Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD             11  5 56 39 -0.006  7.809    5  0.172    5  0.175    5  0.221    3 0.5359   23  0.961   15  0.078    1  0.364 P
STARS            10  5 53 35 -0.054  7.029    7  0.137    7  0.138    7  0.209    6 0.5323   21  0.993   13  0.103    2  0.315 P
JETS             15  2 74 38  0.051  8.539    1  0.393    1  0.406    1  0.401    1 0.5854   12  1.167    2  0.505    3  0.297 P
MAPLE LEAFS      10  8 54 47  0.019  9.145   11  0.068   11  0.072   10  0.090   11 0.5112   27  0.913   20 -0.107    4  0.287 P
DEVILS           12  8 72 52  0.042 10.202    8  0.122    8  0.123    2  0.253    9 0.5231   17  1.082   10  0.252    5  0.254 P
DUCKS             5 10 33 46 -0.048  7.519   29 -0.180   29 -0.174   29 -0.182   29 0.4492   32  0.733   32 -0.571    6  0.206 P
RANGERS          10  5 55 38 -0.025  7.207    6  0.144    6  0.146    4  0.228    7 0.5298   15  1.113    9  0.265    7  0.191 P
FLAMES            8  9 47 51 -0.035  8.441   20 -0.043   20 -0.037   16 -0.047   16 0.4927   30  0.881   25 -0.279    8  0.186 P
RED WINGS         7  8 37 45  0.017  7.809   16 -0.024   16 -0.023   19 -0.074   20 0.4870   31  0.873   26 -0.315    9  0.167 P
ISLANDERS         7 10 47 52 -0.022  8.588   25 -0.097   25 -0.088   21 -0.097   25 0.4757   29  0.887   27 -0.323   10  0.130 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES       11  4 60 40 -0.005  7.363    2  0.214    2  0.219    3  0.229    2 0.5542    9  1.186    6  0.358   11  0.101 P
LIGHTNING         8  7 53 46  0.241  8.851    9  0.118   10  0.121    6  0.221    8 0.5273    8  1.198    5  0.365   12  0.077 P
KRAKEN            8  9 52 51 -0.005  8.675   18 -0.028   18 -0.026   18 -0.066   17 0.4915   20  0.997   21 -0.167   13  0.036 P
KINGS             9  9 57 54 -0.071  8.564   17 -0.026   17 -0.025   13  0.040   19 0.4871   16  1.094   16  0.053   14  0.026 P
PREDATORS         5 12 41 56 -0.076  8.259   31 -0.234   31 -0.230   28 -0.179   31 0.4481   28  0.911   30 -0.378   15  0.021 P
OILERS            9  8 47 53 -0.046  8.429   12  0.020   12  0.022   22 -0.101   13 0.4995   22  0.981   24 -0.221   16  0.019 P
BRUINS            8 10 45 61 -0.028  9.095   22 -0.068   22 -0.058   26 -0.161   18 0.4882   26  0.936   28 -0.332   17  0.010 P
SENATORS          8  8 55 49  0.018  8.161   15  0.001   15  0.003   12  0.077   14 0.4972   13  1.147   11  0.156   18 -0.002 P
BLACKHAWKS        6 11 42 52 -0.039  8.552   28 -0.164   28 -0.161   27 -0.171   28 0.4601   24  0.941   29 -0.336   19 -0.005 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  7  9 45 52 -0.006  8.243   21 -0.064   21 -0.058   23 -0.129   24 0.4816   19  1.021   22 -0.203   20 -0.055 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS            5 13 42 63 -0.013  9.346   32 -0.236   32 -0.231   31 -0.228   32 0.4426   25  0.938   31 -0.398   21 -0.059 P
BLUES             7 10 43 59  0.038  9.070   23 -0.078   23 -0.065   24 -0.137   23 0.4828   18  1.025   23 -0.206   22 -0.068 P
CAPITALS         10  5 62 44  0.080  7.862    4  0.175    4  0.180    8  0.197    5 0.5341    4  1.290    3  0.463   23 -0.068 P
CANUCKS           8  7 47 49 -0.073  7.173   14  0.007   14  0.009   15 -0.016   12 0.4996   11  1.170   14  0.093   24 -0.124 P
PANTHERS         11  6 61 56  0.093  9.194    3  0.187    3  0.193   11  0.089    4 0.5356    6  1.286    7  0.349   25 -0.170 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   10  6 66 50 -0.002  7.913   10  0.118    9  0.122    9  0.187   10 0.5230    2  1.375    1  0.569   26 -0.195 P
FLYERS            7 10 49 62 -0.011  8.741   24 -0.095   24 -0.085   25 -0.160   22 0.4832   14  1.131   19 -0.100   27 -0.219 P
SABRES            8  9 59 56 -0.005  8.581   19 -0.033   19 -0.030   14  0.013   21 0.4855    5  1.288    8  0.275   28 -0.249 P
BLUE JACKETS      5 10 46 54  0.030  7.885   26 -0.149   26 -0.146   20 -0.082   27 0.4614    7  1.255   12  0.137   29 -0.301 P
PENGUINS          6 12 49 71  0.036  9.683   27 -0.151   27 -0.147   30 -0.207   26 0.4677   10  1.184   18 -0.081   30 -0.334 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE         9  8 59 63 -0.067  8.224   13  0.010   13  0.011   17 -0.055   15 0.4947    1  1.433    4  0.408   31 -0.518 P
CANADIENS         5 12 46 70 -0.024  8.740   30 -0.216   30 -0.210   32 -0.256   30 0.4491    3  1.291   17  0.010   32 -0.523 P

