Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       100  56 909 679 -0.007 76.680    1  0.265    1  0.267    1  0.280    1 0.5352    2  0.692    2  0.433    9  0.127   13  0.083
ORIOLES       97  59 793 666  0.012 78.012    2  0.258    2  0.243    5  0.163    2 0.5301    3  0.671    3  0.295   14  0.031   24 -0.184
DODGERS       96  59 869 671 -0.005 76.320    3  0.253    3  0.226    2  0.262    3 0.5292    1  0.825    1  0.551   18 -0.027   30 -0.314
RAYS          95  62 823 634 -0.002 77.599    4  0.242    4  0.203    3  0.235    4 0.5254   11  0.580    4  0.280    3  0.191   19 -0.040
BLUE JAYS     87  69 716 640  0.013 78.177    5  0.115    5  0.122    6  0.127    7 0.5151   22  0.505    8  0.101    4  0.152   27 -0.244
PHILLIES      87  69 768 688  0.007 77.817    6  0.102    6  0.116   11  0.096    6 0.5159   15  0.535   10  0.097   11  0.094   16  0.021
BREWERS       88  68 707 628 -0.007 76.990    7  0.102    7  0.116   13  0.092    5 0.5163   28  0.329   19 -0.087    1  0.271   12  0.098
RANGERS       88  68 865 694 -0.022 75.886    8  0.089    8  0.108    4  0.179    8 0.5125   10  0.582    5  0.225    7  0.133    2  0.233
ASTROS        86  71 806 687 -0.019 76.637    9  0.042    9  0.077    8  0.106    9 0.5082    4  0.642    6  0.210   16  0.003   20 -0.094
MARINERS      84  72 736 641 -0.019 76.156   10  0.030   10  0.061    7  0.116   12 0.5063   20  0.516    9  0.101    8  0.131   23 -0.182
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DIAMONDBACKS  82  74 725 743  0.012 78.264   11  0.026   11  0.058   14  0.004   10 0.5076    7  0.621   12  0.088   22 -0.079   21 -0.097
TWINS         83  73 737 635 -0.022 76.032   12  0.019   13  0.045   12  0.094   14 0.5045   26  0.403   16 -0.022    2  0.210   14  0.080
MARLINS       81  75 649 700  0.015 78.550   13  0.019   12  0.047   18 -0.044   11 0.5068   30  0.313   25 -0.237    5  0.148    6  0.130
CUBS          82  74 792 691 -0.020 76.148   14  0.015   14  0.035   10  0.100   13 0.5059   14  0.545    7  0.111   12  0.089   10  0.106
YANKEES       79  77 653 673  0.028 79.332   15  0.013   15  0.034   15  0.002   15 0.5039   27  0.373   23 -0.140    6  0.145   18 -0.023
REDS          80  77 741 789  0.002 78.252   16  0.008   16  0.019   19 -0.045   16 0.5035    8  0.590   14  0.008   23 -0.099    8  0.115
PADRES        77  80 732 642  0.009 78.450   17  0.001   18 -0.010    9  0.105   17 0.4997   18  0.522   11  0.096   10  0.115   25 -0.215
GIANTS        78  79 666 698  0.001 78.200   18 -0.001   17 -0.006   21 -0.058   18 0.4997   17  0.526   18 -0.065   20 -0.052   29 -0.279
RED SOX       76  80 754 754  0.018 78.668   19 -0.002   19 -0.011   16  0.001   19 0.4981    9  0.588   13  0.053   19 -0.050    5  0.158
PIRATES       74  82 672 767  0.007 78.156   20 -0.016   20 -0.045   23 -0.118   20 0.4951   23  0.478   24 -0.169   21 -0.068   11  0.102
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS     74  83 642 665 -0.023 76.718   21 -0.034   21 -0.072   20 -0.053   22 0.4893   25  0.444   21 -0.133   15  0.027   26 -0.243
TIGERS        73  83 622 725 -0.016 76.772   22 -0.041   22 -0.075   24 -0.128   23 0.4892   29  0.313   30 -0.320   13  0.065    4  0.170
METS          71  85 687 707  0.012 78.366   23 -0.042   23 -0.076   17 -0.026   21 0.4919   16  0.529   17 -0.030   17 -0.022   22 -0.144
ANGELS        70  87 715 810  0.008 78.775   24 -0.075   24 -0.098   22 -0.099   25 0.4862    5  0.640   15  0.002   27 -0.200   17 -0.023
NATIONALS     69  88 676 819  0.011 78.989   25 -0.093   25 -0.108   26 -0.153   24 0.4873   12  0.550   22 -0.137   25 -0.169    9  0.109
CARDINALS     68  88 692 794  0.005 78.087   26 -0.111   26 -0.118   25 -0.131   26 0.4859   13  0.546   20 -0.119   24 -0.143    7  0.122
WHITE SOX     60  96 630 811 -0.017 76.894   27 -0.260   27 -0.235   27 -0.233   28 0.4688   19  0.519   26 -0.246   28 -0.221   15  0.047
ROCKIES       56  99 684 909  0.018 78.571   28 -0.267   28 -0.257   28 -0.242   27 0.4689   24  0.473   28 -0.297   26 -0.187    1  0.555
ROYALS        54 102 651 826 -0.009 77.393   29 -0.288   29 -0.304   29 -0.243   29 0.4603   21  0.509   27 -0.265   29 -0.221    3  0.215
ATHLETICS     48 108 565 891  0.020 79.412   30 -0.369   30 -0.362   30 -0.392   30 0.4534    6  0.629   29 -0.301   30 -0.482   28 -0.258
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS       96  59 869 671 -0.005 76.320    3  0.253    3  0.226    2  0.262    3 0.5292    1  0.825    1  0.551   18 -0.027   30 -0.314
DIAMONDBACKS  82  74 725 743  0.012 78.264   11  0.026   11  0.058   14  0.004   10 0.5076    7  0.621   12  0.088   22 -0.079   21 -0.097
PADRES        77  80 732 642  0.009 78.450   17  0.001   18 -0.010    9  0.105   17 0.4997   18  0.522   11  0.096   10  0.115   25 -0.215
GIANTS        78  79 666 698  0.001 78.200   18 -0.001   17 -0.006   21 -0.058   18 0.4997   17  0.526   18 -0.065   20 -0.052   29 -0.279
ROCKIES       56  99 684 909  0.018 78.571   28 -0.267   28 -0.257   28 -0.242   27 0.4689   24  0.473   28 -0.297   26 -0.187    1  0.555

