Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Berkeley-NY             21  6 2462 2040 -1.310    1 -0.374    1 -0.482    3 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.256    2 -0.399   10 -1.569
Villa Maria             25  4 2614 2207 -1.707    2 -0.587    2 -0.680    1 -0.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.643    1 -0.314    9 -1.512
Johnson & Wales NC      21 10 2591 2514 -1.248    3 -0.644    3 -0.743    2 -0.982    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 13.339    4 -0.538    7 -1.426
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    22  5 2117 1776 -1.958    4 -0.960    4 -1.083    5 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.275   10 -1.557    3 -0.888
Southern Maine CC       22  4 2194 1648 -2.174    5 -1.119    5 -1.231    4 -1.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.936   12 -1.676    2 -0.728
New Hampshire Tech      23  6 2797 2252 -2.204    6 -1.356    6 -1.429    7 -1.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 11.029    3 -0.425   16 -2.534
Central Penn            13 15 2063 2164 -1.267    7 -1.391    7 -1.469    6 -1.387    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.895    9 -1.435    6 -1.338
Penn St-York            20  9 2190 1962 -2.038    8 -1.516    8 -1.573    9 -1.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.370   16 -2.029    4 -1.154
Vermont Tech            24 10 2883 2553 -2.192    9 -1.561    9 -1.624   10 -1.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.139    7 -1.310   13 -2.127
Andrews                 12 11 1593 1525 -1.600   10 -1.608   10 -1.649    8 -1.532    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 10.120   23 -2.518    1 -0.547
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Cal Miramar              2  5  488  603 -1.077   11 -1.622   11 -1.664   15 -2.213    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.780   13 -1.855   18 -2.571
Penn St-Mont Alto       20  9 2192 1983 -2.210   12 -1.668   12 -1.725   11 -1.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.836   18 -2.188    8 -1.488
Warren Wilson           11 20 2790 3017 -1.709   13 -2.028   14 -2.165   13 -2.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  8.660    5 -0.578   34 -3.601
Camp U-Harrodsburg       7 12 1459 1628 -1.818   14 -2.038   13 -2.154   22 -2.387    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.577   20 -2.217   17 -2.557
Cincinnati-Clermont     13  6 1598 1419 -2.643   15 -2.055   15 -2.177   14 -2.131    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.587   14 -1.970   14 -2.292
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  9 1791 1675 -2.459   16 -2.063   16 -2.185   17 -2.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.565   19 -2.192   15 -2.312
Penn St-Beaver          14 10 1648 1539 -2.401   17 -2.095   18 -2.231   16 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.511   37 -3.178    5 -1.317
Penn St-Shenango        15 12 1874 1887 -2.389   18 -2.107   17 -2.217   20 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  8.459   34 -3.042   12 -1.714
Penn St-Brandywine      14 12 2014 1994 -2.374   19 -2.140   19 -2.261   21 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  8.435   17 -2.165   19 -2.591
Davis College           13  7 1597 1523 -3.002   20 -2.299   20 -2.378   27 -2.861    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.753   25 -2.673   27 -3.050
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
East-West                2 28 2169 2850 -0.770   21 -2.308   21 -2.386   18 -2.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.906   11 -1.671   22 -2.861
Wright St-Lake           7 19 2115 2518 -1.713   22 -2.311   22 -2.395   24 -2.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.817    8 -1.400   35 -3.701
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.320   23 -2.336   23 -2.429   23 -2.539    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.639   22 -2.391   20 -2.687
Central Maine CC        15 10 2065 1916 -2.830   24 -2.432   24 -2.573   25 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  7.222   24 -2.520   21 -2.737
Penn St-Hazleton        10 13 1604 1574 -2.335   25 -2.453   25 -2.597   19 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  7.332   33 -3.003   11 -1.640
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.479   26 -2.613   26 -2.817   30 -3.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.658   35 -3.120   23 -2.911
Kent St-Tuscarawas       5 19 1692 2073 -2.027   27 -2.687   27 -2.852   29 -2.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  6.517   27 -2.745   29 -3.080
Camp U-Somerset          3 16 1530 1759 -1.637   28 -2.754   28 -2.953   12 -2.067    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  6.615    6 -1.207   24 -2.928
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.675   29 -2.825   29 -3.040   26 -2.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  6.178   21 -2.368   30 -3.113
Albany Pharmacy          8 12 1536 1597 -2.816   30 -2.864   30 -3.099   28 -2.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  5.991   29 -2.792   26 -2.995
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.317   31 -2.880   31 -3.120   35 -3.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.712   26 -2.681   42 -4.485
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.552   32 -2.910   32 -3.162   31 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.725   36 -3.143   31 -3.160
SUNY-ESF                 7  9 1225 1275 -3.165   33 -3.000   33 -3.253   33 -3.382    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  5.465   38 -3.286   32 -3.479
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.964   34 -3.222   34 -3.643   32 -3.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  4.733   28 -2.761   38 -3.856
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -3.064   35 -3.273   35 -3.708   43 -4.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.483   30 -2.815   44 -5.262
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.856   36 -3.361   36 -3.846   37 -3.703    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  3.929   15 -1.984   47 -5.422
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.895   37 -3.378   37 -3.876   34 -3.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  3.978   32 -2.955   40 -4.080
Five Towns               7  7 1154 1109 -3.839   38 -3.385   39 -3.894   36 -3.647    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  4.362   31 -2.893   41 -4.400
Williamson Trade         3 17 1210 1546 -2.802   39 -3.388   38 -3.893   38 -3.708    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  3.859   43 -4.451   25 -2.966
Christendom              6 14 1261 1487 -3.473   40 -3.476   40 -4.067   39 -3.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  3.605   44 -4.565   28 -3.061
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern St OH           4 14 1211 1436 -3.507   41 -3.589   41 -4.324   42 -4.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  3.157   42 -4.447   33 -3.566
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.299   42 -3.603   42 -4.345   44 -4.063    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  3.141   41 -4.178   39 -3.948
Georgia NW Tech          2  5  527  564 -3.843   43 -3.617   43 -4.405   41 -3.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  3.058   40 -4.044   36 -3.787
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.851   44 -3.693   44 -4.538   40 -3.863    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  2.928   39 -3.888   37 -3.839
Vaughn                   3  6  591  793 -5.136   45 -3.726   45 -4.622   46 -5.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  2.386   46 -5.471   49 -5.586
Crown TN                 2 17 1378 1770 -3.839   46 -3.930   46 -4.997   45 -4.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  1.850   45 -4.579   45 -5.291
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.685   47 -4.276   47 -5.768   50 -6.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.904   49 -7.657   50 -6.208
King's NY                2 12  783 1149 -5.289   48 -4.359   48 -6.022   48 -6.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  0.698   47 -7.195   48 -5.489
Culinary Institute       2  9  583  839 -5.533   49 -4.391   49 -6.115   47 -6.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   49  0.621   48 -7.270   43 -4.912
Webb Institute           0  4  173  294 -6.227   50 -4.574   50 -6.604   49 -6.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   50  0.000   50 -7.930   46 -5.363


