Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Kansas Christian        19 14  0 2876 2750 -1.220    1 -1.010    1 -1.137    1 -1.076    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.532    1 -0.084    6 -2.067
Champion Christian      13 15  0 2149 2481 -1.553    2 -1.398    2 -1.452    8 -1.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.142    3 -1.181   12 -2.677
Manhattan Christian     17 12  0 2244 2175 -1.783    3 -1.440    3 -1.503    2 -1.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.006    8 -1.674    3 -1.725
Great Lakes Christian   18 17  0 2854 2806 -1.635    4 -1.566    4 -1.634    4 -1.809    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.668    4 -1.244    7 -2.374
Simmons KY              13 12  0 1781 1740 -1.766    5 -1.673    5 -1.743    3 -1.761    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.231   13 -2.248    2 -1.273
Camp U-Harrodsburg       9 19  0 2055 2253 -1.494    6 -1.946    7 -2.062    5 -1.851    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.373    9 -1.710    5 -1.992
Toccoa Falls            13 19  0 2401 2663 -1.758    7 -1.949    6 -2.051    9 -2.052    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.263    6 -1.647    9 -2.458
Trinity Baptist         12 15  0 1763 1852 -1.776    8 -1.987    8 -2.098    7 -1.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.300   21 -2.796    1 -1.039
Grace Christian         12 18  0 2435 2528 -1.689    9 -2.003    9 -2.117    6 -1.899    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.131    2 -1.142   11 -2.656
Bob Jones U.            11 15  0 1982 2150 -2.026   10 -2.123   10 -2.237   12 -2.325    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.506   12 -1.905   14 -2.745
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Pensacola Christian      9 15  0 1708 1944 -1.964   11 -2.139   11 -2.257   14 -2.546    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.315   16 -2.351   13 -2.741
Welch                   15 13  0 2159 1970 -2.275   12 -2.197   12 -2.291   10 -2.076    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.476   14 -2.254    4 -1.899
Ozark Christian         13 14  0 2227 2292 -2.237   13 -2.301   13 -2.370   13 -2.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.151    7 -1.650   16 -3.027
Southeastern Baptist     4 19  0 1397 1889 -1.524   14 -2.356   14 -2.444   16 -2.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.867   20 -2.777    8 -2.445
Boyce                    6 17  0 1709 1904 -1.753   15 -2.414   15 -2.514   11 -2.199    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  8.901   10 -1.828   10 -2.569
Dallas Christian         4 24  0 1943 2666 -1.499   16 -2.559   16 -2.711   15 -2.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.237   11 -1.867   19 -3.279
Spurgeon                11  9  0 1804 1748 -2.814   17 -2.638   17 -2.828   17 -2.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.017    5 -1.364   22 -3.859
Trinity Bible           17 11  0 2383 2355 -3.279   18 -2.672   18 -2.875   21 -3.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  7.735   15 -2.269   25 -3.976
Johnson FL               2 17  0 1230 1751 -1.643   19 -2.689   19 -2.895   18 -2.759    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.809   17 -2.433   18 -3.086
Emmaus Bible             6  6  0  889  994 -3.658   20 -2.994   20 -3.322   26 -3.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  6.596   28 -3.760   27 -4.053
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arlington Baptist        2 20  0 1370 2043 -1.766   21 -3.003   21 -3.337   19 -2.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  6.911   19 -2.638   17 -3.035
Faith Baptist Bible      9 11  0 1513 1643 -3.352   22 -3.014   22 -3.355   23 -3.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  6.645   23 -3.170   21 -3.784
SW Adventist             3 19  0 1430 1890 -2.331   23 -3.110   23 -3.496   20 -3.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  6.486   26 -3.344   15 -2.781
Randall                  3 23  0 1778 2372 -2.346   24 -3.138   24 -3.539   25 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.391   24 -3.182   26 -4.038
Providence MB           17 10  0 2070 2077 -4.113   25 -3.204   25 -3.630   27 -3.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  6.061   29 -3.970   23 -3.860
Ctr Chr Coll Bible MO    4 17  0 1504 1788 -2.858   26 -3.342   26 -3.801   24 -3.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  5.903   25 -3.191   20 -3.780
Trinity FL               2  9  0  876  912 -2.754   27 -3.580   27 -4.102   22 -3.208    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.472   18 -2.489   24 -3.927
Oak Hills Christian      8 17  0 1976 2363 -3.771   28 -3.634   28 -4.204   28 -4.140    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  4.940   22 -3.028   30 -5.251
Barclay                  1 19  0 1432 2172 -3.083   29 -3.754   29 -4.502   29 -4.357    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.471   27 -3.400   32 -5.313
Portland Bible           0 20  0  845 1914 -2.838   30 -3.842   30 -4.701   32 -5.402    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  4.003   33 -6.615   28 -4.189
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Calvary                  2 18  0 1325 1882 -3.645   31 -3.878   31 -4.801   30 -4.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  4.106   30 -4.109   29 -4.745
Appalachian Bible        1 12  0  795 1191 -4.245   32 -4.034   32 -5.098   31 -5.375    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  3.749   31 -5.176   33 -5.574
Moody Bible              0 20  0 1089 1846 -4.022   33 -4.266   33 -5.670   33 -5.697    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  3.083   32 -6.118   31 -5.276


