Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         32 15 167 116  0.031 23.855    1  0.229    1  0.223    1  0.260    1 0.5463   20  1.021    5  0.211    3  0.309
JETS             31 17 167 118 -0.024 23.363    2  0.168    2  0.160    2  0.216    2 0.5330   19  1.021    7  0.167    5  0.265
LIGHTNING        25 21 167 131  0.038 23.556   12  0.060   12  0.067    3  0.201   11 0.5155    5  1.219    1  0.396   18  0.005
STARS            29 18 149 117 -0.013 23.156    6  0.132    7  0.131    4  0.157    6 0.5270   26  0.946   15  0.021    4  0.293
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 18 160 132 -0.002 23.386    4  0.137    4  0.136    5  0.142    4 0.5284    9  1.151    3  0.251   15  0.033
HURRICANES       29 19 158 133  0.020 24.338    5  0.134    5  0.132    6  0.136    7 0.5264   14  1.075    8  0.152    9  0.120
DEVILS           26 23 148 125  0.026 24.950   13  0.039   13  0.048    7  0.134   13 0.5089   29  0.907   19 -0.045    2  0.313
KINGS            25 19 129 110 -0.012 21.759   11  0.063   11  0.070    8  0.111   12 0.5146   31  0.876   21 -0.103    1  0.324
OILERS           29 18 153 129 -0.010 23.313    7  0.131    6  0.132    9  0.097    5 0.5280   15  1.064   11  0.100   10  0.094
MAPLE LEAFS      30 18 152 137  0.018 24.362    3  0.160    3  0.157   10  0.069    3 0.5308   13  1.085   12  0.097   14  0.041
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD             28 19 140 134  0.021 23.943    8  0.118    8  0.123   11  0.052    8 0.5247   24  0.983   18 -0.041    8  0.145
PANTHERS         28 20 158 144  0.013 24.308    9  0.097    9  0.105   12  0.049    9 0.5215    8  1.159    6  0.169   22 -0.071
AVALANCHE        28 20 160 150  0.011 24.264   10  0.097   10  0.103   13  0.046   10 0.5199    4  1.228    2  0.253   24 -0.162
SENATORS         24 23 132 132  0.005 23.712   15  0.009   15  0.015   14  0.013   15 0.5035   27  0.937   26 -0.132    6  0.158
RANGERS          23 24 139 142  0.002 23.658   16 -0.012   16 -0.011   15  0.011   16 0.4972   16  1.062   16  0.011   17  0.011
BLUES            23 25 138 143  0.007 24.285   17 -0.020   17 -0.021   16 -0.015   18 0.4951   22  1.005   20 -0.083   11  0.053
CANADIENS        24 23 145 157  0.013 23.904   14  0.012   14  0.019   17 -0.019   14 0.5044    6  1.178   10  0.125   25 -0.162
BLUE JACKETS     22 25 157 158 -0.016 23.359   20 -0.041   20 -0.044   18 -0.023   20 0.4916    1  1.255    4  0.221   29 -0.267
FLAMES           22 23 120 132 -0.034 22.060   19 -0.027   19 -0.027   19 -0.051   19 0.4921   30  0.890   30 -0.248    7  0.147
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 20 26 132 139  0.001 23.226   22 -0.070   22 -0.074   20 -0.052   22 0.4857   21  1.014   22 -0.110   19  0.005
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS           22 26 148 162 -0.011 24.007   21 -0.050   21 -0.053   21 -0.062   21 0.4906    7  1.165   14  0.065   26 -0.189
CANUCKS          20 26 131 146 -0.031 22.648   25 -0.084   25 -0.089   22 -0.064   25 0.4807   18  1.022   23 -0.112   21 -0.016
PREDATORS        17 29 122 144  0.046 24.104   29 -0.130   29 -0.130   23 -0.082   29 0.4740   25  0.977   29 -0.182   16  0.018
SABRES           18 29 145 161 -0.019 23.389   30 -0.146   30 -0.144   24 -0.088   30 0.4704    3  1.235    9  0.129   30 -0.305
BRUINS           23 25 133 153  0.000 24.268   18 -0.025   18 -0.024   25 -0.096   17 0.4959   23  0.991   28 -0.179   20 -0.012
KRAKEN           21 27 143 154 -0.020 23.879   23 -0.080   23 -0.083   26 -0.103   23 0.4821   10  1.137   17 -0.011   27 -0.194
ISLANDERS        19 27 124 138 -0.045 22.443   27 -0.116   27 -0.119   27 -0.107   27 0.4756   28  0.932   31 -0.259   12  0.044
RED WINGS        21 26 132 152 -0.053 22.793   24 -0.081   24 -0.085   28 -0.129   24 0.4810   17  1.062   25 -0.129   23 -0.129
PENGUINS         20 29 148 180  0.013 25.136   26 -0.101   26 -0.102   29 -0.161   26 0.4797    2  1.245   13  0.069   32 -0.392
DUCKS            18 29 113 150  0.025 24.374   28 -0.121   28 -0.122   30 -0.183   28 0.4744   32  0.864   32 -0.409   13  0.044
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS       15 32 123 162 -0.016 23.593   31 -0.222   31 -0.216   31 -0.193   31 0.4551   12  1.120   24 -0.123   28 -0.264
SHARKS           14 36 130 182  0.009 25.674   32 -0.260   32 -0.259   32 -0.243   32 0.4469   11  1.123   27 -0.168   31 -0.318

