.472
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.765   27 -3.070   27 -3.147   25 -2.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.554   22 -2.261   27 -3.690
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.531   36 -3.986   36 -4.989   36 -5.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.594   36 -5.201   32 -5.016

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.333 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southeastern FL         24 13 2954 2683 -1.264      -0.775      -0.867      -0.794      0.0000      0.0000      13.213      -0.502      -1.086
Wesley MS               10 14 1874 1948 -1.198    6 -1.378    6 -1.387    6 -1.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.930    7 -0.874   12 -2.215
Atlanta Christian       19 16 2764 2643 -1.917   13 -1.831   13 -1.863   10 -1.809    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.313   11 -1.408   11 -2.209
Southeastern Bible       7 16 1786 2000 -1.656   17 -2.133   17 -2.243   15 -2.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.229   10 -1.224   22 -3.138
Clearwater Christian    11 15 1903 2039 -2.254   19 -2.319   19 -2.437   20 -2.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.524   17 -2.154   20 -2.777
Florida Christian       10 14 1785 1754 -2.243   22 -2.523   22 -2.592   16 -2.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.245   20 -2.249   14 -2.349
Toccoa Falls            11 14 1732 1887 -2.772   24 -2.646   24 -2.708   27 -3.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.433   26 -3.172   21 -2.888
Trinity FL               7 19 1783 2130 -2.177   26 -2.683   26 -2.758   26 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.433   25 -2.779   23 -3.225
Piedmont Baptist         5 21 1773 2301 -4.089   33 -3.894   33 -4.784   35 -4.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.886   33 -4.337   35 -5.335

NCCAA-II Southwest: strength=-1.716 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SW Christian            26 13 3376 3115 -1.437    3 -0.958    3 -1.023    5 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.583    3 -0.310   10 -1.906
Dallas Christian        14 24 2666 2842 -0.796    5 -1.274    5 -1.269    3 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.752    8 -0.967    2 -0.915
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.416   12 -1.818   12 -1.848   13 -1.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.197    9 -1.222   18 -2.685
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.589   25 -2.648   25 -2.709   24 -2.821    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.623   18 -2.161   25 -3.480

NCCAA-II West: strength=-1.992 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Portland Bible          18 15 2635 2467 -1.068    4 -0.992    4 -1.061    2 -0.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.499    6 -0.810    3 -1.062
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.934   14 -1.841   14 -1.875   19 -2.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.986    1  0.431   33 -5.150
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.574   21 -2.460   21 -2.504   21 -2.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.278   21 -2.251   19 -2.745

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II Southwest         68  83 0.450    1 -1.716
NCCAA-II West              36  56 0.391    2 -1.992
NCCAA-II South            104 142 0.423    3 -2.333
NCCAA-II Midwest           89 113 0.441    4 -2.345
NCCAA-II Central           68  74 0.479    5 -2.383
NCCAA-II East              48  69 0.410    6 -2.649
NCCAA-II North Central     41  51 0.446    7 -2.894
NCCAA-II Mid East          98 104 0.485    8 -3.898

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:06 2019

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.