Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             32  5 3156 2401  0.321    1  1.577    1  1.179    1  1.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 21.597    4  1.366    1  1.147
UBC                     25  5 2475 2123  0.266    2  1.518    2  1.131    2  1.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.236    3  1.397    2  0.741
Saskatchewan            26  8 3035 2600  0.193    3  1.178    3  0.811    3  1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 20.171    1  1.995    9  0.084
UCCB                    29  4 3024 2430 -0.355    4  1.065    4  0.703    4  0.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.759    2  1.623   22 -0.404
Calgary                 23  9 2578 2294  0.129    5  0.944    5  0.626    7  0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 19.359    8  0.739    7  0.280
Windsor                 23 12 2719 2602  0.244    6  0.924    6  0.617    8  0.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 19.095    7  0.843   11  0.056
Lakehead                25  8 2467 2287 -0.069    7  0.894    7  0.605   10  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.966   15  0.100    5  0.305
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.386    8  0.870    8  0.581    9  0.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.968    9  0.503   14 -0.080
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.067    9  0.742    9  0.470    5  0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 18.814    5  1.045    8  0.149
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.051   10  0.717   10  0.444    6  0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 18.720    6  0.862    6  0.280
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.105   11  0.565   11  0.352   14  0.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 17.982   14  0.183   16 -0.128
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.199   12  0.343   13  0.133   11  0.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 17.453   11  0.333   13 -0.031
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.002   13  0.324   12  0.140   12  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 17.258   10  0.377   18 -0.218
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.127   14  0.297   14  0.114   17 -0.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 17.272   23 -0.136   15 -0.121
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.437   15  0.200   15  0.013   22 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 16.886   39 -0.854    4  0.309
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.127   16  0.047   16 -0.101   18 -0.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 16.421   13  0.249   25 -0.713
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.430   17  0.033   17 -0.116   27 -0.578    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 16.278   37 -0.820   20 -0.336
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.109   18 -0.095   18 -0.203   20 -0.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 15.994   32 -0.546   12  0.029
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030 -0.016   19 -0.104   19 -0.212   16 -0.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 16.026   33 -0.658    3  0.430
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.040   20 -0.132   20 -0.244   15 -0.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 15.833   21 -0.050   17 -0.130
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.487   21 -0.143   21 -0.257   21 -0.270    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 15.804   20 -0.032   24 -0.508
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.127   22 -0.145   22 -0.259   19 -0.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 15.887   12  0.317   30 -0.831
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.233   23 -0.165   23 -0.285   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 15.776   17  0.069   10  0.061
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.050   24 -0.203   24 -0.325   28 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 15.372   35 -0.739   23 -0.427
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.365   25 -0.299   25 -0.417   25 -0.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 15.251   18  0.006   28 -0.768
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.413   26 -0.357   26 -0.479   23 -0.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 14.927   24 -0.236   21 -0.379
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.161   27 -0.423   27 -0.552   24 -0.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 14.724   26 -0.311   19 -0.315
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.314   28 -0.493   28 -0.592   33 -0.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 14.226   22 -0.124   34 -1.343
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.580   29 -0.515   29 -0.617   35 -0.786    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 14.028   36 -0.790   29 -0.782
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.324   30 -0.518   30 -0.619   34 -0.775    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 14.146   34 -0.677   31 -0.873
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.314   31 -0.577   31 -0.651   29 -0.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 14.033   31 -0.496   26 -0.740
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.767   32 -0.616   32 -0.694   31 -0.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.887   19 -0.023   35 -1.376
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.505   33 -0.624   33 -0.702   26 -0.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.941   27 -0.373   27 -0.767
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.321   34 -0.933   34 -0.990   32 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.798   30 -0.482   32 -0.937
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.715   35 -0.991   35 -1.060   37 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 12.388   40 -1.174   33 -1.029
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.634   36 -1.087   36 -1.123   36 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.237   28 -0.414   38 -1.468
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.384   37 -1.091   37 -1.127   30 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 12.328   16  0.093   36 -1.425
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.501   38 -1.107   38 -1.143   38 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.122   25 -0.289   41 -1.966
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.801   39 -1.468   39 -1.475   40 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.764   38 -0.843   39 -1.735
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.634   40 -1.630   40 -1.665   39 -1.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.290   29 -0.422   40 -1.921
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.265   41 -1.815   41 -1.845   42 -1.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.372   41 -1.425   42 -2.331
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.692   42 -1.896   42 -1.939   41 -1.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.127   42 -1.563   37 -1.467
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.798   43 -2.548   43 -2.620   43 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  6.573   43 -3.076   43 -3.588


