Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241  0.002 42.495    1  1.029    1  0.331    1  0.275    1 0.5537  1.262  0.535  0.014  0.000
ISLANDERS      52 34 242 202  0.003 42.773    2  0.774    2  0.156    4  0.142    2 0.5253  0.722 -0.224  0.509  0.000
BRUINS         53 36 282 232  0.003 44.202    3  0.746    4  0.143    2  0.181    4 0.5237  0.939  0.046  0.317  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   51 35 277 240  0.016 43.211    4  0.742    3  0.144    5  0.119    3 0.5247  1.065  0.131  0.108  0.000
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.015 42.640    5  0.672    5  0.118    3  0.156    6 0.5186  1.164  0.290  0.022  0.000
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270  0.005 44.400    6  0.652    6  0.112    8  0.093    5 0.5187  1.190  0.261 -0.074  0.000
HURRICANES     50 39 266 243  0.010 44.625    7  0.607    7  0.096   14  0.073    7 0.5164  0.948 -0.052  0.198  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.019 44.914    8  0.580    8  0.086    9  0.081    9 0.5139  1.233  0.304 -0.142  0.000
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232  0.003 43.857    9  0.579    9  0.085   13  0.075   10 0.5138  0.920 -0.082  0.231  0.000
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.004 43.925   10  0.578   10  0.085   15  0.059   11 0.5137  1.169  0.200 -0.081  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SHARKS         50 39 312 286 -0.010 43.899   11  0.577   11  0.084   10  0.078   12 0.5133  1.306  0.398 -0.242  0.000
BLUES          49 39 263 239  0.000 43.742   12  0.573   12  0.082    7  0.095    8 0.5139  0.954 -0.023  0.214  0.000
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.002 40.747   13  0.512   14  0.049   17  0.038   13 0.5086  1.022 -0.001  0.078  0.000
STARS          47 41 228 214  0.002 43.865   14  0.511   13  0.051   16  0.055   14 0.5085  0.713 -0.320  0.430  0.000
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255  0.007 42.979   15  0.470   15  0.018    6  0.097   15 0.5040  1.139  0.199 -0.005  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.008 43.977   16  0.469   16  0.018   11  0.076   16 0.5034  1.026  0.041  0.110  0.000
AVALANCHE      42 45 277 257  0.009 43.568   17  0.423   17 -0.023   12  0.076   17 0.4964  1.092  0.121  0.031  0.000
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.017 40.425   18  0.381   18 -0.048   19 -0.056   18 0.4924  0.814 -0.327  0.216  0.000
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.000 41.065   19  0.335   20 -0.072   21 -0.106   20 0.4880  0.896 -0.289  0.078  0.000
FLYERS         37 45 244 281  0.002 41.190   20  0.333   19 -0.072   23 -0.135   19 0.4885  1.187  0.028 -0.298  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.000 41.006   21  0.295   21 -0.090   20 -0.068   22 0.4849  1.327  0.280 -0.416  0.000
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.001 40.918   22  0.293   22 -0.092   18 -0.034   21 0.4853  1.240  0.198 -0.266  0.000
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.009 40.807   23  0.236   23 -0.113   22 -0.134   23 0.4812  0.977 -0.227 -0.042  0.000
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.011 40.770   24  0.228   25 -0.115   24 -0.138   24 0.4812  1.107 -0.074 -0.201  0.000
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.011 40.832   25  0.223   24 -0.115   30 -0.199   25 0.4809  0.871 -0.409  0.011  0.000
SABRES         33 49 226 271  0.002 41.234   26  0.146   26 -0.143   28 -0.172   26 0.4766  1.037 -0.193 -0.151  0.000
RANGERS        32 50 227 272  0.002 41.208   27  0.106   27 -0.160   25 -0.145   27 0.4740  1.053 -0.147 -0.142  0.000
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277  0.001 41.214   28  0.104   28 -0.161   26 -0.162   28 0.4737  1.070 -0.145 -0.180  0.000
DEVILS         31 51 222 275  0.003 41.258   29  0.060   29 -0.180   27 -0.168   29 0.4711  1.063 -0.159 -0.177  0.000
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.008 40.910   30  0.048   30 -0.186   31 -0.201   30 0.4694  0.937 -0.339 -0.063  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SENATORS       29 53 242 302  0.003 41.262   31  0.000   31 -0.216   29 -0.186   31 0.4650  1.268  0.082 -0.454  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.015 42.640    5  0.672    5  0.118    3  0.156    6 0.5186  1.164  0.290  0.022  0.000
