Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Westcliff                3 26  0 1863 2420 -0.615    1 -2.007    1 -2.010    2 -2.045    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.233    8 -2.230    2 -1.860
Miami-Hamilton          10  9  0 1689 1707 -2.278    2 -2.202    2 -2.253    4 -2.295    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.567    1 -1.243    7 -3.348
Red River               16  1  0 1556 1171 -3.867    3 -2.274    3 -2.345    6 -2.749    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  8.322   12 -2.718    4 -2.779
Sisseton Wahpeton        8  1  0  914  748 -4.058    4 -2.637    4 -2.825   11 -3.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.774    6 -2.161   14 -4.139
Florida Gateway          3  2  0  366  317 -2.780    5 -2.642    5 -2.828    3 -2.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.257    9 -2.408    1 -1.814
Akron-Wayne              1 10  0  722  984 -1.477    6 -2.773    6 -2.981    7 -2.845    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.440   11 -2.707    5 -2.983
Miami-Middletown         2  9  0  795 1134 -2.339    7 -2.930    7 -3.152   13 -3.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.807   14 -2.872   13 -4.019
U of the Bahamas         0  1  0  102  110 -0.158    8 -3.261    8 -3.617    5 -2.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.400    3 -1.696    6 -3.239
Prairie College          3  4  0  619  577 -3.125    9 -3.272   10 -3.646   10 -3.079    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.055   10 -2.577    8 -3.581
Ohio U-Lancaster         1  6  0  556  704 -2.152   10 -3.274    9 -3.644    9 -3.067    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.995    4 -1.889   16 -4.246
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Clark St CC              1  2  0  276  231 -2.039   11 -3.276   11 -3.656    1 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.345    2 -1.671    3 -2.043
North American U.        0  1  0   70  124 -1.000   12 -3.328   12 -3.735   16 -3.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.572   16 -3.373   17 -4.265
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2 12  0  854 1414 -3.010   13 -3.354   13 -3.788   18 -4.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.433   23 -4.120   12 -3.979
Cal Miramar              0  6  0  413  572 -1.211   14 -3.378   14 -3.860    8 -2.940    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.674    5 -2.121   11 -3.758
Turtle Mountain          3  3  0  514  544 -3.948   15 -3.381   15 -3.882   20 -4.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.369   18 -3.727   19 -4.798
Salish Kootenai          0  4  0  250  527  1.017   16 -3.425   17 -3.972   23 -4.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.928   17 -3.618   26 -5.843
Ohio U-Eastern           0  3  0  243  389 -1.771   17 -3.427   16 -3.967   14 -3.608    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.366    7 -2.199   21 -5.018
Burman                   1  4  0  418  510 -3.348   18 -3.455   18 -4.061   19 -4.083    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.052   15 -3.204   20 -4.963
Cheyney                  0 16  0  929 1603 -1.589   19 -3.499   20 -4.150   15 -3.753    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.087   19 -3.874    9 -3.631
Oglala Lakota            0  3  0  217  280 -2.158   20 -3.499   19 -4.145   12 -3.436    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.091   13 -2.727   15 -4.145
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Virginia U-Lynchburg     0  6  0  378  523 -2.064   21 -3.550   21 -4.260   17 -3.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.867   20 -3.904   10 -3.743
Northwest Indian         0 20  0 1230 2306 -1.742   22 -3.665   22 -4.428   22 -4.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.196   22 -4.078   22 -5.303
Leech Lake               4  5  0  732  741 -4.374   23 -3.693   23 -4.494   21 -4.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  3.271   21 -3.956   18 -4.679
Ohio St-Mansfield        0  5  0  233  544 -0.701   24 -3.792   24 -4.760   27 -5.990    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.748   27 -6.513   24 -5.467
Canadian Mennonite       2 14  0 1183 1532 -4.267   25 -3.963   25 -5.240   24 -5.323    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.367   24 -4.829   25 -5.817
Union NE                 0 11  0  697 1072 -3.397   26 -4.005   26 -5.343   26 -5.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.180   25 -5.738   27 -5.934
Cooper Union             1  2  0  193  199 -6.373   27 -4.258   27 -6.100   25 -5.670    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  1.334   26 -5.941   23 -5.399


