Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       52 32 421 325 -0.023 40.464    1  0.172    2  0.157    3  0.161    1 0.5263   13  0.574    7  0.259   13  0.063   21 -0.100
DODGERS      52 32 472 386 -0.021 40.511    2  0.171    1  0.157    4  0.125    2 0.5263    9  0.626    5  0.274   18 -0.023    4  0.296
CUBS         49 34 453 347  0.015 41.176    3  0.149    3  0.137    1  0.185    3 0.5235    7  0.649    2  0.355   16  0.016   13  0.021
ASTROS       49 34 348 304 -0.005 40.689    4  0.128    4  0.124    8  0.090    4 0.5220   19  0.363   15 -0.001    7  0.180   17 -0.032
YANKEES      47 35 410 304 -0.022 39.522    7  0.078    8  0.090    2  0.173    5 0.5173   17  0.391   12  0.106    3  0.240   11  0.082
PHILLIES     48 35 384 339 -0.025 39.983    6  0.088    5  0.098   10  0.074    6 0.5163   28  0.206   22 -0.144    1  0.291    2  0.458
RAYS         47 36 402 327 -0.008 40.512    9  0.073    9  0.088    5  0.121    7 0.5148   11  0.624    6  0.267   19 -0.025   23 -0.129
CARDINALS    46 38 396 358  0.033 42.440   10  0.070   10  0.086    7  0.092    8 0.5144    5  0.685    3  0.297   21 -0.113   25 -0.184
BREWERS      47 36 394 337  0.007 41.011    5  0.089    6  0.097    6  0.103    9 0.5143    2  0.742    1  0.366   23 -0.160   30 -0.523
METS         48 36 367 317 -0.020 40.618    8  0.075    7  0.091    9  0.076   10 0.5138   23  0.322   17 -0.049    5  0.201   24 -0.165
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       45 37 343 325  0.003 40.490   11  0.054   11  0.071   13  0.039   11 0.5121   21  0.336   20 -0.074    9  0.152   20 -0.090
BLUE JAYS    44 38 360 366  0.005 40.611   12  0.037   12  0.054   17  0.009   12 0.5100   16  0.393   19 -0.056   12  0.073    6  0.218
GIANTS       45 38 347 312 -0.028 39.947   13  0.028   13  0.043   12  0.040   13 0.5072   26  0.247   23 -0.145    4  0.226   19 -0.050
REDS         43 40 384 345  0.010 41.176   14  0.021   14  0.031   11  0.063   14 0.5039   14  0.538   11  0.128   17 -0.002   16 -0.027
MARINERS     42 40 374 363 -0.011 40.079   15  0.007   15  0.011   19  0.002   15 0.5031    8  0.637   10  0.160   22 -0.156   26 -0.300
ANGELS       41 41 355 401 -0.001 40.521   18  0.001   18 -0.000   24 -0.083   16 0.5014   12  0.597   14  0.037   25 -0.203   18 -0.032
GUARDIANS    40 41 303 343  0.015 40.516   17  0.002   17 -0.000   22 -0.061   17 0.5013   22  0.334   24 -0.175   14  0.054   15 -0.016
DIAMONDBACKS 41 41 428 424  0.003 40.513   16  0.003   16  0.001   14  0.022   18 0.4989    3  0.734    4  0.276   26 -0.232   10  0.097
RED SOX      41 43 396 384  0.012 41.812   19 -0.001   19 -0.010   15  0.020   19 0.4975    6  0.673    9  0.214   24 -0.173   12  0.024
TWINS        40 43 356 367  0.001 40.952   21 -0.011   21 -0.025   20 -0.001   20 0.4966   15  0.434   16 -0.030   15  0.027    7  0.195
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      41 42 304 286 -0.018 40.335   20 -0.007   20 -0.018   18  0.005   21 0.4958   27  0.244   25 -0.183    6  0.192   29 -0.436
ROYALS       39 44 276 305  0.015 41.543   22 -0.019   22 -0.033   21 -0.058   22 0.4929   25  0.276   27 -0.220   10  0.104   27 -0.349
BRAVES       38 44 338 325 -0.000 40.408   23 -0.033   23 -0.052   16  0.017   23 0.4911   24  0.301   21 -0.125    8  0.159   14 -0.014
MARLINS      36 45 347 423  0.003 40.254   24 -0.065   24 -0.077   26 -0.132   24 0.4859    1  0.823    8  0.214   30 -0.479   28 -0.357
PIRATES      34 50 285 338  0.069 43.837   25 -0.081   25 -0.096   23 -0.062   25 0.4843   30  0.055   28 -0.393    2  0.269    8  0.121
ORIOLES      35 47 340 421  0.010 40.936   26 -0.082   26 -0.097   25 -0.131   26 0.4831   18  0.370   26 -0.215   20 -0.046    3  0.424
ATHLETICS    34 51 349 484 -0.004 42.021   28 -0.153   28 -0.145   29 -0.196   27 0.4765   10  0.625   18 -0.049   28 -0.343    5  0.285
NATIONALS    34 49 359 430 -0.031 40.156   27 -0.152   27 -0.145   28 -0.162   28 0.4754    4  0.694   13  0.052   29 -0.376   22 -0.121
WHITE SOX    27 56 282 365  0.008 41.366   29 -0.243   29 -0.243   27 -0.155   29 0.4591   29  0.171   29 -0.400   11  0.090    9  0.105
ROCKIES      18 65 291 513  0.040 42.716   30 -0.401   30 -0.388   30 -0.383   30 0.4348   20  0.343   30 -0.490   27 -0.276    1  0.600

