Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY RANGERS   60 38 260 216 -0.014 48.735    1  0.671    1  0.135    7  0.108    1 0.5272  0.676 -0.174  0.391  0.000
PITTSBURGH   53 35 308 251 -0.005 44.014    2  0.629    2  0.121    2  0.140    2 0.5260  1.254  0.519 -0.240  0.000
NEW JERSEY   57 39 267 242  0.000 48.351    3  0.597    3  0.117   11  0.054    3 0.5241  0.861 -0.037  0.145  0.000
VANCOUVER    52 35 257 210 -0.009 43.373    4  0.587    4  0.113    4  0.121    4 0.5215  0.950  0.129  0.113  0.000
ST. LOUIS    53 38 229 188  0.009 46.006    5  0.567    5  0.106    1  0.155    5 0.5199  0.613 -0.189  0.499  0.000
NASHVILLE    53 39 259 231  0.020 46.959    6  0.550    6  0.102    8  0.104    6 0.5192  0.956  0.118  0.090  0.000
BOSTON       52 37 284 218 -0.027 43.755    7  0.510    7  0.088    3  0.130    7 0.5180  1.013  0.210  0.050  0.000
DETROIT      49 38 257 216  0.015 44.208    8  0.494    8  0.081    6  0.117    9 0.5163  0.981  0.160  0.074  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 52 41 305 276  0.014 47.302    9  0.480    9  0.078    9  0.080    8 0.5177  1.211  0.404 -0.245  0.000
LOS ANGELES  50 43 229 195  0.028 47.779   10  0.442   10  0.058    5  0.119   10 0.5112  0.611 -0.227  0.464  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      47 41 260 255  0.014 44.886   11  0.422   11  0.046   13  0.006   11 0.5086  1.127  0.224 -0.212  0.000
PHOENIX      50 45 247 233  0.014 48.378   12  0.415   12  0.037   10  0.057   12 0.5074  0.799 -0.100  0.214  0.000
SAN JOSE     44 43 236 223  0.019 44.512   13  0.395   15  0.013   12  0.031   15 0.5023  0.927  0.013  0.050  0.000
DALLAS       42 40 211 222  0.009 41.735   14  0.394   14  0.015   16 -0.035   14 0.5028  0.945 -0.032 -0.037  0.000
WASHINGTON   49 47 251 260  0.010 48.859   15  0.393   13  0.016   15 -0.007   13 0.5043  0.886 -0.071  0.057  0.000
COLORADO     41 41 208 220 -0.002 41.431   16  0.377   16 -0.005   19 -0.065   16 0.4990  0.882 -0.134  0.004  0.000
OTTAWA       44 45 262 254 -0.002 44.828   17  0.373   17 -0.012   14  0.006   17 0.4989  1.079  0.165 -0.154  0.000
BUFFALO      39 43 218 230 -0.017 40.897   18  0.341   18 -0.040   17 -0.042   18 0.4920  0.909 -0.081 -0.003  0.000
FLORIDA      41 48 220 245 -0.018 44.386   19  0.313   20 -0.062   20 -0.069   19 0.4904  0.816 -0.209  0.071  0.000
TAMPA BAY    38 44 235 281 -0.018 40.990   20  0.311   19 -0.057   27 -0.141   20 0.4892  1.232  0.210 -0.492  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CALGARY      37 45 202 226 -0.007 41.274   21  0.298   21 -0.065   21 -0.071   21 0.4867  0.885 -0.136 -0.006  0.000
WINNIPEG     37 45 225 246 -0.027 40.608   22  0.276   22 -0.075   23 -0.078   22 0.4863  1.037  0.030 -0.186  0.000
MINNESOTA    35 47 177 226 -0.003 41.531   23  0.229   23 -0.092   28 -0.158   23 0.4811  0.734 -0.383  0.066  0.000
TORONTO      35 47 231 264 -0.011 41.179   24  0.221   24 -0.095   26 -0.099   24 0.4809  1.148  0.145 -0.343  0.000
ANAHEIM      34 48 204 231  0.011 41.864   25  0.207   25 -0.100   22 -0.074   26 0.4796  0.956 -0.060 -0.089  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 203 255  0.003 41.701   26  0.193   26 -0.104   30 -0.160   25 0.4808  0.963 -0.138 -0.182  0.000
CAROLINA     33 49 213 243 -0.020 40.840   27  0.121   27 -0.129   24 -0.078   27 0.4753  0.974 -0.043 -0.113  0.000
EDMONTON     32 50 212 239 -0.005 41.360   28  0.094   28 -0.136   25 -0.092   28 0.4725  1.023 -0.000 -0.184  0.000
MONTREAL     31 51 212 226 -0.014 41.042   29  0.041   29 -0.154   18 -0.064   29 0.4695  0.864 -0.152  0.024  0.000
COLUMBUS     29 53 202 262  0.021 42.339   30  0.000   30 -0.169   29 -0.158   30 0.4661  1.085  0.008 -0.325  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES  50 43 229 195  0.028 47.779   10  0.442   10  0.058    5  0.119   10 0.5112  0.611 -0.227  0.464  0.000
PHOENIX      50 45 247 233  0.014 48.378   12  0.415   12  0.037   10  0.057   12 0.5074  0.799 -0.100  0.214  0.000
