Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.005 49.184    1  1.138    1  0.261    5  0.187    1 0.5381  1.200  0.383 -0.008  0.000
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.038 48.798    2  1.118    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5345  1.033  0.228  0.250  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.034 52.272    3  1.114    3  0.240    3  0.198    3 0.5333  1.065  0.226  0.170  0.000
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.046 51.044    4  1.104    4  0.228    1  0.267    4 0.5323  1.064  0.293  0.242  0.000
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.017 53.718    5  1.076    5  0.207    6  0.139    5 0.5312  1.078  0.182  0.096  0.000
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.003 46.763    6  0.921    6  0.137    4  0.189    6 0.5211  1.024  0.168  0.211  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.007 44.250    7  0.886    7  0.131    9  0.110    7 0.5192  1.155  0.248 -0.028  0.000
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.013 46.477    8  0.793    9  0.095    8  0.112    9 0.5138  1.018  0.083  0.140  0.000
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.013 46.563    9  0.791    8  0.095   10  0.083    8 0.5154  1.177  0.250 -0.083  0.000
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.030 44.605   10  0.721   10  0.061   11  0.072   10 0.5090  1.029  0.056  0.088  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.009 41.486   11  0.718   11  0.061   15  0.006   11 0.5089  0.889 -0.169  0.181  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.011 43.817   12  0.687   12  0.046   17  0.001   12 0.5083  0.973 -0.080  0.081  0.000
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.007 43.243   13  0.681   13  0.039    7  0.121   13 0.5059  0.798 -0.152  0.394  0.000
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.029 40.220   14  0.674   14  0.035   16  0.003   14 0.5058  1.087  0.056 -0.051  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.028 45.079   15  0.667   15  0.031   12  0.068   15 0.5051  1.103  0.142 -0.006  0.000
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.009 41.413   16  0.652   16  0.020   14  0.034   17 0.5031  0.940 -0.085  0.153  0.000
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.008 43.467   17  0.648   17  0.019   18 -0.025   16 0.5044  1.049 -0.016 -0.033  0.000
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.004 43.267   18  0.647   18  0.018   13  0.050   18 0.5023  0.882 -0.133  0.233  0.000
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.015 43.743   19  0.605   19 -0.014   19 -0.037   19 0.4991  1.069 -0.005 -0.069  0.000
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.005 41.238   20  0.479   20 -0.086   22 -0.122   20 0.4870  0.972 -0.204 -0.039  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.003 41.333   21  0.433   21 -0.105   26 -0.157   21 0.4841  1.112 -0.072 -0.241  0.000
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.023 40.582   22  0.408   22 -0.117   20 -0.094   22 0.4834  1.031 -0.107 -0.081  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.022 40.693   23  0.354   23 -0.136   23 -0.147   23 0.4805  1.329  0.220 -0.514  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.014 41.818   24  0.317   24 -0.152   21 -0.095   25 0.4773  1.058 -0.075 -0.114  0.000
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.022 40.713   25  0.307   25 -0.155   25 -0.156   24 0.4776  1.081 -0.110 -0.203  0.000
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.001 41.498   26  0.211   26 -0.202   28 -0.179   26 0.4699  1.047 -0.173 -0.185  0.000
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.027 40.545   27  0.157   27 -0.239   24 -0.149   27 0.4651  0.962 -0.243 -0.056  0.000
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.002 41.518   28  0.154   28 -0.241   27 -0.169   28 0.4643  0.943 -0.284 -0.054  0.000
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.027 40.741   29  0.125   29 -0.261   29 -0.243   29 0.4622  0.962 -0.337 -0.150  0.000
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.026 40.871   30  0.099   30 -0.277   30 -0.308   30 0.4593  1.123 -0.209 -0.406  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.025 40.897   31  0.000   31 -0.335   31 -0.321   31 0.4505  0.995 -0.377 -0.266  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.034 52.272    3  1.114    3  0.240    3  0.198    3 0.5333  1.065  0.226  0.170  0.000
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.013 46.477    8  0.793    9  0.095    8  0.112    9 0.5138  1.018  0.083  0.140  0.000
