Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Christian         19 12 2523 2335 -0.658    1 -0.422    1 -0.536    1 -0.524    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.216    2 -0.505    1 -0.543
Great Lakes Christian   21 16 3025 2950 -1.289    2 -0.984    2 -1.110    4 -1.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.105    4 -0.880    5 -1.764
Johnson TN              15 15 2726 2670 -1.163    3 -1.136    3 -1.248    3 -1.226    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.679    1  0.139    9 -2.591
Randall                 14 15 2359 2190 -1.087    4 -1.532    4 -1.590    2 -1.059    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.600    5 -1.053    2 -1.065
Arlington Baptist       16 21 2769 3046 -1.591    5 -1.709    5 -1.789    5 -1.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.637    7 -1.800    6 -1.894
Champion Christian       9 12 1546 1769 -1.985    6 -1.994    6 -2.128    9 -2.328    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  8.612   10 -2.122    8 -2.534
Bob Jones U.             9 19 1836 2151 -1.826    7 -2.271    7 -2.338    7 -2.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  7.984   18 -2.897    3 -1.586
Simmons KY               5 15 1371 1614 -1.398    8 -2.287    8 -2.360    6 -2.087    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.049   13 -2.457    4 -1.718
Trinity Baptist         15 18 2224 2482 -2.306    9 -2.295    9 -2.372   11 -2.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.833   22 -3.236    7 -1.941
Kansas Christian        14 13 2254 2214 -2.284   10 -2.309   10 -2.394    8 -2.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.926    6 -1.793   10 -2.754
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson FL               7 19 1898 2309 -1.875   11 -2.374   11 -2.482   10 -2.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.516   12 -2.240   12 -2.900
Dallas Christian         3 22 1852 2468 -1.651   12 -2.728   12 -2.912   14 -2.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  6.441    8 -1.963   23 -3.695
Manhattan Christian      9 17 1894 2254 -2.718   13 -2.850   13 -3.080   16 -3.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.905   17 -2.764   14 -3.285
SW Adventist             6 13 1308 1505 -2.621   14 -2.873   14 -3.111   22 -3.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.858   23 -3.614   11 -2.848
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    12 17 2440 2718 -3.057   15 -2.908   16 -3.159   20 -3.176    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.549    9 -2.031   27 -4.320
Welch                    6 23 2281 2732 -2.180   16 -2.930   17 -3.191   13 -2.754    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.756   11 -2.162   15 -3.347
Boyce                    5 25 2108 2746 -2.248   17 -2.950   15 -3.158   19 -3.166    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.561   20 -2.950   18 -3.382
Southeastern Baptist     2 14 1159 1598 -1.973   18 -2.974   18 -3.204   23 -3.240    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.595   14 -2.470   26 -4.011
Pensacola Christian      5 25 2159 2604 -2.142   19 -2.989   19 -3.232   15 -2.997    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.622   16 -2.615   17 -3.379
Trinity FL               3  8  741  867 -2.756   20 -3.016   20 -3.287   24 -3.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.302   25 -3.709   13 -3.037
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ozark Christian         11 19 2410 2624 -2.884   21 -3.038   21 -3.322   17 -3.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.343   15 -2.517   21 -3.611
Toccoa Falls             6 23 2016 2485 -2.452   22 -3.041   22 -3.324   21 -3.204    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.316   21 -3.048   16 -3.361
SAGU Amer Ind            0  7  655  825 -1.046   23 -3.060   23 -3.366   12 -2.637    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.481    3 -0.506   28 -4.767
Barclay                  8 23 2326 2740 -2.678   24 -3.067   24 -3.388   18 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  5.208   19 -2.907   19 -3.398
Calvary                  9 15 1709 1964 -3.609   25 -3.335   25 -3.811   27 -3.974    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.890   29 -4.234   24 -3.714
Emmaus Bible             5 20 1724 2288 -3.301   26 -3.412   26 -3.942   26 -3.804    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.674   26 -3.760   25 -3.848
Moody Bible              2 15 1019 1477 -3.048   27 -3.439   27 -3.988   28 -4.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  3.537   31 -4.590   20 -3.508
Portland Bible           0 21 1309 2061 -2.001   28 -3.542   28 -4.204   25 -3.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.478   24 -3.632   22 -3.634
Oak Hills Christian      5 15 1410 1947 -3.886   29 -3.577   29 -4.303   30 -4.714    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.066   30 -4.467   30 -4.960
Faith Baptist Bible      5 20 1622 2215 -4.221   30 -3.826   30 -4.809   32 -5.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.205   33 -5.439   29 -4.943
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Appalachian Bible        1 10  774 1044 -3.804   31 -3.864   31 -4.879   29 -4.636    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.259   27 -3.977   31 -5.295
Providence MB            6 24 2357 2822 -4.321   32 -3.991   32 -5.096   31 -4.766    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  1.755   28 -3.979   32 -5.553
Trinity Bible            4 21 1848 2473 -4.386   33 -4.092   33 -5.177   33 -5.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.558   32 -4.936   33 -5.963