SAN JOSE     44 43 236 223  0.019 44.512   13  0.395   15  0.013   12  0.031   15 0.5023  0.927  0.013  0.050  0.000
DALLAS       42 40 211 222  0.009 41.735   14  0.394   14  0.015   16 -0.035   14 0.5028  0.945 -0.032 -0.037  0.000
ANAHEIM      34 48 204 231  0.011 41.864   25  0.207   25 -0.100   22 -0.074   26 0.4796  0.956 -0.060 -0.089  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    52 35 257 210 -0.009 43.373    4  0.587    4  0.113    4  0.121    4 0.5215  0.950  0.129  0.113  0.000
COLORADO     41 41 208 220 -0.002 41.431   16  0.377   16 -0.005   19 -0.065   16 0.4990  0.882 -0.134  0.004  0.000
CALGARY      37 45 202 226 -0.007 41.274   21  0.298   21 -0.065   21 -0.071   21 0.4867  0.885 -0.136 -0.006  0.000
MINNESOTA    35 47 177 226 -0.003 41.531   23  0.229   23 -0.092   28 -0.158   23 0.4811  0.734 -0.383  0.066  0.000
EDMONTON     32 50 212 239 -0.005 41.360   28  0.094   28 -0.136   25 -0.092   28 0.4725  1.023 -0.000 -0.184  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS    53 38 229 188  0.009 46.006    5  0.567    5  0.106    1  0.155    5 0.5199  0.613 -0.189  0.499  0.000
NASHVILLE    53 39 259 231  0.020 46.959    6  0.550    6  0.102    8  0.104    6 0.5192  0.956  0.118  0.090  0.000
DETROIT      49 38 257 216  0.015 44.208    8  0.494    8  0.081    6  0.117    9 0.5163  0.981  0.160  0.074  0.000
CHICAGO      47 41 260 255  0.014 44.886   11  0.422   11  0.046   13  0.006   11 0.5086  1.127  0.224 -0.212  0.000
COLUMBUS     29 53 202 262  0.021 42.339   30  0.000   30 -0.169   29 -0.158   30 0.4661  1.085  0.008 -0.325  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   49 47 251 260  0.010 48.859   15  0.393   13  0.016   15 -0.007   13 0.5043  0.886 -0.071  0.057  0.000
FLORIDA      41 48 220 245 -0.018 44.386   19  0.313   20 -0.062   20 -0.069   19 0.4904  0.816 -0.209  0.071  0.000
TAMPA BAY    38 44 235 281 -0.018 40.990   20  0.311   19 -0.057   27 -0.141   20 0.4892  1.232  0.210 -0.492  0.000
WINNIPEG     37 45 225 246 -0.027 40.608   22  0.276   22 -0.075   23 -0.078   22 0.4863  1.037  0.030 -0.186  0.000
CAROLINA     33 49 213 243 -0.020 40.840   27  0.121   27 -0.129   24 -0.078   27 0.4753  0.974 -0.043 -0.113  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON       52 37 284 218 -0.027 43.755    7  0.510    7  0.088    3  0.130    7 0.5180  1.013  0.210  0.050  0.000
OTTAWA       44 45 262 254 -0.002 44.828   17  0.373   17 -0.012   14  0.006   17 0.4989  1.079  0.165 -0.154  0.000
BUFFALO      39 43 218 230 -0.017 40.897   18  0.341   18 -0.040   17 -0.042   18 0.4920  0.909 -0.081 -0.003  0.000
TORONTO      35 47 231 264 -0.011 41.179   24  0.221   24 -0.095   26 -0.099   24 0.4809  1.148  0.145 -0.343  0.000
MONTREAL     31 51 212 226 -0.014 41.042   29  0.041   29 -0.154   18 -0.064   29 0.4695  0.864 -0.152  0.024  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY RANGERS   60 38 260 216 -0.014 48.735    1  0.671    1  0.135    7  0.108    1 0.5272  0.676 -0.174  0.391  0.000
PITTSBURGH   53 35 308 251 -0.005 44.014    2  0.629    2  0.121    2  0.140    2 0.5260  1.254  0.519 -0.240  0.000
NEW JERSEY   57 39 267 242  0.000 48.351    3  0.597    3  0.117   11  0.054    3 0.5241  0.861 -0.037  0.145  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 52 41 305 276  0.014 47.302    9  0.480    9  0.078    9  0.080    8 0.5177  1.211  0.404 -0.245  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 203 255  0.003 41.701   26  0.193   26 -0.104   30 -0.160   25 0.4808  0.963 -0.138 -0.182  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   231 209 0.525    1  0.078
ATLANTIC DIVISION  256 201 0.560    2  0.076
PACIFIC DIVISION   220 219 0.501    3  0.035
NORTHEAST DIVISION 201 223 0.474    4 -0.021
NORTHWEST DIVISION 197 218 0.475    5 -0.088
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 198 233 0.459    6 -0.122

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May 17 05:30:10 2012
games through: Wed May 16 2012

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