Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      44 15 232 159 -0.008 29.129    1  0.768    1  0.268    1  0.256    1 0.5585  1.223  0.449  0.062  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    36 22 206 164  0.001 29.008    2  0.527    2  0.131    4  0.131    2 0.5289  1.185  0.276 -0.014  0.000
FLAMES         35 23 212 174  0.014 29.322    3  0.494    3  0.119    2  0.145    3 0.5256  1.253  0.378 -0.087  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 23 169 138  0.006 29.128    4  0.485    4  0.115    3  0.133    4 0.5249  0.767 -0.204  0.470  0.000
JETS           36 23 202 171 -0.032 28.829    5  0.464    5  0.108   10  0.069    5 0.5225  1.146  0.164 -0.026  0.000
SHARKS         35 24 214 184 -0.011 29.235    6  0.439    6  0.096    5  0.110    6 0.5221  1.301  0.406 -0.186  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   33 24 185 172 -0.020 28.191    7  0.389    7  0.075   13  0.027    7 0.5176  1.140  0.115 -0.061  0.000
BRUINS         34 25 175 150 -0.025 28.940    8  0.382    8  0.072    7  0.101    8 0.5160  0.852 -0.146  0.349  0.000
PREDATORS      34 27 186 160  0.000 30.536    9  0.366    9  0.064    6  0.107    9 0.5133  0.949 -0.033  0.247  0.000
CAPITALS       32 27 199 189 -0.011 29.398   10  0.325   10  0.042   12  0.031   10 0.5088  1.229  0.233 -0.170  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUES          31 27 174 162  0.007 29.251   11  0.324   11  0.040    9  0.072   11 0.5085  0.995 -0.015  0.159  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 32 28 180 169 -0.011 29.876   12  0.311   12  0.032   11  0.040   12 0.5071  1.000 -0.042  0.122  0.000
PENGUINS       31 28 206 184  0.006 29.662   13  0.309   13  0.029    8  0.099   13 0.5068  1.242  0.318 -0.119  0.000
CANADIENS      31 28 176 174 -0.000 29.716   14  0.305   14  0.028   15  0.004   15 0.5058  1.013 -0.062  0.070  0.000
HURRICANES     31 28 173 165 -0.001 29.638   15  0.303   15  0.026   14  0.018   14 0.5063  0.957 -0.113  0.150  0.000
STARS          29 29 145 149  0.014 29.538   16  0.278   16  0.007   17 -0.003   16 0.5015  0.721 -0.387  0.381  0.000
SABRES         28 30 168 181 -0.003 29.228   17  0.244   17 -0.019   18 -0.055   17 0.4968  1.028 -0.103 -0.006  0.000
FLYERS         28 31 176 196 -0.019 29.395   18  0.219   18 -0.036   26 -0.093   18 0.4920  1.137 -0.010 -0.176  0.000
COYOTES        26 32 152 167  0.007 29.464   19  0.193   19 -0.053   22 -0.071   20 0.4883  0.889 -0.279  0.136  0.000
WILD           27 32 164 176 -0.022 29.291   20  0.190   20 -0.056   19 -0.063   21 0.4871  0.980 -0.168  0.042  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PANTHERS       25 32 177 197  0.019 29.244   21  0.183   21 -0.058   20 -0.063   19 0.4884  1.168  0.059 -0.186  0.000
CANUCKS        26 34 170 188  0.015 30.707   22  0.171   22 -0.066   23 -0.080   22 0.4853  1.012 -0.148 -0.012  0.000
RANGERS        25 33 170 194  0.007 29.500   23  0.159   23 -0.072   25 -0.086   23 0.4851  1.122 -0.021 -0.150  0.000
OILERS         24 34 163 195  0.006 29.509   24  0.116   24 -0.091   28 -0.115   24 0.4795  1.094 -0.084 -0.145  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     24 35 192 216  0.015 30.177   25  0.109   25 -0.096   21 -0.069   25 0.4787  1.317  0.249 -0.386  0.000
AVALANCHE      23 35 186 192  0.025 29.774   26  0.094   26 -0.103   16  0.002   26 0.4770  1.221  0.192 -0.188  0.000
KINGS          23 35 141 179  0.001 29.436   27  0.056   27 -0.113   30 -0.134   28 0.4743  0.861 -0.372  0.104  0.000
DEVILS         23 36 173 204  0.018 30.275   28  0.054   28 -0.115   24 -0.084   27 0.4763  1.173  0.045 -0.214  0.000
DUCKS          23 36 133 187  0.003 30.120   29  0.038   29 -0.118   31 -0.207   29 0.4743  0.809 -0.501  0.087  0.000
RED WINGS      23 37 168 199 -0.004 30.290   30  0.010   30 -0.131   29 -0.116   30 0.4725  1.056 -0.132 -0.100  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SENATORS       22 36 179 211 -0.010 29.139   31  0.000   31 -0.135   27 -0.114   31 0.4699  1.299  0.181 -0.408  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FLAMES         35 23 212 174  0.014 29.322    3  0.494    3  0.119    2  0.145    3 0.5256  1.253  0.378 -0.087  0.000