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.542 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian     17 12  0 2244 2175 -1.783    3 -1.440    3 -1.503    2 -1.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.006    8 -1.674    3 -1.725
Ozark Christian         13 14  0 2227 2292 -2.237   13 -2.301   13 -2.370   13 -2.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  9.151    7 -1.650   16 -3.027
Emmaus Bible             6  6  0  889  994 -3.658   20 -2.994   20 -3.322   26 -3.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  6.596   28 -3.760   27 -4.053
Faith Baptist Bible      9 11  0 1513 1643 -3.352   22 -3.014   22 -3.355   23 -3.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  6.645   23 -3.170   21 -3.784
Ctr Chr Coll Bible MO    4 17  0 1504 1788 -2.858   26 -3.342   26 -3.801   24 -3.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  5.903   25 -3.191   20 -3.780
Barclay                  1 19  0 1432 2172 -3.083   29 -3.754   29 -4.502   29 -4.357    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.471   27 -3.400   32 -5.313
Calvary                  2 18  0 1325 1882 -3.645   31 -3.878   31 -4.801   30 -4.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  4.106   30 -4.109   29 -4.745

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.562 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Kansas Christian        19 14  0 2876 2750 -1.220    1 -1.010    1 -1.137    1 -1.076    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.532    1 -0.084    6 -2.067
Champion Christian      13 15  0 2149 2481 -1.553    2 -1.398    2 -1.452    8 -1.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.142    3 -1.181   12 -2.677
Dallas Christian         4 24  0 1943 2666 -1.499   16 -2.559   16 -2.711   15 -2.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  8.237   11 -1.867   19 -3.279
Spurgeon                11  9  0 1804 1748 -2.814   17 -2.638   17 -2.828   17 -2.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  8.017    5 -1.364   22 -3.859
Arlington Baptist        2 20  0 1370 2043 -1.766   21 -3.003   21 -3.337   19 -2.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  6.911   19 -2.638   17 -3.035
SW Adventist             3 19  0 1430 1890 -2.331   23 -3.110   23 -3.496   20 -3.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  6.486   26 -3.344   15 -2.781
Randall                  3 23  0 1778 2372 -2.346   24 -3.138   24 -3.539   25 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  6.391   24 -3.182   26 -4.038

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.471 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Toccoa Falls            13 19  0 2401 2663 -1.758    7 -1.949    6 -2.051    9 -2.052    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.263    6 -1.647    9 -2.458
Trinity Baptist         12 15  0 1763 1852 -1.776    8 -1.987    8 -2.098    7 -1.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.300   21 -2.796    1 -1.039
Bob Jones U.            11 15  0 1982 2150 -2.026   10 -2.123   10 -2.237   12 -2.325    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.506   12 -1.905   14 -2.745
Pensacola Christian      9 15  0 1708 1944 -1.964   11 -2.139   11 -2.257   14 -2.546    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  9.315   16 -2.351   13 -2.741
Southeastern Baptist     4 19  0 1397 1889 -1.524   14 -2.356   14 -2.444   16 -2.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  8.867   20 -2.777    8 -2.445
Johnson FL               2 17  0 1230 1751 -1.643   19 -2.689   19 -2.895   18 -2.759    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  7.809   17 -2.433   18 -3.086
Trinity FL               2  9  0  876  912 -2.754   27 -3.580   27 -4.102   22 -3.208    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  5.472   18 -2.489   24 -3.927

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II South   53 109   0 0.327    1 -2.471
NCCAA-II SW      55 124   0 0.307    2 -2.562
Midwest Chr      52  97   0 0.349    3 -3.542

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.030 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:49:18 2023

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