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.667 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian      9 17 1894 2254 -2.718   13 -2.850   13 -3.080   16 -3.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.905   17 -2.764   14 -3.285
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    12 17 2440 2718 -3.057   15 -2.908   16 -3.159   20 -3.176    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.549    9 -2.031   27 -4.320
Ozark Christian         11 19 2410 2624 -2.884   21 -3.038   21 -3.322   17 -3.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.343   15 -2.517   21 -3.611
Barclay                  8 23 2326 2740 -2.678   24 -3.067   24 -3.388   18 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  5.208   19 -2.907   19 -3.398
Calvary                  9 15 1709 1964 -3.609   25 -3.335   25 -3.811   27 -3.974    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.890   29 -4.234   24 -3.714
Emmaus Bible             5 20 1724 2288 -3.301   26 -3.412   26 -3.942   26 -3.804    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.674   26 -3.760   25 -3.848
Faith Baptist Bible      5 20 1622 2215 -4.221   30 -3.826   30 -4.809   32 -5.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.205   33 -5.439   29 -4.943

NCCAA-II N: strength=-4.397 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Moody Bible              2 15 1019 1477 -3.048   27 -3.439   27 -3.988   28 -4.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  3.537   31 -4.590   20 -3.508

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.175 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Randall                 14 15 2359 2190 -1.087    4 -1.532    4 -1.590    2 -1.059    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.600    5 -1.053    2 -1.065
Arlington Baptist       16 21 2769 3046 -1.591    5 -1.709    5 -1.789    5 -1.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.637    7 -1.800    6 -1.894
Kansas Christian        14 13 2254 2214 -2.284   10 -2.309   10 -2.394    8 -2.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.926    6 -1.793   10 -2.754
Dallas Christian         3 22 1852 2468 -1.651   12 -2.728   12 -2.912   14 -2.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  6.441    8 -1.963   23 -3.695
SW Adventist             6 13 1308 1505 -2.621   14 -2.873   14 -3.111   22 -3.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.858   23 -3.614   11 -2.848

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.873 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bob Jones U.             9 19 1836 2151 -1.826    7 -2.271    7 -2.338    7 -2.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  7.984   18 -2.897    3 -1.586
Trinity Baptist         15 18 2224 2482 -2.306    9 -2.295    9 -2.372   11 -2.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.833   22 -3.236    7 -1.941
Johnson FL               7 19 1898 2309 -1.875   11 -2.374   11 -2.482   10 -2.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.516   12 -2.240   12 -2.900
Southeastern Baptist     2 14 1159 1598 -1.973   18 -2.974   18 -3.204   23 -3.240    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.595   14 -2.470   26 -4.011
Pensacola Christian      5 25 2159 2604 -2.142   19 -2.989   19 -3.232   15 -2.997    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.622   16 -2.615   17 -3.379
Trinity FL               3  8  741  867 -2.756   20 -3.016   20 -3.287   24 -3.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.302   25 -3.709   13 -3.037
Toccoa Falls             6 23 2016 2485 -2.452   22 -3.041   22 -3.324   21 -3.204    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.316   21 -3.048   16 -3.361

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II SW      53  84 0.387    1 -2.175
NCCAA-II South   47 126 0.272    2 -2.873
Midwest Chr      59 131 0.311    3 -3.667
NCCAA-II N        2  15 0.118    4 -4.397

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:42 2022

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