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS             5 10 33 46 -0.048  7.519   29 -0.180   29 -0.174   29 -0.182   29 0.4492   32  0.733   32 -0.571    6  0.206 P
FLAMES            8  9 47 51 -0.035  8.441   20 -0.043   20 -0.037   16 -0.047   16 0.4927   30  0.881   25 -0.279    8  0.186 P
KRAKEN            8  9 52 51 -0.005  8.675   18 -0.028   18 -0.026   18 -0.066   17 0.4915   20  0.997   21 -0.167   13  0.036 P
KINGS             9  9 57 54 -0.071  8.564   17 -0.026   17 -0.025   13  0.040   19 0.4871   16  1.094   16  0.053   14  0.026 P
OILERS            9  8 47 53 -0.046  8.429   12  0.020   12  0.022   22 -0.101   13 0.4995   22  0.981   24 -0.221   16  0.019 P
SHARKS            5 13 42 63 -0.013  9.346   32 -0.236   32 -0.231   31 -0.228   32 0.4426   25  0.938   31 -0.398   21 -0.059 P
CANUCKS           8  7 47 49 -0.073  7.173   14  0.007   14  0.009   15 -0.016   12 0.4996   11  1.170   14  0.093   24 -0.124 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   10  6 66 50 -0.002  7.913   10  0.118    9  0.122    9  0.187   10 0.5230    2  1.375    1  0.569   26 -0.195 P

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD             11  5 56 39 -0.006  7.809    5  0.172    5  0.175    5  0.221    3 0.5359   23  0.961   15  0.078    1  0.364 P
STARS            10  5 53 35 -0.054  7.029    7  0.137    7  0.138    7  0.209    6 0.5323   21  0.993   13  0.103    2  0.315 P
JETS             15  2 74 38  0.051  8.539    1  0.393    1  0.406    1  0.401    1 0.5854   12  1.167    2  0.505    3  0.297 P
PREDATORS         5 12 41 56 -0.076  8.259   31 -0.234   31 -0.230   28 -0.179   31 0.4481   28  0.911   30 -0.378   15  0.021 P
BLACKHAWKS        6 11 42 52 -0.039  8.552   28 -0.164   28 -0.161   27 -0.171   28 0.4601   24  0.941   29 -0.336   19 -0.005 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  7  9 45 52 -0.006  8.243   21 -0.064   21 -0.058   23 -0.129   24 0.4816   19  1.021   22 -0.203   20 -0.055 P
BLUES             7 10 43 59  0.038  9.070   23 -0.078   23 -0.065   24 -0.137   23 0.4828   18  1.025   23 -0.206   22 -0.068 P
AVALANCHE         9  8 59 63 -0.067  8.224   13  0.010   13  0.011   17 -0.055   15 0.4947    1  1.433    4  0.408   31 -0.518 P

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DEVILS           12  8 72 52  0.042 10.202    8  0.122    8  0.123    2  0.253    9 0.5231   17  1.082   10  0.252    5  0.254 P
RANGERS          10  5 55 38 -0.025  7.207    6  0.144    6  0.146    4  0.228    7 0.5298   15  1.113    9  0.265    7  0.191 P
ISLANDERS         7 10 47 52 -0.022  8.588   25 -0.097   25 -0.088   21 -0.097   25 0.4757   29  0.887   27 -0.323   10  0.130 P
HURRICANES       11  4 60 40 -0.005  7.363    2  0.214    2  0.219    3  0.229    2 0.5542    9  1.186    6  0.358   11  0.101 P
CAPITALS         10  5 62 44  0.080  7.862    4  0.175    4  0.180    8  0.197    5 0.5341    4  1.290    3  0.463   23 -0.068 P
FLYERS            7 10 49 62 -0.011  8.741   24 -0.095   24 -0.085   25 -0.160   22 0.4832   14  1.131   19 -0.100   27 -0.219 P
BLUE JACKETS      5 10 46 54  0.030  7.885   26 -0.149   26 -0.146   20 -0.082   27 0.4614    7  1.255   12  0.137   29 -0.301 P
PENGUINS          6 12 49 71  0.036  9.683   27 -0.151   27 -0.147   30 -0.207   26 0.4677   10  1.184   18 -0.081   30 -0.334 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS      10  8 54 47  0.019  9.145   11  0.068   11  0.072   10  0.090   11 0.5112   27  0.913   20 -0.107    4  0.287 P
RED WINGS         7  8 37 45  0.017  7.809   16 -0.024   16 -0.023   19 -0.074   20 0.4870   31  0.873   26 -0.315    9  0.167 P
LIGHTNING         8  7 53 46  0.241  8.851    9  0.118   10  0.121    6  0.221    8 0.5273    8  1.198    5  0.365   12  0.077 P
BRUINS            8 10 45 61 -0.028  9.095   22 -0.068   22 -0.058   26 -0.161   18 0.4882   26  0.936   28 -0.332   17  0.010 P
SENATORS          8  8 55 49  0.018  8.161   15  0.001   15  0.003   12  0.077   14 0.4972   13  1.147   11  0.156   18 -0.002 P
PANTHERS         11  6 61 56  0.093  9.194    3  0.187    3  0.193   11  0.089    4 0.5356    6  1.286    7  0.349   25 -0.170 P
SABRES            8  9 59 56 -0.005  8.581   19 -0.033   19 -0.030   14  0.013   21 0.4855    5  1.288    8  0.275   28 -0.249 P
CANADIENS         5 12 46 70 -0.024  8.740   30 -0.216   30 -0.210   32 -0.256   30 0.4491    3  1.291   17  0.010   32 -0.523 P

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 68 64 0.515    1  0.087
CENTRAL DIVISION      70 62 0.530    2  0.032
ATLANTIC DIVISION     65 68 0.489    3  0.002
PACIFIC DIVISION      62 71 0.466    4 -0.098

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.052 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Nov 15 05:30:13 2024
games through: Thu Nov 14 2024

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