PSUAC: strength=-2.560 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    22  5 2117 1776 -1.958    4 -0.960    4 -1.083    5 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.275   10 -1.557    3 -0.888
Penn St-York            20  9 2190 1962 -2.038    8 -1.516    8 -1.573    9 -1.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.370   16 -2.029    4 -1.154
Penn St-Mont Alto       20  9 2192 1983 -2.210   12 -1.668   12 -1.725   11 -1.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.836   18 -2.188    8 -1.488
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  9 1791 1675 -2.459   16 -2.063   16 -2.185   17 -2.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.565   19 -2.192   15 -2.312
Penn St-Beaver          14 10 1648 1539 -2.401   17 -2.095   18 -2.231   16 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.511   37 -3.178    5 -1.317
Penn St-Shenango        15 12 1874 1887 -2.389   18 -2.107   17 -2.217   20 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  8.459   34 -3.042   12 -1.714
Penn St-Brandywine      14 12 2014 1994 -2.374   19 -2.140   19 -2.261   21 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  8.435   17 -2.165   19 -2.591
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.320   23 -2.336   23 -2.429   23 -2.539    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.639   22 -2.391   20 -2.687
Penn St-Hazleton        10 13 1604 1574 -2.335   25 -2.453   25 -2.597   19 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  7.332   33 -3.003   11 -1.640
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.479   26 -2.613   26 -2.817   30 -3.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.658   35 -3.120   23 -2.911
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.552   32 -2.910   32 -3.162   31 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.725   36 -3.143   31 -3.160
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -3.064   35 -3.273   35 -3.708   43 -4.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.483   30 -2.815   44 -5.262
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.856   36 -3.361   36 -3.846   37 -3.703    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  3.929   15 -1.984   47 -5.422
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.851   44 -3.693   44 -4.538   40 -3.863    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  2.928   39 -3.888   37 -3.839

Yankee Small: strength=-2.954 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern Maine CC       22  4 2194 1648 -2.174    5 -1.119    5 -1.231    4 -1.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.936   12 -1.676    2 -0.728
New Hampshire Tech      23  6 2797 2252 -2.204    6 -1.356    6 -1.429    7 -1.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 11.029    3 -0.425   16 -2.534
Vermont Tech            24 10 2883 2553 -2.192    9 -1.561    9 -1.624   10 -1.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.139    7 -1.310   13 -2.127
Central Maine CC        15 10 2065 1916 -2.830   24 -2.432   24 -2.573   25 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  7.222   24 -2.520   21 -2.737
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.675   29 -2.825   29 -3.040   26 -2.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  6.178   21 -2.368   30 -3.113
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.317   31 -2.880   31 -3.120   35 -3.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.712   26 -2.681   42 -4.485
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.964   34 -3.222   34 -3.643   32 -3.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  4.733   28 -2.761   38 -3.856
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.895   37 -3.378   37 -3.876   34 -3.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  3.978   32 -2.955   40 -4.080
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.299   42 -3.603   42 -4.345   44 -4.063    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  3.141   41 -4.178   39 -3.948
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.685   47 -4.276   47 -5.768   50 -6.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.904   49 -7.657   50 -6.208

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           163 177 0.479    1 -2.560
Yankee Small    117 142 0.452    2 -2.954

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:42 2022

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