SHARKS         50 39 312 286 -0.010 43.899   11  0.577   11  0.084   10  0.078   12 0.5133  1.306  0.398 -0.242  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.008 43.977   16  0.469   16  0.018   11  0.076   16 0.5034  1.026  0.041  0.110  0.000
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.017 40.425   18  0.381   18 -0.048   19 -0.056   18 0.4924  0.814 -0.327  0.216  0.000
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.009 40.807   23  0.236   23 -0.113   22 -0.134   23 0.4812  0.977 -0.227 -0.042  0.000
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.011 40.770   24  0.228   25 -0.115   24 -0.138   24 0.4812  1.107 -0.074 -0.201  0.000
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.011 40.832   25  0.223   24 -0.115   30 -0.199   25 0.4809  0.871 -0.409  0.011  0.000
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.008 40.910   30  0.048   30 -0.186   31 -0.201   30 0.4694  0.937 -0.339 -0.063  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232  0.003 43.857    9  0.579    9  0.085   13  0.075   10 0.5138  0.920 -0.082  0.231  0.000
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.004 43.925   10  0.578   10  0.085   15  0.059   11 0.5137  1.169  0.200 -0.081  0.000
BLUES          49 39 263 239  0.000 43.742   12  0.573   12  0.082    7  0.095    8 0.5139  0.954 -0.023  0.214  0.000
STARS          47 41 228 214  0.002 43.865   14  0.511   13  0.051   16  0.055   14 0.5085  0.713 -0.320  0.430  0.000
AVALANCHE      42 45 277 257  0.009 43.568   17  0.423   17 -0.023   12  0.076   17 0.4964  1.092  0.121  0.031  0.000
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.000 41.065   19  0.335   20 -0.072   21 -0.106   20 0.4880  0.896 -0.289  0.078  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.000 41.006   21  0.295   21 -0.090   20 -0.068   22 0.4849  1.327  0.280 -0.416  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241  0.002 42.495    1  1.029    1  0.331    1  0.275    1 0.5537  1.262  0.535  0.014  0.000
BRUINS         53 36 282 232  0.003 44.202    3  0.746    4  0.143    2  0.181    4 0.5237  0.939  0.046  0.317  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.019 44.914    8  0.580    8  0.086    9  0.081    9 0.5139  1.233  0.304 -0.142  0.000
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.002 40.747   13  0.512   14  0.049   17  0.038   13 0.5086  1.022 -0.001  0.078  0.000
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.001 40.918   22  0.293   22 -0.092   18 -0.034   21 0.4853  1.240  0.198 -0.266  0.000
SABRES         33 49 226 271  0.002 41.234   26  0.146   26 -0.143   28 -0.172   26 0.4766  1.037 -0.193 -0.151  0.000
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277  0.001 41.214   28  0.104   28 -0.161   26 -0.162   28 0.4737  1.070 -0.145 -0.180  0.000
SENATORS       29 53 242 302  0.003 41.262   31  0.000   31 -0.216   29 -0.186   31 0.4650  1.268  0.082 -0.454  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS      52 34 242 202  0.003 42.773    2  0.774    2  0.156    4  0.142    2 0.5253  0.722 -0.224  0.509  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   51 35 277 240  0.016 43.211    4  0.742    3  0.144    5  0.119    3 0.5247  1.065  0.131  0.108  0.000
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270  0.005 44.400    6  0.652    6  0.112    8  0.093    5 0.5187  1.190  0.261 -0.074  0.000
HURRICANES     50 39 266 243  0.010 44.625    7  0.607    7  0.096   14  0.073    7 0.5164  0.948 -0.052  0.198  0.000
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255  0.007 42.979   15  0.470   15  0.018    6  0.097   15 0.5040  1.139  0.199 -0.005  0.000
FLYERS         37 45 244 281  0.002 41.190   20  0.333   19 -0.072   23 -0.135   19 0.4885  1.187  0.028 -0.298  0.000
RANGERS        32 50 227 272  0.002 41.208   27  0.106   27 -0.160   25 -0.145   27 0.4740  1.053 -0.147 -0.142  0.000
DEVILS         31 51 222 275  0.003 41.258   29  0.060   29 -0.180   27 -0.168   29 0.4711  1.063 -0.159 -0.177  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      309 294 0.512    1  0.040
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 348 334 0.510    2  0.015
ATLANTIC DIVISION     338 336 0.501    3  0.004
PACIFIC DIVISION      322 353 0.477    4 -0.076

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.130 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 25 05:30:35 2019
games through: Wed Apr 24 2019

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