Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Clark St CC              4  1  364  339 -2.229    1 -1.570    1 -1.636    3 -2.476    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.908   12 -3.008    3 -1.944
Miami-Hamilton          15  6 1921 1853 -2.818    2 -1.908    2 -2.017    4 -2.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.766    2 -1.541    9 -3.597
Westcliff                1 21 1373 1867 -0.666    3 -2.417    3 -2.542    2 -2.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.541    8 -2.486    2 -1.812
Cheyney                  1 19 1256 1683 -0.606    4 -2.499    4 -2.637    1 -2.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.382    7 -2.472    1 -1.675
Miami-Middletown        12  9 1768 1806 -3.125    5 -2.708    5 -2.884    8 -3.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.348    9 -2.646    8 -3.432
Sisseton Wahpeton       15  2 1831 1469 -4.070    6 -2.763    6 -2.983    6 -2.834    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.336    1 -1.311   14 -4.356
Leech Lake              12  2 1333 1122 -4.413    7 -3.011    7 -3.286   12 -3.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.317   11 -2.951   12 -4.266
Akron-Wayne              4 12 1328 1497 -2.671    8 -3.022    8 -3.296    9 -3.194    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.368    4 -2.375   10 -4.013
Ohio U-Eastern           6  9 1376 1499 -3.084    9 -3.104    9 -3.438   10 -3.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.107    3 -1.931   18 -4.868
Salish Kootenai          1 15 1135 1873 -2.113   10 -3.130   10 -3.486   15 -3.996    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.694    5 -2.378   23 -5.614
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oglala Lakota            1  6  430  687 -2.779   11 -3.156   11 -3.550   16 -4.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.538   17 -4.098   11 -4.085
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  833  922 -3.282   12 -3.369   12 -3.861   13 -3.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.874   10 -2.923   15 -4.410
Red River               13  7 1635 1476 -4.282   13 -3.405   13 -3.921   14 -3.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.812   18 -4.125    7 -3.342
Barber-Scotia            0  1   57   61 -1.585   14 -3.409   14 -3.933    7 -2.997    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.498   13 -3.627    4 -2.368
U of the Bahamas         0  4  300  332 -1.567   15 -3.496   15 -4.092    5 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.992    6 -2.423    5 -2.752
Ohio U-Chillicothe       1 12  815 1204 -2.579   16 -3.560   16 -4.255   11 -3.472    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.378   14 -3.755    6 -3.190
Northwest Indian         0 11  597 1348  0.931   17 -3.612   17 -4.392   20 -5.100    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.509   20 -4.774   22 -5.425
North American U.        1 10  744  966 -2.939   18 -3.625   18 -4.418   17 -4.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.074   15 -3.972   13 -4.332
Canadian Mennonite       6 12 1476 1538 -4.602   19 -3.958   19 -5.048   19 -4.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.973   19 -4.324   19 -4.894
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  8  632  824 -3.253   20 -4.107   20 -5.210   18 -4.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  1.628   16 -3.979   20 -5.182
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio St-Mansfield        0 13  766 1287 -3.149   21 -4.125   21 -5.280   21 -5.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  1.553   21 -5.404   17 -4.863
Patrick Henry            0  4  174  362 -2.263   22 -4.244   22 -5.658   24 -7.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.817   24 -8.408   24 -7.422
Union NE                 0 12  732 1038 -4.148   23 -4.381   23 -6.072   22 -5.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  0.733   23 -5.864   16 -4.834
Cooper Union             1  2  187  189 -6.412   24 -4.460   24 -6.261   23 -5.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  0.462   22 -5.804   21 -5.246


