Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.816    1 -0.953    1 -1.016    1 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.626    3 -1.063    2 -1.153
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.383    2 -1.296    2 -1.299    2 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.489    2 -0.996    3 -1.671
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.590    3 -1.607    3 -1.639    4 -1.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.238    7 -2.210    1 -0.857
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.013    4 -1.808    4 -1.832    3 -1.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.418    1 -0.350    6 -2.617
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.613    5 -2.051    5 -2.139    6 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.494    6 -1.981    4 -1.851
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.321    6 -2.327    6 -2.445    5 -1.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.667    4 -1.282    5 -2.505
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7 -2.800    7 -2.796    7 -2.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.172    5 -1.659    7 -3.955


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-0.483 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oklahoma Wesleyan       30  5 3134 2559 -0.118       1.232       0.857       0.702      0.0000      0.0000      20.246       1.485      -0.081
Dallas Baptist          18 13 2556 2450  0.439       0.865       0.576       0.637      0.0000      0.0000      19.060       1.629      -0.356
Colorado Christian      12 17 2031 2115  0.627       0.674       0.402       0.414      0.0000      0.0000      18.415       0.234       0.595
Mid-America Christian   19 19 2956 2959  0.276       0.458       0.240       0.199      0.0000      0.0000      17.762       0.859      -0.461
Central Christian KS    21 13 2927 2610 -0.881      -0.517      -0.619      -0.693      0.0000      0.0000      14.164       0.124      -1.510
York NE                 10 20 2273 2471 -0.337      -0.657      -0.740      -0.810      0.0000      0.0000      13.709      -0.192      -1.428
SW Assem of God         12 22 2532 2743 -0.588      -0.821      -0.910      -0.857      0.0000      0.0000      13.034      -0.537      -1.177
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.383    2 -1.296    2 -1.299    2 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.489    2 -0.996    3 -1.671
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.590    3 -1.607    3 -1.639    4 -1.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.238    7 -2.210    1 -0.857
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7 -2.800    7 -2.796    7 -2.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.172    5 -1.659    7 -3.955

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.395 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Malone                  13 16 2089 2077 -0.050      -0.141      -0.255      -0.126      0.0000      0.0000      15.829      -0.229      -0.023
Roberts Wesleyan        16 12 2170 1917 -0.405      -0.198      -0.320      -0.087      0.0000      0.0000      15.699       0.033      -0.207
Nyack                   12 15 1972 2035 -0.271      -0.233      -0.352      -0.314      0.0000      0.0000      15.467       0.049      -0.676
Geneva                  16 12 2065 2043 -0.831      -0.521      -0.623      -0.765      0.0000      0.0000      14.106      -0.541      -0.989
Mt Vernon Nazarene      13 16 2148 2171 -0.503      -0.579      -0.652      -0.621      0.0000      0.0000      14.090      -0.369      -0.873

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.735 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
King TN                 25  7 2669 2222  0.172       1.281       0.907       0.838      0.0000      0.0000      20.467       1.104       0.572
Mid-Continent           24 15 3045 2800  0.007       0.487       0.271       0.348      0.0000      0.0000      17.895       0.603       0.094
Oakland City            20 10 2488 2071 -1.236      -0.217      -0.338      -0.799      0.0000      0.0000      15.086      -0.620      -0.979
Bryan                   18 11 2016 1801 -0.864      -0.531      -0.633      -0.429      0.0000      0.0000      14.314      -1.303       0.445
Bluefield VA            15 19 2422 2522 -0.720      -0.792      -0.881      -0.824      0.0000      0.0000      13.240      -0.895      -0.754
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.816    1 -0.953    1 -1.016    1 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.626    3 -1.063    2 -1.153
Asbury                  15 19 2670 2727 -0.930      -0.984      -1.051      -1.091      0.0000      0.0000      12.496      -0.549      -1.633
Cincinnati Christian U. 16 18 3161 3063 -0.983      -1.027      -1.094      -0.966      0.0000      0.0000      12.405       0.865      -2.798
Covenant                 3 23 1579 2057 -1.275      -2.153      -2.269      -2.414      0.0000      0.0000       7.932      -2.737      -2.091

