Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       112  68 974 774  0.027 92.688    1  0.984    1  0.234    3  0.217    1 0.5326  0.776  0.452 -0.017 -0.294
DODGERS      114  63 852 633 -0.032 86.842    2  0.983    2  0.232    4  0.212    2 0.5323  0.379  0.071  0.353 -0.110
INDIANS      104  63 836 585 -0.008 83.529    3  0.968    3  0.206    1  0.258    3 0.5298  0.320  0.068  0.449  0.000
YANKEES       98  77 909 702  0.032 90.440    4  0.738    5  0.128    2  0.219    5 0.5190  0.496  0.181  0.258  0.049
RED SOX       94  72 803 692  0.029 85.695    5  0.728    4  0.133    5  0.140    4 0.5191  0.412  0.027  0.252  0.090
NATIONALS     99  68 839 689 -0.073 79.474    6  0.615    6  0.109    7  0.091    6 0.5145  0.467  0.027  0.155  0.074
DIAMONDBACKS  94  72 834 687 -0.029 81.771    7  0.562    7  0.093    6  0.128    7 0.5142  0.397  0.002  0.254  0.300
CUBS          96  76 847 743 -0.025 85.169    8  0.522    8  0.082    8  0.064    8 0.5108  0.486  0.016  0.111  0.154
TWINS         85  78 819 796  0.013 83.197    9  0.465    9  0.044    9  0.046    9 0.5072  0.615  0.119 -0.027  0.183
ROCKIES       87  76 832 768 -0.025 80.714   10  0.461   10  0.040   10  0.040   10 0.5062  0.475 -0.017  0.097  0.464
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS       86  76 732 697 -0.029 80.066   11  0.456   11  0.032   12  0.022   11 0.5039  0.424 -0.080  0.125  0.071
RAYS          80  82 694 704  0.040 84.558   12  0.449   12  0.016   14  0.013   12 0.5027  0.467 -0.051  0.077 -0.177
ANGELS        80  82 710 709  0.028 83.762   13  0.446   13  0.008   13  0.014   13 0.5019  0.434 -0.079  0.107 -0.077
ROYALS        80  82 702 791  0.029 83.983   14  0.445   14  0.007   20 -0.075   14 0.5009  0.567 -0.047 -0.102 -0.067
CARDINALS     83  79 761 705 -0.033 79.783   15  0.443   15 -0.002   11  0.035   15 0.4997  0.607  0.100 -0.030 -0.219
MARINERS      78  84 750 772  0.026 83.668   16  0.438   16 -0.016   16 -0.012   16 0.4985  0.604  0.050 -0.074 -0.131
RANGERS       78  84 799 816  0.017 83.094   17  0.437   17 -0.020   15 -0.000   17 0.4982  0.523 -0.014  0.014  0.333
BLUE JAYS     76  86 693 784  0.046 85.061   18  0.435   18 -0.022   17 -0.049   18 0.4969  0.511 -0.074 -0.024 -0.030
ORIOLES       75  87 743 841  0.053 85.544   19  0.432   19 -0.029   19 -0.068   19 0.4960  0.618  0.008 -0.143  0.069
ATHLETICS     75  87 739 826  0.030 84.034   20  0.423   20 -0.044   18 -0.059   20 0.4941  0.530 -0.066 -0.051  0.169
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MARLINS       77  85 778 822 -0.048 78.975   21  0.377   21 -0.076   22 -0.089   22 0.4882  0.798  0.168 -0.345 -0.295
PIRATES       75  87 668 731 -0.019 80.902   22  0.376   22 -0.077   21 -0.086   21 0.4882  0.435 -0.178  0.006 -0.102
PADRES        71  91 604 816  0.001 82.363   23  0.276   23 -0.107   30 -0.204   23 0.4845  0.554 -0.189 -0.219 -0.283
WHITE SOX     67  95 706 820  0.035 84.422   24  0.203   24 -0.125   23 -0.101   24 0.4834  0.512 -0.124 -0.077  0.097
BRAVES        72  90 732 821 -0.046 79.241   25  0.198   25 -0.126   26 -0.135   25 0.4812  0.654 -0.024 -0.246 -0.107
REDS          68  94 753 869 -0.004 81.874   26  0.136   26 -0.141   24 -0.116   26 0.4795  0.738  0.079 -0.311  0.010
METS          70  92 735 863 -0.035 79.939   27  0.125   27 -0.143   28 -0.152   27 0.4788  0.807  0.114 -0.418 -0.284
TIGERS        64  98 735 894  0.036 84.527   28  0.075   28 -0.156   27 -0.147   28 0.4788  0.553 -0.132 -0.162  0.326
PHILLIES      66  96 690 782 -0.040 79.621   29  0.001   30 -0.186   25 -0.128   30 0.4734  0.441 -0.216 -0.041  0.061
GIANTS        64  98 639 776 -0.006 81.853   30  0.000   29 -0.185   29 -0.168   29 0.4746  0.537 -0.169 -0.168 -0.273