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.007 43.243   13  0.681   13  0.039    7  0.121   13 0.5059  0.798 -0.152  0.394  0.000
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.004 43.267   18  0.647   18  0.018   13  0.050   18 0.5023  0.882 -0.133  0.233  0.000
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.005 41.238   20  0.479   20 -0.086   22 -0.122   20 0.4870  0.972 -0.204 -0.039  0.000
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.003 41.333   21  0.433   21 -0.105   26 -0.157   21 0.4841  1.112 -0.072 -0.241  0.000
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.001 41.498   26  0.211   26 -0.202   28 -0.179   26 0.4699  1.047 -0.173 -0.185  0.000
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.002 41.518   28  0.154   28 -0.241   27 -0.169   28 0.4643  0.943 -0.284 -0.054  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.038 48.798    2  1.118    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5345  1.033  0.228  0.250  0.000
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.046 51.044    4  1.104    4  0.228    1  0.267    4 0.5323  1.064  0.293  0.242  0.000
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.030 44.605   10  0.721   10  0.061   11  0.072   10 0.5090  1.029  0.056  0.088  0.000
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.009 41.486   11  0.718   11  0.061   15  0.006   11 0.5089  0.889 -0.169  0.181  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.028 45.079   15  0.667   15  0.031   12  0.068   15 0.5051  1.103  0.142 -0.006  0.000
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.009 41.413   16  0.652   16  0.020   14  0.034   17 0.5031  0.940 -0.085  0.153  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.014 41.818   24  0.317   24 -0.152   21 -0.095   25 0.4773  1.058 -0.075 -0.114  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.005 49.184    1  1.138    1  0.261    5  0.187    1 0.5381  1.200  0.383 -0.008  0.000
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.003 46.763    6  0.921    6  0.137    4  0.189    6 0.5211  1.024  0.168  0.211  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.007 44.250    7  0.886    7  0.131    9  0.110    7 0.5192  1.155  0.248 -0.028  0.000
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.029 40.220   14  0.674   14  0.035   16  0.003   14 0.5058  1.087  0.056 -0.051  0.000
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.027 40.545   27  0.157   27 -0.239   24 -0.149   27 0.4651  0.962 -0.243 -0.056  0.000
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.027 40.741   29  0.125   29 -0.261   29 -0.243   29 0.4622  0.962 -0.337 -0.150  0.000
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.026 40.871   30  0.099   30 -0.277   30 -0.308   30 0.4593  1.123 -0.209 -0.406  0.000
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.025 40.897   31  0.000   31 -0.335   31 -0.321   31 0.4505  0.995 -0.377 -0.266  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.017 53.718    5  1.076    5  0.207    6  0.139    5 0.5312  1.078  0.182  0.096  0.000
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.013 46.563    9  0.791    8  0.095   10  0.083    8 0.5154  1.177  0.250 -0.083  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.011 43.817   12  0.687   12  0.046   17  0.001   12 0.5083  0.973 -0.080  0.081  0.000
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.008 43.467   17  0.648   17  0.019   18 -0.025   16 0.5044  1.049 -0.016 -0.033  0.000
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.015 43.743   19  0.605   19 -0.014   19 -0.037   19 0.4991  1.069 -0.005 -0.069  0.000
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.023 40.582   22  0.408   22 -0.117   20 -0.094   22 0.4834  1.031 -0.107 -0.081  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.022 40.693   23  0.354   23 -0.136   23 -0.147   23 0.4805  1.329  0.220 -0.514  0.000
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.022 40.713   25  0.307   25 -0.155   25 -0.156   24 0.4776  1.081 -0.110 -0.203  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      331 284 0.538    1  0.115
PACIFIC DIVISION      337 357 0.486    2 -0.023
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 359 350 0.506    3 -0.038
ATLANTIC DIVISION     328 364 0.474    4 -0.089

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.119 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jun  8 05:30:24 2018
games through: Thu Jun  7 2018

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