Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             28  5  0 2765 2442 -0.766    1  0.341    1  0.153    4 -0.328    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.225    6  0.043    4 -0.700
Ottawa ON               30  7  0 2940 2448 -0.753    2  0.143    2 -0.042    1 -0.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.792   11 -0.384    1  0.312
Victoria                25  6  0 2822 2444 -0.950    3 -0.063    3 -0.259    6 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 16.873    2  0.442   18 -1.272
Queen's ON              27  8  0 3048 2585 -0.892    4 -0.108    4 -0.309    3 -0.310    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.764    4  0.242    7 -0.862
St Francis Xavier       31  5  0 3337 2648 -1.217    5 -0.128    5 -0.331    2 -0.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 16.794    1  0.480    3 -0.678
Alberta                 23  7  0 2740 2325 -1.021    6 -0.250    6 -0.445    5 -0.395    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.349    3  0.305   10 -1.095
Manitoba                24  8  0 2638 2341 -1.103    7 -0.346    7 -0.509   12 -0.716    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.874   16 -0.600    6 -0.832
Lakehead                24  9  0 2763 2510 -1.079    8 -0.366    8 -0.533   13 -0.817    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.787   12 -0.410   16 -1.223
UBC                     21 10  0 2666 2445 -1.000    9 -0.471    9 -0.646   11 -0.694    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.458   10 -0.195   15 -1.194
Windsor                 19 10  0 2450 2282 -0.973   10 -0.477   10 -0.652   10 -0.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.410    8 -0.077   20 -1.299
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Winnipeg                23 11  0 2810 2596 -1.095   11 -0.506   11 -0.684   14 -0.826    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.292   14 -0.573    9 -1.078
Toronto Metro           19 11  0 2508 2328 -0.935   12 -0.509   12 -0.687    7 -0.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.350    7 -0.052   12 -1.148
Brock                   19 11  0 2385 2165 -0.934   13 -0.521   13 -0.701    8 -0.635    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.358   17 -0.631    2 -0.640
UQAM                    19 12  0 2438 2263 -0.984   14 -0.605   14 -0.784    9 -0.660    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.957   13 -0.545    5 -0.774
McMaster                18 13  0 2503 2374 -0.967   15 -0.645   15 -0.825   15 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.785   18 -0.635   11 -1.147
Laurier                 21 12  0 2676 2531 -1.197   16 -0.670   16 -0.853   17 -1.022    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.625   20 -0.719   21 -1.325
UPEI                    22 11  0 2636 2513 -1.326   17 -0.707   17 -0.870   23 -1.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.551   28 -1.063   19 -1.276
Toronto                 16 12  0 2221 2128 -1.053   18 -0.795   18 -0.946   16 -0.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.196   22 -0.759   13 -1.163
Brandon                 18 13  0 2724 2638 -1.155   19 -0.847   19 -0.978   18 -1.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.097    9 -0.093   33 -1.980
Laval                   16 11  0 2114 2118 -1.267   20 -0.903   20 -1.029   29 -1.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.818   30 -1.108   27 -1.767
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Trinity Western         15 10  0 2075 2054 -1.371   21 -0.943   21 -1.076   28 -1.385    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.637   23 -0.817   32 -1.952
Guelph                  15 13  0 2308 2274 -1.227   22 -0.975   22 -1.112   22 -1.136    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 13.579   15 -0.592   25 -1.680
Western ON              16 16  0 2864 2737 -1.122   23 -1.164   23 -1.200   19 -1.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 13.450    5  0.120   37 -2.267
Regina                  16 17  0 2640 2676 -1.194   24 -1.176   24 -1.213   26 -1.326    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.187   26 -0.989   23 -1.662
Bishop's                14 15  0 2279 2273 -1.178   25 -1.202   25 -1.231   20 -1.121    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.182   21 -0.745   22 -1.497
Dalhousie               20 15  0 2685 2578 -1.459   26 -1.259   26 -1.304   25 -1.321    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.945   38 -1.460   14 -1.182
Calgary                 16 15  0 2541 2536 -1.385   27 -1.288   27 -1.337   27 -1.366    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.747   24 -0.885   30 -1.848
McGill                   9 15  0 1729 1762 -1.107   28 -1.384   28 -1.434   21 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.519   35 -1.334    8 -0.922
Concordia QC            10 19  0 2106 2213 -1.116   29 -1.453   29 -1.514   24 -1.301    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.195   36 -1.346   17 -1.256
UNBC                    12 19  0 2478 2659 -1.375   30 -1.525   30 -1.600   33 -1.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.747   31 -1.144   36 -2.251
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Fraser Valley           10 16  0 2092 2282 -1.541   31 -1.657   31 -1.723   35 -1.769    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.201   27 -1.062   40 -2.475
UCCB                    13 20  0 2747 2876 -1.530   32 -1.683   32 -1.755   30 -1.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.240   19 -0.669   43 -2.513
Lethbridge U.            9 17  0 1968 2163 -1.480   33 -1.686   33 -1.759   39 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.155   40 -1.614   34 -2.219
York ON                  6 19  0 1809 2083 -1.232   34 -1.745   34 -1.830   32 -1.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.962   39 -1.522   31 -1.862
Memorial                10 17  0 2194 2357 -1.619   35 -1.774   36 -1.865   43 -2.021    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.890   34 -1.223   46 -2.820
St Mary's NS            11 18  0 2345 2544 -1.671   36 -1.785   35 -1.864   41 -1.981    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.847   29 -1.107   47 -2.855
Saskatchewan             9 17  0 2091 2197 -1.541   37 -1.806   37 -1.887   34 -1.699    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.855   33 -1.158   35 -2.240
Mount Royal              8 21  0 2313 2554 -1.451   38 -1.865   38 -1.959   38 -1.814    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.491   32 -1.150   42 -2.478
Nipissing                5 21  0 1942 2258 -1.278   39 -1.929   39 -2.041   40 -1.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.325   37 -1.446   41 -2.478
Thompson Rivers          7 20  0 1908 2147 -1.575   40 -1.997   40 -2.109   42 -2.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.931   45 -2.184   29 -1.842
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNB                     10 19  0 2222 2272 -1.755   41 -2.009   42 -2.124   37 -1.793    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.141   41 -1.756   28 -1.831
Waterloo                 8 25  0 2184 2550 -1.603   42 -2.018   41 -2.121   44 -2.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.835   47 -2.591   24 -1.675
UBC-Okanagan             8 19  0 2274 2355 -1.668   43 -2.050   43 -2.160   31 -1.674    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.994   25 -0.900   39 -2.448
Laurentian               5 24  0 2079 2450 -1.501   44 -2.205   44 -2.302   45 -2.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.336   44 -1.980   38 -2.374
Ontario Tech             4 22  0 1839 2096 -1.385   45 -2.221   45 -2.322   36 -1.783    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.376   42 -1.811   26 -1.754
Acadia                   8 21  0 2181 2482 -1.900   46 -2.254   46 -2.332   46 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.224   43 -1.952   44 -2.542
Algoma                   3 27  0 2048 2710 -1.577   47 -2.454   47 -2.566   47 -2.718    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.476   46 -2.450   48 -2.986
MacEwan                  1 24  0 1645 2145 -1.741   48 -2.740   48 -2.945   48 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.553   48 -2.824   45 -2.627