SHARKS         35 24 214 184 -0.011 29.235    6  0.439    6  0.096    5  0.110    6 0.5221  1.301  0.406 -0.186  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 32 28 180 169 -0.011 29.876   12  0.311   12  0.032   11  0.040   12 0.5071  1.000 -0.042  0.122  0.000
COYOTES        26 32 152 167  0.007 29.464   19  0.193   19 -0.053   22 -0.071   20 0.4883  0.889 -0.279  0.136  0.000
CANUCKS        26 34 170 188  0.015 30.707   22  0.171   22 -0.066   23 -0.080   22 0.4853  1.012 -0.148 -0.012  0.000
OILERS         24 34 163 195  0.006 29.509   24  0.116   24 -0.091   28 -0.115   24 0.4795  1.094 -0.084 -0.145  0.000
KINGS          23 35 141 179  0.001 29.436   27  0.056   27 -0.113   30 -0.134   28 0.4743  0.861 -0.372  0.104  0.000
DUCKS          23 36 133 187  0.003 30.120   29  0.038   29 -0.118   31 -0.207   29 0.4743  0.809 -0.501  0.087  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JETS           36 23 202 171 -0.032 28.829    5  0.464    5  0.108   10  0.069    5 0.5225  1.146  0.164 -0.026  0.000
PREDATORS      34 27 186 160  0.000 30.536    9  0.366    9  0.064    6  0.107    9 0.5133  0.949 -0.033  0.247  0.000
BLUES          31 27 174 162  0.007 29.251   11  0.324   11  0.040    9  0.072   11 0.5085  0.995 -0.015  0.159  0.000
STARS          29 29 145 149  0.014 29.538   16  0.278   16  0.007   17 -0.003   16 0.5015  0.721 -0.387  0.381  0.000
WILD           27 32 164 176 -0.022 29.291   20  0.190   20 -0.056   19 -0.063   21 0.4871  0.980 -0.168  0.042  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     24 35 192 216  0.015 30.177   25  0.109   25 -0.096   21 -0.069   25 0.4787  1.317  0.249 -0.386  0.000
AVALANCHE      23 35 186 192  0.025 29.774   26  0.094   26 -0.103   16  0.002   26 0.4770  1.221  0.192 -0.188  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      44 15 232 159 -0.008 29.129    1  0.768    1  0.268    1  0.256    1 0.5585  1.223  0.449  0.062  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    36 22 206 164  0.001 29.008    2  0.527    2  0.131    4  0.131    2 0.5289  1.185  0.276 -0.014  0.000
BRUINS         34 25 175 150 -0.025 28.940    8  0.382    8  0.072    7  0.101    8 0.5160  0.852 -0.146  0.349  0.000
CANADIENS      31 28 176 174 -0.000 29.716   14  0.305   14  0.028   15  0.004   15 0.5058  1.013 -0.062  0.070  0.000
SABRES         28 30 168 181 -0.003 29.228   17  0.244   17 -0.019   18 -0.055   17 0.4968  1.028 -0.103 -0.006  0.000
PANTHERS       25 32 177 197  0.019 29.244   21  0.183   21 -0.058   20 -0.063   19 0.4884  1.168  0.059 -0.186  0.000
RED WINGS      23 37 168 199 -0.004 30.290   30  0.010   30 -0.131   29 -0.116   30 0.4725  1.056 -0.132 -0.100  0.000
SENATORS       22 36 179 211 -0.010 29.139   31  0.000   31 -0.135   27 -0.114   31 0.4699  1.299  0.181 -0.408  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS      35 23 169 138  0.006 29.128    4  0.485    4  0.115    3  0.133    4 0.5249  0.767 -0.204  0.470  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   33 24 185 172 -0.020 28.191    7  0.389    7  0.075   13  0.027    7 0.5176  1.140  0.115 -0.061  0.000
CAPITALS       32 27 199 189 -0.011 29.398   10  0.325   10  0.042   12  0.031   10 0.5088  1.229  0.233 -0.170  0.000
PENGUINS       31 28 206 184  0.006 29.662   13  0.309   13  0.029    8  0.099   13 0.5068  1.242  0.318 -0.119  0.000
HURRICANES     31 28 173 165 -0.001 29.638   15  0.303   15  0.026   14  0.018   14 0.5063  0.957 -0.113  0.150  0.000
FLYERS         28 31 176 196 -0.019 29.395   18  0.219   18 -0.036   26 -0.093   18 0.4920  1.137 -0.010 -0.176  0.000
RANGERS        25 33 170 194  0.007 29.500   23  0.159   23 -0.072   25 -0.086   23 0.4851  1.122 -0.021 -0.150  0.000
DEVILS         23 36 173 204  0.018 30.275   28  0.054   28 -0.115   24 -0.084   27 0.4763  1.173  0.045 -0.214  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     243 225 0.519    1  0.032
CENTRAL DIVISION      204 208 0.495    2  0.030
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 238 230 0.509    3  0.011
PACIFIC DIVISION      224 246 0.477    4 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.127 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb 18 05:30:43 2019
games through: Sun Feb 17 2019

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