Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 33 495 412 -0.034 42.543    1  0.178    1  0.160    4  0.114    1 0.5273   10  0.626    4  0.261   18 -0.034    4  0.310
CUBS         53 35 475 358  0.013 43.633    2  0.169    2  0.148    1  0.189    2 0.5268   12  0.620    2  0.330   15  0.047   12  0.021
TIGERS       55 34 448 348 -0.028 42.743    3  0.167    3  0.148    2  0.154    3 0.5258   11  0.621    3  0.297   16  0.012   25 -0.177
ASTROS       53 35 385 320 -0.014 42.829    4  0.141    4  0.132    5  0.107    4 0.5237   16  0.424   13  0.069    7  0.145   22 -0.117
PHILLIES     51 37 405 356 -0.023 42.495    5  0.086    6  0.097    8  0.081    5 0.5172   28  0.192   21 -0.147    1  0.310    2  0.473
BLUE JAYS    50 38 405 395  0.011 43.767    6  0.083    5  0.098   12  0.038    6 0.5171   18  0.391   17 -0.028   10  0.104    5  0.305
METS         51 38 386 346 -0.015 43.290    7  0.077    7  0.093   10  0.059    7 0.5148   19  0.351   18 -0.042    6  0.160   24 -0.161
BREWERS      49 39 415 358  0.000 43.306    8  0.058    8  0.077    7  0.090    8 0.5118    2  0.753    1  0.363   25 -0.184   30 -0.543
PADRES       47 40 355 343  0.012 43.324    9  0.042    9  0.062   14  0.027   10 0.5110   23  0.289   20 -0.125    5  0.179   17 -0.047
CARDINALS    47 42 406 382  0.037 45.199   10  0.038   10  0.059    9  0.062   11 0.5105    7  0.635    8  0.218   21 -0.095   23 -0.141
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      48 40 450 351 -0.016 42.706   11  0.035   11  0.054    3  0.149    9 0.5113   15  0.528   10  0.203   12  0.094   13 -0.004
RAYS         48 40 419 351 -0.016 42.745   12  0.031   12  0.053    6  0.092   12 0.5088   13  0.571   11  0.188   17 -0.003   20 -0.091
REDS         46 42 413 375  0.010 43.727   13  0.020   13  0.037   11  0.058   14 0.5051    9  0.627    9  0.207   20 -0.091   21 -0.115
MARINERS     46 42 400 380 -0.009 43.086   14  0.013   14  0.025   15  0.022   13 0.5053    8  0.628   12  0.172   22 -0.128   26 -0.317
GIANTS       47 42 368 347 -0.025 43.034   15  0.012   15  0.025   17  0.013   15 0.5039   26  0.265   23 -0.158    4  0.185   19 -0.065
RED SOX      44 45 432 408  0.007 44.140   16 -0.001   16 -0.004   13  0.033   17 0.4982    5  0.685    6  0.238   24 -0.172   11  0.051
ANGELS       43 44 374 421  0.004 43.175   17 -0.004   17 -0.006   23 -0.072   16 0.4997   14  0.561   15  0.014   23 -0.159   15 -0.022
DIAMONDBACKS 43 45 454 456 -0.008 43.160   18 -0.011   18 -0.020   18  0.006   19 0.4959    3  0.727    5  0.253   26 -0.242    9  0.107
RANGERS      43 45 332 307 -0.019 42.751   19 -0.014   19 -0.025   16  0.017   21 0.4946   27  0.231   24 -0.182    3  0.216   27 -0.330
TWINS        42 46 363 380  0.002 43.542   20 -0.017   20 -0.030   20 -0.015   20 0.4956   20  0.350   19 -0.117   14  0.086    7  0.255
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       42 47 299 327  0.012 44.474   21 -0.019   22 -0.031   22 -0.056   22 0.4932   24  0.288   26 -0.208   11  0.097   28 -0.371
GUARDIANS    40 46 310 363  0.031 43.626   22 -0.020   21 -0.030   24 -0.073   18 0.4959   25  0.275   27 -0.237   13  0.090   14 -0.009
PIRATES      38 51 310 345  0.061 46.172   23 -0.046   24 -0.067   21 -0.027   23 0.4890   30  0.063   28 -0.352    2  0.298   10  0.084
MARLINS      39 47 365 436 -0.000 42.613   24 -0.049   23 -0.065   25 -0.112   24 0.4880    1  0.811    7  0.222   30 -0.447   29 -0.413
BRAVES       39 48 350 342 -0.013 42.522   25 -0.057   25 -0.077   19 -0.005   25 0.4871   22  0.292   22 -0.154    8  0.145   18 -0.053
ORIOLES      38 49 360 446  0.014 43.591   26 -0.060   26 -0.079   26 -0.128   26 0.4852   17  0.402   25 -0.184   19 -0.071    3  0.377
ATHLETICS    37 53 380 511  0.011 45.043   27 -0.114   27 -0.117   29 -0.164   27 0.4801    6  0.654   16  0.010   28 -0.339    6  0.285
NATIONALS    37 51 390 467 -0.025 42.817   28 -0.123   28 -0.123   28 -0.155   28 0.4790    4  0.701   14  0.066   29 -0.376   16 -0.034
WHITE SOX    29 59 297 386  0.014 44.129   29 -0.245   29 -0.226   27 -0.150   29 0.4609   29  0.116   29 -0.437    9  0.136    8  0.159
ROCKIES      20 68 312 536  0.031 44.960   30 -0.368   30 -0.366   30 -0.362   30 0.4366   21  0.332   30 -0.478   27 -0.245    1  0.582

