Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.004 42.551    1  1.081    1  0.331    1  0.273    1 0.5531  1.264  0.540  0.005  0.000
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.022 53.645    2  0.879    2  0.179    2  0.240    2 0.5282  0.928  0.096  0.383  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.030 47.046    3  0.725    3  0.131    6  0.102    3 0.5217  1.041  0.089  0.116  0.000
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.027 55.096    4  0.690    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5183  0.972  0.029  0.217  0.000
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.002 45.014    5  0.686    5  0.117    5  0.111    4 0.5190  0.717 -0.256  0.479  0.000
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.021 42.670    6  0.682    6  0.114    3  0.152    6 0.5181  1.167  0.294  0.010  0.000
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.002 44.410    7  0.662    7  0.108    8  0.088    7 0.5181  1.192  0.261 -0.085  0.000
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.024 49.439    8  0.631    8  0.100   13  0.064    8 0.5164  0.948 -0.057  0.186  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.020 45.180    9  0.600    9  0.085    9  0.081    9 0.5137  1.235  0.310 -0.148  0.000
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.001 44.073   10  0.592   10  0.083   14  0.057   10 0.5136  1.170  0.202 -0.088  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.958   11  0.590   11  0.082   10  0.071   11 0.5134  0.920 -0.082  0.224  0.000
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.002 51.128   12  0.566   12  0.075   16  0.054   12 0.5107  1.278  0.339 -0.232  0.000
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.007 40.833   13  0.522   13  0.045   17  0.034   13 0.5081  1.023  0.000  0.068  0.000
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.011 47.957   14  0.515   14  0.045   15  0.056   14 0.5076  0.722 -0.307  0.419  0.000
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255 -0.001 42.946   15  0.478   15  0.012    7  0.091   15 0.5031  1.140  0.200 -0.017  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.016 43.937   16  0.476   16  0.011   11  0.070   16 0.5027  1.030  0.043  0.096  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.011 47.425   17  0.429   17 -0.031   12  0.067   17 0.4958  1.061  0.078  0.056  0.000
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.023 40.466   18  0.384   18 -0.054   19 -0.062   18 0.4919  0.816 -0.328  0.204  0.000
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.005 41.137   19  0.335   19 -0.078   21 -0.112   20 0.4876  0.897 -0.290  0.067  0.000
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.004 41.215   20  0.332   20 -0.079   23 -0.143   19 0.4878  1.188  0.026 -0.311  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.085   21  0.293   21 -0.097   20 -0.073   22 0.4846  1.328  0.281 -0.427  0.000
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.006 41.002   22  0.292   22 -0.098   18 -0.039   21 0.4848  1.242  0.199 -0.277  0.000
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.015 40.847   23  0.231   23 -0.119   22 -0.141   23 0.4807  0.979 -0.227 -0.055  0.000
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.017 40.798   24  0.222   25 -0.122   24 -0.145   24 0.4806  1.109 -0.075 -0.215  0.000
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.016 40.873   25  0.217   24 -0.122   30 -0.207   25 0.4804  0.873 -0.412 -0.002  0.000
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.003 41.319   26  0.143   26 -0.150   28 -0.179   26 0.4761  1.039 -0.194 -0.163  0.000
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.003 41.299   27  0.101   27 -0.168   26 -0.169   28 0.4732  1.071 -0.146 -0.192  0.000
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.004 41.234   28  0.100   28 -0.168   25 -0.152   27 0.4733  1.054 -0.149 -0.155  0.000
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.003 41.283   29  0.055   29 -0.189   27 -0.176   29 0.4704  1.065 -0.161 -0.191  0.000
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.014 40.951   30  0.044   30 -0.194   31 -0.208   30 0.4689  0.938 -0.341 -0.076  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.002 41.348   31  0.000   31 -0.224   29 -0.192   31 0.4645  1.269  0.081 -0.466  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.021 42.670    6  0.682    6  0.114    3  0.152    6 0.5181  1.167  0.294  0.010  0.000
