Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          18 11  0 2096 1916 -1.598    1 -1.374    1 -1.422    1 -1.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.586    9 -1.835    1 -0.670
Penn St-York            21  4  0 2007 1621 -2.430    2 -1.380    2 -1.433    4 -1.601    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.474    7 -1.636    2 -1.565
East-West                5 23  0 1941 2607 -0.881    3 -1.498    3 -1.569    8 -2.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.630    4 -1.382   17 -2.817
Kent St-Tuscarawas      18  9  0 2235 1986 -1.996    4 -1.555    4 -1.621    3 -1.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.848    2 -1.203    5 -1.847
Miami-Middletown        11 13  0 1835 1960 -1.746    5 -1.744    5 -1.830    7 -2.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.945    6 -1.491   11 -2.545
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    19 10  0 2128 1915 -2.243    6 -1.861    6 -1.956    5 -1.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.724   12 -2.166    3 -1.567
Berkeley-NY             16 10  0 2238 2036 -2.324    7 -1.876    7 -1.975    6 -1.977    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.441    3 -1.214   14 -2.741
Cincinnati-Clermont     10 12  0 1715 1818 -1.928    8 -1.925    8 -2.036    9 -2.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.255    5 -1.466   16 -2.803
Villa Maria             18  8  0 2017 1737 -2.729    9 -2.118    9 -2.231   10 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.648   17 -2.603    9 -2.041
Penn St-Brandywine      14 10  0 1756 1745 -2.579   10 -2.194   10 -2.289   12 -2.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.303   13 -2.359   12 -2.610
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Mont Alto       19  9  0 1774 1744 -2.891   11 -2.201   11 -2.299   15 -2.769    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.200   26 -3.861    4 -1.677
New Hampshire Tech      13  5  0 1467 1310 -2.995   12 -2.407   12 -2.509   14 -2.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  8.877   11 -2.131   20 -3.069
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14 18  0 2437 2640 -2.286   13 -2.422   13 -2.528   11 -2.451    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  8.833    8 -1.721   21 -3.181
Central Maine CC        13  6  0 1464 1339 -3.152   14 -2.511   14 -2.647   16 -2.789    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.353   19 -2.805   15 -2.773
Southern Maine CC       15  9  0 1611 1517 -3.133   15 -2.616   15 -2.797   17 -2.938    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.062   27 -3.906    7 -1.970
Great Bay CC            13  9  0 1747 1602 -3.127   16 -2.737   16 -2.943   13 -2.532    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  7.747   10 -2.091   18 -2.973
Penn St-Fayette         10 14  0 1774 1917 -2.786   17 -2.769   17 -3.001   19 -3.051    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.497   16 -2.559   27 -3.542
Bucks County CC          8  2  0  867  769 -3.992   18 -2.869   18 -3.151   20 -3.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.208   14 -2.385   29 -3.837
Penn St-New Kensington   8 15  0 1544 1647 -2.769   19 -2.912   19 -3.196   18 -3.037    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  7.189   22 -3.418   13 -2.656
Navajo Tech              0  6  0  427  547 -0.000   20 -2.966   20 -3.275    2 -1.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  7.632    1 -1.003    6 -1.937
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Beaver           7 13  0 1211 1317 -2.914   21 -2.967   21 -3.285   22 -3.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  6.923   32 -4.293    8 -2.005
Maine-Augusta            9 15  0 1839 1982 -3.015   22 -3.017   22 -3.359   23 -3.343    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  6.803   18 -2.773   31 -3.913
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    6 14  0 1404 1517 -2.756   23 -3.061   23 -3.425   21 -3.140    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  6.728   20 -2.854   24 -3.427
Vermont Tech             9 14  0 1597 1709 -3.232   24 -3.084   24 -3.458   26 -3.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.511   25 -3.802   22 -3.282
Central Penn             7 12  0 1433 1667 -3.391   25 -3.184   25 -3.605   29 -3.860    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.106   21 -3.068   36 -4.652
Penn St-DuBois           4 16  0 1280 1549 -2.837   26 -3.233   26 -3.667   27 -3.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  6.070   28 -3.934   26 -3.536
Penn St-Worth Scranton   7 15  0 1441 1681 -3.382   27 -3.282   27 -3.743   31 -4.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  5.788   31 -4.291   28 -3.809
Penn St-Shenango         4 21  0 1876 2210 -2.752   28 -3.360   28 -3.826   25 -3.507    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.875   15 -2.486   35 -4.527
Paul Smith's             9 12  0 1615 1641 -3.778   29 -3.363   29 -3.832   30 -3.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  5.670   23 -3.436   34 -4.486
Andrews                  3 13  0  959 1289 -3.150   30 -3.394   30 -3.876   32 -4.057    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  5.521   35 -4.636   25 -3.477
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Christendom              7 11  0 1099 1129 -3.425   31 -3.402   31 -3.924   24 -3.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  5.644   33 -4.498   10 -2.401
SUNY-ESF                 5 12  0 1195 1303 -3.409   32 -3.462   32 -4.011   28 -3.830    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.413   24 -3.760   30 -3.900
Penn St-Hazleton         2 16  0 1044 1334 -2.964   33 -3.597   33 -4.141   33 -4.098    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  5.066   36 -4.817   23 -3.379
Crown TN                 4  8  0  868 1029 -4.040   34 -3.649   34 -4.255   37 -4.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  4.759   30 -4.069   37 -4.876
Albany Pharmacy          4 16  0 1282 1552 -3.514   35 -3.651   35 -4.259   36 -4.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  4.813   34 -4.539   32 -4.007
Williamson Trade         5 11  0  950 1034 -3.948   36 -3.732   36 -4.460   35 -4.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  4.644   37 -5.482   19 -3.022
Five Towns               6 14  0 1454 1518 -3.832   37 -3.870   37 -4.783   34 -4.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  4.298   29 -3.938   33 -4.312
Word of Life             3 14  0 1095 1376 -4.795   38 -4.296   38 -5.746   38 -5.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  3.105   38 -5.675   39 -5.721
Vaughn                   3 11  0  774 1069 -5.633   39 -4.485   39 -6.088   39 -6.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  2.562   40 -7.378   38 -5.667
King's NY                2  8  0  598  748 -6.413   40 -4.901   40 -7.469   40 -6.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  1.464   39 -7.342   40 -6.458
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Webb Institute           1  2  0   83  189 -10.538   41 -5.185   41 -7.901   41 -9.979    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  0.500   41 -11.568   42 -8.389
Culinary Institute       0  7  0  196  561 -9.603   42 -5.433   42 -9.524   42 -10.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  0.000   42 -12.601   41 -8.089


