Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Christian         13 12  0 1994 2034 -0.726    1 -0.604    1 -0.694    1 -0.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.929    1 -0.534    1 -1.267
Johnson TN              14 13  0 2136 2175 -1.275    2 -1.239    2 -1.325    4 -1.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.678    5 -1.238    6 -1.746
Great Lakes Christian   17 15  0 2703 2656 -1.486    3 -1.395    3 -1.458    3 -1.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.141    3 -0.952    7 -2.019
Johnson FL               8 11  0 1340 1528 -1.357    4 -1.432    4 -1.504    5 -1.574    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.778    7 -1.667    3 -1.482
Bob Jones U.            13 13  0 2092 2002 -1.362    5 -1.529    5 -1.605    2 -1.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.853    2 -0.902    4 -1.560
Champion Christian      18 16  0 2868 2932 -1.885    6 -1.779    6 -1.829    8 -1.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.662    4 -1.109   13 -2.692
Randall                  9 17  0 2016 2112 -1.231    7 -2.032    7 -2.046    6 -1.636    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  9.311    6 -1.580    5 -1.691
Camp U-Harrodsburg       8 20  0 2131 2472 -1.526    8 -2.124    8 -2.144    9 -2.271    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.855    8 -1.887   11 -2.654
Simmons KY               6 15  0 1494 1605 -1.503    9 -2.341    9 -2.422    7 -1.825    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.423   12 -2.271    2 -1.380
Welch                   11 12  0 1855 1945 -2.563   10 -2.364   10 -2.449   16 -2.831    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.936   17 -2.521   17 -3.141
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian     17 16  0 2648 2848 -2.636   11 -2.383   11 -2.472   12 -2.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.781    9 -2.029   15 -3.120
Arlington Baptist       10 23  0 2424 2900 -1.909   12 -2.398   12 -2.494   10 -2.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.995   14 -2.304   12 -2.686
Pensacola Christian      8 21  0 2094 2526 -2.043   13 -2.460   13 -2.582   17 -2.862    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  7.582   16 -2.482   18 -3.243
Kansas Christian        16 16  0 2617 2601 -2.597   14 -2.518   14 -2.653   11 -2.526    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  7.522   10 -2.225   14 -2.828
Barclay                 14 16  0 2458 2509 -2.617   15 -2.576   15 -2.730   14 -2.779    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  7.331   13 -2.285   19 -3.274
Toccoa Falls             8 24  0 2243 2650 -2.017   16 -2.618   16 -2.787   13 -2.651    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  7.205   19 -2.748   10 -2.554
Trinity Baptist          5 18  0 1343 1793 -2.089   17 -2.674   17 -2.867   19 -2.988    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.744   29 -3.888    8 -2.089
Southeastern Baptist     2 24  0 1831 2565 -1.414   18 -2.696   18 -2.897   18 -2.979    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  6.743   11 -2.263   24 -3.695
Ozark Christian         11 18  0 2289 2501 -2.564   19 -2.734   19 -2.920   15 -2.789    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  6.735   15 -2.441   16 -3.137
Calvary                 10 13  0 1781 1921 -3.094   20 -2.929   20 -3.151   24 -3.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.874   25 -3.316   22 -3.517
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     9 20  0 2279 2468 -2.649   21 -3.016   21 -3.268   20 -3.058    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.944   18 -2.622   20 -3.494
Faith Baptist Bible     14 14  0 2229 2260 -3.419   22 -3.053   22 -3.318   25 -3.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.408   27 -3.445   23 -3.643
Dallas Christian         5 26  0 2224 3009 -2.681   23 -3.175   23 -3.493   26 -3.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.068   21 -3.036   26 -4.186
Trinity FL               2 13  0 1065 1246 -2.586   24 -3.329   24 -3.728   22 -3.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.780   23 -3.262   21 -3.496
Boyce                    2 17  0 1375 1782 -2.390   25 -3.385   25 -3.884   23 -3.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.504   22 -3.052   25 -3.720
SAGU Amer Ind            0 17  0 1176 1854 -1.626   26 -3.438   26 -3.994   27 -3.794    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  4.209   20 -2.814   29 -4.774
Portland Bible           0 20  0 1189 1791 -1.706   27 -3.502   27 -4.146   21 -3.132    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.251   28 -3.788    9 -2.476
Trinity Bible            7 17  0 2001 2264 -3.797   28 -3.545   28 -4.250   29 -4.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.756   24 -3.278   31 -5.203
Providence MB            8 19  0 2195 2497 -3.774   29 -3.618   29 -4.393   28 -4.121    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.582   26 -3.389   30 -4.854
Appalachian Bible        2  9  0  734  993 -3.857   30 -3.702   30 -4.510   30 -4.489    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.164   30 -4.473   28 -4.505
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Moody Bible              1 18  0 1136 1755 -3.201   31 -3.741   31 -4.604   31 -4.764    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.107   32 -5.081   27 -4.446
SW Adventist             0 20  0 1207 2018 -2.976   32 -3.893   32 -5.056   32 -5.323    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.554   33 -5.331   32 -5.314
Emmaus Bible             0 16  0 1066 1768 -3.918   33 -4.116   33 -5.645   33 -6.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.695   31 -5.064   33 -7.039
Oak Hills Christian      0 19  0 1024 2123 -3.975   34 -4.161   34 -5.775   34 -7.008    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.418   34 -6.893   34 -7.124


