Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       54 30 273 204  0.009 41.154    2  0.275    2  0.280    2  0.268    2 0.5345   30  0.891   16  0.039    1  0.497
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.003 40.839    4  0.251    4  0.250    6  0.220    4 0.5311   29  0.924   18  0.028    2  0.413
BRUINS         49 36 278 230  0.016 42.011    9  0.166    9  0.158    8  0.215    9 0.5193   26  0.962   13  0.065    3  0.365
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.004 40.718    3  0.271    3  0.274    1  0.284    3 0.5334   23  1.028    7  0.212    4  0.357
KINGS          45 39 265 226 -0.001 40.947   14  0.060   14  0.066   10  0.168   14 0.5080   27  0.948   21  0.003    5  0.334
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.786    7  0.213    7  0.204    4  0.225    7 0.5251   18  1.056    9  0.186    6  0.265
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.007 40.670    1  0.335    1  0.342    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.247    7  0.226
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.018 40.009   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4779   32  0.835   29 -0.404    8  0.174
STARS          52 32 302 241 -0.003 40.837    5  0.234    5  0.229    7  0.216    5 0.5285   11  1.166    5  0.313    9  0.119
OILERS         50 34 305 246 -0.003 40.832    8  0.192    8  0.183    5  0.223    8 0.5219    7  1.197    3  0.360   10  0.087
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.004 40.487   18 -0.039   18 -0.045   17 -0.004   19 0.4940   24  1.027   22 -0.077   11  0.070
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 37 274 249 -0.008 40.905   12  0.102   12  0.108   14  0.080   12 0.5134   15  1.101   12  0.095   12  0.064
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.002 40.351   22 -0.062   23 -0.071   15  0.033   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.015   13  0.050
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.004 41.266   10  0.143   10  0.141   12  0.103   10 0.5173   12  1.135   10  0.160   14  0.046
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.157   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.125   17 0.4962   28  0.943   28 -0.296   15  0.046
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.009 40.193   15  0.028   15  0.038   21 -0.064   15 0.5051   25  1.009   26 -0.159   16  0.031
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.687   21 -0.059   21 -0.064   19 -0.062   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.122   17 -0.002
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.019 42.085   20 -0.049   20 -0.055   22 -0.067   20 0.4931   19  1.055   23 -0.107   18 -0.027
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.412   19 -0.040   19 -0.045   18 -0.023   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.001 40.989    6  0.217    6  0.208    9  0.201    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.487   20 -0.086
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    47 38 309 274  0.023 42.329   11  0.114   11  0.116   11  0.154   11 0.5142    2  1.286    2  0.406   21 -0.099
LIGHTNING      45 39 295 274  0.016 41.721   13  0.072   13  0.080   13  0.093   13 0.5096    3  1.278    4  0.334   22 -0.149
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.000 40.475   26 -0.116   26 -0.119   20 -0.064   26 0.4856    9  1.187   14  0.060   23 -0.187
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.007 40.592   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.001   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.187   24 -0.189
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.061   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   14  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.218
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.588   23 -0.064   22 -0.070   23 -0.090   22 0.4911    8  1.193   15  0.040   26 -0.220
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.011 40.904   25 -0.081   25 -0.086   25 -0.106   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.034   27 -0.246
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.002 41.193   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4477   31  0.887   32 -0.736   28 -0.269
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.000 40.512   24 -0.066   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.274   11  0.139   29 -0.333
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.644   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.362
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.075   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.271   29 0.4595   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.390
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.945   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.652   32 -0.538

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS          45 39 265 226 -0.001 40.947   14  0.060   14  0.066   10  0.168   14 0.5080   27  0.948   21  0.003    5  0.334
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.786    7  0.213    7  0.204    4  0.225    7 0.5251   18  1.056    9  0.186    6  0.265
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.018 40.009   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4779   32  0.835   29 -0.404    8  0.174
OILERS         50 34 305 246 -0.003 40.832    8  0.192    8  0.183    5  0.223    8 0.5219    7  1.197    3  0.360   10  0.087
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 37 274 249 -0.008 40.905   12  0.102   12  0.108   14  0.080   12 0.5134   15  1.101   12  0.095   12  0.064
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.588   23 -0.064   22 -0.070   23 -0.090   22 0.4911    8  1.193   15  0.040   26 -0.220
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.644   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.362
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.945   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.652   32 -0.538

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.003 40.839    4  0.251    4  0.250    6  0.220    4 0.5311   29  0.924   18  0.028    2  0.413
STARS          52 32 302 241 -0.003 40.837    5  0.234    5  0.229    7  0.216    5 0.5285   11  1.166    5  0.313    9  0.119
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.004 41.266   10  0.143   10  0.141   12  0.103   10 0.5173   12  1.135   10  0.160   14  0.046
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.009 40.193   15  0.028   15  0.038   21 -0.064   15 0.5051   25  1.009   26 -0.159   16  0.031
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.412   19 -0.040   19 -0.045   18 -0.023   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.001 40.989    6  0.217    6  0.208    9  0.201    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.487   20 -0.086
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.000 40.475   26 -0.116   26 -0.119   20 -0.064   26 0.4856    9  1.187   14  0.060   23 -0.187
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.002 41.193   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4477   31  0.887   32 -0.736   28 -0.269

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       54 30 273 204  0.009 41.154    2  0.275    2  0.280    2  0.268    2 0.5345   30  0.891   16  0.039    1  0.497
BRUINS         49 36 278 230  0.016 42.011    9  0.166    9  0.158    8  0.215    9 0.5193   26  0.962   13  0.065    3  0.365
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.004 40.487   18 -0.039   18 -0.045   17 -0.004   19 0.4940   24  1.027   22 -0.077   11  0.070
MAPLE LEAFS    47 38 309 274  0.023 42.329   11  0.114   11  0.116   11  0.154   11 0.5142    2  1.286    2  0.406   21 -0.099
LIGHTNING      45 39 295 274  0.016 41.721   13  0.072   13  0.080   13  0.093   13 0.5096    3  1.278    4  0.334   22 -0.149
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.007 40.592   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.001   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.187   24 -0.189
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.061   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   14  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.218
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.011 40.904   25 -0.081   25 -0.086   25 -0.106   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.034   27 -0.246

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.004 40.718    3  0.271    3  0.274    1  0.284    3 0.5334   23  1.028    7  0.212    4  0.357
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.007 40.670    1  0.335    1  0.342    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.247    7  0.226
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.002 40.351   22 -0.062   23 -0.071   15  0.033   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.015   13  0.050
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.157   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.125   17 0.4962   28  0.943   28 -0.296   15  0.046
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.687   21 -0.059   21 -0.064   19 -0.062   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.122   17 -0.002
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.019 42.085   20 -0.049   20 -0.055   22 -0.067   20 0.4931   19  1.055   23 -0.107   18 -0.027
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.000 40.512   24 -0.066   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.274   11  0.139   29 -0.333
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.075   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.271   29 0.4595   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.390

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     342 324 0.514    1  0.063
CENTRAL DIVISION      345 319 0.520    2  0.017
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 331 333 0.498    3 -0.011
PACIFIC DIVISION      311 353 0.468    4 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.101 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 25 05:30:12 2024
games through: Wed Apr 24 2024

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