Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       38 20 295 209  0.002 28.378    1  0.221    1  0.221    2  0.226    1 0.5383   12  0.591    2  0.358   13  0.094   26 -0.257
METS         35 22 247 188  0.010 28.166    3  0.166    2  0.164    4  0.162    3 0.5275   26  0.191   21 -0.050    1  0.374   21 -0.138
YANKEES      35 21 310 200 -0.020 26.891    2  0.167    3  0.161    1  0.260    2 0.5292   15  0.466    5  0.278    5  0.243    7  0.213
PHILLIES     36 21 272 237 -0.057 26.742    5  0.154    4  0.156   10  0.066    5 0.5255   20  0.343   19 -0.023    9  0.156    4  0.267
CUBS         35 22 332 241 -0.014 27.531    4  0.155    5  0.152    3  0.197    6 0.5248    1  0.769    1  0.505   20 -0.110   19 -0.074
DODGERS      35 22 322 254 -0.015 27.560    6  0.152    6  0.151    5  0.158    4 0.5260   11  0.607    4  0.306   16  0.011    6  0.226
CARDINALS    32 25 270 235  0.030 28.725    7  0.099    7  0.102    6  0.114    7 0.5189    7  0.658    3  0.310   18 -0.082   24 -0.215
GIANTS       32 25 244 203  0.015 28.331    8  0.091    8  0.094    7  0.104    8 0.5169   23  0.260   22 -0.054    4  0.262   15 -0.013
PADRES       32 23 236 217 -0.038 26.291    9  0.090    9  0.093   13  0.028    9 0.5150   16  0.444   16  0.025   14  0.031   27 -0.283
ASTROS       31 26 235 208  0.024 28.623   10  0.074   10  0.075    8  0.092   10 0.5132   18  0.415   14  0.064   11  0.121   16 -0.019
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        31 25 228 196 -0.000 27.565   11  0.074   11  0.075    9  0.082   11 0.5131   21  0.319   20 -0.028    8  0.192   18 -0.073
GUARDIANS    30 26 224 244  0.020 28.155   12  0.053   12  0.061   22 -0.025   12 0.5126   10  0.615   10  0.129   22 -0.180   29 -0.332
MARINERS     30 26 256 250 -0.014 27.342   13  0.036   13  0.040   18  0.004   13 0.5073   13  0.543   13  0.091   19 -0.082   17 -0.020
ROYALS       30 28 193 200  0.017 29.073   14  0.031   14  0.035   19 -0.007   14 0.5037   29  0.074   27 -0.306    2  0.293   20 -0.089
BREWERS      30 28 252 247  0.008 28.818   15  0.026   15  0.028   15  0.022   16 0.5021    9  0.627    8  0.188   21 -0.143   30 -0.411
BLUE JAYS    29 28 232 242 -0.003 28.119   17  0.008   16  0.010   21 -0.016   15 0.5022   27  0.145   25 -0.263    6  0.231    2  0.391
RAYS         29 28 240 211 -0.014 27.777   16  0.009   17  0.004   11  0.046   17 0.4980   19  0.372   18 -0.019   12  0.111   14 -0.009
DIAMONDBACKS 27 30 286 294  0.050 29.275   18 -0.007   18 -0.009   14  0.028   18 0.4974    4  0.694    6  0.260   24 -0.205    8  0.147
REDS         29 29 270 234 -0.044 27.570   19 -0.018   19 -0.024   12  0.036   20 0.4942   14  0.530   11  0.110   17 -0.039   13 -0.008
RANGERS      28 30 196 198 -0.006 28.552   20 -0.022   20 -0.027   20 -0.011   22 0.4926   28  0.110   26 -0.284    3  0.263   28 -0.293
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS       26 30 228 281  0.013 28.164   21 -0.039   21 -0.042   24 -0.142   19 0.4946    3  0.708   12  0.104   28 -0.388   25 -0.236
RED SOX      28 31 280 264 -0.021 28.630   22 -0.044   22 -0.049   16  0.016   24 0.4896    5  0.691    7  0.246   25 -0.213   10  0.102
BRAVES       26 30 230 220 -0.000 27.656   23 -0.046   23 -0.050   17  0.010   21 0.4927   22  0.302   23 -0.113   10  0.134   22 -0.156
NATIONALS    27 30 253 292 -0.036 27.493   24 -0.061   24 -0.056   23 -0.125   23 0.4915    8  0.635   15  0.049   27 -0.299   11  0.045
MARLINS      22 33 229 307  0.022 27.910   25 -0.130   25 -0.125   27 -0.174   25 0.4783    2  0.767    9  0.132   30 -0.481   23 -0.169
ATHLETICS    23 35 242 347 -0.014 28.658   26 -0.161   26 -0.153   29 -0.222   26 0.4738    6  0.669   17 -0.014   29 -0.429    5  0.250
PIRATES      21 37 185 246  0.049 29.961   27 -0.176   27 -0.168   25 -0.144   27 0.4726   30  0.022   29 -0.480    7  0.193    9  0.102
ORIOLES      20 36 215 311  0.022 28.407   28 -0.193   28 -0.186   28 -0.218   28 0.4685   17  0.420   24 -0.242   23 -0.194    3  0.385
WHITE SOX    18 39 197 246  0.001 28.385   29 -0.252   29 -0.260   26 -0.147   29 0.4562   24  0.237   28 -0.323   15  0.029   12  0.009
ROCKIES       9 48 179 356  0.059 30.049   30 -0.460   30 -0.464   30 -0.434   30 0.4245   25  0.203   30 -0.637   26 -0.231    1  0.658

