Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        31 24 197 153  0.011 27.733   11  0.089   11  0.091    3  0.212   11 0.5171    3  1.190    1  0.373   14  0.051
CAPITALS         37 19 204 143  0.021 28.338    2  0.236    2  0.230    1  0.299    2 0.5402   17  1.077    2  0.319    5  0.279
JETS             40 17 206 137 -0.020 27.904    1  0.271    1  0.271    2  0.296    1 0.5475   19  1.036    3  0.267    2  0.325
SABRES           23 32 179 187 -0.019 27.427   28 -0.121   28 -0.122   18 -0.056   28 0.4782    1  1.296    4  0.244   31 -0.356
PANTHERS         34 24 193 167  0.012 29.419    8  0.125    8  0.127    8  0.100    8 0.5214    8  1.145    5  0.204   19 -0.003
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   34 23 188 156  0.005 28.663    5  0.137    5  0.137    5  0.165    5 0.5242   15  1.089    6  0.199    7  0.131
AVALANCHE        33 25 187 176  0.011 29.472   10  0.095   10  0.102   12  0.050   10 0.5171    6  1.171    7  0.186   23 -0.086
BLUE JACKETS     27 30 189 187 -0.011 28.554   17 -0.035   17 -0.042   15 -0.006   17 0.4928    2  1.214    8  0.186   27 -0.197
HURRICANES       33 24 187 160  0.025 29.167    9  0.122    9  0.124    7  0.140    9 0.5203   13  1.097    9  0.185    9  0.095
STARS            36 20 186 141 -0.006 27.807    3  0.201    3  0.194    4  0.211    3 0.5329   21  1.001   10  0.140    4  0.281
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS           34 22 185 158 -0.034 27.408    7  0.127    7  0.129   10  0.089    7 0.5233   14  1.097   11  0.134   16  0.045
MAPLE LEAFS      34 22 175 159  0.021 28.654    4  0.162    4  0.161   11  0.067    4 0.5278   16  1.079   12  0.089   15  0.045
CANADIENS        26 31 168 196  0.023 29.457   19 -0.044   18 -0.046   24 -0.090   19 0.4919    4  1.186   13  0.065   28 -0.245
RANGERS          27 29 167 176 -0.007 28.157   16 -0.024   16 -0.029   16 -0.021   16 0.4943   11  1.111   14  0.041   22 -0.082
DEVILS           31 27 177 146  0.013 29.386   13  0.050   13  0.055    6  0.160   13 0.5088   30  0.886   15 -0.040    1  0.361
PENGUINS         23 35 167 209  0.007 29.746   29 -0.146   29 -0.140   30 -0.198   29 0.4760    5  1.178   16 -0.052   30 -0.343
FLYERS           25 33 168 195  0.002 29.531   25 -0.094   25 -0.094   27 -0.124   25 0.4842   10  1.119   17 -0.053   26 -0.195
KRAKEN           25 33 171 184 -0.030 28.771   27 -0.113   27 -0.114   26 -0.119   27 0.4806   12  1.111   18 -0.058   25 -0.181
WILD             34 23 167 162  0.002 28.794    6  0.131    6  0.136   13  0.029    6 0.5237   25  0.980   19 -0.066    8  0.124
RED WINGS        28 28 163 175 -0.039 27.508   15 -0.020   15 -0.021   23 -0.078   15 0.4957   18  1.051   20 -0.089   21 -0.067
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS       17 39 150 196  0.005 28.709   31 -0.267   31 -0.267   31 -0.200   31 0.4537    9  1.129   21 -0.116   29 -0.284
KINGS            30 24 156 139  0.003 27.212   12  0.069   12  0.075    9  0.093   12 0.5136   32  0.871   22 -0.124    3  0.310
SENATORS         29 28 160 161  0.023 29.308   14  0.020   14  0.025   14  0.016   14 0.5050   27  0.938   23 -0.127    6  0.158
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 24 33 161 175  0.013 29.208   26 -0.099   26 -0.102   20 -0.071   26 0.4835   23  0.993   24 -0.150   18  0.009
CANUCKS          26 30 156 169 -0.021 27.872   22 -0.058   22 -0.061   17 -0.037   22 0.4891   26  0.951   25 -0.166   10  0.091
BLUES            25 32 157 175  0.010 29.145   24 -0.076   24 -0.079   22 -0.077   24 0.4858   24  0.982   26 -0.170   17  0.016
SHARKS           15 42 148 216 -0.009 29.040   32 -0.333   32 -0.334   32 -0.309   32 0.4414    7  1.169   27 -0.174   32 -0.443
BRUINS           27 31 159 185  0.003 29.522   18 -0.044   19 -0.047   25 -0.100   18 0.4927   22  0.996   28 -0.176   20 -0.024
PREDATORS        20 35 146 180  0.008 28.199   30 -0.191   30 -0.182   29 -0.160   30 0.4685   20  1.030   29 -0.197   24 -0.123
ISLANDERS        25 30 152 162 -0.010 27.644   23 -0.063   23 -0.066   19 -0.058   23 0.4887   28  0.934   30 -0.205   11  0.089
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES           26 29 148 165 -0.036 27.097   20 -0.052   21 -0.056   21 -0.075   21 0.4896   29  0.932   31 -0.225   12  0.075
DUCKS            25 30 140 167  0.011 28.228   21 -0.054   20 -0.054   28 -0.141   20 0.4903   31  0.881   32 -0.348   13  0.065

