Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson & Wales NC      18  8  0 2283 2076 -1.279    1 -0.726    1 -0.811    2 -0.997    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.615    1  0.024   12 -2.018
Cincinnati-Clermont     22  5  0 2446 2226 -2.053    2 -0.794    2 -0.886   12 -1.723    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.998    5 -0.880   19 -2.566
Central Penn            14  6  0 1627 1398 -1.270    3 -0.832    3 -0.929    1 -0.576    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.381    3 -0.648    1 -0.504
New Hampshire Tech      24  3  0 2423 1959 -2.309    4 -0.950    4 -1.032    6 -1.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.553    6 -1.026   10 -1.928
Penn St-Mont Alto       24  5  0 2171 1832 -2.175    5 -1.086    5 -1.176    7 -1.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 12.060   13 -1.940    4 -1.110
Vermont Tech            24  9  0 3062 2641 -1.953    6 -1.337    6 -1.394    3 -1.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 11.446    2 -0.284   17 -2.409
Penn St-York            18  6  0 1760 1529 -2.010    7 -1.338    7 -1.396    4 -1.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 11.442   11 -1.931    2 -0.766
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   20 10  0 2188 2049 -2.038    8 -1.536    8 -1.611    9 -1.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.498   15 -2.055    6 -1.321
East-West                7 22  0 2299 2676 -0.911    9 -1.637    9 -1.677   10 -1.705    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.275    4 -0.791   21 -2.619
Andrews                 13 11  0 1769 1635 -1.787   10 -1.675   10 -1.724    5 -1.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 10.128   17 -2.078    3 -0.876
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern Maine CC       17  6  0 1735 1476 -2.508   11 -1.781   11 -1.831   13 -2.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.644   23 -2.756    5 -1.244
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    18  9  0 2048 1843 -2.232   12 -1.862   12 -1.872   11 -1.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.650   12 -1.940    8 -1.499
Kent St-Tuscarawas      15 11  0 2167 2002 -1.958   13 -1.866   13 -1.876    8 -1.645    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.629    7 -1.191   14 -2.100
Berkeley-NY             14 11  0 2048 1921 -2.216   14 -2.043   14 -2.061   14 -2.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  9.121   10 -1.778   16 -2.346
Central Maine CC        15  8  0 1817 1677 -2.648   15 -2.134   15 -2.157   23 -2.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.762   22 -2.687   23 -2.685
Penn St-Beaver          13 13  0 1666 1738 -2.314   16 -2.208   16 -2.262   20 -2.545    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.510   31 -3.466    9 -1.624
Penn St-Schuylkill      11 14  0 1775 1891 -2.221   17 -2.277   17 -2.344   22 -2.601    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.346   21 -2.661   18 -2.541
Penn St-DuBois          10 12  0 1582 1656 -2.287   18 -2.309   18 -2.381   18 -2.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  8.229   18 -2.418   20 -2.588
Penn St-Shenango        11 17  0 1968 2008 -2.145   19 -2.412   19 -2.513   15 -2.307    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  8.070   19 -2.579   13 -2.035
Villa Maria              7 14  0 1660 1722 -2.012   20 -2.448   20 -2.565   16 -2.380    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.849   16 -2.067   24 -2.693
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Fayette          9 15  0 1556 1668 -2.292   21 -2.473   21 -2.598   26 -2.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.613   32 -3.510   11 -2.016
Camp U-Somerset          6 17  0 1920 2129 -2.011   22 -2.575   22 -2.727   17 -2.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  7.387    8 -1.605   29 -3.361
Penn St-Hazleton         9 14  0 1589 1645 -2.418   23 -2.615   23 -2.785   21 -2.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.244   26 -2.998   15 -2.115
Williamson Trade         5  7  0  779  751 -2.551   24 -2.749   24 -2.939   19 -2.521    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.770   35 -3.580    7 -1.461
