Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      74 44 594 456 -0.020 57.110    1  0.218    1  0.186    1  0.175    1 0.5284    2  0.695    1  0.376   19 -0.026   29 -0.404
BLUE JAYS    69 50 583 539  0.006 58.980    2  0.132    2  0.128    9  0.073    2 0.5198   12  0.526    9  0.111   14  0.034    8  0.120
CUBS         67 50 599 482  0.014 58.237    3  0.121    3  0.123    2  0.168    3 0.5192    7  0.633    2  0.308   16  0.027   21 -0.083
PHILLIES     69 49 555 462 -0.024 56.993    4  0.111    4  0.119    3  0.124    4 0.5181   28  0.271   20 -0.057    1  0.305    4  0.333
TIGERS       69 51 577 499 -0.012 58.605    5  0.096    5  0.111    6  0.106    5 0.5170   14  0.491    7  0.114    8  0.099    9  0.088
DODGERS      68 51 615 533 -0.012 58.045    6  0.086    6  0.105    7  0.100    6 0.5158   16  0.472   10  0.090    6  0.110    3  0.373
ASTROS       67 52 520 465 -0.000 58.695    7  0.074    7  0.097    8  0.079    7 0.5152   23  0.388   17 -0.004    3  0.163   15 -0.008
PADRES       67 52 493 455 -0.005 58.458    8  0.071    8  0.095   12  0.057    8 0.5146   29  0.250   25 -0.142    2  0.255   14 -0.006
MARINERS     66 53 547 510  0.016 59.496    9  0.069    9  0.094   11  0.062    9 0.5142    3  0.657    5  0.225   23 -0.101   28 -0.355
RED SOX      65 55 599 516  0.012 59.719   10  0.046   10  0.073    5  0.108   10 0.5107    8  0.630    4  0.245   20 -0.029   18 -0.032
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      63 56 602 517  0.018 59.509   11  0.033   11  0.057    4  0.120   11 0.5096    5  0.639    3  0.266   18 -0.025   19 -0.052
METS         63 55 513 483 -0.022 57.257   12  0.020   12  0.040   15  0.023   12 0.5058   21  0.395   19 -0.055    7  0.101   20 -0.060
GUARDIANS    61 56 466 485 -0.003 57.709   13  0.015   13  0.030   21 -0.030   13 0.5053   25  0.361   24 -0.137   10  0.077   16 -0.011
REDS         62 58 540 502 -0.009 58.796   14  0.012   14  0.020   14  0.034   15 0.5025   13  0.523   12  0.070   17 -0.002   23 -0.094
CARDINALS    61 59 521 538  0.010 59.835   15  0.010   15  0.019   18 -0.017   14 0.5030   11  0.581   11  0.074   24 -0.107   24 -0.151
RANGERS      61 59 489 429  0.001 59.230   16  0.009   16  0.015   10  0.072   16 0.5017   18  0.406   16  0.003    5  0.140   30 -0.480
ROYALS       59 60 441 457  0.011 59.407   17  0.005   17  0.001   20 -0.030   17 0.4997   26  0.340   26 -0.154    9  0.095   26 -0.250
RAYS         58 62 538 495  0.017 60.033   18  0.000   18 -0.016   13  0.049   19 0.4971   17  0.453   15  0.021   11  0.076   13  0.009
GIANTS       59 60 489 481 -0.017 58.074   19  0.000   19 -0.017   16 -0.008   18 0.4973   22  0.393   22 -0.088   12  0.071   25 -0.209
ANGELS       57 62 522 589  0.021 59.908   20 -0.002   20 -0.020   24 -0.072   20 0.4963   10  0.597   14  0.033   26 -0.177   12  0.012
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARLINS      57 61 505 565  0.002 58.507   21 -0.004   21 -0.027   25 -0.072   22 0.4948    1  0.702    6  0.136   28 -0.281   27 -0.281
TWINS        56 62 496 524  0.006 58.625   22 -0.008   22 -0.036   19 -0.026   21 0.4951   24  0.375   23 -0.121   13  0.069    5  0.169
DIAMONDBACKS 57 62 586 585 -0.029 57.454   23 -0.016   23 -0.051   17 -0.014   23 0.4921    9  0.620    8  0.113   25 -0.141    7  0.157
ORIOLES      53 65 505 593  0.007 58.821   24 -0.040   24 -0.075   28 -0.114   24 0.4883   20  0.397   27 -0.190   21 -0.038    2  0.379
ATHLETICS    53 68 536 637  0.015 60.634   25 -0.053   25 -0.088   26 -0.096   25 0.4868    6  0.634   13  0.045   27 -0.236    6  0.160
PIRATES      51 69 427 491  0.021 60.438   26 -0.079   26 -0.105   23 -0.071   26 0.4838   30  0.209   29 -0.301    4  0.159   17 -0.011
BRAVES       51 67 499 517 -0.013 57.794   27 -0.093   27 -0.113   22 -0.047   27 0.4826   15  0.477   18 -0.053   22 -0.041   22 -0.086
NATIONALS    47 71 502 648 -0.010 58.151   28 -0.196   28 -0.167   29 -0.214   28 0.4750    4  0.647   21 -0.060   29 -0.368   10  0.085
WHITE SOX    43 76 453 529  0.020 59.887   29 -0.231   29 -0.205   27 -0.106   29 0.4691   27  0.329   28 -0.239   15  0.028   11  0.040
ROCKIES      30 88 438 768  0.012 59.403   30 -0.408   30 -0.387   30 -0.439   30 0.4406   19  0.406   30 -0.507   30 -0.370    1  0.651
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      68 51 615 533 -0.012 58.045    6  0.086    6  0.105    7  0.100    6 0.5158   16  0.472   10  0.090    6  0.110    3  0.373
PADRES       67 52 493 455 -0.005 58.458    8  0.071    8  0.095   12  0.057    8 0.5146   29  0.250   25 -0.142    2  0.255   14 -0.006
GIANTS       59 60 489 481 -0.017 58.074   19  0.000   19 -0.017   16 -0.008   18 0.4973   22  0.393   22 -0.088   12  0.071   25 -0.209
DIAMONDBACKS 57 62 586 585 -0.029 57.454   23 -0.016   23 -0.051   17 -0.014   23 0.4921    9  0.620    8  0.113   25 -0.141    7  0.157
ROCKIES      30 88 438 768  0.012 59.403   30 -0.408   30 -0.387   30 -0.439   30 0.4406   19  0.406   30 -0.507   30 -0.370    1  0.651