Indep: strength=-3.672 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Westcliff                3 26  0 1863 2420 -0.615    1 -2.007    1 -2.010    2 -2.045    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.233    8 -2.230    2 -1.860
Florida Gateway          3  2  0  366  317 -2.780    5 -2.642    5 -2.828    3 -2.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.257    9 -2.408    1 -1.814
U of the Bahamas         0  1  0  102  110 -0.158    8 -3.261    8 -3.617    5 -2.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.400    3 -1.696    6 -3.239
Prairie College          3  4  0  619  577 -3.125    9 -3.272   10 -3.646   10 -3.079    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.055   10 -2.577    8 -3.581
Clark St CC              1  2  0  276  231 -2.039   11 -3.276   11 -3.656    1 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.345    2 -1.671    3 -2.043
North American U.        0  1  0   70  124 -1.000   12 -3.328   12 -3.735   16 -3.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.572   16 -3.373   17 -4.265
Salish Kootenai          0  4  0  250  527  1.017   16 -3.425   17 -3.972   23 -4.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.928   17 -3.618   26 -5.843
Burman                   1  4  0  418  510 -3.348   18 -3.455   18 -4.061   19 -4.083    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.052   15 -3.204   20 -4.963
Cheyney                  0 16  0  929 1603 -1.589   19 -3.499   20 -4.150   15 -3.753    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.087   19 -3.874    9 -3.631
Oglala Lakota            0  3  0  217  280 -2.158   20 -3.499   19 -4.145   12 -3.436    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.091   13 -2.727   15 -4.145
Virginia U-Lynchburg     0  6  0  378  523 -2.064   21 -3.550   21 -4.260   17 -3.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.867   20 -3.904   10 -3.743
Northwest Indian         0 20  0 1230 2306 -1.742   22 -3.665   22 -4.428   22 -4.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.196   22 -4.078   22 -5.303
Union NE                 0 11  0  697 1072 -3.397   26 -4.005   26 -5.343   26 -5.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.180   25 -5.738   27 -5.934
Cooper Union             1  2  0  193  199 -6.373   27 -4.258   27 -6.100   25 -5.670    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  1.334   26 -5.941   23 -5.399

MBCAC-NIAC: strength=-4.339 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Red River               16  1  0 1556 1171 -3.867    3 -2.274    3 -2.345    6 -2.749    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  8.322   12 -2.718    4 -2.779
Sisseton Wahpeton        8  1  0  914  748 -4.058    4 -2.637    4 -2.825   11 -3.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.774    6 -2.161   14 -4.139
Turtle Mountain          3  3  0  514  544 -3.948   15 -3.381   15 -3.882   20 -4.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.369   18 -3.727   19 -4.798
Trinity Bible            7 17  0 2001 2264 -3.797      -3.545      -4.250      -4.241      0.0000      0.0000       3.756      -3.278      -5.203
Providence MB            8 19  0 2195 2497 -3.774      -3.618      -4.393      -4.121      0.0000      0.0000       3.582      -3.389      -4.854
FLBS                     4  9  0  981 1057 -4.055      -3.644      -4.369      -4.378      0.0000      0.0000       3.468      -4.515      -4.242
Leech Lake               4  5  0  732  741 -4.374   23 -3.693   23 -4.494   21 -4.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  3.271   21 -3.956   18 -4.679
Canadian Mennonite       2 14  0 1183 1532 -4.267   25 -3.963   25 -5.240   24 -5.323    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.367   24 -4.829   25 -5.817
Oak Hills Christian      0 19  0 1024 2123 -3.975      -4.161      -5.775      -7.008      0.0000      0.0000       1.418      -6.893      -7.124

ORCC: strength=-3.536 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          10  9  0 1689 1707 -2.278    2 -2.202    2 -2.253    4 -2.295    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.567    1 -1.243    7 -3.348
Akron-Wayne              1 10  0  722  984 -1.477    6 -2.773    6 -2.981    7 -2.845    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.440   11 -2.707    5 -2.983
Miami-Middletown         2  9  0  795 1134 -2.339    7 -2.930    7 -3.152   13 -3.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.807   14 -2.872   13 -4.019
Ohio U-Lancaster         1  6  0  556  704 -2.152   10 -3.274    9 -3.644    9 -3.067    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.995    4 -1.889   16 -4.246
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2 12  0  854 1414 -3.010   13 -3.354   13 -3.788   18 -4.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.433   23 -4.120   12 -3.979
Ohio U-Eastern           0  3  0  243  389 -1.771   17 -3.427   16 -3.967   14 -3.608    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.366    7 -2.199   21 -5.018
Ohio St-Mansfield        0  5  0  233  544 -0.701   24 -3.792   24 -4.760   27 -5.990    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.748   27 -6.513   24 -5.467

PCAC: strength=-2.957 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bethesda                 6 21  0 1892 2332 -0.984      -2.018      -2.026      -1.900      0.0000      0.0000       9.223      -1.660      -2.141
New Hope Christian       7 14  0 1643 1979 -2.261      -2.337      -2.416      -2.829      0.0000      0.0000       7.926      -1.929      -3.728
West Coast Baptist       2 19  0 1429 1995 -1.956      -2.683      -2.882      -3.017      0.0000      0.0000       6.698      -2.369      -3.665
Cal Miramar              0  6  0  413  572 -1.211   14 -3.378   14 -3.860    8 -2.940    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.674    5 -2.121   11 -3.758
SAGU Amer Ind            0 17  0 1176 1854 -1.626      -3.438      -3.994      -3.794      0.0000      0.0000       4.209      -2.814      -4.774
Portland Bible           0 20  0 1189 1791 -1.706      -3.502      -4.146      -3.132      0.0000      0.0000       4.251      -3.788      -2.476

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
PCAC             15  97   0 0.134    1 -2.957
ORCC             16  54   0 0.229    2 -3.536
Indep            12 102   0 0.105    3 -3.672
MBCAC-NIAC       52  88   0 0.371    4 -4.339

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.248 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:42:58 2022

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