Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             34  1 3222 2076  0.162    1  1.805    1  1.471    1  1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.436    1  1.639    1  2.193
Calgary                 32  4 3117 2484 -0.096    2  1.233    2  0.985    3  0.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.434    3  0.774    3  0.883
Ryerson                 31  5 3123 2329  0.039    3  0.996    3  0.768    2  1.035    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.943    2  0.851    2  1.219
UBC                     29  8 3294 2772 -0.619    4  0.274    5  0.074    4  0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.051    5  0.570    8 -0.388
St Mary's NS            30  6 3036 2633 -0.895    5  0.262    4  0.076    8 -0.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.874    7 -0.002   10 -0.456
Alberta                 23 10 2724 2426 -0.468    6  0.098    6 -0.059    5 -0.075    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.573   12 -0.193    5  0.043
Dalhousie               29 10 2987 2673 -0.844    7 -0.104    7 -0.232    9 -0.309    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.616   23 -0.849    4  0.232
Ottawa ON               20 11 2510 2285 -0.525    8 -0.135    8 -0.270    6 -0.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.637   10 -0.092    7 -0.250
Western ON              23  9 2645 2403 -0.979    9 -0.299    9 -0.397   14 -0.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 14.854   16 -0.524   12 -0.683
Queen's ON              18 13 2363 2262 -0.652   10 -0.424   10 -0.539   10 -0.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.202   19 -0.607    6 -0.174
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurier                 21 12 2765 2581 -0.843   11 -0.425   11 -0.542   11 -0.508    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.178   11 -0.101   14 -0.916
Saskatchewan            18 15 2851 2790 -0.654   12 -0.467   12 -0.556   15 -0.705    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.085    8 -0.006   26 -1.404
Regina                  22 11 2817 2678 -1.097   13 -0.502   13 -0.593   23 -0.986    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 13.807   14 -0.468   31 -1.503
Brock                   19 14 2774 2653 -0.746   14 -0.535   14 -0.627   12 -0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 13.889    9 -0.023   20 -1.127
Concordia QC            18 14 2361 2394 -0.802   15 -0.552   15 -0.644   19 -0.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.712   30 -1.018   11 -0.675
Lethbridge U.           19 15 3116 2785 -0.588   16 -0.581   16 -0.673    7 -0.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 13.861    4  0.681   19 -1.067
McGill                  14 10 1744 1737 -0.916   17 -0.607   17 -0.700   17 -0.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.516   37 -1.245    9 -0.399
UQAM                    15 12 2091 2090 -0.912   18 -0.620   18 -0.714   21 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.456   21 -0.641   21 -1.141
Fraser Valley           16 10 2046 1983 -1.108   19 -0.631   19 -0.728   22 -0.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.326   28 -0.994   13 -0.803
UNB                     17 10 2197 2059 -1.028   20 -0.637   20 -0.734   16 -0.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.507   17 -0.541   15 -0.926
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurentian              14 14 2311 2340 -0.757   21 -0.647   21 -0.744   13 -0.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.425    6  0.141   23 -1.306
Manitoba                13 14 2057 2151 -0.857   22 -0.762   22 -0.870   25 -1.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.856   35 -1.161   16 -0.940
Victoria                15 15 2311 2357 -0.983   23 -0.847   23 -0.952   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.596   32 -1.094   17 -1.017
Bishop's                11 15 1957 2113 -0.836   24 -0.888   24 -1.000   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.441   24 -0.858   25 -1.401
Winnipeg                15 15 2588 2523 -1.012   25 -0.910   25 -1.026   20 -0.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.486   13 -0.222   32 -1.528
McMaster                16 18 2789 2835 -1.045   26 -0.981   26 -1.106   24 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.216   15 -0.509   30 -1.502
UNBC                    13 15 2241 2265 -1.075   27 -1.005   27 -1.122   27 -1.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.130   26 -0.880   24 -1.365
Guelph                  17 20 2952 3086 -1.099   28 -1.073   28 -1.177   32 -1.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.882   22 -0.818   36 -1.707
Lakehead                12 19 2444 2519 -0.909   29 -1.121   29 -1.229   18 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.801   20 -0.632   18 -1.054
Laval                   11 16 2045 2056 -1.029   30 -1.165   30 -1.267   30 -1.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.676   34 -1.158   22 -1.148
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
York ON                 11 21 2397 2685 -0.990   31 -1.244   31 -1.342   33 -1.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.289   31 -1.022   34 -1.560
Toronto                  9 19 2090 2318 -0.901   32 -1.256   32 -1.355   34 -1.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.314   33 -1.130   33 -1.530
Thompson Rivers          9 17 1991 2124 -1.013   33 -1.305   33 -1.383   31 -1.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.168   29 -1.006   29 -1.486
UCCB                    12 18 2371 2412 -1.108   34 -1.316   34 -1.394   29 -1.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.197   25 -0.862   28 -1.424
St Francis Xavier       11 22 2587 2909 -1.065   35 -1.360   35 -1.430   39 -1.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.814   27 -0.950   43 -2.332
Algoma                   8 19 2020 2295 -0.990   36 -1.390   36 -1.465   36 -1.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.731   39 -1.359   37 -1.801
Mount Royal             10 16 2075 2305 -1.382   37 -1.452   37 -1.494   41 -1.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.434   36 -1.166   42 -2.289
Windsor                  9 20 2064 2425 -1.218   38 -1.500   38 -1.554   43 -1.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.187   43 -2.006   38 -1.818
Acadia                   9 19 2127 2291 -1.213   39 -1.580   40 -1.644   35 -1.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.134   38 -1.253   35 -1.637
Memorial                10 21 2354 2592 -1.225   40 -1.600   39 -1.637   40 -1.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.056   40 -1.408   39 -1.938
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                  7 21 2344 2592 -1.145   41 -1.726   41 -1.810   37 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.662   18 -0.607   44 -2.571
UPEI                     7 25 2248 2711 -1.288   42 -1.845   42 -1.930   44 -2.144    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.153   46 -2.216   40 -2.071
Nipissing                6 22 1992 2260 -1.173   43 -1.898   43 -1.995   38 -1.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.215   42 -1.789   27 -1.407
Waterloo                 4 27 2275 2689 -1.121   44 -2.046   44 -2.162   42 -1.907    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  8.673   41 -1.635   41 -2.180
UBC-Okanagan            12 19 2246 2628 -2.169   45 -2.061   45 -2.182   46 -2.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.327   47 -2.774   45 -2.599
MacEwan                  3 25 2018 2522 -1.479   46 -2.429   46 -2.565   45 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  7.213   45 -2.153   46 -2.612
Trinity Western          1 26 1963 2629 -1.654   47 -2.829   47 -3.043   47 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  6.027   44 -2.061   47 -3.388


