Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     15  5 66 43  0.020  9.800    1  0.277    1  0.289    4  0.257    1 0.5577   21  0.945    8  0.172    4  0.343 P
OILERS         15  5 77 59 -0.092  9.080    2  0.237    2  0.246    9  0.112    2 0.5486    2  1.373    2  0.565   30 -0.342 P
PANTHERS       14  7 77 56  0.082 10.802    3  0.214    3  0.224    3  0.265    3 0.5426    8  1.143    4  0.416   11  0.114 P
MAPLE LEAFS    16  7 66 49 -0.035 10.897    4  0.211    4  0.220    5  0.180    5 0.5399   31  0.783   22 -0.081    2  0.441
RANGERS        13  7 60 54  0.085 10.477    5  0.193    5  0.205    7  0.129    4 0.5399   22  0.931   16  0.028    5  0.230 P
CAPITALS       14  8 78 52  0.075 11.122    6  0.183    6  0.185    2  0.352    7 0.5320   17  0.997    5  0.326    3  0.377
WILD           14  7 78 64 -0.025 10.137    7  0.182    7  0.183   12  0.091    6 0.5333    3  1.297    3  0.442   26 -0.260 P
LIGHTNING      12  8 64 56  0.055 10.247    8  0.143    8  0.140    8  0.129   10 0.5237   18  0.985   11  0.090    8  0.168 P
BRUINS         11  7 56 51  0.017  9.019    9  0.133    9  0.130   13  0.062    8 0.5265   12  1.089    9  0.146   16 -0.021 P
BLUE JACKETS   12  7 67 59 -0.070  8.915   10  0.123   10  0.120   15  0.009    9 0.5248    4  1.239    6  0.283   27 -0.264 P
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      11  7 73 56 -0.015  8.666   11  0.118   11  0.109    6  0.150   11 0.5229    1  1.373    1  0.605   28 -0.304 P
FLAMES         12  9 70 42  0.059 10.494   12  0.105   12  0.097    1  0.387   12 0.5180   28  0.800   10  0.143    1  0.630 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 12  9 66 64 -0.070  9.919   13  0.064   13  0.054   21 -0.050   13 0.5135   11  1.110   12  0.060   23 -0.160 P
SHARKS         11 10 55 58  0.020 10.690   14  0.051   14  0.043   18 -0.029   15 0.5038   26  0.871   27 -0.197   10  0.138 P
PREDATORS      11 10 58 63 -0.020 10.392   15  0.035   15  0.025   22 -0.061   14 0.5044   14  1.030   21 -0.048   19 -0.074 P
STARS          10  9 53 55 -0.048  9.156   16  0.020   16  0.011   19 -0.044   16 0.5034   23  0.912   25 -0.165   13  0.078 P
DUCKS          11 11 70 61 -0.018 10.647   17 -0.001   18 -0.009   10  0.097   20 0.4940   19  0.983   14  0.055    9  0.138
DEVILS          9 10 57 58  0.060  9.942   18 -0.002   17 -0.004   16  0.005   19 0.4954   13  1.061   13  0.056   18 -0.046 P
BLUES          11 10 71 59 -0.068  9.763   19 -0.008   19 -0.012   11  0.093   17 0.5021    6  1.165    7  0.271   20 -0.085 P
JETS           10 11 60 60  0.023 10.677   20 -0.018   20 -0.014   17 -0.002   18 0.4959   20  0.983   20 -0.043   15  0.040 P
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PENGUINS       10 11 62 59 -0.014 10.267   21 -0.037   21 -0.040   14  0.051   22 0.4869   15  1.014   15  0.046   14  0.056 P
FLYERS          8 12 49 61  0.134 11.160   22 -0.052   22 -0.046   20 -0.045   21 0.4869   24  0.910   26 -0.169   12  0.080 P
RED WINGS      10 12 61 71 -0.042 10.822   23 -0.071   23 -0.067   26 -0.153   23 0.4857   16  1.013   24 -0.160   22 -0.146
KINGS           9 11 53 54 -0.076  9.441   24 -0.096   24 -0.093   23 -0.065   24 0.4787   30  0.795   28 -0.313    7  0.183 P
SABRES          8 13 60 70 -0.054 10.196   25 -0.166   25 -0.161   24 -0.119   26 0.4653   10  1.129   18  0.014   25 -0.252 P
ISLANDERS       5 12 32 52  0.115  9.461   26 -0.171   26 -0.164   25 -0.145   25 0.4672   32  0.685   31 -0.506    6  0.215 P
KRAKEN          7 14 58 73 -0.016 10.551   27 -0.202   27 -0.196   27 -0.155   27 0.4629    7  1.159   17  0.017   29 -0.327 P
BLACKHAWKS      7 14 45 67 -0.068 10.342   28 -0.225   28 -0.221   29 -0.264   28 0.4535   27  0.812   30 -0.495   17 -0.034 P
CANUCKS         6 16 51 73 -0.026 11.014   29 -0.288   29 -0.285   28 -0.261   29 0.4470   25  0.884   29 -0.415   21 -0.108
CANADIENS       6 17 54 83 -0.007 11.776   30 -0.294   30 -0.291   30 -0.287   30 0.4418    9  1.139   23 -0.141   31 -0.433
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS        4 15 46 73  0.059 10.234   31 -0.299   31 -0.295   31 -0.291   31 0.4387    5  1.234   19 -0.025   32 -0.558 P
COYOTES         4 17 39 77 -0.001 11.000   32 -0.359   32 -0.358   32 -0.421   32 0.4321   29  0.799   32 -0.666   24 -0.177 P