Atl U Sport: strength=-1.619 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       31  5  0 3337 2648 -1.217    5 -0.128    5 -0.331    2 -0.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 16.794    1  0.480    3 -0.678
UPEI                    22 11  0 2636 2513 -1.326   17 -0.707   17 -0.870   23 -1.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.551   28 -1.063   19 -1.276
Dalhousie               20 15  0 2685 2578 -1.459   26 -1.259   26 -1.304   25 -1.321    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.945   38 -1.460   14 -1.182
UCCB                    13 20  0 2747 2876 -1.530   32 -1.683   32 -1.755   30 -1.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.240   19 -0.669   43 -2.513
Memorial                10 17  0 2194 2357 -1.619   35 -1.774   36 -1.865   43 -2.021    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 10.890   34 -1.223   46 -2.820
St Mary's NS            11 18  0 2345 2544 -1.671   36 -1.785   35 -1.864   41 -1.981    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.847   29 -1.107   47 -2.855
UNB                     10 19  0 2222 2272 -1.755   41 -2.009   42 -2.124   37 -1.793    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.141   41 -1.756   28 -1.831
Acadia                   8 21  0 2181 2482 -1.900   46 -2.254   46 -2.332   46 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.224   43 -1.952   44 -2.542

Can W: strength=-1.390 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Victoria                25  6  0 2822 2444 -0.950    3 -0.063    3 -0.259    6 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 16.873    2  0.442   18 -1.272
Alberta                 23  7  0 2740 2325 -1.021    6 -0.250    6 -0.445    5 -0.395    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.349    3  0.305   10 -1.095
Manitoba                24  8  0 2638 2341 -1.103    7 -0.346    7 -0.509   12 -0.716    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.874   16 -0.600    6 -0.832
UBC                     21 10  0 2666 2445 -1.000    9 -0.471    9 -0.646   11 -0.694    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.458   10 -0.195   15 -1.194
Winnipeg                23 11  0 2810 2596 -1.095   11 -0.506   11 -0.684   14 -0.826    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.292   14 -0.573    9 -1.078
Brandon                 18 13  0 2724 2638 -1.155   19 -0.847   19 -0.978   18 -1.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.097    9 -0.093   33 -1.980
Trinity Western         15 10  0 2075 2054 -1.371   21 -0.943   21 -1.076   28 -1.385    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.637   23 -0.817   32 -1.952
Regina                  16 17  0 2640 2676 -1.194   24 -1.176   24 -1.213   26 -1.326    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.187   26 -0.989   23 -1.662
Calgary                 16 15  0 2541 2536 -1.385   27 -1.288   27 -1.337   27 -1.366    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.747   24 -0.885   30 -1.848
UNBC                    12 19  0 2478 2659 -1.375   30 -1.525   30 -1.600   33 -1.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.747   31 -1.144   36 -2.251
Fraser Valley           10 16  0 2092 2282 -1.541   31 -1.657   31 -1.723   35 -1.769    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.201   27 -1.062   40 -2.475
Lethbridge U.            9 17  0 1968 2163 -1.480   33 -1.686   33 -1.759   39 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.155   40 -1.614   34 -2.219
Saskatchewan             9 17  0 2091 2197 -1.541   37 -1.806   37 -1.887   34 -1.699    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 10.855   33 -1.158   35 -2.240
Mount Royal              8 21  0 2313 2554 -1.451   38 -1.865   38 -1.959   38 -1.814    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.491   32 -1.150   42 -2.478
Thompson Rivers          7 20  0 1908 2147 -1.575   40 -1.997   40 -2.109   42 -2.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.931   45 -2.184   29 -1.842
UBC-Okanagan             8 19  0 2274 2355 -1.668   43 -2.050   43 -2.160   31 -1.674    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  9.994   25 -0.900   39 -2.448
MacEwan                  1 24  0 1645 2145 -1.741   48 -2.740   48 -2.945   48 -2.725    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.553   48 -2.824   45 -2.627