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.385 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Indiana Wesleyan        30  6 2738 2315  0.271       1.530       1.142       1.040      0.0000      0.0000      21.257       0.734       1.345
Spring Arbor            23 12 2421 2304  0.276       0.985       0.665       0.400      0.0000      0.0000      19.338      -0.059       0.859
Cedarville              26  9 2843 2513 -0.005       0.807       0.528       0.565      0.0000      0.0000      18.917       1.008       0.121
Grace IN                17 16 2407 2485  0.206       0.448       0.228      -0.070      0.0000      0.0000      17.563       0.205      -0.346
Huntington IN           15 15 2299 2189  0.190       0.265       0.081       0.227      0.0000      0.0000      17.246       0.600      -0.147
Taylor                  11 20 2066 2047 -0.083      -0.504      -0.604      -0.199      0.0000      0.0000      14.421      -0.852       0.454

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.523 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bethel IN               28  7 2853 2414  0.203       1.321       0.949       0.910      0.0000      0.0000      20.662       1.258       0.562
Olivet Nazarene         19 12 2357 2092  0.247       0.689       0.416       0.502      0.0000      0.0000      18.602       0.495       0.508
Northwestern MN         22  7 2139 1894 -0.751      -0.041      -0.145      -0.153      0.0000      0.0000      16.098      -0.272      -0.034
Judson IL               17 17 2827 2833 -0.577      -0.516      -0.617      -0.459      0.0000      0.0000      14.178       0.533      -1.450
Trinity Christian       12 18 2276 2408 -0.947      -1.115      -1.153      -1.151      0.0000      0.0000      12.064      -0.682      -1.621
Trinity Int'l            6 26 2434 2768 -0.617      -1.525      -1.550      -1.181      0.0000      0.0000      10.607      -0.353      -2.010
Greenville              13 13 2073 2052 -1.782      -1.656      -1.695      -1.625      0.0000      0.0000      10.007      -0.766      -2.485

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.741 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Chowan                  18 10 1970 1885  0.265       0.947       0.628       0.538      0.0000      0.0000      19.353       0.336       0.741
Emmanuel GA             20 12 2475 2255 -0.329       0.146      -0.049       0.063      0.0000      0.0000      16.795       0.219      -0.093
Palm Beach Atlantic      6 25 2006 2261  0.330      -0.376      -0.499      -0.143      0.0000      0.0000      14.896      -0.489       0.203
Southern Wesleyan       13 18 2435 2454 -0.329      -0.418      -0.547      -0.380      0.0000      0.0000      14.664       0.491      -1.250
North Greenville        16 13 2327 2194 -0.828      -0.508      -0.610      -0.495      0.0000      0.0000      14.339      -0.019      -0.972
Truett-McConnell         7 25 2146 2584 -0.878      -1.459      -1.464      -1.702      0.0000      0.0000      10.641      -1.609      -1.795
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.013    4 -1.808    4 -1.832    3 -1.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.418    1 -0.350    6 -2.617
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.613    5 -2.051    5 -2.139    6 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.494    6 -1.981    4 -1.851

NCCAA-I West: strength=-1.092 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
The Master's College    19 14 2198 2142  0.187       0.653       0.383       0.264      0.0000      0.0000      18.239      -0.265       0.793
Hope Int'l               4 27 1839 2253 -0.099      -1.160      -1.193      -1.003      0.0000      0.0000      12.016      -1.478      -0.528
Simpson CA               9 21 2057 2353 -0.885      -1.337      -1.343      -1.434      0.0000      0.0000      11.056      -1.228      -1.640
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.321    6 -2.327    6 -2.445    5 -1.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.667    4 -1.282    5 -2.505

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest           122  78 0.610    1  0.385
NCCAA-I East               70  71 0.496    2 -0.395
NCCAA-I Central           154 148 0.510    3 -0.483
NCCAA-I North Central     117 100 0.539    4 -0.523
NCCAA-I Mideast           150 140 0.517    5 -0.735
NCCAA-I South              88 145 0.378    6 -0.741
NCCAA-I West               35  84 0.294    7 -1.092

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:06 2019

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