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.002 51.128   12  0.566   12  0.075   16  0.054   12 0.5107  1.278  0.339 -0.232  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.016 43.937   16  0.476   16  0.011   11  0.070   16 0.5027  1.030  0.043  0.096  0.000
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.023 40.466   18  0.384   18 -0.054   19 -0.062   18 0.4919  0.816 -0.328  0.204  0.000
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.015 40.847   23  0.231   23 -0.119   22 -0.141   23 0.4807  0.979 -0.227 -0.055  0.000
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.017 40.798   24  0.222   25 -0.122   24 -0.145   24 0.4806  1.109 -0.075 -0.215  0.000
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.016 40.873   25  0.217   24 -0.122   30 -0.207   25 0.4804  0.873 -0.412 -0.002  0.000
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.014 40.951   30  0.044   30 -0.194   31 -0.208   30 0.4689  0.938 -0.341 -0.076  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.027 55.096    4  0.690    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5183  0.972  0.029  0.217  0.000
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.001 44.073   10  0.592   10  0.083   14  0.057   10 0.5136  1.170  0.202 -0.088  0.000
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.958   11  0.590   11  0.082   10  0.071   11 0.5134  0.920 -0.082  0.224  0.000
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.011 47.957   14  0.515   14  0.045   15  0.056   14 0.5076  0.722 -0.307  0.419  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.011 47.425   17  0.429   17 -0.031   12  0.067   17 0.4958  1.061  0.078  0.056  0.000
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.005 41.137   19  0.335   19 -0.078   21 -0.112   20 0.4876  0.897 -0.290  0.067  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.085   21  0.293   21 -0.097   20 -0.073   22 0.4846  1.328  0.281 -0.427  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.004 42.551    1  1.081    1  0.331    1  0.273    1 0.5531  1.264  0.540  0.005  0.000
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.022 53.645    2  0.879    2  0.179    2  0.240    2 0.5282  0.928  0.096  0.383  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.020 45.180    9  0.600    9  0.085    9  0.081    9 0.5137  1.235  0.310 -0.148  0.000
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.007 40.833   13  0.522   13  0.045   17  0.034   13 0.5081  1.023  0.000  0.068  0.000
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.006 41.002   22  0.292   22 -0.098   18 -0.039   21 0.4848  1.242  0.199 -0.277  0.000
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.003 41.319   26  0.143   26 -0.150   28 -0.179   26 0.4761  1.039 -0.194 -0.163  0.000
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.003 41.299   27  0.101   27 -0.168   26 -0.169   28 0.4732  1.071 -0.146 -0.192  0.000
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.002 41.348   31  0.000   31 -0.224   29 -0.192   31 0.4645  1.269  0.081 -0.466  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.030 47.046    3  0.725    3  0.131    6  0.102    3 0.5217  1.041  0.089  0.116  0.000
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.002 45.014    5  0.686    5  0.117    5  0.111    4 0.5190  0.717 -0.256  0.479  0.000
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.002 44.410    7  0.662    7  0.108    8  0.088    7 0.5181  1.192  0.261 -0.085  0.000
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.024 49.439    8  0.631    8  0.100   13  0.064    8 0.5164  0.948 -0.057  0.186  0.000
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255 -0.001 42.946   15  0.478   15  0.012    7  0.091   15 0.5031  1.140  0.200 -0.017  0.000
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.004 41.215   20  0.332   20 -0.079   23 -0.143   19 0.4878  1.188  0.026 -0.311  0.000
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.004 41.234   28  0.100   28 -0.168   25 -0.152   27 0.4733  1.054 -0.149 -0.155  0.000
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.003 41.283   29  0.055   29 -0.189   27 -0.176   29 0.4704  1.065 -0.161 -0.191  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      327 310 0.513    1  0.040
ATLANTIC DIVISION     349 342 0.505    2  0.009
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 354 346 0.506    3  0.000
PACIFIC DIVISION      328 360 0.477    4 -0.086

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jun 13 05:30:18 2019
games through: Wed Jun 12 2019

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