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-1.109 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             28  5  0 2765 2442 -0.766    1  0.341    1  0.153    4 -0.328    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.225    6  0.043    4 -0.700
Ottawa ON               30  7  0 2940 2448 -0.753    2  0.143    2 -0.042    1 -0.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.792   11 -0.384    1  0.312
Queen's ON              27  8  0 3048 2585 -0.892    4 -0.108    4 -0.309    3 -0.310    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.764    4  0.242    7 -0.862
Lakehead                24  9  0 2763 2510 -1.079    8 -0.366    8 -0.533   13 -0.817    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.787   12 -0.410   16 -1.223
Windsor                 19 10  0 2450 2282 -0.973   10 -0.477   10 -0.652   10 -0.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.410    8 -0.077   20 -1.299
Toronto Metro           19 11  0 2508 2328 -0.935   12 -0.509   12 -0.687    7 -0.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.350    7 -0.052   12 -1.148
Brock                   19 11  0 2385 2165 -0.934   13 -0.521   13 -0.701    8 -0.635    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.358   17 -0.631    2 -0.640
McMaster                18 13  0 2503 2374 -0.967   15 -0.645   15 -0.825   15 -0.891    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.785   18 -0.635   11 -1.147
Laurier                 21 12  0 2676 2531 -1.197   16 -0.670   16 -0.853   17 -1.022    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.625   20 -0.719   21 -1.325
Toronto                 16 12  0 2221 2128 -1.053   18 -0.795   18 -0.946   16 -0.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.196   22 -0.759   13 -1.163
Guelph                  15 13  0 2308 2274 -1.227   22 -0.975   22 -1.112   22 -1.136    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 13.579   15 -0.592   25 -1.680
Western ON              16 16  0 2864 2737 -1.122   23 -1.164   23 -1.200   19 -1.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 13.450    5  0.120   37 -2.267
York ON                  6 19  0 1809 2083 -1.232   34 -1.745   34 -1.830   32 -1.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.962   39 -1.522   31 -1.862
Nipissing                5 21  0 1942 2258 -1.278   39 -1.929   39 -2.041   40 -1.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.325   37 -1.446   41 -2.478
Waterloo                 8 25  0 2184 2550 -1.603   42 -2.018   41 -2.121   44 -2.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.835   47 -2.591   24 -1.675
Laurentian               5 24  0 2079 2450 -1.501   44 -2.205   44 -2.302   45 -2.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.336   44 -1.980   38 -2.374
Ontario Tech             4 22  0 1839 2096 -1.385   45 -2.221   45 -2.322   36 -1.783    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.376   42 -1.811   26 -1.754
Algoma                   3 27  0 2048 2710 -1.577   47 -2.454   47 -2.566   47 -2.718    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.476   46 -2.450   48 -2.986

RSEQ: strength=-1.133 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UQAM                    19 12  0 2438 2263 -0.984   14 -0.605   14 -0.784    9 -0.660    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.957   13 -0.545    5 -0.774
Laval                   16 11  0 2114 2118 -1.267   20 -0.903   20 -1.029   29 -1.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.818   30 -1.108   27 -1.767
Bishop's                14 15  0 2279 2273 -1.178   25 -1.202   25 -1.231   20 -1.121    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.182   21 -0.745   22 -1.497
McGill                   9 15  0 1729 1762 -1.107   28 -1.384   28 -1.434   21 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.519   35 -1.334    8 -0.922
Concordia QC            10 19  0 2106 2213 -1.116   29 -1.453   29 -1.514   24 -1.301    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.195   36 -1.346   17 -1.256

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   283 265   0 0.516    1 -1.109
RSEQ             68  72   0 0.486    2 -1.133
Can W           245 250   0 0.495    3 -1.390
Atl U Sport     125 126   0 0.498    4 -1.619

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.030 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:49:18 2023

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