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         15  5 77 59 -0.092  9.080    2  0.237    2  0.246    9  0.112    2 0.5486    2  1.373    2  0.565   30 -0.342 P
FLAMES         12  9 70 42  0.059 10.494   12  0.105   12  0.097    1  0.387   12 0.5180   28  0.800   10  0.143    1  0.630 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 12  9 66 64 -0.070  9.919   13  0.064   13  0.054   21 -0.050   13 0.5135   11  1.110   12  0.060   23 -0.160 P
SHARKS         11 10 55 58  0.020 10.690   14  0.051   14  0.043   18 -0.029   15 0.5038   26  0.871   27 -0.197   10  0.138 P
DUCKS          11 11 70 61 -0.018 10.647   17 -0.001   18 -0.009   10  0.097   20 0.4940   19  0.983   14  0.055    9  0.138
KINGS           9 11 53 54 -0.076  9.441   24 -0.096   24 -0.093   23 -0.065   24 0.4787   30  0.795   28 -0.313    7  0.183 P
KRAKEN          7 14 58 73 -0.016 10.551   27 -0.202   27 -0.196   27 -0.155   27 0.4629    7  1.159   17  0.017   29 -0.327 P
CANUCKS         6 16 51 73 -0.026 11.014   29 -0.288   29 -0.285   28 -0.261   29 0.4470   25  0.884   29 -0.415   21 -0.108

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD           14  7 78 64 -0.025 10.137    7  0.182    7  0.183   12  0.091    6 0.5333    3  1.297    3  0.442   26 -0.260 P
AVALANCHE      11  7 73 56 -0.015  8.666   11  0.118   11  0.109    6  0.150   11 0.5229    1  1.373    1  0.605   28 -0.304 P
PREDATORS      11 10 58 63 -0.020 10.392   15  0.035   15  0.025   22 -0.061   14 0.5044   14  1.030   21 -0.048   19 -0.074 P
STARS          10  9 53 55 -0.048  9.156   16  0.020   16  0.011   19 -0.044   16 0.5034   23  0.912   25 -0.165   13  0.078 P
BLUES          11 10 71 59 -0.068  9.763   19 -0.008   19 -0.012   11  0.093   17 0.5021    6  1.165    7  0.271   20 -0.085 P
JETS           10 11 60 60  0.023 10.677   20 -0.018   20 -0.014   17 -0.002   18 0.4959   20  0.983   20 -0.043   15  0.040 P
BLACKHAWKS      7 14 45 67 -0.068 10.342   28 -0.225   28 -0.221   29 -0.264   28 0.4535   27  0.812   30 -0.495   17 -0.034 P
COYOTES         4 17 39 77 -0.001 11.000   32 -0.359   32 -0.358   32 -0.421   32 0.4321   29  0.799   32 -0.666   24 -0.177 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       14  7 77 56  0.082 10.802    3  0.214    3  0.224    3  0.265    3 0.5426    8  1.143    4  0.416   11  0.114 P
MAPLE LEAFS    16  7 66 49 -0.035 10.897    4  0.211    4  0.220    5  0.180    5 0.5399   31  0.783   22 -0.081    2  0.441
LIGHTNING      12  8 64 56  0.055 10.247    8  0.143    8  0.140    8  0.129   10 0.5237   18  0.985   11  0.090    8  0.168 P
BRUINS         11  7 56 51  0.017  9.019    9  0.133    9  0.130   13  0.062    8 0.5265   12  1.089    9  0.146   16 -0.021 P
RED WINGS      10 12 61 71 -0.042 10.822   23 -0.071   23 -0.067   26 -0.153   23 0.4857   16  1.013   24 -0.160   22 -0.146
SABRES          8 13 60 70 -0.054 10.196   25 -0.166   25 -0.161   24 -0.119   26 0.4653   10  1.129   18  0.014   25 -0.252 P
CANADIENS       6 17 54 83 -0.007 11.776   30 -0.294   30 -0.291   30 -0.287   30 0.4418    9  1.139   23 -0.141   31 -0.433
SENATORS        4 15 46 73  0.059 10.234   31 -0.299   31 -0.295   31 -0.291   31 0.4387    5  1.234   19 -0.025   32 -0.558 P

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     15  5 66 43  0.020  9.800    1  0.277    1  0.289    4  0.257    1 0.5577   21  0.945    8  0.172    4  0.343 P
RANGERS        13  7 60 54  0.085 10.477    5  0.193    5  0.205    7  0.129    4 0.5399   22  0.931   16  0.028    5  0.230 P
CAPITALS       14  8 78 52  0.075 11.122    6  0.183    6  0.185    2  0.352    7 0.5320   17  0.997    5  0.326    3  0.377
BLUE JACKETS   12  7 67 59 -0.070  8.915   10  0.123   10  0.120   15  0.009    9 0.5248    4  1.239    6  0.283   27 -0.264 P
DEVILS          9 10 57 58  0.060  9.942   18 -0.002   17 -0.004   16  0.005   19 0.4954   13  1.061   13  0.056   18 -0.046 P
PENGUINS       10 11 62 59 -0.014 10.267   21 -0.037   21 -0.040   14  0.051   22 0.4869   15  1.014   15  0.046   14  0.056 P
FLYERS          8 12 49 61  0.134 11.160   22 -0.052   22 -0.046   20 -0.045   21 0.4869   24  0.910   26 -0.169   12  0.080 P
ISLANDERS       5 12 32 52  0.115  9.461   26 -0.171   26 -0.164   25 -0.145   25 0.4672   32  0.685   31 -0.506    6  0.215 P

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 86 72 0.544    1  0.132
PACIFIC DIVISION      83 85 0.494    2  0.005
ATLANTIC DIVISION     81 86 0.485    3 -0.046
CENTRAL DIVISION      78 85 0.479    4 -0.094

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.150 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Nov 29 05:30:13 2021
games through: Sun Nov 28 2021

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