Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      100  66 864 707  0.006 81.958    1  0.202    1  0.187    1  0.183    1 0.5267    3  0.672    2  0.365   16  0.001   27 -0.155
PADRES        97  71 790 695  0.017 83.738    2  0.159    2  0.149    6  0.121    2 0.5213   16  0.496    9  0.137    9  0.106   18 -0.033
PHILLIES      96  70 796 694  0.002 81.730    3  0.146    3  0.140    4  0.131    3 0.5198   14  0.498    8  0.149    8  0.113   12  0.054
YANKEES       96  69 826 679 -0.012 80.300    4  0.140    4  0.137    2  0.163    4 0.5186    7  0.561    4  0.238   11  0.087   11  0.062
BREWERS       94  71 788 656  0.005 81.426    5  0.120    5  0.127    3  0.148    5 0.5182   15  0.496    7  0.164    5  0.132   21 -0.078
METS          94  75 806 720  0.013 83.962    6  0.084    6  0.109    8  0.097    6 0.5154    5  0.603    5  0.212   17 -0.018   25 -0.122
GUARDIANS     93  71 715 627 -0.024 79.114    7  0.071    7  0.101   12  0.074    8 0.5129   30  0.247   23 -0.123    1  0.270    5  0.207
DIAMONDBACKS  89  73 886 788  0.012 80.439    8  0.064    8  0.095    7  0.105    7 0.5142    1  0.751    1  0.366   24 -0.155    8  0.122
ORIOLES       91  73 784 700 -0.011 79.956    9  0.055    9  0.089   10  0.086   10 0.5119    6  0.595    6  0.194   18 -0.022   22 -0.081
BRAVES        89  75 708 616  0.005 80.953   10  0.043   10  0.079    5  0.124    9 0.5119   24  0.352   16  0.014    3  0.234   23 -0.085
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS        90  77 696 652 -0.018 81.030   11  0.025   11  0.056   15  0.025   11 0.5065   26  0.330   21 -0.103    4  0.154   15  0.013
ASTROS        88  75 743 657 -0.030 78.238   12  0.024   12  0.050   11  0.077   12 0.5061   20  0.451   13  0.053   10  0.102   14  0.047
ROYALS        89  78 749 656 -0.018 80.886   13  0.023   13  0.046    9  0.096   13 0.5055   28  0.299   17 -0.058    2  0.250    3  0.258
CUBS          83  79 736 669  0.005 80.056   14  0.017   15  0.026   13  0.062   15 0.5041    2  0.735    3  0.307   26 -0.183   30 -0.555
CARDINALS     83  79 670 716  0.016 80.919   15  0.017   14  0.031   20 -0.024   14 0.5046   21  0.436   18 -0.061   14  0.014   16 -0.027
MARINERS      85  77 676 607 -0.028 77.913   16  0.015   16  0.024   14  0.051   16 0.5025   17  0.493   11  0.064   12  0.038   29 -0.467
GIANTS        80  82 693 699  0.016 80.846   17  0.011   17  0.000   16  0.015   17 0.5011   18  0.491   15  0.026   15  0.004   26 -0.150
TWINS         82  80 742 735 -0.016 78.755   18  0.011   18 -0.001   19 -0.016   19 0.4987    9  0.532   14  0.032   21 -0.064    7  0.146
RED SOX       81  81 751 747 -0.003 79.644   19  0.011   19 -0.003   18 -0.003   18 0.4993    8  0.543   12  0.055   20 -0.061   10  0.090
RAYS          80  82 604 663 -0.001 79.871   20  0.008   20 -0.013   23 -0.069   20 0.4977   29  0.250   28 -0.263    6  0.125   17 -0.030
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDS          77  85 699 694  0.014 80.709   21  0.004   21 -0.033   17 -0.001   21 0.4960   25  0.339   22 -0.122    7  0.120    4  0.232
PIRATES       76  86 665 739  0.018 81.105   22  0.001   22 -0.041   21 -0.061   22 0.4946   22  0.384   25 -0.144   13  0.022    6  0.149
RANGERS       79  84 686 739 -0.022 79.029   23  0.001   23 -0.042   24 -0.073   23 0.4929    4  0.639   10  0.077   28 -0.223   28 -0.291
BLUE JAYS     74  88 671 743  0.004 80.198   24 -0.016   24 -0.073   22 -0.069   24 0.4895   19  0.455   20 -0.090   19 -0.047    9  0.112
NATIONALS     71  91 660 764  0.018 81.186   25 -0.044   25 -0.096   25 -0.111   25 0.4871   11  0.515   19 -0.078   23 -0.144   20 -0.060
ATHLETICS     69  93 643 764 -0.010 79.385   26 -0.123   26 -0.138   26 -0.153   26 0.4799   12  0.501   24 -0.132   25 -0.173   19 -0.043
MARLINS       62 100 637 841  0.024 81.620   27 -0.188   27 -0.191   28 -0.209   27 0.4740   27  0.315   29 -0.350   22 -0.068    1  0.417
ROCKIES       61 101 682 929  0.037 82.553   28 -0.190   28 -0.194   29 -0.256   28 0.4739   10  0.531   27 -0.208   30 -0.303    2  0.330
ANGELS        63  99 635 797 -0.007 79.589   29 -0.194   29 -0.201   27 -0.185   29 0.4714   13  0.500   26 -0.166   27 -0.204   13  0.048
WHITE SOX     41 122 508 816  0.011 81.475   30 -0.497   30 -0.445   30 -0.360   30 0.4398   23  0.354   30 -0.469   29 -0.251   24 -0.111
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      100  66 864 707  0.006 81.958    1  0.202    1  0.187    1  0.183    1 0.5267    3  0.672    2  0.365   16  0.001   27 -0.155
PADRES        97  71 790 695  0.017 83.738    2  0.159    2  0.149    6  0.121    2 0.5213   16  0.496    9  0.137    9  0.106   18 -0.033
DIAMONDBACKS  89  73 886 788  0.012 80.439    8  0.064    8  0.095    7  0.105    7 0.5142    1  0.751    1  0.366   24 -0.155    8  0.122
GIANTS        80  82 693 699  0.016 80.846   17  0.011   17  0.000   16  0.015   17 0.5011   18  0.491   15  0.026   15  0.004   26 -0.150
ROCKIES       61 101 682 929  0.037 82.553   28 -0.190   28 -0.194   29 -0.256   28 0.4739   10  0.531   27 -0.208   30 -0.303    2  0.330