Indep: strength=-3.675 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Clark St CC              4  1  364  339 -2.229    1 -1.570    1 -1.636    3 -2.476    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.908   12 -3.008    3 -1.944
Westcliff                1 21 1373 1867 -0.666    3 -2.417    3 -2.542    2 -2.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.541    8 -2.486    2 -1.812
Cheyney                  1 19 1256 1683 -0.606    4 -2.499    4 -2.637    1 -2.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.382    7 -2.472    1 -1.675
Salish Kootenai          1 15 1135 1873 -2.113   10 -3.130   10 -3.486   15 -3.996    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.694    5 -2.378   23 -5.614
Oglala Lakota            1  6  430  687 -2.779   11 -3.156   11 -3.550   16 -4.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.538   17 -4.098   11 -4.085
Barber-Scotia            0  1   57   61 -1.585   14 -3.409   14 -3.933    7 -2.997    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.498   13 -3.627    4 -2.368
U of the Bahamas         0  4  300  332 -1.567   15 -3.496   15 -4.092    5 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.992    6 -2.423    5 -2.752
Northwest Indian         0 11  597 1348  0.931   17 -3.612   17 -4.392   20 -5.100    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.509   20 -4.774   22 -5.425
North American U.        1 10  744  966 -2.939   18 -3.625   18 -4.418   17 -4.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.074   15 -3.972   13 -4.332
Patrick Henry            0  4  174  362 -2.263   22 -4.244   22 -5.658   24 -7.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.817   24 -8.408   24 -7.422
Union NE                 0 12  732 1038 -4.148   23 -4.381   23 -6.072   22 -5.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  0.733   23 -5.864   16 -4.834
Cooper Union             1  2  187  189 -6.412   24 -4.460   24 -6.261   23 -5.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  0.462   22 -5.804   21 -5.246

MBCAC-NIAC: strength=-4.647 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Sisseton Wahpeton       15  2 1831 1469 -4.070    6 -2.763    6 -2.983    6 -2.834    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.336    1 -1.311   14 -4.356
Red River               13  7 1635 1476 -4.282   13 -3.405   13 -3.921   14 -3.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.812   18 -4.125    7 -3.342
Oak Hills Christian      5 15 1410 1947 -3.886      -3.577      -4.303      -4.714      0.0000      0.0000       3.066      -4.467      -4.960
AFLBS                    8 17 1915 2293 -4.108      -3.623      -4.416      -4.535      0.0000      0.0000       2.930      -4.122      -4.948
Turtle Mountain          4 11 1324 1571 -4.637      -3.890      -4.928      -5.108      0.0000      0.0000       1.870      -3.644      -6.571
Canadian Mennonite       6 12 1476 1538 -4.602   19 -3.958   19 -5.048   19 -4.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.973   19 -4.324   19 -4.894
Providence MB            6 24 2357 2822 -4.321      -3.991      -5.096      -4.766      0.0000      0.0000       1.755      -3.979      -5.553
Trinity Bible            4 21 1848 2473 -4.386      -4.092      -5.177      -5.450      0.0000      0.0000       1.558      -4.936      -5.963

NIAC-MCAC: strength=-3.521 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Leech Lake              12  2 1333 1122 -4.413    7 -3.011    7 -3.286   12 -3.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.317   11 -2.951   12 -4.266

ORCC: strength=-3.595 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          15  6 1921 1853 -2.818    2 -1.908    2 -2.017    4 -2.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.766    2 -1.541    9 -3.597
Miami-Middletown        12  9 1768 1806 -3.125    5 -2.708    5 -2.884    8 -3.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.348    9 -2.646    8 -3.432
Akron-Wayne              4 12 1328 1497 -2.671    8 -3.022    8 -3.296    9 -3.194    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.368    4 -2.375   10 -4.013
Ohio U-Eastern           6  9 1376 1499 -3.084    9 -3.104    9 -3.438   10 -3.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.107    3 -1.931   18 -4.868
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  833  922 -3.282   12 -3.369   12 -3.861   13 -3.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.874   10 -2.923   15 -4.410
Ohio U-Chillicothe       1 12  815 1204 -2.579   16 -3.560   16 -4.255   11 -3.472    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.378   14 -3.755    6 -3.190
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  8  632  824 -3.253   20 -4.107   20 -5.210   18 -4.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  1.628   16 -3.979   20 -5.182
Ohio St-Mansfield        0 13  766 1287 -3.149   21 -4.125   21 -5.280   21 -5.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  1.553   21 -5.404   17 -4.863

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NIAC-MCAC        12   2 0.857    1 -3.521
ORCC             41  76 0.350    2 -3.595
Indep            10 106 0.086    3 -3.675
MBCAC-NIAC       61 109 0.359    4 -4.647

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:42 2022

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