Penn St-Brandywine       8 17  0 2057 2149 -2.497   25 -2.793   25 -3.014   25 -2.753    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.500    9 -1.663   33 -3.843
Paul Smith's            11 13  0 1748 1785 -3.106   26 -2.834   26 -3.072   32 -3.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.184   37 -3.787   27 -3.296
Wright St-Lake           5 23  0 2169 2863 -2.582   27 -2.949   27 -3.180   35 -3.810    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.662   20 -2.617   39 -5.002
Pratt Institute          9  9  0 1390 1446 -3.423   28 -3.014   28 -3.265   31 -3.538    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  5.609   29 -3.231   34 -3.844
Penn St-Worth Scranton   7 16  0 1880 2110 -2.816   29 -3.034   29 -3.291   29 -3.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  5.531   14 -1.972   36 -4.712
Penn St-New Kensington   4 19  0 1581 1801 -2.325   30 -3.075   30 -3.346   27 -2.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  5.600   25 -2.962   25 -2.910
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Maine-Machias            8 19  0 2027 2050 -2.638   31 -3.117   31 -3.404   24 -2.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.491   24 -2.803   22 -2.650
SUNY-ESF                 8  7  0 1167 1114 -3.487   32 -3.123   32 -3.415   30 -3.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.361   30 -3.464   31 -3.504
Albany Pharmacy         10 12  0 1572 1638 -3.454   33 -3.141   33 -3.440   34 -3.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  5.240   38 -4.198   28 -3.353
Great Bay CC             9 12  0 1721 1559 -3.160   34 -3.167   34 -3.480   28 -3.169    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  5.322   28 -3.117   26 -3.220
Maine-Augusta            5 20  0 1988 2340 -3.169   35 -3.472   35 -4.101   36 -4.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.087   27 -3.082   40 -5.140
Five Towns               7 10  0 1350 1390 -4.062   36 -3.497   36 -4.147   37 -4.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  3.983   33 -3.516   37 -4.789
Warren Wilson            1 19  0 1332 1778 -2.183   37 -3.594   37 -4.338   33 -3.545    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  3.905   36 -3.687   30 -3.402
Crown TN                 3 11  0 1154 1368 -3.882   38 -3.752   38 -4.633   40 -4.729    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  3.108   34 -3.546   44 -5.913
Christendom              1 17  0  971 1594 -3.300   39 -3.829   39 -4.887   39 -4.577    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  2.857   41 -5.221   35 -3.934
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    0 22  0 1359 1858 -2.690   40 -3.915   40 -5.113   38 -4.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  2.699   39 -4.653   32 -3.806
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern St OH           1 18  0 1258 1874 -3.695   41 -3.969   41 -5.251   41 -5.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  2.400   40 -5.212   42 -5.486
King's NY                4 10  0  891 1159 -5.402   42 -4.071   42 -5.541   44 -6.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  1.928   43 -6.404   45 -5.983
Vaughn                   4  7  0  766  849 -5.408   43 -4.143   43 -5.744   42 -5.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.986   42 -5.367   43 -5.516
Unity                    1 20  0 1182 2263 -5.285   44 -4.244   44 -6.040   46 -6.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  1.106   45 -6.662   46 -6.857
Culinary Institute       2  8  0  533  693 -5.629   45 -4.298   45 -6.144   45 -6.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.197   47 -7.692   38 -4.877
Davis College            0  7  0  394  598 -4.533   46 -4.316   46 -6.190   43 -5.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  1.178   44 -6.471   41 -5.384
Hampshire                0  5  0  276  482 -6.345   47 -4.569   47 -7.241   47 -7.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.433   46 -7.410   47 -7.055
Webb Institute           0  5  0  145  387 -4.460   48 -4.661   48 -7.576   48 -9.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  0.000   48 -11.675   48 -7.525