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      35 22 322 254 -0.015 27.560    6  0.152    6  0.151    5  0.158    4 0.5260   11  0.607    4  0.306   16  0.011    6  0.226
GIANTS       32 25 244 203  0.015 28.331    8  0.091    8  0.094    7  0.104    8 0.5169   23  0.260   22 -0.054    4  0.262   15 -0.013
PADRES       32 23 236 217 -0.038 26.291    9  0.090    9  0.093   13  0.028    9 0.5150   16  0.444   16  0.025   14  0.031   27 -0.283
DIAMONDBACKS 27 30 286 294  0.050 29.275   18 -0.007   18 -0.009   14  0.028   18 0.4974    4  0.694    6  0.260   24 -0.205    8  0.147
ROCKIES       9 48 179 356  0.059 30.049   30 -0.460   30 -0.464   30 -0.434   30 0.4245   25  0.203   30 -0.637   26 -0.231    1  0.658

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         35 22 332 241 -0.014 27.531    4  0.155    5  0.152    3  0.197    6 0.5248    1  0.769    1  0.505   20 -0.110   19 -0.074
CARDINALS    32 25 270 235  0.030 28.725    7  0.099    7  0.102    6  0.114    7 0.5189    7  0.658    3  0.310   18 -0.082   24 -0.215
BREWERS      30 28 252 247  0.008 28.818   15  0.026   15  0.028   15  0.022   16 0.5021    9  0.627    8  0.188   21 -0.143   30 -0.411
REDS         29 29 270 234 -0.044 27.570   19 -0.018   19 -0.024   12  0.036   20 0.4942   14  0.530   11  0.110   17 -0.039   13 -0.008
PIRATES      21 37 185 246  0.049 29.961   27 -0.176   27 -0.168   25 -0.144   27 0.4726   30  0.022   29 -0.480    7  0.193    9  0.102

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         35 22 247 188  0.010 28.166    3  0.166    2  0.164    4  0.162    3 0.5275   26  0.191   21 -0.050    1  0.374   21 -0.138
PHILLIES     36 21 272 237 -0.057 26.742    5  0.154    4  0.156   10  0.066    5 0.5255   20  0.343   19 -0.023    9  0.156    4  0.267
BRAVES       26 30 230 220 -0.000 27.656   23 -0.046   23 -0.050   17  0.010   21 0.4927   22  0.302   23 -0.113   10  0.134   22 -0.156
NATIONALS    27 30 253 292 -0.036 27.493   24 -0.061   24 -0.056   23 -0.125   23 0.4915    8  0.635   15  0.049   27 -0.299   11  0.045
MARLINS      22 33 229 307  0.022 27.910   25 -0.130   25 -0.125   27 -0.174   25 0.4783    2  0.767    9  0.132   30 -0.481   23 -0.169

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       31 26 235 208  0.024 28.623   10  0.074   10  0.075    8  0.092   10 0.5132   18  0.415   14  0.064   11  0.121   16 -0.019
MARINERS     30 26 256 250 -0.014 27.342   13  0.036   13  0.040   18  0.004   13 0.5073   13  0.543   13  0.091   19 -0.082   17 -0.020
RANGERS      28 30 196 198 -0.006 28.552   20 -0.022   20 -0.027   20 -0.011   22 0.4926   28  0.110   26 -0.284    3  0.263   28 -0.293
ANGELS       26 30 228 281  0.013 28.164   21 -0.039   21 -0.042   24 -0.142   19 0.4946    3  0.708   12  0.104   28 -0.388   25 -0.236
ATHLETICS    23 35 242 347 -0.014 28.658   26 -0.161   26 -0.153   29 -0.222   26 0.4738    6  0.669   17 -0.014   29 -0.429    5  0.250

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       38 20 295 209  0.002 28.378    1  0.221    1  0.221    2  0.226    1 0.5383   12  0.591    2  0.358   13  0.094   26 -0.257
TWINS        31 25 228 196 -0.000 27.565   11  0.074   11  0.075    9  0.082   11 0.5131   21  0.319   20 -0.028    8  0.192   18 -0.073
GUARDIANS    30 26 224 244  0.020 28.155   12  0.053   12  0.061   22 -0.025   12 0.5126   10  0.615   10  0.129   22 -0.180   29 -0.332
ROYALS       30 28 193 200  0.017 29.073   14  0.031   14  0.035   19 -0.007   14 0.5037   29  0.074   27 -0.306    2  0.293   20 -0.089
WHITE SOX    18 39 197 246  0.001 28.385   29 -0.252   29 -0.260   26 -0.147   29 0.4562   24  0.237   28 -0.323   15  0.029   12  0.009

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      35 21 310 200 -0.020 26.891    2  0.167    3  0.161    1  0.260    2 0.5292   15  0.466    5  0.278    5  0.243    7  0.213
BLUE JAYS    29 28 232 242 -0.003 28.119   17  0.008   16  0.010   21 -0.016   15 0.5022   27  0.145   25 -0.263    6  0.231    2  0.391
RAYS         29 28 240 211 -0.014 27.777   16  0.009   17  0.004   11  0.046   17 0.4980   19  0.372   18 -0.019   12  0.111   14 -0.009
RED SOX      28 31 280 264 -0.021 28.630   22 -0.044   22 -0.049   16  0.016   24 0.4896    5  0.691    7  0.246   25 -0.213   10  0.102
ORIOLES      20 36 215 311  0.022 28.407   28 -0.193   28 -0.186   28 -0.218   28 0.4685   17  0.420   24 -0.242   23 -0.194    3  0.385

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 147 141 0.510    1  0.069
AL CENTRAL 147 138 0.516    2  0.039
AL EAST    141 144 0.495    3  0.027
NL EAST    146 136 0.518    4 -0.019
NL WEST    135 148 0.477    5 -0.028
AL WEST    138 147 0.484    6 -0.084

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.086 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat May 31 05:30:06 2025
games through: Fri May 30 2025

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