Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       49 24 396 279  0.034 37.334    1  0.977    1  0.235    1  0.252    1 0.5476  0.732  0.437  0.067 -0.433
DODGERS      47 26 378 258 -0.048 34.851    2  0.844    2  0.159    3  0.198    3 0.5271  0.395  0.068  0.328 -0.007
ROCKIES      47 27 392 327 -0.031 36.054    3  0.822    3  0.158    6  0.116    2 0.5286  0.378 -0.029  0.261  0.596
DIAMONDBACKS 45 27 378 279 -0.051 34.417    4  0.763    4  0.133    4  0.142    4 0.5250  0.250 -0.108  0.392  0.540
YANKEES      39 30 394 287  0.012 34.776    5  0.640    5  0.087    2  0.199    5 0.5216  0.585  0.240  0.157  0.168
INDIANS      38 32 337 284  0.065 36.818    6  0.636    6  0.086    5  0.138    6 0.5208  0.351 -0.029  0.306  0.171
RED SOX      40 32 336 306  0.012 36.414    7  0.613    7  0.076    9  0.055    7 0.5174  0.466 -0.013  0.123 -0.085
NATIONALS    43 29 398 322 -0.118 32.642    8  0.587    8  0.063    8  0.059   10 0.5092  0.745  0.258 -0.140 -0.127
RAYS         39 36 360 341  0.052 39.155    9  0.565    9  0.052    7  0.067    9 0.5112  0.577  0.101  0.033 -0.094
TWINS        36 33 325 365  0.039 35.741   10  0.552   10  0.045   16 -0.016    8 0.5116  0.576  0.017 -0.049  0.280
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORIOLES      35 36 320 380  0.088 38.237   11  0.531   11  0.034   22 -0.058   13 0.5070  0.739  0.135 -0.251 -0.219
MARINERS     37 37 356 361  0.055 38.738   12  0.522   12  0.028   11  0.029   11 0.5081  0.663  0.146 -0.087 -0.110
ROYALS       35 36 282 316  0.070 37.677   13  0.521   13  0.027   17 -0.016   12 0.5076  0.403 -0.140  0.107 -0.102
ANGELS       37 38 321 323  0.048 39.089   14  0.509   14  0.017   13  0.013   14 0.5054  0.347 -0.158  0.184  0.055
BLUE JAYS    35 36 306 325  0.035 36.680   15  0.499   15  0.009   15 -0.010   16 0.5023  0.425 -0.114  0.094 -0.001
RANGERS      35 36 348 333  0.023 36.219   16  0.497   16  0.003   10  0.046   15 0.5042  0.574  0.078  0.015  0.153
BREWERS      39 35 355 348 -0.071 35.059   17  0.491   17 -0.002   19 -0.023   19 0.4966  0.475 -0.083  0.037  0.253
CUBS         36 35 332 316 -0.055 34.109   18  0.472   18 -0.019   20 -0.024   21 0.4925  0.552 -0.013 -0.034 -0.018
TIGERS       32 39 341 357  0.078 37.881   19  0.467   19 -0.023   14 -0.002   17 0.4990  0.645  0.098 -0.101  0.078
ATHLETICS    31 41 304 386  0.103 39.227   20  0.445   20 -0.037   24 -0.080   20 0.4944  0.517 -0.102 -0.058  0.135
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WHITE SOX    31 39 323 323  0.057 36.728   21  0.436   21 -0.043   12  0.017   18 0.4969  0.469 -0.049  0.082  0.127
CARDINALS    33 37 307 315 -0.033 34.251   22  0.422   22 -0.052   18 -0.017   22 0.4860  0.551 -0.008 -0.026 -0.345
PIRATES      33 39 307 339 -0.032 35.364   23  0.388   23 -0.069   25 -0.085   23 0.4829  0.474 -0.145 -0.024 -0.089
MARLINS      32 38 331 341 -0.059 33.581   24  0.363   24 -0.082   21 -0.057   24 0.4817  0.679  0.076 -0.189 -0.160
BRAVES       33 38 332 363 -0.131 32.128   25  0.284   25 -0.110   27 -0.147   26 0.4744  0.707  0.014 -0.307 -0.162
PADRES       29 44 261 378  0.029 37.824   26  0.259   26 -0.116   29 -0.189   25 0.4778  0.367 -0.343 -0.035  0.080
REDS         30 41 349 379 -0.060 34.057   27  0.237   27 -0.127   23 -0.076   27 0.4721  0.828  0.210 -0.362 -0.022
METS         31 40 339 389 -0.105 32.874   28  0.222   28 -0.133   26 -0.138   28 0.4710  0.859  0.181 -0.457 -0.319
GIANTS       27 47 274 364  0.011 37.805   29  0.129   29 -0.167   28 -0.181   29 0.4684  0.533 -0.188 -0.174 -0.497
PHILLIES     22 48 270 368 -0.028 34.677   30  0.000   30 -0.247   30 -0.222   30 0.4488  0.380 -0.365 -0.080  0.151