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      74 44 594 456 -0.020 57.110    1  0.218    1  0.186    1  0.175    1 0.5284    2  0.695    1  0.376   19 -0.026   29 -0.404
CUBS         67 50 599 482  0.014 58.237    3  0.121    3  0.123    2  0.168    3 0.5192    7  0.633    2  0.308   16  0.027   21 -0.083
REDS         62 58 540 502 -0.009 58.796   14  0.012   14  0.020   14  0.034   15 0.5025   13  0.523   12  0.070   17 -0.002   23 -0.094
CARDINALS    61 59 521 538  0.010 59.835   15  0.010   15  0.019   18 -0.017   14 0.5030   11  0.581   11  0.074   24 -0.107   24 -0.151
PIRATES      51 69 427 491  0.021 60.438   26 -0.079   26 -0.105   23 -0.071   26 0.4838   30  0.209   29 -0.301    4  0.159   17 -0.011

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     69 49 555 462 -0.024 56.993    4  0.111    4  0.119    3  0.124    4 0.5181   28  0.271   20 -0.057    1  0.305    4  0.333
METS         63 55 513 483 -0.022 57.257   12  0.020   12  0.040   15  0.023   12 0.5058   21  0.395   19 -0.055    7  0.101   20 -0.060
MARLINS      57 61 505 565  0.002 58.507   21 -0.004   21 -0.027   25 -0.072   22 0.4948    1  0.702    6  0.136   28 -0.281   27 -0.281
BRAVES       51 67 499 517 -0.013 57.794   27 -0.093   27 -0.113   22 -0.047   27 0.4826   15  0.477   18 -0.053   22 -0.041   22 -0.086
NATIONALS    47 71 502 648 -0.010 58.151   28 -0.196   28 -0.167   29 -0.214   28 0.4750    4  0.647   21 -0.060   29 -0.368   10  0.085

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       67 52 520 465 -0.000 58.695    7  0.074    7  0.097    8  0.079    7 0.5152   23  0.388   17 -0.004    3  0.163   15 -0.008
MARINERS     66 53 547 510  0.016 59.496    9  0.069    9  0.094   11  0.062    9 0.5142    3  0.657    5  0.225   23 -0.101   28 -0.355
RANGERS      61 59 489 429  0.001 59.230   16  0.009   16  0.015   10  0.072   16 0.5017   18  0.406   16  0.003    5  0.140   30 -0.480
ANGELS       57 62 522 589  0.021 59.908   20 -0.002   20 -0.020   24 -0.072   20 0.4963   10  0.597   14  0.033   26 -0.177   12  0.012
ATHLETICS    53 68 536 637  0.015 60.634   25 -0.053   25 -0.088   26 -0.096   25 0.4868    6  0.634   13  0.045   27 -0.236    6  0.160

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       69 51 577 499 -0.012 58.605    5  0.096    5  0.111    6  0.106    5 0.5170   14  0.491    7  0.114    8  0.099    9  0.088
GUARDIANS    61 56 466 485 -0.003 57.709   13  0.015   13  0.030   21 -0.030   13 0.5053   25  0.361   24 -0.137   10  0.077   16 -0.011
ROYALS       59 60 441 457  0.011 59.407   17  0.005   17  0.001   20 -0.030   17 0.4997   26  0.340   26 -0.154    9  0.095   26 -0.250
TWINS        56 62 496 524  0.006 58.625   22 -0.008   22 -0.036   19 -0.026   21 0.4951   24  0.375   23 -0.121   13  0.069    5  0.169
WHITE SOX    43 76 453 529  0.020 59.887   29 -0.231   29 -0.205   27 -0.106   29 0.4691   27  0.329   28 -0.239   15  0.028   11  0.040

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    69 50 583 539  0.006 58.980    2  0.132    2  0.128    9  0.073    2 0.5198   12  0.526    9  0.111   14  0.034    8  0.120
RED SOX      65 55 599 516  0.012 59.719   10  0.046   10  0.073    5  0.108   10 0.5107    8  0.630    4  0.245   20 -0.029   18 -0.032
YANKEES      63 56 602 517  0.018 59.509   11  0.033   11  0.057    4  0.120   11 0.5096    5  0.639    3  0.266   18 -0.025   19 -0.052
RAYS         58 62 538 495  0.017 60.033   18  0.000   18 -0.016   13  0.049   19 0.4971   17  0.453   15  0.021   11  0.076   13  0.009
ORIOLES      53 65 505 593  0.007 58.821   24 -0.040   24 -0.075   28 -0.114   24 0.4883   20  0.397   27 -0.190   21 -0.038    2  0.379

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 315 280 0.529    1  0.081
AL EAST    308 288 0.517    2  0.066
AL WEST    304 294 0.508    3  0.013
AL CENTRAL 288 305 0.486    4 -0.024
NL EAST    287 303 0.486    5 -0.052
NL WEST    281 313 0.473    6 -0.081

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.075 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Aug 12 05:30:10 2025
games through: Mon Aug 11 2025

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