Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lincoln CA               4  3  0  553  453 -0.874    1 -1.220    1 -1.254    1 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.483    1 -0.887    1 -0.895
Cheyney                  5 21  0 1546 2000 -2.023    2 -2.693    2 -2.902    4 -2.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  7.827   11 -3.733    2 -2.204
Clark St CC              1  5  0  457  523 -1.857    3 -2.768    3 -2.994    3 -2.965    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.573    4 -2.385    3 -3.544
Union NE                 3  5  0  584  712 -3.198    4 -3.046    4 -3.399    8 -3.871    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.476   10 -3.598    6 -4.144
Turtle Mountain          9  5  0 1220 1075 -4.094    5 -3.358    5 -3.828    7 -3.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.885    7 -3.041    5 -3.798
John Melvin              0  5  0  338  501 -0.379    6 -3.397    6 -3.904    5 -3.123    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.079    3 -2.050    7 -4.196
Blue Lights              0  3  0  235  267 -1.590    7 -3.634    7 -4.199    2 -2.668    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.514    2 -1.779    4 -3.558
Cal Miramar              0  5  0  368  504 -1.480    8 -3.643    8 -4.235    6 -3.384    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.276    5 -2.493    8 -4.274
Northwest Indian         0 13  0  808 1422 -1.340    9 -3.690    9 -4.315   10 -3.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  4.900    6 -3.023   11 -4.833
U of the Bahamas         0  4  0  211  393  0.957   10 -3.727   10 -4.442   13 -4.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.445   13 -4.580   10 -4.703
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio U-Lancaster         0 10  0  662  956 -1.872   11 -3.760   11 -4.517    9 -3.920    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.669    9 -3.436    9 -4.404
Sisseton Wahpeton        5  5  0  911  861 -4.617   12 -3.840   12 -4.707   11 -4.459    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.293    8 -3.363   13 -5.555
Canadian Mennonite       5 12  0 1362 1385 -4.502   13 -4.099   13 -5.243   12 -4.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.756   12 -4.054   12 -5.204
Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish    2  3  0  398  440 -5.632   14 -4.169   14 -5.394   14 -5.653    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.379   14 -5.244   15 -6.062
St-Boniface              0 13  0  851 1146 -4.337   15 -4.576   15 -6.330   15 -5.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  2.453   15 -5.772   14 -5.701
Patrick Henry            0 10  0  635  924 -4.591   16 -4.601   16 -6.412   16 -6.253    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.266   16 -5.825   16 -6.681
Red Lake Nation          0  7  0  467  700 -5.814   17 -4.772   17 -7.012   17 -7.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  1.669   17 -7.017   17 -7.194


Indep: strength=-3.259 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lincoln CA               4  3  0  553  453 -0.874    1 -1.220    1 -1.254    1 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.483    1 -0.887    1 -0.895
Cheyney                  5 21  0 1546 2000 -2.023    2 -2.693    2 -2.902    4 -2.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  7.827   11 -3.733    2 -2.204
Clark St CC              1  5  0  457  523 -1.857    3 -2.768    3 -2.994    3 -2.965    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.573    4 -2.385    3 -3.544
Union NE                 3  5  0  584  712 -3.198    4 -3.046    4 -3.399    8 -3.871    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.476   10 -3.598    6 -4.144
John Melvin              0  5  0  338  501 -0.379    6 -3.397    6 -3.904    5 -3.123    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.079    3 -2.050    7 -4.196
Blue Lights              0  3  0  235  267 -1.590    7 -3.634    7 -4.199    2 -2.668    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.514    2 -1.779    4 -3.558
Cal Miramar              0  5  0  368  504 -1.480    8 -3.643    8 -4.235    6 -3.384    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.276    5 -2.493    8 -4.274
Northwest Indian         0 13  0  808 1422 -1.340    9 -3.690    9 -4.315   10 -3.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  4.900    6 -3.023   11 -4.833
U of the Bahamas         0  4  0  211  393  0.957   10 -3.727   10 -4.442   13 -4.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.445   13 -4.580   10 -4.703
Patrick Henry            0 10  0  635  924 -4.591   16 -4.601   16 -6.412   16 -6.253    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.266   16 -5.825   16 -6.681

MCAC-NIAC: strength=-4.715 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Trinity Bible           17 11  0 2383 2355 -3.279      -2.672      -2.875      -3.122      0.0000      0.0000       7.735      -2.269      -3.976
Providence MB           17 10  0 2070 2077 -4.113      -3.204      -3.630      -3.915      0.0000      0.0000       6.061      -3.970      -3.860
Turtle Mountain          9  5  0 1220 1075 -4.094    5 -3.358    5 -3.828    7 -3.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.885    7 -3.041    5 -3.798
Oak Hills Christian      8 17  0 1976 2363 -3.771      -3.634      -4.204      -4.140      0.0000      0.0000       4.940      -3.028      -5.251
Sisseton Wahpeton        5  5  0  911  861 -4.617   12 -3.840   12 -4.707   11 -4.459    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.293    8 -3.363   13 -5.555
FLBC                     4 17  0 1432 1787 -4.208      -4.007      -5.040      -5.129      0.0000      0.0000       3.759      -5.326      -4.932
Canadian Mennonite       5 12  0 1362 1385 -4.502   13 -4.099   13 -5.243   12 -4.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.756   12 -4.054   12 -5.204
Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish    2  3  0  398  440 -5.632   14 -4.169   14 -5.394   14 -5.653    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.379   14 -5.244   15 -6.062
St-Boniface              0 13  0  851 1146 -4.337   15 -4.576   15 -6.330   15 -5.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  2.453   15 -5.772   14 -5.701
Red Lake Nation          0  7  0  467  700 -5.814   17 -4.772   17 -7.012   17 -7.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  1.669   17 -7.017   17 -7.194

ORCC: strength=-2.223 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          18 11  0 2096 1916 -1.598      -1.374      -1.422      -1.252      0.0000      0.0000      12.586      -1.835      -0.670
Miami-Middletown        11 13  0 1835 1960 -1.746      -1.744      -1.830      -2.018      0.0000      0.0000      10.945      -1.491      -2.545
Ohio U-Lancaster         0 10  0  662  956 -1.872   11 -3.760   11 -4.517    9 -3.920    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.669    9 -3.436    9 -4.404

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
ORCC             29  34   0 0.460    1 -2.223
Indep            13  74   0 0.149    2 -3.259
MCAC-NIAC        67 100   0 0.401    3 -4.715

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.030 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:49:18 2023

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