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      47 26 378 258 -0.048 34.851    2  0.844    2  0.159    3  0.198    3 0.5271  0.395  0.068  0.328 -0.007
ROCKIES      47 27 392 327 -0.031 36.054    3  0.822    3  0.158    6  0.116    2 0.5286  0.378 -0.029  0.261  0.596
DIAMONDBACKS 45 27 378 279 -0.051 34.417    4  0.763    4  0.133    4  0.142    4 0.5250  0.250 -0.108  0.392  0.540
PADRES       29 44 261 378  0.029 37.824   26  0.259   26 -0.116   29 -0.189   25 0.4778  0.367 -0.343 -0.035  0.080
GIANTS       27 47 274 364  0.011 37.805   29  0.129   29 -0.167   28 -0.181   29 0.4684  0.533 -0.188 -0.174 -0.497

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      39 35 355 348 -0.071 35.059   17  0.491   17 -0.002   19 -0.023   19 0.4966  0.475 -0.083  0.037  0.253
CUBS         36 35 332 316 -0.055 34.109   18  0.472   18 -0.019   20 -0.024   21 0.4925  0.552 -0.013 -0.034 -0.018
CARDINALS    33 37 307 315 -0.033 34.251   22  0.422   22 -0.052   18 -0.017   22 0.4860  0.551 -0.008 -0.026 -0.345
PIRATES      33 39 307 339 -0.032 35.364   23  0.388   23 -0.069   25 -0.085   23 0.4829  0.474 -0.145 -0.024 -0.089
REDS         30 41 349 379 -0.060 34.057   27  0.237   27 -0.127   23 -0.076   27 0.4721  0.828  0.210 -0.362 -0.022

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    43 29 398 322 -0.118 32.642    8  0.587    8  0.063    8  0.059   10 0.5092  0.745  0.258 -0.140 -0.127
MARLINS      32 38 331 341 -0.059 33.581   24  0.363   24 -0.082   21 -0.057   24 0.4817  0.679  0.076 -0.189 -0.160
BRAVES       33 38 332 363 -0.131 32.128   25  0.284   25 -0.110   27 -0.147   26 0.4744  0.707  0.014 -0.307 -0.162
METS         31 40 339 389 -0.105 32.874   28  0.222   28 -0.133   26 -0.138   28 0.4710  0.859  0.181 -0.457 -0.319
PHILLIES     22 48 270 368 -0.028 34.677   30  0.000   30 -0.247   30 -0.222   30 0.4488  0.380 -0.365 -0.080  0.151

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       49 24 396 279  0.034 37.334    1  0.977    1  0.235    1  0.252    1 0.5476  0.732  0.437  0.067 -0.433
MARINERS     37 37 356 361  0.055 38.738   12  0.522   12  0.028   11  0.029   11 0.5081  0.663  0.146 -0.087 -0.110
ANGELS       37 38 321 323  0.048 39.089   14  0.509   14  0.017   13  0.013   14 0.5054  0.347 -0.158  0.184  0.055
RANGERS      35 36 348 333  0.023 36.219   16  0.497   16  0.003   10  0.046   15 0.5042  0.574  0.078  0.015  0.153
ATHLETICS    31 41 304 386  0.103 39.227   20  0.445   20 -0.037   24 -0.080   20 0.4944  0.517 -0.102 -0.058  0.135

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      38 32 337 284  0.065 36.818    6  0.636    6  0.086    5  0.138    6 0.5208  0.351 -0.029  0.306  0.171
TWINS        36 33 325 365  0.039 35.741   10  0.552   10  0.045   16 -0.016    8 0.5116  0.576  0.017 -0.049  0.280
ROYALS       35 36 282 316  0.070 37.677   13  0.521   13  0.027   17 -0.016   12 0.5076  0.403 -0.140  0.107 -0.102
TIGERS       32 39 341 357  0.078 37.881   19  0.467   19 -0.023   14 -0.002   17 0.4990  0.645  0.098 -0.101  0.078
WHITE SOX    31 39 323 323  0.057 36.728   21  0.436   21 -0.043   12  0.017   18 0.4969  0.469 -0.049  0.082  0.127

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      39 30 394 287  0.012 34.776    5  0.640    5  0.087    2  0.199    5 0.5216  0.585  0.240  0.157  0.168
RED SOX      40 32 336 306  0.012 36.414    7  0.613    7  0.076    9  0.055    7 0.5174  0.466 -0.013  0.123 -0.085
RAYS         39 36 360 341  0.052 39.155    9  0.565    9  0.052    7  0.067    9 0.5112  0.577  0.101  0.033 -0.094
ORIOLES      35 36 320 380  0.088 38.237   11  0.531   11  0.034   22 -0.058   13 0.5070  0.739  0.135 -0.251 -0.219
BLUE JAYS    35 36 306 325  0.035 36.680   15  0.499   15  0.009   15 -0.010   16 0.5023  0.425 -0.114  0.094 -0.001

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    189 176 0.518    1  0.084
AL EAST    188 170 0.525    2  0.083
AL CENTRAL 172 179 0.490    3  0.040
NL WEST    195 171 0.533    4  0.030
NL CENTRAL 171 187 0.478    5 -0.073
NL EAST    161 193 0.455    6 -0.167

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.096 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jun 22 05:30:19 2017
games through: Wed Jun 21 2017

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