HVIAC: strength=-5.072 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Berkeley-NY             14 11  0 2048 1921 -2.216   14 -2.043   14 -2.061   14 -2.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  9.121   10 -1.778   16 -2.346
SUNY-ESF                 8  7  0 1167 1114 -3.487   32 -3.123   32 -3.415   30 -3.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.361   30 -3.464   31 -3.504
Albany Pharmacy         10 12  0 1572 1638 -3.454   33 -3.141   33 -3.440   34 -3.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  5.240   38 -4.198   28 -3.353
King's NY                4 10  0  891 1159 -5.402   42 -4.071   42 -5.541   44 -6.193    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  1.928   43 -6.404   45 -5.983
Vaughn                   4  7  0  766  849 -5.408   43 -4.143   43 -5.744   42 -5.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.986   42 -5.367   43 -5.516
Culinary Institute       2  8  0  533  693 -5.629   45 -4.298   45 -6.144   45 -6.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.197   47 -7.692   38 -4.877
Davis College            0  7  0  394  598 -4.533   46 -4.316   46 -6.190   43 -5.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  1.178   44 -6.471   41 -5.384

PSUAC: strength=-2.442 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Mont Alto       24  5  0 2171 1832 -2.175    5 -1.086    5 -1.176    7 -1.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 12.060   13 -1.940    4 -1.110
Penn St-York            18  6  0 1760 1529 -2.010    7 -1.338    7 -1.396    4 -1.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 11.442   11 -1.931    2 -0.766
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   20 10  0 2188 2049 -2.038    8 -1.536    8 -1.611    9 -1.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.498   15 -2.055    6 -1.321
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    18  9  0 2048 1843 -2.232   12 -1.862   12 -1.872   11 -1.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.650   12 -1.940    8 -1.499
Penn St-Beaver          13 13  0 1666 1738 -2.314   16 -2.208   16 -2.262   20 -2.545    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.510   31 -3.466    9 -1.624
Penn St-Schuylkill      11 14  0 1775 1891 -2.221   17 -2.277   17 -2.344   22 -2.601    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.346   21 -2.661   18 -2.541
Penn St-DuBois          10 12  0 1582 1656 -2.287   18 -2.309   18 -2.381   18 -2.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  8.229   18 -2.418   20 -2.588
Penn St-Shenango        11 17  0 1968 2008 -2.145   19 -2.412   19 -2.513   15 -2.307    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  8.070   19 -2.579   13 -2.035
Penn St-Fayette          9 15  0 1556 1668 -2.292   21 -2.473   21 -2.598   26 -2.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  7.613   32 -3.510   11 -2.016
Penn St-Hazleton         9 14  0 1589 1645 -2.418   23 -2.615   23 -2.785   21 -2.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  7.244   26 -2.998   15 -2.115
Penn St-Brandywine       8 17  0 2057 2149 -2.497   25 -2.793   25 -3.014   25 -2.753    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.500    9 -1.663   33 -3.843
Penn St-Worth Scranton   7 16  0 1880 2110 -2.816   29 -3.034   29 -3.291   29 -3.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  5.531   14 -1.972   36 -4.712
Penn St-New Kensington   4 19  0 1581 1801 -2.325   30 -3.075   30 -3.346   27 -2.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  5.600   25 -2.962   25 -2.910
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    0 22  0 1359 1858 -2.690   40 -3.915   40 -5.113   38 -4.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  2.699   39 -4.653   32 -3.806

Yankee Small: strength=-3.028 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      24  3  0 2423 1959 -2.309    4 -0.950    4 -1.032    6 -1.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.553    6 -1.026   10 -1.928
Vermont Tech            24  9  0 3062 2641 -1.953    6 -1.337    6 -1.394    3 -1.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 11.446    2 -0.284   17 -2.409
Southern Maine CC       17  6  0 1735 1476 -2.508   11 -1.781   11 -1.831   13 -2.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.644   23 -2.756    5 -1.244
Central Maine CC        15  8  0 1817 1677 -2.648   15 -2.134   15 -2.157   23 -2.686    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.762   22 -2.687   23 -2.685
Paul Smith's            11 13  0 1748 1785 -3.106   26 -2.834   26 -3.072   32 -3.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.184   37 -3.787   27 -3.296
Maine-Machias            8 19  0 2027 2050 -2.638   31 -3.117   31 -3.404   24 -2.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.491   24 -2.803   22 -2.650
Great Bay CC             9 12  0 1721 1559 -3.160   34 -3.167   34 -3.480   28 -3.169    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  5.322   28 -3.117   26 -3.220
Maine-Augusta            5 20  0 1988 2340 -3.169   35 -3.472   35 -4.101   36 -4.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.087   27 -3.082   40 -5.140
Unity                    1 20  0 1182 2263 -5.285   44 -4.244   44 -6.040   46 -6.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  1.106   45 -6.662   46 -6.857
Hampshire                0  5  0  276  482 -6.345   47 -4.569   47 -7.241   47 -7.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.433   46 -7.410   47 -7.055

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           162 189   0 0.462    1 -2.442
Yankee Small    114 115   0 0.498    2 -3.028
HVIAC            42  62   0 0.404    3 -5.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.248 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:42:58 2022

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