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.254 (#5)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian     17 16  0 2648 2848 -2.636   11 -2.383   11 -2.472   12 -2.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.781    9 -2.029   15 -3.120
Barclay                 14 16  0 2458 2509 -2.617   15 -2.576   15 -2.730   14 -2.779    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  7.331   13 -2.285   19 -3.274
Ozark Christian         11 18  0 2289 2501 -2.564   19 -2.734   19 -2.920   15 -2.789    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  6.735   15 -2.441   16 -3.137
Calvary                 10 13  0 1781 1921 -3.094   20 -2.929   20 -3.151   24 -3.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.874   25 -3.316   22 -3.517
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     9 20  0 2279 2468 -2.649   21 -3.016   21 -3.268   20 -3.058    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.944   18 -2.622   20 -3.494
Faith Baptist Bible     14 14  0 2229 2260 -3.419   22 -3.053   22 -3.318   25 -3.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.408   27 -3.445   23 -3.643
Emmaus Bible             0 16  0 1066 1768 -3.918   33 -4.116   33 -5.645   33 -6.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.695   31 -5.064   33 -7.039

NCCAA-II Mid-E: strength=-2.145 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Grace Christian         13 12  0 1994 2034 -0.726    1 -0.604    1 -0.694    1 -0.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.929    1 -0.534    1 -1.267
Johnson TN              14 13  0 2136 2175 -1.275    2 -1.239    2 -1.325    4 -1.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.678    5 -1.238    6 -1.746
Great Lakes Christian   17 15  0 2703 2656 -1.486    3 -1.395    3 -1.458    3 -1.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.141    3 -0.952    7 -2.019
Camp U-Harrodsburg       8 20  0 2131 2472 -1.526    8 -2.124    8 -2.144    9 -2.271    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.855    8 -1.887   11 -2.654
Simmons KY               6 15  0 1494 1605 -1.503    9 -2.341    9 -2.422    7 -1.825    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.423   12 -2.271    2 -1.380
Welch                   11 12  0 1855 1945 -2.563   10 -2.364   10 -2.449   16 -2.831    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.936   17 -2.521   17 -3.141
Boyce                    2 17  0 1375 1782 -2.390   25 -3.385   25 -3.884   23 -3.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.504   22 -3.052   25 -3.720
Appalachian Bible        2  9  0  734  993 -3.857   30 -3.702   30 -4.510   30 -4.489    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.164   30 -4.473   28 -4.505

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.678 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Champion Christian      18 16  0 2868 2932 -1.885    6 -1.779    6 -1.829    8 -1.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.662    4 -1.109   13 -2.692
Randall                  9 17  0 2016 2112 -1.231    7 -2.032    7 -2.046    6 -1.636    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  9.311    6 -1.580    5 -1.691
Arlington Baptist       10 23  0 2424 2900 -1.909   12 -2.398   12 -2.494   10 -2.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.995   14 -2.304   12 -2.686
Kansas Christian        16 16  0 2617 2601 -2.597   14 -2.518   14 -2.653   11 -2.526    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  7.522   10 -2.225   14 -2.828
Dallas Christian         5 26  0 2224 3009 -2.681   23 -3.175   23 -3.493   26 -3.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.068   21 -3.036   26 -4.186
SW Adventist             0 20  0 1207 2018 -2.976   32 -3.893   32 -5.056   32 -5.323    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.554   33 -5.331   32 -5.314

