Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DEVILS         6 1 31 21  0.073  3.657    1  0.350    1  0.065    7  0.033    3 0.5543  1.339  0.378 -0.312  0.000 P
LIGHTNING      6 2 29 23  0.132  4.356    2  0.344    3  0.062    1  0.061    1 0.5660  1.090  0.084  0.039  0.000 P
BLUES          6 2 27 21  0.122  4.331    3  0.340    2  0.063    4  0.052    2 0.5554  1.013 -0.018  0.121  0.000 P
MAPLE LEAFS    6 1 34 22  0.001  3.429    4  0.338    4  0.062    5  0.049    4 0.5542  1.478  0.590 -0.492  0.000 P
BLUE JACKETS   5 2 21 15  0.080  3.676    5  0.304    5  0.042    6  0.034    5 0.5380  0.740 -0.334  0.402  0.000 P
KINGS          5 1 21 10 -0.178  2.464    6  0.303    6  0.038    2  0.061    6 0.5326  0.831 -0.212  0.335  0.000 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 5 1 20 15 -0.288  2.291    7  0.284    8  0.026   22 -0.029    9 0.5167  0.880 -0.249  0.191  0.000 P
PENGUINS       4 3 25 29  0.163  3.930    8  0.282    7  0.026    9  0.030    7 0.5305  1.453  0.536 -0.475  0.000 P
PREDATORS      4 3 19 17  0.115  3.785    9  0.267    9  0.018    8  0.031    8 0.5203  0.753 -0.324  0.386  0.000 P
FLYERS         4 3 26 17  0.088  3.705   10  0.244   10  0.012   10  0.030   11 0.5132  1.200  0.190 -0.130  0.000 P
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED WINGS      4 3 23 21  0.068  3.678   11  0.242   11  0.011   14  0.002   10 0.5140  1.074  0.005 -0.001  0.000 P
BLACKHAWKS     4 4 28 20  0.062  4.107   12  0.233   14  0.001    3  0.058   14 0.5091  0.973 -0.058  0.175  0.000 P
HURRICANES     3 2 14 12 -0.023  2.449   13  0.231   12  0.003   15 -0.014   15 0.5091  0.765 -0.357  0.329  0.000 P
FLAMES         4 3 18 19 -0.059  3.345   14  0.223   13  0.002   23 -0.035   17 0.5015  0.975 -0.149  0.079  0.000 P
STARS          4 3 19 18 -0.124  3.136   15  0.218   15 -0.002   17 -0.016   16 0.5024  0.933 -0.178  0.146  0.000 P
CAPITALS       3 4 23 24  0.144  3.872   16  0.215   16 -0.003   11  0.027   13 0.5094  1.117  0.082 -0.029  0.000 P
PANTHERS       2 3 17 20  0.251  3.029   17  0.205   17 -0.009   16 -0.016   12 0.5098  1.341  0.331 -0.363  0.000 P
JETS           3 3 18 23 -0.044  2.904   18  0.203   18 -0.010   24 -0.036   18 0.5010  1.363  0.342 -0.415  0.000 P
AVALANCHE      4 4 23 21  0.027  4.090   19  0.202   19 -0.010   19 -0.019   19 0.4968  0.962 -0.148  0.109  0.000 P
BRUINS         3 3 20 21 -0.137  2.658   20  0.191   20 -0.012   20 -0.022   20 0.4929  1.376  0.374 -0.417  0.000 P
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS      3 4 19 21  0.031  3.595   21  0.181   21 -0.017   18 -0.017   22 0.4851  1.035 -0.062  0.027  0.000 P
WILD           1 3 15 16  0.179  2.279   22  0.174   22 -0.023   13  0.021   21 0.4853  1.484  0.572 -0.529  0.000 P
SHARKS         2 3 13 16 -0.171  2.153   23  0.171   23 -0.026   21 -0.025   24 0.4738  1.093  0.000 -0.051  0.000 P
SENATORS       3 4 24 18 -0.070  3.248   24  0.170   24 -0.026   12  0.024   23 0.4833  0.970 -0.096  0.143  0.000 P
OILERS         2 4 13 20 -0.077  2.852   25  0.135   25 -0.041   28 -0.060   25 0.4643  0.987 -0.160  0.039  0.000 P
DUCKS          2 4 12 17 -0.241  2.438   26  0.126   27 -0.047   26 -0.054   27 0.4568  0.706 -0.456  0.349  0.000 P
CANUCKS        2 4 15 20 -0.107  2.768   27  0.125   26 -0.046   27 -0.056   26 0.4577  1.006 -0.134  0.022  0.000 P
CANADIENS      1 6 11 27  0.066  3.790   28  0.090   28 -0.068   30 -0.096   29 0.4404  0.809 -0.392  0.201  0.000 P
SABRES         1 6 18 28 -0.045  3.460   29  0.058   29 -0.085   29 -0.083   30 0.4321  1.267  0.165 -0.331  0.000 P
RANGERS        1 7 20 30  0.002  4.042   30  0.057   30 -0.085   25 -0.037   28 0.4468  1.075 -0.033 -0.041  0.000 P
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COYOTES        0 7 16 30 -0.133  3.212   31  0.000   31 -0.119   31 -0.128   31 0.4078  1.290  0.150 -0.406  0.000 P