HVIAC: strength=-5.011 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Berkeley-NY             16 10  0 2238 2036 -2.324    7 -1.876    7 -1.975    6 -1.977    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.441    3 -1.214   14 -2.741
Villa Maria             18  8  0 2017 1737 -2.729    9 -2.118    9 -2.231   10 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  9.648   17 -2.603    9 -2.041
SUNY-ESF                 5 12  0 1195 1303 -3.409   32 -3.462   32 -4.011   28 -3.830    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  5.413   24 -3.760   30 -3.900
Five Towns               6 14  0 1454 1518 -3.832   37 -3.870   37 -4.783   34 -4.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  4.298   29 -3.938   33 -4.312
Word of Life             3 14  0 1095 1376 -4.795   38 -4.296   38 -5.746   38 -5.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  3.105   38 -5.675   39 -5.721
Vaughn                   3 11  0  774 1069 -5.633   39 -4.485   39 -6.088   39 -6.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  2.562   40 -7.378   38 -5.667
King's NY                2  8  0  598  748 -6.413   40 -4.901   40 -7.469   40 -6.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  1.464   39 -7.342   40 -6.458
Culinary Institute       0  7  0  196  561 -9.603   42 -5.433   42 -9.524   42 -10.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  0.000   42 -12.601   41 -8.089

Yankee Small: strength=-3.259 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      13  5  0 1467 1310 -2.995   12 -2.407   12 -2.509   14 -2.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  8.877   11 -2.131   20 -3.069
Central Maine CC        13  6  0 1464 1339 -3.152   14 -2.511   14 -2.647   16 -2.789    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.353   19 -2.805   15 -2.773
Southern Maine CC       15  9  0 1611 1517 -3.133   15 -2.616   15 -2.797   17 -2.938    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.062   27 -3.906    7 -1.970
Great Bay CC            13  9  0 1747 1602 -3.127   16 -2.737   16 -2.943   13 -2.532    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  7.747   10 -2.091   18 -2.973
Maine-Augusta            9 15  0 1839 1982 -3.015   22 -3.017   22 -3.359   23 -3.343    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  6.803   18 -2.773   31 -3.913
Vermont Tech             9 14  0 1597 1709 -3.232   24 -3.084   24 -3.458   26 -3.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.511   25 -3.802   22 -3.282
Paul Smith's             9 12  0 1615 1641 -3.778   29 -3.363   29 -3.832   30 -3.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  5.670   23 -3.436   34 -4.486
Albany Pharmacy          4 16  0 1282 1552 -3.514   35 -3.651   35 -4.259   36 -4.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  4.813   34 -4.539   32 -4.007

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Yankee Small     85  86   0 0.497    1 -3.259
HVIAC            53  84   0 0.387    2 -5.011

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.030 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:49:18 2023

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