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 33 495 412 -0.034 42.543    1  0.178    1  0.160    4  0.114    1 0.5273   10  0.626    4  0.261   18 -0.034    4  0.310
PADRES       47 40 355 343  0.012 43.324    9  0.042    9  0.062   14  0.027   10 0.5110   23  0.289   20 -0.125    5  0.179   17 -0.047
GIANTS       47 42 368 347 -0.025 43.034   15  0.012   15  0.025   17  0.013   15 0.5039   26  0.265   23 -0.158    4  0.185   19 -0.065
DIAMONDBACKS 43 45 454 456 -0.008 43.160   18 -0.011   18 -0.020   18  0.006   19 0.4959    3  0.727    5  0.253   26 -0.242    9  0.107
ROCKIES      20 68 312 536  0.031 44.960   30 -0.368   30 -0.366   30 -0.362   30 0.4366   21  0.332   30 -0.478   27 -0.245    1  0.582

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         53 35 475 358  0.013 43.633    2  0.169    2  0.148    1  0.189    2 0.5268   12  0.620    2  0.330   15  0.047   12  0.021
BREWERS      49 39 415 358  0.000 43.306    8  0.058    8  0.077    7  0.090    8 0.5118    2  0.753    1  0.363   25 -0.184   30 -0.543
CARDINALS    47 42 406 382  0.037 45.199   10  0.038   10  0.059    9  0.062   11 0.5105    7  0.635    8  0.218   21 -0.095   23 -0.141
REDS         46 42 413 375  0.010 43.727   13  0.020   13  0.037   11  0.058   14 0.5051    9  0.627    9  0.207   20 -0.091   21 -0.115
PIRATES      38 51 310 345  0.061 46.172   23 -0.046   24 -0.067   21 -0.027   23 0.4890   30  0.063   28 -0.352    2  0.298   10  0.084

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     51 37 405 356 -0.023 42.495    5  0.086    6  0.097    8  0.081    5 0.5172   28  0.192   21 -0.147    1  0.310    2  0.473
METS         51 38 386 346 -0.015 43.290    7  0.077    7  0.093   10  0.059    7 0.5148   19  0.351   18 -0.042    6  0.160   24 -0.161
MARLINS      39 47 365 436 -0.000 42.613   24 -0.049   23 -0.065   25 -0.112   24 0.4880    1  0.811    7  0.222   30 -0.447   29 -0.413
BRAVES       39 48 350 342 -0.013 42.522   25 -0.057   25 -0.077   19 -0.005   25 0.4871   22  0.292   22 -0.154    8  0.145   18 -0.053
NATIONALS    37 51 390 467 -0.025 42.817   28 -0.123   28 -0.123   28 -0.155   28 0.4790    4  0.701   14  0.066   29 -0.376   16 -0.034

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       53 35 385 320 -0.014 42.829    4  0.141    4  0.132    5  0.107    4 0.5237   16  0.424   13  0.069    7  0.145   22 -0.117
MARINERS     46 42 400 380 -0.009 43.086   14  0.013   14  0.025   15  0.022   13 0.5053    8  0.628   12  0.172   22 -0.128   26 -0.317
ANGELS       43 44 374 421  0.004 43.175   17 -0.004   17 -0.006   23 -0.072   16 0.4997   14  0.561   15  0.014   23 -0.159   15 -0.022
RANGERS      43 45 332 307 -0.019 42.751   19 -0.014   19 -0.025   16  0.017   21 0.4946   27  0.231   24 -0.182    3  0.216   27 -0.330
ATHLETICS    37 53 380 511  0.011 45.043   27 -0.114   27 -0.117   29 -0.164   27 0.4801    6  0.654   16  0.010   28 -0.339    6  0.285

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       55 34 448 348 -0.028 42.743    3  0.167    3  0.148    2  0.154    3 0.5258   11  0.621    3  0.297   16  0.012   25 -0.177
TWINS        42 46 363 380  0.002 43.542   20 -0.017   20 -0.030   20 -0.015   20 0.4956   20  0.350   19 -0.117   14  0.086    7  0.255
ROYALS       42 47 299 327  0.012 44.474   21 -0.019   22 -0.031   22 -0.056   22 0.4932   24  0.288   26 -0.208   11  0.097   28 -0.371
GUARDIANS    40 46 310 363  0.031 43.626   22 -0.020   21 -0.030   24 -0.073   18 0.4959   25  0.275   27 -0.237   13  0.090   14 -0.009
WHITE SOX    29 59 297 386  0.014 44.129   29 -0.245   29 -0.226   27 -0.150   29 0.4609   29  0.116   29 -0.437    9  0.136    8  0.159

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    50 38 405 395  0.011 43.767    6  0.083    5  0.098   12  0.038    6 0.5171   18  0.391   17 -0.028   10  0.104    5  0.305
YANKEES      48 40 450 351 -0.016 42.706   11  0.035   11  0.054    3  0.149    9 0.5113   15  0.528   10  0.203   12  0.094   13 -0.004
RAYS         48 40 419 351 -0.016 42.745   12  0.031   12  0.053    6  0.092   12 0.5088   13  0.571   11  0.188   17 -0.003   20 -0.091
RED SOX      44 45 432 408  0.007 44.140   16 -0.001   16 -0.004   13  0.033   17 0.4982    5  0.685    6  0.238   24 -0.172   11  0.051
ORIOLES      38 49 360 446  0.014 43.591   26 -0.060   26 -0.079   26 -0.128   26 0.4852   17  0.402   25 -0.184   19 -0.071    3  0.377

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 233 209 0.527    1  0.114
AL EAST    228 212 0.518    2  0.057
AL WEST    222 219 0.503    3 -0.027
NL EAST    217 221 0.495    4 -0.040
AL CENTRAL 208 232 0.473    5 -0.044
NL WEST    213 228 0.483    6 -0.059

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.081 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul  5 05:30:06 2025
games through: Fri Jul  4 2025

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