Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       31 16 253 166 -0.008 22.718    1  0.229    1  0.229    2  0.265    1 0.5362   15  0.490    5  0.300    5  0.231   16 -0.033
METS         29 18 212 156  0.040 23.775    2  0.195    2  0.191    4  0.204    2 0.5323   23  0.301   14  0.075    1  0.332   27 -0.278
CUBS         28 19 270 200  0.067 24.246    3  0.183    3  0.176    3  0.246    3 0.5299    6  0.663    1  0.444   15  0.049   10  0.127
GIANTS       28 19 222 175  0.040 23.752    4  0.164    4  0.159    6  0.164    5 0.5258   16  0.471    9  0.181   10  0.147   25 -0.258
DODGERS      29 18 272 209 -0.030 22.407    5  0.156    5  0.150    5  0.172    4 0.5258   13  0.564    8  0.275   14  0.069    3  0.345
PHILLIES     28 18 216 192 -0.017 22.330    6  0.150    6  0.149   12  0.079    6 0.5246   19  0.356   19 -0.004    8  0.162    6  0.255
PADRES       27 18 199 161 -0.010 21.867    7  0.137    7  0.136    8  0.116    9 0.5215   18  0.386   16  0.059    7  0.173   29 -0.411
YANKEES      27 19 266 176  0.003 22.530    8  0.133    8  0.123    1  0.272    7 0.5225    9  0.606    2  0.414   12  0.130    9  0.131
MARINERS     26 19 216 193  0.022 22.574    9  0.120    9  0.121   11  0.086    8 0.5223    5  0.664    7  0.284   20 -0.113   23 -0.206
CARDINALS    26 21 224 186  0.026 23.603   10  0.090   10  0.090    7  0.147   10 0.5158    8  0.663    4  0.344   18 -0.050   24 -0.230
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DIAMONDBACKS 25 22 243 240  0.047 24.051   11  0.072   11  0.072   13  0.059   12 0.5105    2  0.762    3  0.356   24 -0.237   12  0.012
TWINS        26 21 194 159 -0.016 22.832   12  0.069   12  0.069    9  0.107   13 0.5103   25  0.259   20 -0.056    4  0.270   15 -0.024
ASTROS       24 22 185 165  0.060 23.791   13  0.066   13  0.065   10  0.103   11 0.5113   17  0.425   13  0.079   13  0.126   18 -0.055
RANGERS      25 23 166 165  0.010 23.944   14  0.038   14  0.039   14  0.018   14 0.5058   28  0.091   24 -0.273    2  0.309   26 -0.273
ROYALS       26 22 159 160 -0.044 22.970   15  0.036   15  0.037   19 -0.032   16 0.5020   29  0.033   26 -0.365    3  0.301   21 -0.164
GUARDIANS    25 21 182 202 -0.054 21.847   16  0.027   16  0.031   21 -0.085   15 0.5050    7  0.663   12  0.112   25 -0.283   30 -0.450
BRAVES       24 23 195 184 -0.021 22.862   17  0.001   17  0.002   15  0.013   17 0.5000   24  0.290   22 -0.124    9  0.151   20 -0.075
BREWERS      22 25 198 205  0.051 24.228   18 -0.017   18 -0.019   16  0.011   19 0.4945   10  0.604   10  0.150   21 -0.129   28 -0.325
ATHLETICS    22 25 199 260  0.042 24.219   19 -0.025   19 -0.022   23 -0.108   18 0.4953   11  0.579   18  0.009   23 -0.224    4  0.327
REDS         24 24 220 190 -0.077 22.266   20 -0.045   20 -0.045   17  0.005   21 0.4912   14  0.524   15  0.070   19 -0.061   22 -0.187
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      23 25 234 226 -0.038 23.012   21 -0.054   22 -0.054   18  0.000   23 0.4905    1  0.762    6  0.297   26 -0.296   11  0.123
BLUE JAYS    22 24 179 207 -0.025 22.454   22 -0.054   21 -0.045   22 -0.089   20 0.4935   27  0.176   25 -0.317   11  0.139    5  0.279
ANGELS       20 25 181 240  0.031 23.114   23 -0.071   23 -0.059   24 -0.174   22 0.4906    3  0.754   11  0.115   30 -0.463   17 -0.043
RAYS         21 25 179 188 -0.043 22.115   24 -0.090   24 -0.085   20 -0.084   24 0.4830   21  0.353   23 -0.169   17  0.001   14 -0.012
MARLINS      18 27 187 253  0.012 22.787   25 -0.142   25 -0.134   26 -0.190   26 0.4771    4  0.711   17  0.055   29 -0.434   19 -0.057
NATIONALS    21 27 207 256 -0.078 22.511   26 -0.145   26 -0.135   28 -0.208   25 0.4797   12  0.577   21 -0.093   27 -0.323    8  0.150
PIRATES      15 32 141 203  0.041 24.309   27 -0.239   27 -0.240   27 -0.194   27 0.4621   30 -0.058   30 -0.589    6  0.202    7  0.204
ORIOLES      15 30 169 254 -0.031 22.063   28 -0.252   28 -0.255   29 -0.293   28 0.4592   22  0.341   28 -0.388   22 -0.197    2  0.517
WHITE SOX    14 33 157 210  0.010 23.687   29 -0.284   29 -0.292   25 -0.185   29 0.4527   26  0.211   27 -0.385   16  0.016   13 -0.012
ROCKIES       8 38 152 296  0.042 24.064   30 -0.449   30 -0.462   30 -0.456   30 0.4279   20  0.354   29 -0.541   28 -0.371    1  0.621