Atl U Sport: strength=-1.204 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            30  6 3036 2633 -0.895    5  0.262    4  0.076    8 -0.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.874    7 -0.002   10 -0.456
Dalhousie               29 10 2987 2673 -0.844    7 -0.104    7 -0.232    9 -0.309    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.616   23 -0.849    4  0.232
UNB                     17 10 2197 2059 -1.028   20 -0.637   20 -0.734   16 -0.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 13.507   17 -0.541   15 -0.926
UCCB                    12 18 2371 2412 -1.108   34 -1.316   34 -1.394   29 -1.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.197   25 -0.862   28 -1.424
St Francis Xavier       11 22 2587 2909 -1.065   35 -1.360   35 -1.430   39 -1.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.814   27 -0.950   43 -2.332
Acadia                   9 19 2127 2291 -1.213   39 -1.580   40 -1.644   35 -1.445    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.134   38 -1.253   35 -1.637
Memorial                10 21 2354 2592 -1.225   40 -1.600   39 -1.637   40 -1.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.056   40 -1.408   39 -1.938
UPEI                     7 25 2248 2711 -1.288   42 -1.845   42 -1.930   44 -2.144    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.153   46 -2.216   40 -2.071

Can W: strength=-1.076 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Calgary                 32  4 3117 2484 -0.096    2  1.233    2  0.985    3  0.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.434    3  0.774    3  0.883
UBC                     29  8 3294 2772 -0.619    4  0.274    5  0.074    4  0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.051    5  0.570    8 -0.388
Alberta                 23 10 2724 2426 -0.468    6  0.098    6 -0.059    5 -0.075    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.573   12 -0.193    5  0.043
Saskatchewan            18 15 2851 2790 -0.654   12 -0.467   12 -0.556   15 -0.705    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.085    8 -0.006   26 -1.404
Regina                  22 11 2817 2678 -1.097   13 -0.502   13 -0.593   23 -0.986    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 13.807   14 -0.468   31 -1.503
Lethbridge U.           19 15 3116 2785 -0.588   16 -0.581   16 -0.673    7 -0.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 13.861    4  0.681   19 -1.067
Fraser Valley           16 10 2046 1983 -1.108   19 -0.631   19 -0.728   22 -0.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.326   28 -0.994   13 -0.803
Manitoba                13 14 2057 2151 -0.857   22 -0.762   22 -0.870   25 -1.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.856   35 -1.161   16 -0.940
Victoria                15 15 2311 2357 -0.983   23 -0.847   23 -0.952   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.596   32 -1.094   17 -1.017
Winnipeg                15 15 2588 2523 -1.012   25 -0.910   25 -1.026   20 -0.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.486   13 -0.222   32 -1.528
UNBC                    13 15 2241 2265 -1.075   27 -1.005   27 -1.122   27 -1.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.130   26 -0.880   24 -1.365
Thompson Rivers          9 17 1991 2124 -1.013   33 -1.305   33 -1.383   31 -1.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.168   29 -1.006   29 -1.486
Mount Royal             10 16 2075 2305 -1.382   37 -1.452   37 -1.494   41 -1.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.434   36 -1.166   42 -2.289
Brandon                  7 21 2344 2592 -1.145   41 -1.726   41 -1.810   37 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.662   18 -0.607   44 -2.571
UBC-Okanagan            12 19 2246 2628 -2.169   45 -2.061   45 -2.182   46 -2.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.327   47 -2.774   45 -2.599
MacEwan                  3 25 2018 2522 -1.479   46 -2.429   46 -2.565   45 -2.383    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  7.213   45 -2.153   46 -2.612
Trinity Western          1 26 1963 2629 -1.654   47 -2.829   47 -3.043   47 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  6.027   44 -2.061   47 -3.388

