Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             33  2  0 3288 2224  0.430    1  1.726    1  1.494    1  2.009    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.404    1  2.051    1  1.967
Dalhousie               36  2  0 3162 2460 -0.319    2  1.321    2  1.091    2  0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.462    8  0.442    2  1.332
Ottawa ON               31  8  0 3203 2715 -0.132    3  0.844    3  0.621    4  0.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.904    9  0.410    4  0.634
Alberta                 27  4  0 2775 2268 -0.412    4  0.831    4  0.607    5  0.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 18.839    4  0.706    6  0.245
Calgary                 28 10  0 3155 2724 -0.128    5  0.643    5  0.412    6  0.392    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.281   12  0.193    5  0.591
Lakehead                20  8  0 2366 2178 -0.420    6  0.321    6  0.130    9 -0.103    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 16.997   11  0.288   16 -0.493
UBC                     24  8  0 2921 2512 -0.487    7  0.282    8  0.093    7  0.297    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 17.044    3  0.972   12 -0.378
Ryerson                 19  9  0 2411 2011 -0.158    8  0.280    9  0.091    3  0.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 17.228    2  1.037    3  0.656
Western ON              26 11  0 3250 2907 -0.363    9  0.267    7  0.100    8  0.042    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 17.005    6  0.497   13 -0.413
Laurentian              21 10  0 2577 2397 -0.448   10  0.158   10 -0.012   10 -0.147    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 16.509   13  0.132   14 -0.425
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  16 10  0 2001 1938 -0.502   11 -0.089   11 -0.240   12 -0.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.745   23 -0.344    9 -0.227
Saskatchewan            19 10  0 2367 2296 -0.711   12 -0.089   12 -0.240   26 -0.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 15.652   26 -0.373   23 -0.980
Queen's ON              17 12  0 2333 2257 -0.484   13 -0.111   13 -0.266   16 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.672   17 -0.124   19 -0.648
McMaster                19 14  0 2879 2785 -0.411   14 -0.112   14 -0.268   13 -0.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.717    5  0.584   29 -1.253
Manitoba                22  7  0 2442 2162 -0.954   15 -0.147   15 -0.305   14 -0.337    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.606   19 -0.196   15 -0.478
Brock                   15 12  0 1997 1992 -0.471   16 -0.181   16 -0.322   22 -0.616    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.439   38 -1.006    8 -0.226
UNB                     19  9  0 2340 2154 -0.763   17 -0.206   17 -0.349   15 -0.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.457   18 -0.130   17 -0.564
St Mary's NS            17 12  0 2270 2291 -0.645   18 -0.272   18 -0.391   24 -0.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 15.038   27 -0.450   20 -0.817
Laurier                 16 13  0 2341 2216 -0.475   19 -0.284   19 -0.407   11 -0.182    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 15.264   16 -0.096   10 -0.267
Victoria                19 10  0 2276 2104 -0.821   20 -0.300   20 -0.424   19 -0.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 15.051   36 -0.843    7 -0.216
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lethbridge U.           18 15  0 2920 2953 -0.666   21 -0.332   21 -0.457   23 -0.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.691    7  0.473   38 -1.739
Bishop's                15 17  0 2500 2624 -0.453   22 -0.375   22 -0.504   27 -0.710    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.613   25 -0.359   26 -1.061
Winnipeg                15 12  0 2143 2103 -0.691   23 -0.376   23 -0.505   28 -0.803    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.626   35 -0.762   21 -0.843
Regina                  15 18  0 2753 2743 -0.450   24 -0.473   24 -0.609   18 -0.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 14.426   14  0.008   24 -1.037
Fraser Valley           16 11  0 2264 2196 -0.877   25 -0.497   25 -0.609   25 -0.648    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 14.271   20 -0.248   25 -1.048
UQAM                    14 16  0 2296 2320 -0.524   26 -0.511   26 -0.612   21 -0.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 14.318   31 -0.566   18 -0.626
St Francis Xavier       14 15  0 2454 2530 -0.618   27 -0.528   27 -0.629   20 -0.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 14.214   10  0.395   35 -1.579
Concordia QC            15 15  0 2286 2216 -0.678   28 -0.636   28 -0.709   17 -0.461    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 14.056   33 -0.642   11 -0.281
Guelph                  15 18  0 2673 2743 -0.607   29 -0.652   29 -0.727   31 -0.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.906   21 -0.337   32 -1.399
Windsor                 12 18  0 2410 2557 -0.527   30 -0.681   30 -0.761   30 -0.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.679   22 -0.340   30 -1.348
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Memorial                12 18  0 2291 2396 -0.639   31 -0.790   31 -0.879   34 -1.014    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.349   37 -0.884   28 -1.145
UCCB                    12 17  0 2271 2355 -0.703   32 -0.827   32 -0.920   29 -0.805    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.250   28 -0.524   27 -1.086
Toronto                  8 21  0 2266 2412 -0.531   33 -1.074   33 -1.161   32 -0.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 12.397   30 -0.561   31 -1.391
Thompson Rivers         13 14  0 2125 2066 -1.124   34 -1.112   34 -1.203   33 -0.995    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.197   39 -1.127   22 -0.864
Acadia                   9 23  0 2486 2781 -0.737   35 -1.177   35 -1.264   37 -1.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.824   34 -0.714   39 -1.824
Nipissing                9 20  0 2008 2451 -1.134   36 -1.237   36 -1.321   43 -1.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 11.283   43 -1.755   37 -1.630
Brandon                  7 18  0 1984 2140 -0.788   37 -1.257   37 -1.344   35 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.668   32 -0.616   36 -1.613
Mount Royal              8 23  0 2580 2911 -0.774   38 -1.307   38 -1.360   40 -1.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.458   24 -0.345   45 -2.601
Waterloo                 9 20  0 2154 2400 -0.939   39 -1.318   39 -1.373   39 -1.431    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 11.427   42 -1.334   34 -1.528
Laval                    3 18  0 1638 1818 -0.628   40 -1.527   40 -1.599   36 -1.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.740   29 -0.553   40 -1.912
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UPEI                     6 26  0 2355 2661 -0.797   41 -1.572   41 -1.648   38 -1.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.510   40 -1.217   33 -1.420
York ON                  8 24  0 2406 2760 -1.029   42 -1.574   42 -1.651   42 -1.672    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 10.377   41 -1.281   42 -2.062
UBC-Okanagan             4 18  0 1521 2020 -1.124   43 -1.662   43 -1.706   47 -2.268    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.810   45 -1.919   46 -2.617
UNBC                     6 24  0 2169 2591 -1.153   44 -1.843   44 -1.848   44 -1.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.568   44 -1.779   41 -1.983
Algoma                   3 23  0 1777 2337 -1.129   45 -2.040   45 -2.054   46 -2.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.973   47 -2.104   43 -2.367
Trinity Western          3 21  0 2095 2384 -1.121   46 -2.188   46 -2.228   41 -1.667    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.836   15 -0.079   48 -3.256
Ontario Tech             1 26  0 1818 2528 -1.248   47 -2.494   47 -2.622   48 -2.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  7.544   48 -2.238   47 -2.723
MacEwan                  1 25  0 1880 2311 -1.278   48 -2.574   48 -2.723   45 -2.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.493   46 -2.013   44 -2.370