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.553 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson FL               8 11  0 1340 1528 -1.357    4 -1.432    4 -1.504    5 -1.574    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.778    7 -1.667    3 -1.482
Bob Jones U.            13 13  0 2092 2002 -1.362    5 -1.529    5 -1.605    2 -1.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.853    2 -0.902    4 -1.560
Pensacola Christian      8 21  0 2094 2526 -2.043   13 -2.460   13 -2.582   17 -2.862    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  7.582   16 -2.482   18 -3.243
Toccoa Falls             8 24  0 2243 2650 -2.017   16 -2.618   16 -2.787   13 -2.651    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  7.205   19 -2.748   10 -2.554
Trinity Baptist          5 18  0 1343 1793 -2.089   17 -2.674   17 -2.867   19 -2.988    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  6.744   29 -3.888    8 -2.089
Southeastern Baptist     2 24  0 1831 2565 -1.414   18 -2.696   18 -2.897   18 -2.979    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  6.743   11 -2.263   24 -3.695
Trinity FL               2 13  0 1065 1246 -2.586   24 -3.329   24 -3.728   22 -3.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.780   23 -3.262   21 -3.496

USCAA-II: strength=-2.882 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson & Wales NC      18  8  0 2283 2076 -1.279      -0.726      -0.811      -0.997      0.0000      0.0000      13.615       0.024      -2.018
Cincinnati-Clermont     22  5  0 2446 2226 -2.053      -0.794      -0.886      -1.723      0.0000      0.0000      12.998      -0.880      -2.566
Central Penn            14  6  0 1627 1398 -1.270      -0.832      -0.929      -0.576      0.0000      0.0000      13.381      -0.648      -0.504
East-West                7 22  0 2299 2676 -0.911      -1.637      -1.677      -1.705      0.0000      0.0000      10.275      -0.791      -2.619
Andrews                 13 11  0 1769 1635 -1.787      -1.675      -1.724      -1.477      0.0000      0.0000      10.128      -2.078      -0.876
Kent St-Tuscarawas      15 11  0 2167 2002 -1.958      -1.866      -1.876      -1.645      0.0000      0.0000       9.629      -1.191      -2.100
Camp U-Harrodsburg       8 20  0 2131 2472 -1.526    8 -2.124    8 -2.144    9 -2.271    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.855    8 -1.887   11 -2.654
Villa Maria              7 14  0 1660 1722 -2.012      -2.448      -2.565      -2.380      0.0000      0.0000       7.849      -2.067      -2.693
Camp U-Somerset          6 17  0 1920 2129 -2.011      -2.575      -2.727      -2.483      0.0000      0.0000       7.387      -1.605      -3.361
Williamson Trade         5  7  0  779  751 -2.551      -2.749      -2.939      -2.521      0.0000      0.0000       6.770      -3.580      -1.461
Wright St-Lake           5 23  0 2169 2863 -2.582      -2.949      -3.180      -3.810      0.0000      0.0000       5.662      -2.617      -5.002
Five Towns               7 10  0 1350 1390 -4.062      -3.497      -4.147      -4.152      0.0000      0.0000       3.983      -3.516      -4.789
Warren Wilson            1 19  0 1332 1778 -2.183      -3.594      -4.338      -3.545      0.0000      0.0000       3.905      -3.687      -3.402
Crown TN                 3 11  0 1154 1368 -3.882      -3.752      -4.633      -4.729      0.0000      0.0000       3.108      -3.546      -5.913
Christendom              1 17  0  971 1594 -3.300      -3.829      -4.887      -4.577      0.0000      0.0000       2.857      -5.221      -3.934
SW Adventist             0 20  0 1207 2018 -2.976   32 -3.893   32 -5.056   32 -5.323    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.554   33 -5.331   32 -5.314
Southern St OH           1 18  0 1258 1874 -3.695      -3.969      -5.251      -5.349      0.0000      0.0000       2.400      -5.212      -5.486
Webb Institute           0  5  0  145  387 -4.460      -4.661      -7.576      -9.600      0.0000      0.0000       0.000      -11.675      -7.525

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II Mid-E   73 113   0 0.392    1 -2.145
NCCAA-II South   46 124   0 0.271    2 -2.553
NCCAA-II SW      58 118   0 0.330    3 -2.678
USCAA-II        133 244   0 0.353    4 -2.882
Midwest Chr      75 113   0 0.399    5 -3.254

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.248 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:42:58 2022

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