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       88  68 707 628 -0.007 76.990    7  0.102    7  0.116   13  0.092    5 0.5163   28  0.329   19 -0.087    1  0.271   12  0.098
CUBS          82  74 792 691 -0.020 76.148   14  0.015   14  0.035   10  0.100   13 0.5059   14  0.545    7  0.111   12  0.089   10  0.106
REDS          80  77 741 789  0.002 78.252   16  0.008   16  0.019   19 -0.045   16 0.5035    8  0.590   14  0.008   23 -0.099    8  0.115
PIRATES       74  82 672 767  0.007 78.156   20 -0.016   20 -0.045   23 -0.118   20 0.4951   23  0.478   24 -0.169   21 -0.068   11  0.102
CARDINALS     68  88 692 794  0.005 78.087   26 -0.111   26 -0.118   25 -0.131   26 0.4859   13  0.546   20 -0.119   24 -0.143    7  0.122

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       100  56 909 679 -0.007 76.680    1  0.265    1  0.267    1  0.280    1 0.5352    2  0.692    2  0.433    9  0.127   13  0.083
PHILLIES      87  69 768 688  0.007 77.817    6  0.102    6  0.116   11  0.096    6 0.5159   15  0.535   10  0.097   11  0.094   16  0.021
MARLINS       81  75 649 700  0.015 78.550   13  0.019   12  0.047   18 -0.044   11 0.5068   30  0.313   25 -0.237    5  0.148    6  0.130
METS          71  85 687 707  0.012 78.366   23 -0.042   23 -0.076   17 -0.026   21 0.4919   16  0.529   17 -0.030   17 -0.022   22 -0.144
NATIONALS     69  88 676 819  0.011 78.989   25 -0.093   25 -0.108   26 -0.153   24 0.4873   12  0.550   22 -0.137   25 -0.169    9  0.109

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS       88  68 865 694 -0.022 75.886    8  0.089    8  0.108    4  0.179    8 0.5125   10  0.582    5  0.225    7  0.133    2  0.233
ASTROS        86  71 806 687 -0.019 76.637    9  0.042    9  0.077    8  0.106    9 0.5082    4  0.642    6  0.210   16  0.003   20 -0.094
MARINERS      84  72 736 641 -0.019 76.156   10  0.030   10  0.061    7  0.116   12 0.5063   20  0.516    9  0.101    8  0.131   23 -0.182
ANGELS        70  87 715 810  0.008 78.775   24 -0.075   24 -0.098   22 -0.099   25 0.4862    5  0.640   15  0.002   27 -0.200   17 -0.023
ATHLETICS     48 108 565 891  0.020 79.412   30 -0.369   30 -0.362   30 -0.392   30 0.4534    6  0.629   29 -0.301   30 -0.482   28 -0.258

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         83  73 737 635 -0.022 76.032   12  0.019   13  0.045   12  0.094   14 0.5045   26  0.403   16 -0.022    2  0.210   14  0.080
GUARDIANS     74  83 642 665 -0.023 76.718   21 -0.034   21 -0.072   20 -0.053   22 0.4893   25  0.444   21 -0.133   15  0.027   26 -0.243
TIGERS        73  83 622 725 -0.016 76.772   22 -0.041   22 -0.075   24 -0.128   23 0.4892   29  0.313   30 -0.320   13  0.065    4  0.170
WHITE SOX     60  96 630 811 -0.017 76.894   27 -0.260   27 -0.235   27 -0.233   28 0.4688   19  0.519   26 -0.246   28 -0.221   15  0.047
ROYALS        54 102 651 826 -0.009 77.393   29 -0.288   29 -0.304   29 -0.243   29 0.4603   21  0.509   27 -0.265   29 -0.221    3  0.215

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       97  59 793 666  0.012 78.012    2  0.258    2  0.243    5  0.163    2 0.5301    3  0.671    3  0.295   14  0.031   24 -0.184
RAYS          95  62 823 634 -0.002 77.599    4  0.242    4  0.203    3  0.235    4 0.5254   11  0.580    4  0.280    3  0.191   19 -0.040
BLUE JAYS     87  69 716 640  0.013 78.177    5  0.115    5  0.122    6  0.127    7 0.5151   22  0.505    8  0.101    4  0.152   27 -0.244
YANKEES       79  77 653 673  0.028 79.332   15  0.013   15  0.034   15  0.002   15 0.5039   27  0.373   23 -0.140    6  0.145   18 -0.023
RED SOX       76  80 754 754  0.018 78.668   19 -0.002   19 -0.011   16  0.001   19 0.4981    9  0.588   13  0.053   19 -0.050    5  0.158

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    434 347 0.556    1  0.127
NL EAST    408 373 0.522    2  0.036
NL WEST    389 391 0.499    3  0.017
AL WEST    376 406 0.481    4 -0.019
NL CENTRAL 392 389 0.502    5 -0.025
AL CENTRAL 344 437 0.440    6 -0.135

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.038 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Sep 26 05:30:13 2023
games through: Mon Sep 25 2023

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.