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.698 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               36  2  0 3162 2460 -0.319    2  1.321    2  1.091    2  0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 20.462    8  0.442    2  1.332
UNB                     19  9  0 2340 2154 -0.763   17 -0.206   17 -0.349   15 -0.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.457   18 -0.130   17 -0.564
St Mary's NS            17 12  0 2270 2291 -0.645   18 -0.272   18 -0.391   24 -0.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 15.038   27 -0.450   20 -0.817
St Francis Xavier       14 15  0 2454 2530 -0.618   27 -0.528   27 -0.629   20 -0.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 14.214   10  0.395   35 -1.579
Memorial                12 18  0 2291 2396 -0.639   31 -0.790   31 -0.879   34 -1.014    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.349   37 -0.884   28 -1.145
UCCB                    12 17  0 2271 2355 -0.703   32 -0.827   32 -0.920   29 -0.805    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.250   28 -0.524   27 -1.086
Acadia                   9 23  0 2486 2781 -0.737   35 -1.177   35 -1.264   37 -1.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.824   34 -0.714   39 -1.824
UPEI                     6 26  0 2355 2661 -0.797   41 -1.572   41 -1.648   38 -1.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.510   40 -1.217   33 -1.420

Can W: strength=-0.857 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Alberta                 27  4  0 2775 2268 -0.412    4  0.831    4  0.607    5  0.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 18.839    4  0.706    6  0.245
Calgary                 28 10  0 3155 2724 -0.128    5  0.643    5  0.412    6  0.392    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.281   12  0.193    5  0.591
UBC                     24  8  0 2921 2512 -0.487    7  0.282    8  0.093    7  0.297    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 17.044    3  0.972   12 -0.378
Saskatchewan            19 10  0 2367 2296 -0.711   12 -0.089   12 -0.240   26 -0.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 15.652   26 -0.373   23 -0.980
Manitoba                22  7  0 2442 2162 -0.954   15 -0.147   15 -0.305   14 -0.337    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.606   19 -0.196   15 -0.478
Victoria                19 10  0 2276 2104 -0.821   20 -0.300   20 -0.424   19 -0.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 15.051   36 -0.843    7 -0.216
Lethbridge U.           18 15  0 2920 2953 -0.666   21 -0.332   21 -0.457   23 -0.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.691    7  0.473   38 -1.739
Winnipeg                15 12  0 2143 2103 -0.691   23 -0.376   23 -0.505   28 -0.803    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.626   35 -0.762   21 -0.843
Regina                  15 18  0 2753 2743 -0.450   24 -0.473   24 -0.609   18 -0.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 14.426   14  0.008   24 -1.037
Fraser Valley           16 11  0 2264 2196 -0.877   25 -0.497   25 -0.609   25 -0.648    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 14.271   20 -0.248   25 -1.048
Thompson Rivers         13 14  0 2125 2066 -1.124   34 -1.112   34 -1.203   33 -0.995    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.197   39 -1.127   22 -0.864
Brandon                  7 18  0 1984 2140 -0.788   37 -1.257   37 -1.344   35 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.668   32 -0.616   36 -1.613
Mount Royal              8 23  0 2580 2911 -0.774   38 -1.307   38 -1.360   40 -1.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.458   24 -0.345   45 -2.601
UBC-Okanagan             4 18  0 1521 2020 -1.124   43 -1.662   43 -1.706   47 -2.268    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.810   45 -1.919   46 -2.617
UNBC                     6 24  0 2169 2591 -1.153   44 -1.843   44 -1.848   44 -1.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.568   44 -1.779   41 -1.983
Trinity Western          3 21  0 2095 2384 -1.121   46 -2.188   46 -2.228   41 -1.667    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.836   15 -0.079   48 -3.256
MacEwan                  1 25  0 1880 2311 -1.278   48 -2.574   48 -2.723   45 -2.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.493   46 -2.013   44 -2.370