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 18 160 132 -0.002 23.386    4  0.137    4  0.136    5  0.142    4 0.5284    9  1.151    3  0.251   15  0.033
KINGS            25 19 129 110 -0.012 21.759   11  0.063   11  0.070    8  0.111   12 0.5146   31  0.876   21 -0.103    1  0.324
OILERS           29 18 153 129 -0.010 23.313    7  0.131    6  0.132    9  0.097    5 0.5280   15  1.064   11  0.100   10  0.094
FLAMES           22 23 120 132 -0.034 22.060   19 -0.027   19 -0.027   19 -0.051   19 0.4921   30  0.890   30 -0.248    7  0.147
CANUCKS          20 26 131 146 -0.031 22.648   25 -0.084   25 -0.089   22 -0.064   25 0.4807   18  1.022   23 -0.112   21 -0.016
KRAKEN           21 27 143 154 -0.020 23.879   23 -0.080   23 -0.083   26 -0.103   23 0.4821   10  1.137   17 -0.011   27 -0.194
DUCKS            18 29 113 150  0.025 24.374   28 -0.121   28 -0.122   30 -0.183   28 0.4744   32  0.864   32 -0.409   13  0.044
SHARKS           14 36 130 182  0.009 25.674   32 -0.260   32 -0.259   32 -0.243   32 0.4469   11  1.123   27 -0.168   31 -0.318

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             31 17 167 118 -0.024 23.363    2  0.168    2  0.160    2  0.216    2 0.5330   19  1.021    7  0.167    5  0.265
STARS            29 18 149 117 -0.013 23.156    6  0.132    7  0.131    4  0.157    6 0.5270   26  0.946   15  0.021    4  0.293
WILD             28 19 140 134  0.021 23.943    8  0.118    8  0.123   11  0.052    8 0.5247   24  0.983   18 -0.041    8  0.145
AVALANCHE        28 20 160 150  0.011 24.264   10  0.097   10  0.103   13  0.046   10 0.5199    4  1.228    2  0.253   24 -0.162
BLUES            23 25 138 143  0.007 24.285   17 -0.020   17 -0.021   16 -0.015   18 0.4951   22  1.005   20 -0.083   11  0.053
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 20 26 132 139  0.001 23.226   22 -0.070   22 -0.074   20 -0.052   22 0.4857   21  1.014   22 -0.110   19  0.005
PREDATORS        17 29 122 144  0.046 24.104   29 -0.130   29 -0.130   23 -0.082   29 0.4740   25  0.977   29 -0.182   16  0.018
BLACKHAWKS       15 32 123 162 -0.016 23.593   31 -0.222   31 -0.216   31 -0.193   31 0.4551   12  1.120   24 -0.123   28 -0.264

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         32 15 167 116  0.031 23.855    1  0.229    1  0.223    1  0.260    1 0.5463   20  1.021    5  0.211    3  0.309
HURRICANES       29 19 158 133  0.020 24.338    5  0.134    5  0.132    6  0.136    7 0.5264   14  1.075    8  0.152    9  0.120
DEVILS           26 23 148 125  0.026 24.950   13  0.039   13  0.048    7  0.134   13 0.5089   29  0.907   19 -0.045    2  0.313
RANGERS          23 24 139 142  0.002 23.658   16 -0.012   16 -0.011   15  0.011   16 0.4972   16  1.062   16  0.011   17  0.011
BLUE JACKETS     22 25 157 158 -0.016 23.359   20 -0.041   20 -0.044   18 -0.023   20 0.4916    1  1.255    4  0.221   29 -0.267
FLYERS           22 26 148 162 -0.011 24.007   21 -0.050   21 -0.053   21 -0.062   21 0.4906    7  1.165   14  0.065   26 -0.189
ISLANDERS        19 27 124 138 -0.045 22.443   27 -0.116   27 -0.119   27 -0.107   27 0.4756   28  0.932   31 -0.259   12  0.044
PENGUINS         20 29 148 180  0.013 25.136   26 -0.101   26 -0.102   29 -0.161   26 0.4797    2  1.245   13  0.069   32 -0.392

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        25 21 167 131  0.038 23.556   12  0.060   12  0.067    3  0.201   11 0.5155    5  1.219    1  0.396   18  0.005
MAPLE LEAFS      30 18 152 137  0.018 24.362    3  0.160    3  0.157   10  0.069    3 0.5308   13  1.085   12  0.097   14  0.041
PANTHERS         28 20 158 144  0.013 24.308    9  0.097    9  0.105   12  0.049    9 0.5215    8  1.159    6  0.169   22 -0.071
SENATORS         24 23 132 132  0.005 23.712   15  0.009   15  0.015   14  0.013   15 0.5035   27  0.937   26 -0.132    6  0.158
CANADIENS        24 23 145 157  0.013 23.904   14  0.012   14  0.019   17 -0.019   14 0.5044    6  1.178   10  0.125   25 -0.162
SABRES           18 29 145 161 -0.019 23.389   30 -0.146   30 -0.144   24 -0.088   30 0.4704    3  1.235    9  0.129   30 -0.305
BRUINS           23 25 133 153  0.000 24.268   18 -0.025   18 -0.024   25 -0.096   17 0.4959   23  0.991   28 -0.179   20 -0.012
RED WINGS        21 26 132 152 -0.053 22.793   24 -0.081   24 -0.085   28 -0.129   24 0.4810   17  1.062   25 -0.129   23 -0.129

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 193 188 0.507    1  0.039
CENTRAL DIVISION      191 186 0.507    2  0.027
ATLANTIC DIVISION     193 185 0.511    3 -0.001
PACIFIC DIVISION      178 196 0.476    4 -0.063

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.079 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jan 22 05:30:17 2025
games through: Tue Jan 21 2025

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