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KINGS          5 1 21 10 -0.178  2.464    6  0.303    6  0.038    2  0.061    6 0.5326  0.831 -0.212  0.335  0.000 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 5 1 20 15 -0.288  2.291    7  0.284    8  0.026   22 -0.029    9 0.5167  0.880 -0.249  0.191  0.000 P
FLAMES         4 3 18 19 -0.059  3.345   14  0.223   13  0.002   23 -0.035   17 0.5015  0.975 -0.149  0.079  0.000 P
SHARKS         2 3 13 16 -0.171  2.153   23  0.171   23 -0.026   21 -0.025   24 0.4738  1.093  0.000 -0.051  0.000 P
OILERS         2 4 13 20 -0.077  2.852   25  0.135   25 -0.041   28 -0.060   25 0.4643  0.987 -0.160  0.039  0.000 P
DUCKS          2 4 12 17 -0.241  2.438   26  0.126   27 -0.047   26 -0.054   27 0.4568  0.706 -0.456  0.349  0.000 P
CANUCKS        2 4 15 20 -0.107  2.768   27  0.125   26 -0.046   27 -0.056   26 0.4577  1.006 -0.134  0.022  0.000 P
COYOTES        0 7 16 30 -0.133  3.212   31  0.000   31 -0.119   31 -0.128   31 0.4078  1.290  0.150 -0.406  0.000 P

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUES          6 2 27 21  0.122  4.331    3  0.340    2  0.063    4  0.052    2 0.5554  1.013 -0.018  0.121  0.000 P
PREDATORS      4 3 19 17  0.115  3.785    9  0.267    9  0.018    8  0.031    8 0.5203  0.753 -0.324  0.386  0.000 P
BLACKHAWKS     4 4 28 20  0.062  4.107   12  0.233   14  0.001    3  0.058   14 0.5091  0.973 -0.058  0.175  0.000 P
STARS          4 3 19 18 -0.124  3.136   15  0.218   15 -0.002   17 -0.016   16 0.5024  0.933 -0.178  0.146  0.000 P
JETS           3 3 18 23 -0.044  2.904   18  0.203   18 -0.010   24 -0.036   18 0.5010  1.363  0.342 -0.415  0.000 P
AVALANCHE      4 4 23 21  0.027  4.090   19  0.202   19 -0.010   19 -0.019   19 0.4968  0.962 -0.148  0.109  0.000 P
WILD           1 3 15 16  0.179  2.279   22  0.174   22 -0.023   13  0.021   21 0.4853  1.484  0.572 -0.529  0.000 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      6 2 29 23  0.132  4.356    2  0.344    3  0.062    1  0.061    1 0.5660  1.090  0.084  0.039  0.000 P
MAPLE LEAFS    6 1 34 22  0.001  3.429    4  0.338    4  0.062    5  0.049    4 0.5542  1.478  0.590 -0.492  0.000 P
RED WINGS      4 3 23 21  0.068  3.678   11  0.242   11  0.011   14  0.002   10 0.5140  1.074  0.005 -0.001  0.000 P
PANTHERS       2 3 17 20  0.251  3.029   17  0.205   17 -0.009   16 -0.016   12 0.5098  1.341  0.331 -0.363  0.000 P
BRUINS         3 3 20 21 -0.137  2.658   20  0.191   20 -0.012   20 -0.022   20 0.4929  1.376  0.374 -0.417  0.000 P
SENATORS       3 4 24 18 -0.070  3.248   24  0.170   24 -0.026   12  0.024   23 0.4833  0.970 -0.096  0.143  0.000 P
CANADIENS      1 6 11 27  0.066  3.790   28  0.090   28 -0.068   30 -0.096   29 0.4404  0.809 -0.392  0.201  0.000 P
SABRES         1 6 18 28 -0.045  3.460   29  0.058   29 -0.085   29 -0.083   30 0.4321  1.267  0.165 -0.331  0.000 P

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DEVILS         6 1 31 21  0.073  3.657    1  0.350    1  0.065    7  0.033    3 0.5543  1.339  0.378 -0.312  0.000 P
BLUE JACKETS   5 2 21 15  0.080  3.676    5  0.304    5  0.042    6  0.034    5 0.5380  0.740 -0.334  0.402  0.000 P
PENGUINS       4 3 25 29  0.163  3.930    8  0.282    7  0.026    9  0.030    7 0.5305  1.453  0.536 -0.475  0.000 P
FLYERS         4 3 26 17  0.088  3.705   10  0.244   10  0.012   10  0.030   11 0.5132  1.200  0.190 -0.130  0.000 P
HURRICANES     3 2 14 12 -0.023  2.449   13  0.231   12  0.003   15 -0.014   15 0.5091  0.765 -0.357  0.329  0.000 P
CAPITALS       3 4 23 24  0.144  3.872   16  0.215   16 -0.003   11  0.027   13 0.5094  1.117  0.082 -0.029  0.000 P
ISLANDERS      3 4 19 21  0.031  3.595   21  0.181   21 -0.017   18 -0.017   22 0.4851  1.035 -0.062  0.027  0.000 P
RANGERS        1 7 20 30  0.002  4.042   30  0.057   30 -0.085   25 -0.037   28 0.4468  1.075 -0.033 -0.041  0.000 P

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      26 22 0.542    1  0.092
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 29 26 0.527    2  0.083
ATLANTIC DIVISION     26 28 0.481    3 -0.018
PACIFIC DIVISION      22 27 0.449    4 -0.170

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.110 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Oct 20 05:30:32 2017
games through: Thu Oct 19 2017

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