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   34 23 188 156  0.005 28.663    5  0.137    5  0.137    5  0.165    5 0.5242   15  1.089    6  0.199    7  0.131
OILERS           34 22 185 158 -0.034 27.408    7  0.127    7  0.129   10  0.089    7 0.5233   14  1.097   11  0.134   16  0.045
KRAKEN           25 33 171 184 -0.030 28.771   27 -0.113   27 -0.114   26 -0.119   27 0.4806   12  1.111   18 -0.058   25 -0.181
KINGS            30 24 156 139  0.003 27.212   12  0.069   12  0.075    9  0.093   12 0.5136   32  0.871   22 -0.124    3  0.310
CANUCKS          26 30 156 169 -0.021 27.872   22 -0.058   22 -0.061   17 -0.037   22 0.4891   26  0.951   25 -0.166   10  0.091
SHARKS           15 42 148 216 -0.009 29.040   32 -0.333   32 -0.334   32 -0.309   32 0.4414    7  1.169   27 -0.174   32 -0.443
FLAMES           26 29 148 165 -0.036 27.097   20 -0.052   21 -0.056   21 -0.075   21 0.4896   29  0.932   31 -0.225   12  0.075
DUCKS            25 30 140 167  0.011 28.228   21 -0.054   20 -0.054   28 -0.141   20 0.4903   31  0.881   32 -0.348   13  0.065

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             40 17 206 137 -0.020 27.904    1  0.271    1  0.271    2  0.296    1 0.5475   19  1.036    3  0.267    2  0.325
AVALANCHE        33 25 187 176  0.011 29.472   10  0.095   10  0.102   12  0.050   10 0.5171    6  1.171    7  0.186   23 -0.086
STARS            36 20 186 141 -0.006 27.807    3  0.201    3  0.194    4  0.211    3 0.5329   21  1.001   10  0.140    4  0.281
WILD             34 23 167 162  0.002 28.794    6  0.131    6  0.136   13  0.029    6 0.5237   25  0.980   19 -0.066    8  0.124
BLACKHAWKS       17 39 150 196  0.005 28.709   31 -0.267   31 -0.267   31 -0.200   31 0.4537    9  1.129   21 -0.116   29 -0.284
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 24 33 161 175  0.013 29.208   26 -0.099   26 -0.102   20 -0.071   26 0.4835   23  0.993   24 -0.150   18  0.009
BLUES            25 32 157 175  0.010 29.145   24 -0.076   24 -0.079   22 -0.077   24 0.4858   24  0.982   26 -0.170   17  0.016
PREDATORS        20 35 146 180  0.008 28.199   30 -0.191   30 -0.182   29 -0.160   30 0.4685   20  1.030   29 -0.197   24 -0.123

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         37 19 204 143  0.021 28.338    2  0.236    2  0.230    1  0.299    2 0.5402   17  1.077    2  0.319    5  0.279
BLUE JACKETS     27 30 189 187 -0.011 28.554   17 -0.035   17 -0.042   15 -0.006   17 0.4928    2  1.214    8  0.186   27 -0.197
HURRICANES       33 24 187 160  0.025 29.167    9  0.122    9  0.124    7  0.140    9 0.5203   13  1.097    9  0.185    9  0.095
RANGERS          27 29 167 176 -0.007 28.157   16 -0.024   16 -0.029   16 -0.021   16 0.4943   11  1.111   14  0.041   22 -0.082
DEVILS           31 27 177 146  0.013 29.386   13  0.050   13  0.055    6  0.160   13 0.5088   30  0.886   15 -0.040    1  0.361
PENGUINS         23 35 167 209  0.007 29.746   29 -0.146   29 -0.140   30 -0.198   29 0.4760    5  1.178   16 -0.052   30 -0.343
FLYERS           25 33 168 195  0.002 29.531   25 -0.094   25 -0.094   27 -0.124   25 0.4842   10  1.119   17 -0.053   26 -0.195
ISLANDERS        25 30 152 162 -0.010 27.644   23 -0.063   23 -0.066   19 -0.058   23 0.4887   28  0.934   30 -0.205   11  0.089

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        31 24 197 153  0.011 27.733   11  0.089   11  0.091    3  0.212   11 0.5171    3  1.190    1  0.373   14  0.051
SABRES           23 32 179 187 -0.019 27.427   28 -0.121   28 -0.122   18 -0.056   28 0.4782    1  1.296    4  0.244   31 -0.356
PANTHERS         34 24 193 167  0.012 29.419    8  0.125    8  0.127    8  0.100    8 0.5214    8  1.145    5  0.204   19 -0.003
MAPLE LEAFS      34 22 175 159  0.021 28.654    4  0.162    4  0.161   11  0.067    4 0.5278   16  1.079   12  0.089   15  0.045
CANADIENS        26 31 168 196  0.023 29.457   19 -0.044   18 -0.046   24 -0.090   19 0.4919    4  1.186   13  0.065   28 -0.245
RED WINGS        28 28 163 175 -0.039 27.508   15 -0.020   15 -0.021   23 -0.078   15 0.4957   18  1.051   20 -0.089   21 -0.067
SENATORS         29 28 160 161  0.023 29.308   14  0.020   14  0.025   14  0.016   14 0.5050   27  0.938   23 -0.127    6  0.158
BRUINS           27 31 159 185  0.003 29.522   18 -0.044   19 -0.047   25 -0.100   18 0.4927   22  0.996   28 -0.176   20 -0.024

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 228 227 0.501    1  0.036
ATLANTIC DIVISION     232 220 0.513    2  0.013
CENTRAL DIVISION      229 224 0.506    3  0.013
PACIFIC DIVISION      215 233 0.480    4 -0.063

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Feb 23 05:30:12 2025
games through: Sat Feb 22 2025

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