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       94  71 788 656  0.005 81.426    5  0.120    5  0.127    3  0.148    5 0.5182   15  0.496    7  0.164    5  0.132   21 -0.078
CUBS          83  79 736 669  0.005 80.056   14  0.017   15  0.026   13  0.062   15 0.5041    2  0.735    3  0.307   26 -0.183   30 -0.555
CARDINALS     83  79 670 716  0.016 80.919   15  0.017   14  0.031   20 -0.024   14 0.5046   21  0.436   18 -0.061   14  0.014   16 -0.027
REDS          77  85 699 694  0.014 80.709   21  0.004   21 -0.033   17 -0.001   21 0.4960   25  0.339   22 -0.122    7  0.120    4  0.232
PIRATES       76  86 665 739  0.018 81.105   22  0.001   22 -0.041   21 -0.061   22 0.4946   22  0.384   25 -0.144   13  0.022    6  0.149

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      96  70 796 694  0.002 81.730    3  0.146    3  0.140    4  0.131    3 0.5198   14  0.498    8  0.149    8  0.113   12  0.054
METS          94  75 806 720  0.013 83.962    6  0.084    6  0.109    8  0.097    6 0.5154    5  0.603    5  0.212   17 -0.018   25 -0.122
BRAVES        89  75 708 616  0.005 80.953   10  0.043   10  0.079    5  0.124    9 0.5119   24  0.352   16  0.014    3  0.234   23 -0.085
NATIONALS     71  91 660 764  0.018 81.186   25 -0.044   25 -0.096   25 -0.111   25 0.4871   11  0.515   19 -0.078   23 -0.144   20 -0.060
MARLINS       62 100 637 841  0.024 81.620   27 -0.188   27 -0.191   28 -0.209   27 0.4740   27  0.315   29 -0.350   22 -0.068    1  0.417

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS        88  75 743 657 -0.030 78.238   12  0.024   12  0.050   11  0.077   12 0.5061   20  0.451   13  0.053   10  0.102   14  0.047
MARINERS      85  77 676 607 -0.028 77.913   16  0.015   16  0.024   14  0.051   16 0.5025   17  0.493   11  0.064   12  0.038   29 -0.467
RANGERS       79  84 686 739 -0.022 79.029   23  0.001   23 -0.042   24 -0.073   23 0.4929    4  0.639   10  0.077   28 -0.223   28 -0.291
ATHLETICS     69  93 643 764 -0.010 79.385   26 -0.123   26 -0.138   26 -0.153   26 0.4799   12  0.501   24 -0.132   25 -0.173   19 -0.043
ANGELS        63  99 635 797 -0.007 79.589   29 -0.194   29 -0.201   27 -0.185   29 0.4714   13  0.500   26 -0.166   27 -0.204   13  0.048

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS     93  71 715 627 -0.024 79.114    7  0.071    7  0.101   12  0.074    8 0.5129   30  0.247   23 -0.123    1  0.270    5  0.207
TIGERS        90  77 696 652 -0.018 81.030   11  0.025   11  0.056   15  0.025   11 0.5065   26  0.330   21 -0.103    4  0.154   15  0.013
ROYALS        89  78 749 656 -0.018 80.886   13  0.023   13  0.046    9  0.096   13 0.5055   28  0.299   17 -0.058    2  0.250    3  0.258
TWINS         82  80 742 735 -0.016 78.755   18  0.011   18 -0.001   19 -0.016   19 0.4987    9  0.532   14  0.032   21 -0.064    7  0.146
WHITE SOX     41 122 508 816  0.011 81.475   30 -0.497   30 -0.445   30 -0.360   30 0.4398   23  0.354   30 -0.469   29 -0.251   24 -0.111

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES       96  69 826 679 -0.012 80.300    4  0.140    4  0.137    2  0.163    4 0.5186    7  0.561    4  0.238   11  0.087   11  0.062
ORIOLES       91  73 784 700 -0.011 79.956    9  0.055    9  0.089   10  0.086   10 0.5119    6  0.595    6  0.194   18 -0.022   22 -0.081
RED SOX       81  81 751 747 -0.003 79.644   19  0.011   19 -0.003   18 -0.003   18 0.4993    8  0.543   12  0.055   20 -0.061   10  0.090
RAYS          80  82 604 663 -0.001 79.871   20  0.008   20 -0.013   23 -0.069   20 0.4977   29  0.250   28 -0.263    6  0.125   17 -0.030
BLUE JAYS     74  88 671 743  0.004 80.198   24 -0.016   24 -0.073   22 -0.069   24 0.4895   19  0.455   20 -0.090   19 -0.047    9  0.112

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    427 393 0.521    1  0.044
NL CENTRAL 413 400 0.508    2  0.032
AL EAST    422 393 0.518    3  0.028
NL EAST    412 411 0.501    4  0.009
AL CENTRAL 395 428 0.480    5 -0.044
AL WEST    384 428 0.473    6 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.039 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Oct 10 05:30:11 2024
games through: Wed Oct  9 2024

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