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      52 32 472 386 -0.021 40.511    2  0.171    1  0.157    4  0.125    2 0.5263    9  0.626    5  0.274   18 -0.023    4  0.296
PADRES       45 37 343 325  0.003 40.490   11  0.054   11  0.071   13  0.039   11 0.5121   21  0.336   20 -0.074    9  0.152   20 -0.090
GIANTS       45 38 347 312 -0.028 39.947   13  0.028   13  0.043   12  0.040   13 0.5072   26  0.247   23 -0.145    4  0.226   19 -0.050
DIAMONDBACKS 41 41 428 424  0.003 40.513   16  0.003   16  0.001   14  0.022   18 0.4989    3  0.734    4  0.276   26 -0.232   10  0.097
ROCKIES      18 65 291 513  0.040 42.716   30 -0.401   30 -0.388   30 -0.383   30 0.4348   20  0.343   30 -0.490   27 -0.276    1  0.600

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         49 34 453 347  0.015 41.176    3  0.149    3  0.137    1  0.185    3 0.5235    7  0.649    2  0.355   16  0.016   13  0.021
CARDINALS    46 38 396 358  0.033 42.440   10  0.070   10  0.086    7  0.092    8 0.5144    5  0.685    3  0.297   21 -0.113   25 -0.184
BREWERS      47 36 394 337  0.007 41.011    5  0.089    6  0.097    6  0.103    9 0.5143    2  0.742    1  0.366   23 -0.160   30 -0.523
REDS         43 40 384 345  0.010 41.176   14  0.021   14  0.031   11  0.063   14 0.5039   14  0.538   11  0.128   17 -0.002   16 -0.027
PIRATES      34 50 285 338  0.069 43.837   25 -0.081   25 -0.096   23 -0.062   25 0.4843   30  0.055   28 -0.393    2  0.269    8  0.121

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     48 35 384 339 -0.025 39.983    6  0.088    5  0.098   10  0.074    6 0.5163   28  0.206   22 -0.144    1  0.291    2  0.458
METS         48 36 367 317 -0.020 40.618    8  0.075    7  0.091    9  0.076   10 0.5138   23  0.322   17 -0.049    5  0.201   24 -0.165
BRAVES       38 44 338 325 -0.000 40.408   23 -0.033   23 -0.052   16  0.017   23 0.4911   24  0.301   21 -0.125    8  0.159   14 -0.014
MARLINS      36 45 347 423  0.003 40.254   24 -0.065   24 -0.077   26 -0.132   24 0.4859    1  0.823    8  0.214   30 -0.479   28 -0.357
NATIONALS    34 49 359 430 -0.031 40.156   27 -0.152   27 -0.145   28 -0.162   28 0.4754    4  0.694   13  0.052   29 -0.376   22 -0.121

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       49 34 348 304 -0.005 40.689    4  0.128    4  0.124    8  0.090    4 0.5220   19  0.363   15 -0.001    7  0.180   17 -0.032
MARINERS     42 40 374 363 -0.011 40.079   15  0.007   15  0.011   19  0.002   15 0.5031    8  0.637   10  0.160   22 -0.156   26 -0.300
ANGELS       41 41 355 401 -0.001 40.521   18  0.001   18 -0.000   24 -0.083   16 0.5014   12  0.597   14  0.037   25 -0.203   18 -0.032
RANGERS      41 42 304 286 -0.018 40.335   20 -0.007   20 -0.018   18  0.005   21 0.4958   27  0.244   25 -0.183    6  0.192   29 -0.436
ATHLETICS    34 51 349 484 -0.004 42.021   28 -0.153   28 -0.145   29 -0.196   27 0.4765   10  0.625   18 -0.049   28 -0.343    5  0.285

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       52 32 421 325 -0.023 40.464    1  0.172    2  0.157    3  0.161    1 0.5263   13  0.574    7  0.259   13  0.063   21 -0.100
GUARDIANS    40 41 303 343  0.015 40.516   17  0.002   17 -0.000   22 -0.061   17 0.5013   22  0.334   24 -0.175   14  0.054   15 -0.016
TWINS        40 43 356 367  0.001 40.952   21 -0.011   21 -0.025   20 -0.001   20 0.4966   15  0.434   16 -0.030   15  0.027    7  0.195
ROYALS       39 44 276 305  0.015 41.543   22 -0.019   22 -0.033   21 -0.058   22 0.4929   25  0.276   27 -0.220   10  0.104   27 -0.349
WHITE SOX    27 56 282 365  0.008 41.366   29 -0.243   29 -0.243   27 -0.155   29 0.4591   29  0.171   29 -0.400   11  0.090    9  0.105

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      47 35 410 304 -0.022 39.522    7  0.078    8  0.090    2  0.173    5 0.5173   17  0.391   12  0.106    3  0.240   11  0.082
RAYS         47 36 402 327 -0.008 40.512    9  0.073    9  0.088    5  0.121    7 0.5148   11  0.624    6  0.267   19 -0.025   23 -0.129
BLUE JAYS    44 38 360 366  0.005 40.611   12  0.037   12  0.054   17  0.009   12 0.5100   16  0.393   19 -0.056   12  0.073    6  0.218
RED SOX      41 43 396 384  0.012 41.812   19 -0.001   19 -0.010   15  0.020   19 0.4975    6  0.673    9  0.214   24 -0.173   12  0.024
ORIOLES      35 47 340 421  0.010 40.936   26 -0.082   26 -0.097   25 -0.131   26 0.4831   18  0.370   26 -0.215   20 -0.046    3  0.424

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 219 198 0.525    1  0.115
AL EAST    214 199 0.518    2  0.058
AL CENTRAL 198 216 0.478    3 -0.035
NL EAST    204 209 0.494    4 -0.038
NL WEST    201 213 0.486    5 -0.043
AL WEST    207 208 0.499    6 -0.054

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jun 29 05:30:08 2025
games through: Sat Jun 28 2025

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