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.564 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             33  2  0 3288 2224  0.430    1  1.726    1  1.494    1  2.009    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.404    1  2.051    1  1.967
Ottawa ON               31  8  0 3203 2715 -0.132    3  0.844    3  0.621    4  0.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.904    9  0.410    4  0.634
Lakehead                20  8  0 2366 2178 -0.420    6  0.321    6  0.130    9 -0.103    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 16.997   11  0.288   16 -0.493
Ryerson                 19  9  0 2411 2011 -0.158    8  0.280    9  0.091    3  0.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 17.228    2  1.037    3  0.656
Western ON              26 11  0 3250 2907 -0.363    9  0.267    7  0.100    8  0.042    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 17.005    6  0.497   13 -0.413
Laurentian              21 10  0 2577 2397 -0.448   10  0.158   10 -0.012   10 -0.147    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 16.509   13  0.132   14 -0.425
Queen's ON              17 12  0 2333 2257 -0.484   13 -0.111   13 -0.266   16 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.672   17 -0.124   19 -0.648
McMaster                19 14  0 2879 2785 -0.411   14 -0.112   14 -0.268   13 -0.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.717    5  0.584   29 -1.253
Brock                   15 12  0 1997 1992 -0.471   16 -0.181   16 -0.322   22 -0.616    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.439   38 -1.006    8 -0.226
Laurier                 16 13  0 2341 2216 -0.475   19 -0.284   19 -0.407   11 -0.182    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 15.264   16 -0.096   10 -0.267
Guelph                  15 18  0 2673 2743 -0.607   29 -0.652   29 -0.727   31 -0.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.906   21 -0.337   32 -1.399
Windsor                 12 18  0 2410 2557 -0.527   30 -0.681   30 -0.761   30 -0.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.679   22 -0.340   30 -1.348
Toronto                  8 21  0 2266 2412 -0.531   33 -1.074   33 -1.161   32 -0.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 12.397   30 -0.561   31 -1.391
Nipissing                9 20  0 2008 2451 -1.134   36 -1.237   36 -1.321   43 -1.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 11.283   43 -1.755   37 -1.630
Waterloo                 9 20  0 2154 2400 -0.939   39 -1.318   39 -1.373   39 -1.431    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 11.427   42 -1.334   34 -1.528
York ON                  8 24  0 2406 2760 -1.029   42 -1.574   42 -1.651   42 -1.672    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 10.377   41 -1.281   42 -2.062
Algoma                   3 23  0 1777 2337 -1.129   45 -2.040   45 -2.054   46 -2.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  8.973   47 -2.104   43 -2.367
Ontario Tech             1 26  0 1818 2528 -1.248   47 -2.494   47 -2.622   48 -2.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  7.544   48 -2.238   47 -2.723

RSEQ: strength=-0.663 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  16 10  0 2001 1938 -0.502   11 -0.089   11 -0.240   12 -0.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.745   23 -0.344    9 -0.227
Bishop's                15 17  0 2500 2624 -0.453   22 -0.375   22 -0.504   27 -0.710    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.613   25 -0.359   26 -1.061
UQAM                    14 16  0 2296 2320 -0.524   26 -0.511   26 -0.612   21 -0.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 14.318   31 -0.566   18 -0.626
Concordia QC            15 15  0 2286 2216 -0.678   28 -0.636   28 -0.709   17 -0.461    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 14.056   33 -0.642   11 -0.281
Laval                    3 18  0 1638 1818 -0.628   40 -1.527   40 -1.599   36 -1.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.740   29 -0.553   40 -1.912

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   282 269   0 0.512    1 -0.564
RSEQ             63  76   0 0.453    2 -0.663
Atl U Sport     125 122   0 0.506    3 -0.698
Can W           245 248   0 0.497    4 -0.857

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.248 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:42:58 2022

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