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      114  63 852 633 -0.032 86.842    2  0.983    2  0.232    4  0.212    2 0.5323  0.379  0.071  0.353 -0.110
DIAMONDBACKS  94  72 834 687 -0.029 81.771    7  0.562    7  0.093    6  0.128    7 0.5142  0.397  0.002  0.254  0.300
ROCKIES       87  76 832 768 -0.025 80.714   10  0.461   10  0.040   10  0.040   10 0.5062  0.475 -0.017  0.097  0.464
PADRES        71  91 604 816  0.001 82.363   23  0.276   23 -0.107   30 -0.204   23 0.4845  0.554 -0.189 -0.219 -0.283
GIANTS        64  98 639 776 -0.006 81.853   30  0.000   29 -0.185   29 -0.168   29 0.4746  0.537 -0.169 -0.168 -0.273

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS          96  76 847 743 -0.025 85.169    8  0.522    8  0.082    8  0.064    8 0.5108  0.486  0.016  0.111  0.154
BREWERS       86  76 732 697 -0.029 80.066   11  0.456   11  0.032   12  0.022   11 0.5039  0.424 -0.080  0.125  0.071
CARDINALS     83  79 761 705 -0.033 79.783   15  0.443   15 -0.002   11  0.035   15 0.4997  0.607  0.100 -0.030 -0.219
PIRATES       75  87 668 731 -0.019 80.902   22  0.376   22 -0.077   21 -0.086   21 0.4882  0.435 -0.178  0.006 -0.102
REDS          68  94 753 869 -0.004 81.874   26  0.136   26 -0.141   24 -0.116   26 0.4795  0.738  0.079 -0.311  0.010

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS     99  68 839 689 -0.073 79.474    6  0.615    6  0.109    7  0.091    6 0.5145  0.467  0.027  0.155  0.074
MARLINS       77  85 778 822 -0.048 78.975   21  0.377   21 -0.076   22 -0.089   22 0.4882  0.798  0.168 -0.345 -0.295
BRAVES        72  90 732 821 -0.046 79.241   25  0.198   25 -0.126   26 -0.135   25 0.4812  0.654 -0.024 -0.246 -0.107
METS          70  92 735 863 -0.035 79.939   27  0.125   27 -0.143   28 -0.152   27 0.4788  0.807  0.114 -0.418 -0.284
PHILLIES      66  96 690 782 -0.040 79.621   29  0.001   30 -0.186   25 -0.128   30 0.4734  0.441 -0.216 -0.041  0.061

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       112  68 974 774  0.027 92.688    1  0.984    1  0.234    3  0.217    1 0.5326  0.776  0.452 -0.017 -0.294
ANGELS        80  82 710 709  0.028 83.762   13  0.446   13  0.008   13  0.014   13 0.5019  0.434 -0.079  0.107 -0.077
MARINERS      78  84 750 772  0.026 83.668   16  0.438   16 -0.016   16 -0.012   16 0.4985  0.604  0.050 -0.074 -0.131
RANGERS       78  84 799 816  0.017 83.094   17  0.437   17 -0.020   15 -0.000   17 0.4982  0.523 -0.014  0.014  0.333
ATHLETICS     75  87 739 826  0.030 84.034   20  0.423   20 -0.044   18 -0.059   20 0.4941  0.530 -0.066 -0.051  0.169

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      104  63 836 585 -0.008 83.529    3  0.968    3  0.206    1  0.258    3 0.5298  0.320  0.068  0.449  0.000
TWINS         85  78 819 796  0.013 83.197    9  0.465    9  0.044    9  0.046    9 0.5072  0.615  0.119 -0.027  0.183
ROYALS        80  82 702 791  0.029 83.983   14  0.445   14  0.007   20 -0.075   14 0.5009  0.567 -0.047 -0.102 -0.067
WHITE SOX     67  95 706 820  0.035 84.422   24  0.203   24 -0.125   23 -0.101   24 0.4834  0.512 -0.124 -0.077  0.097
TIGERS        64  98 735 894  0.036 84.527   28  0.075   28 -0.156   27 -0.147   28 0.4788  0.553 -0.132 -0.162  0.326

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES       98  77 909 702  0.032 90.440    4  0.738    5  0.128    2  0.219    5 0.5190  0.496  0.181  0.258  0.049
RED SOX       94  72 803 692  0.029 85.695    5  0.728    4  0.133    5  0.140    4 0.5191  0.412  0.027  0.252  0.090
RAYS          80  82 694 704  0.040 84.558   12  0.449   12  0.016   14  0.013   12 0.5027  0.467 -0.051  0.077 -0.177
BLUE JAYS     76  86 693 784  0.046 85.061   18  0.435   18 -0.022   17 -0.049   18 0.4969  0.511 -0.074 -0.024 -0.030
ORIOLES       75  87 743 841  0.053 85.544   19  0.432   19 -0.029   19 -0.068   19 0.4960  0.618  0.008 -0.143  0.069

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    423 404 0.511    1  0.066
AL WEST    423 405 0.511    2  0.041
NL WEST    430 400 0.518    3  0.002
AL CENTRAL 400 416 0.490    4 -0.005
NL CENTRAL 408 412 0.498    5 -0.020
NL EAST    384 431 0.471    6 -0.107

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.094 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Nov  2 05:30:32 2017
games through: Wed Nov  1 2017

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