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.866 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             34  1 3222 2076  0.162    1  1.805    1  1.471    1  1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.436    1  1.639    1  2.193
Ryerson                 31  5 3123 2329  0.039    3  0.996    3  0.768    2  1.035    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.943    2  0.851    2  1.219
Ottawa ON               20 11 2510 2285 -0.525    8 -0.135    8 -0.270    6 -0.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.637   10 -0.092    7 -0.250
Western ON              23  9 2645 2403 -0.979    9 -0.299    9 -0.397   14 -0.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 14.854   16 -0.524   12 -0.683
Queen's ON              18 13 2363 2262 -0.652   10 -0.424   10 -0.539   10 -0.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.202   19 -0.607    6 -0.174
Laurier                 21 12 2765 2581 -0.843   11 -0.425   11 -0.542   11 -0.508    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.178   11 -0.101   14 -0.916
Brock                   19 14 2774 2653 -0.746   14 -0.535   14 -0.627   12 -0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 13.889    9 -0.023   20 -1.127
Laurentian              14 14 2311 2340 -0.757   21 -0.647   21 -0.744   13 -0.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.425    6  0.141   23 -1.306
McMaster                16 18 2789 2835 -1.045   26 -0.981   26 -1.106   24 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.216   15 -0.509   30 -1.502
Guelph                  17 20 2952 3086 -1.099   28 -1.073   28 -1.177   32 -1.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.882   22 -0.818   36 -1.707
Lakehead                12 19 2444 2519 -0.909   29 -1.121   29 -1.229   18 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.801   20 -0.632   18 -1.054
York ON                 11 21 2397 2685 -0.990   31 -1.244   31 -1.342   33 -1.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.289   31 -1.022   34 -1.560
Toronto                  9 19 2090 2318 -0.901   32 -1.256   32 -1.355   34 -1.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.314   33 -1.130   33 -1.530
Algoma                   8 19 2020 2295 -0.990   36 -1.390   36 -1.465   36 -1.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.731   39 -1.359   37 -1.801
Windsor                  9 20 2064 2425 -1.218   38 -1.500   38 -1.554   43 -1.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.187   43 -2.006   38 -1.818
Nipissing                6 22 1992 2260 -1.173   43 -1.898   43 -1.995   38 -1.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.215   42 -1.789   27 -1.407
Waterloo                 4 27 2275 2689 -1.121   44 -2.046   44 -2.162   42 -1.907    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  8.673   41 -1.635   41 -2.180

RSEQ: strength=-0.951 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia QC            18 14 2361 2394 -0.802   15 -0.552   15 -0.644   19 -0.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 13.712   30 -1.018   11 -0.675
McGill                  14 10 1744 1737 -0.916   17 -0.607   17 -0.700   17 -0.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 13.516   37 -1.245    9 -0.399
UQAM                    15 12 2091 2090 -0.912   18 -0.620   18 -0.714   21 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.456   21 -0.641   21 -1.141
Bishop's                11 15 1957 2113 -0.836   24 -0.888   24 -1.000   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.441   24 -0.858   25 -1.401
Laval                   11 16 2045 2056 -1.029   30 -1.165   30 -1.267   30 -1.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.676   34 -1.158   22 -1.148

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   272 264 0.507    1 -0.866
RSEQ             69  67 0.507    2 -0.951
Can W           257 256 0.501    3 -1.076
Atl U Sport     125 131 0.488    4 -1.204

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:42 2022

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.