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.615 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UCCB                    29  4 3024 2430 -0.355    4  1.065    4  0.703    4  0.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.759    2  1.623   22 -0.404
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.386    8  0.870    8  0.581    9  0.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.968    9  0.503   14 -0.080
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.437   15  0.200   15  0.013   22 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 16.886   39 -0.854    4  0.309
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.487   21 -0.143   21 -0.257   21 -0.270    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 15.804   20 -0.032   24 -0.508
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.767   32 -0.616   32 -0.694   31 -0.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.887   19 -0.023   35 -1.376
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.801   39 -1.468   39 -1.475   40 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.764   38 -0.843   39 -1.735
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.634   40 -1.630   40 -1.665   39 -1.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.290   29 -0.422   40 -1.921
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.265   41 -1.815   41 -1.845   42 -1.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.372   41 -1.425   42 -2.331

Canada West: strength=-0.129 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     25  5 2475 2123  0.266    2  1.518    2  1.131    2  1.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.236    3  1.397    2  0.741
Saskatchewan            26  8 3035 2600  0.193    3  1.178    3  0.811    3  1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 20.171    1  1.995    9  0.084
Calgary                 23  9 2578 2294  0.129    5  0.944    5  0.626    7  0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 19.359    8  0.739    7  0.280
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.105   11  0.565   11  0.352   14  0.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 17.982   14  0.183   16 -0.128
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.199   12  0.343   13  0.133   11  0.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 17.453   11  0.333   13 -0.031
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.002   13  0.324   12  0.140   12  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 17.258   10  0.377   18 -0.218
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.127   16  0.047   16 -0.101   18 -0.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 16.421   13  0.249   25 -0.713
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.109   18 -0.095   18 -0.203   20 -0.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 15.994   32 -0.546   12  0.029
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.040   20 -0.132   20 -0.244   15 -0.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 15.833   21 -0.050   17 -0.130
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.050   24 -0.203   24 -0.325   28 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 15.372   35 -0.739   23 -0.427
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.314   28 -0.493   28 -0.592   33 -0.734    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 14.226   22 -0.124   34 -1.343
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.384   37 -1.091   37 -1.127   30 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 12.328   16  0.093   36 -1.425
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.501   38 -1.107   38 -1.143   38 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.122   25 -0.289   41 -1.966
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.692   42 -1.896   42 -1.939   41 -1.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.127   42 -1.563   37 -1.467

Ontario Univ Athletics: strength=-0.172 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             32  5 3156 2401  0.321    1  1.577    1  1.179    1  1.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 21.597    4  1.366    1  1.147
Windsor                 23 12 2719 2602  0.244    6  0.924    6  0.617    8  0.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 19.095    7  0.843   11  0.056
Lakehead                25  8 2467 2287 -0.069    7  0.894    7  0.605   10  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.966   15  0.100    5  0.305
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.067    9  0.742    9  0.470    5  0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 18.814    5  1.045    8  0.149
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.051   10  0.717   10  0.444    6  0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 18.720    6  0.862    6  0.280
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.127   14  0.297   14  0.114   17 -0.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 17.272   23 -0.136   15 -0.121
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.430   17  0.033   17 -0.116   27 -0.578    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 16.278   37 -0.820   20 -0.336
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030 -0.016   19 -0.104   19 -0.212   16 -0.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 16.026   33 -0.658    3  0.430
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.127   22 -0.145   22 -0.259   19 -0.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 15.887   12  0.317   30 -0.831
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.233   23 -0.165   23 -0.285   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 15.776   17  0.069   10  0.061
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.161   27 -0.423   27 -0.552   24 -0.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 14.724   26 -0.311   19 -0.315
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.324   30 -0.518   30 -0.619   34 -0.775    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 14.146   34 -0.677   31 -0.873
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.314   31 -0.577   31 -0.651   29 -0.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 14.033   31 -0.496   26 -0.740
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.321   34 -0.933   34 -0.990   32 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.798   30 -0.482   32 -0.937
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.634   36 -1.087   36 -1.123   36 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.237   28 -0.414   38 -1.468
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.798   43 -2.548   43 -2.620   43 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  6.573   43 -3.076   43 -3.588

QSSF: strength=-0.674 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.365   25 -0.299   25 -0.417   25 -0.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 15.251   18  0.006   28 -0.768
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.413   26 -0.357   26 -0.479   23 -0.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 14.927   24 -0.236   21 -0.379
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.580   29 -0.515   29 -0.617   35 -0.786    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 14.028   36 -0.790   29 -0.782
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.505   33 -0.624   33 -0.702   26 -0.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.941   27 -0.373   27 -0.767
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.715   35 -0.991   35 -1.060   37 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 12.388   40 -1.174   33 -1.029

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Canada West               192 202 0.487    1 -0.129
Ontario Univ Athletics    255 249 0.506    2 -0.172
CIS-Atlantic              124 116 0.517    3 -0.615
QSSF                       62  79 0.440    4 -0.674

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:06 2019

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