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       28 19 222 175  0.040 23.752    4  0.164    4  0.159    6  0.164    5 0.5258   16  0.471    9  0.181   10  0.147   25 -0.258
DODGERS      29 18 272 209 -0.030 22.407    5  0.156    5  0.150    5  0.172    4 0.5258   13  0.564    8  0.275   14  0.069    3  0.345
PADRES       27 18 199 161 -0.010 21.867    7  0.137    7  0.136    8  0.116    9 0.5215   18  0.386   16  0.059    7  0.173   29 -0.411
DIAMONDBACKS 25 22 243 240  0.047 24.051   11  0.072   11  0.072   13  0.059   12 0.5105    2  0.762    3  0.356   24 -0.237   12  0.012
ROCKIES       8 38 152 296  0.042 24.064   30 -0.449   30 -0.462   30 -0.456   30 0.4279   20  0.354   29 -0.541   28 -0.371    1  0.621

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         28 19 270 200  0.067 24.246    3  0.183    3  0.176    3  0.246    3 0.5299    6  0.663    1  0.444   15  0.049   10  0.127
CARDINALS    26 21 224 186  0.026 23.603   10  0.090   10  0.090    7  0.147   10 0.5158    8  0.663    4  0.344   18 -0.050   24 -0.230
BREWERS      22 25 198 205  0.051 24.228   18 -0.017   18 -0.019   16  0.011   19 0.4945   10  0.604   10  0.150   21 -0.129   28 -0.325
REDS         24 24 220 190 -0.077 22.266   20 -0.045   20 -0.045   17  0.005   21 0.4912   14  0.524   15  0.070   19 -0.061   22 -0.187
PIRATES      15 32 141 203  0.041 24.309   27 -0.239   27 -0.240   27 -0.194   27 0.4621   30 -0.058   30 -0.589    6  0.202    7  0.204

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         29 18 212 156  0.040 23.775    2  0.195    2  0.191    4  0.204    2 0.5323   23  0.301   14  0.075    1  0.332   27 -0.278
PHILLIES     28 18 216 192 -0.017 22.330    6  0.150    6  0.149   12  0.079    6 0.5246   19  0.356   19 -0.004    8  0.162    6  0.255
BRAVES       24 23 195 184 -0.021 22.862   17  0.001   17  0.002   15  0.013   17 0.5000   24  0.290   22 -0.124    9  0.151   20 -0.075
MARLINS      18 27 187 253  0.012 22.787   25 -0.142   25 -0.134   26 -0.190   26 0.4771    4  0.711   17  0.055   29 -0.434   19 -0.057
NATIONALS    21 27 207 256 -0.078 22.511   26 -0.145   26 -0.135   28 -0.208   25 0.4797   12  0.577   21 -0.093   27 -0.323    8  0.150

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     26 19 216 193  0.022 22.574    9  0.120    9  0.121   11  0.086    8 0.5223    5  0.664    7  0.284   20 -0.113   23 -0.206
ASTROS       24 22 185 165  0.060 23.791   13  0.066   13  0.065   10  0.103   11 0.5113   17  0.425   13  0.079   13  0.126   18 -0.055
RANGERS      25 23 166 165  0.010 23.944   14  0.038   14  0.039   14  0.018   14 0.5058   28  0.091   24 -0.273    2  0.309   26 -0.273
ATHLETICS    22 25 199 260  0.042 24.219   19 -0.025   19 -0.022   23 -0.108   18 0.4953   11  0.579   18  0.009   23 -0.224    4  0.327
ANGELS       20 25 181 240  0.031 23.114   23 -0.071   23 -0.059   24 -0.174   22 0.4906    3  0.754   11  0.115   30 -0.463   17 -0.043

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       31 16 253 166 -0.008 22.718    1  0.229    1  0.229    2  0.265    1 0.5362   15  0.490    5  0.300    5  0.231   16 -0.033
TWINS        26 21 194 159 -0.016 22.832   12  0.069   12  0.069    9  0.107   13 0.5103   25  0.259   20 -0.056    4  0.270   15 -0.024
ROYALS       26 22 159 160 -0.044 22.970   15  0.036   15  0.037   19 -0.032   16 0.5020   29  0.033   26 -0.365    3  0.301   21 -0.164
GUARDIANS    25 21 182 202 -0.054 21.847   16  0.027   16  0.031   21 -0.085   15 0.5050    7  0.663   12  0.112   25 -0.283   30 -0.450
WHITE SOX    14 33 157 210  0.010 23.687   29 -0.284   29 -0.292   25 -0.185   29 0.4527   26  0.211   27 -0.385   16  0.016   13 -0.012

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      27 19 266 176  0.003 22.530    8  0.133    8  0.123    1  0.272    7 0.5225    9  0.606    2  0.414   12  0.130    9  0.131
RED SOX      23 25 234 226 -0.038 23.012   21 -0.054   22 -0.054   18  0.000   23 0.4905    1  0.762    6  0.297   26 -0.296   11  0.123
BLUE JAYS    22 24 179 207 -0.025 22.454   22 -0.054   21 -0.045   22 -0.089   20 0.4935   27  0.176   25 -0.317   11  0.139    5  0.279
RAYS         21 25 179 188 -0.043 22.115   24 -0.090   24 -0.085   20 -0.084   24 0.4830   21  0.353   23 -0.169   17  0.001   14 -0.012
ORIOLES      15 30 169 254 -0.031 22.063   28 -0.252   28 -0.255   29 -0.293   28 0.4592   22  0.341   28 -0.388   22 -0.197    2  0.517

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 115 121 0.487    1  0.064
NL WEST    117 115 0.504    2  0.026
AL CENTRAL 122 113 0.519    3  0.020
AL WEST    117 114 0.506    4 -0.021
NL EAST    120 113 0.515    5 -0.030
AL EAST    108 123 0.468    6 -0.059

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.096 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon May 19 05:30:07 2025
games through: Sun May 18 2025

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