Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.002 41.009    6  0.218    6  0.209    9  0.201    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.488   20 -0.085
MAPLE LEAFS    47 37 307 270  0.021 41.765   11  0.127   11  0.127   11  0.162   11 0.5157    2  1.286    2  0.416   21 -0.091
LIGHTNING      45 39 295 274  0.017 41.735   13  0.072   13  0.081   13  0.093   13 0.5096    3  1.278    5  0.335   22 -0.148
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.000 40.524   24 -0.065   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.274   11  0.140   29 -0.333
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.008 40.600   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.000   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.188   24 -0.189
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.012 40.920   25 -0.080   25 -0.085   25 -0.106   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.035   27 -0.246
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.594   23 -0.064   22 -0.070   23 -0.090   22 0.4911    7  1.193   15  0.040   26 -0.220
OILERS         50 33 301 241 -0.004 40.303    8  0.204    8  0.196    5  0.227    8 0.5236    8  1.189    3  0.352   10  0.101
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.487   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   20 -0.063   26 0.4856    9  1.187   13  0.060   23 -0.186
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.087   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.271   29 0.4596   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.390
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS          52 31 301 238 -0.003 40.336    5  0.246    5  0.243    4  0.229    5 0.5303   11  1.174    4  0.335    9  0.122
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.005 41.285   10  0.143   10  0.142   12  0.104   10 0.5174   12  1.135   10  0.161   13  0.047
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.425   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.022   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 37 271 248 -0.012 40.307   12  0.087   12  0.094   14  0.068   12 0.5117   14  1.110   12  0.094   15  0.041
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.069   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   15  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.218
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.007 40.682    1  0.336    1  0.343    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.248    7  0.227
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.003 40.363   22 -0.061   23 -0.070   15  0.033   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.015   12  0.051
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.792    7  0.214    7  0.204    6  0.226    7 0.5251   18  1.056    9  0.187    6  0.265
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.019 42.098   20 -0.049   20 -0.054   22 -0.066   20 0.4932   19  1.055   23 -0.106   18 -0.026
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.650   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.361
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.949   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.652   32 -0.538
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.699   21 -0.059   21 -0.064   19 -0.062   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.121   17 -0.002
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.003 40.730    3  0.272    3  0.275    1  0.285    3 0.5334   23  1.028    7  0.212    3  0.358
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.005 40.503   18 -0.038   18 -0.044   17 -0.003   19 0.4941   24  1.027   22 -0.077   11  0.071
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.008 40.210   15  0.028   15  0.039   21 -0.063   15 0.5051   25  1.009   26 -0.159   16  0.032
BRUINS         48 36 274 228  0.013 41.441    9  0.152    9  0.147    8  0.207    9 0.5178   26  0.963   14  0.058    4  0.355
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.171   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.125   17 0.4962   27  0.943   28 -0.296   14  0.046
KINGS          44 39 260 222 -0.005 40.330   14  0.046   14  0.052   10  0.165   14 0.5063   28  0.939   21 -0.011    5  0.341
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.002 40.855    4  0.252    4  0.251    7  0.221    4 0.5311   29  0.924   18  0.028    2  0.413
PANTHERS       54 30 273 204  0.009 41.165    2  0.276    2  0.281    2  0.269    2 0.5345   30  0.891   16  0.040    1  0.497
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.211   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4478   31  0.887   32 -0.736   28 -0.268
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.017   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4779   32  0.835   29 -0.404    8  0.175

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.002 40.594   23 -0.064   22 -0.070   23 -0.090   22 0.4911    7  1.193   15  0.040   26 -0.220
OILERS         50 33 301 241 -0.004 40.303    8  0.204    8  0.196    5  0.227    8 0.5236    8  1.189    3  0.352   10  0.101
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 37 271 248 -0.012 40.307   12  0.087   12  0.094   14  0.068   12 0.5117   14  1.110   12  0.094   15  0.041
CANUCKS        51 33 283 229 -0.004 40.792    7  0.214    7  0.204    6  0.226    7 0.5251   18  1.056    9  0.187    6  0.265
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.015 40.650   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.406   30 0.4577   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.361
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.949   32 -0.540   32 -0.542   32 -0.595   32 0.4345   21  1.041   31 -0.652   32 -0.538
KINGS          44 39 260 222 -0.005 40.330   14  0.046   14  0.052   10  0.165   14 0.5063   28  0.939   21 -0.011    5  0.341
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.017   27 -0.184   27 -0.177   26 -0.115   27 0.4779   32  0.835   29 -0.404    8  0.175

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      51 33 315 263  0.002 41.009    6  0.218    6  0.209    9  0.201    6 0.5258    1  1.311    1  0.488   20 -0.085
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.487   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   20 -0.063   26 0.4856    9  1.187   13  0.060   23 -0.186
STARS          52 31 301 238 -0.003 40.336    5  0.246    5  0.243    4  0.229    5 0.5303   11  1.174    4  0.335    9  0.122
PREDATORS      48 36 275 253  0.005 41.285   10  0.143   10  0.142   12  0.104   10 0.5174   12  1.135   10  0.161   13  0.047
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.425   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.022   18 0.4943   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.008 40.210   15  0.028   15  0.039   21 -0.063   15 0.5051   25  1.009   26 -0.159   16  0.032
JETS           53 31 268 210 -0.002 40.855    4  0.252    4  0.251    7  0.221    4 0.5311   29  0.924   18  0.028    2  0.413
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.211   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4478   31  0.887   32 -0.736   28 -0.268

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    47 37 307 270  0.021 41.765   11  0.127   11  0.127   11  0.162   11 0.5157    2  1.286    2  0.416   21 -0.091
LIGHTNING      45 39 295 274  0.017 41.735   13  0.072   13  0.081   13  0.093   13 0.5096    3  1.278    5  0.335   22 -0.148
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.008 40.600   16  0.000   16  0.003   16 -0.000   16 0.5002    5  1.237    8  0.188   24 -0.189
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.012 40.920   25 -0.080   25 -0.085   25 -0.106   25 0.4890    6  1.200   17  0.035   27 -0.246
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.069   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   15  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.218
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.005 40.503   18 -0.038   18 -0.044   17 -0.003   19 0.4941   24  1.027   22 -0.077   11  0.071
BRUINS         48 36 274 228  0.013 41.441    9  0.152    9  0.147    8  0.207    9 0.5178   26  0.963   14  0.058    4  0.355
PANTHERS       54 30 273 204  0.009 41.165    2  0.276    2  0.281    2  0.269    2 0.5345   30  0.891   16  0.040    1  0.497

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.000 40.524   24 -0.065   24 -0.072   24 -0.097   23 0.4911    4  1.274   11  0.140   29 -0.333
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.008 41.087   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.271   29 0.4596   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.390
RANGERS        57 27 290 233 -0.007 40.682    1  0.336    1  0.343    3  0.237    1 0.5421   16  1.097    6  0.248    7  0.227
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.003 40.363   22 -0.061   23 -0.070   15  0.033   24 0.4910   17  1.074   19  0.015   12  0.051
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.019 42.098   20 -0.049   20 -0.054   22 -0.066   20 0.4932   19  1.055   23 -0.106   18 -0.026
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.007 40.699   21 -0.059   21 -0.064   19 -0.062   21 0.4915   22  1.039   24 -0.121   17 -0.002
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.003 40.730    3  0.272    3  0.275    1  0.285    3 0.5334   23  1.028    7  0.212    3  0.358
CAPITALS       40 44 224 265  0.018 42.171   17 -0.030   17 -0.031   27 -0.125   17 0.4962   27  0.943   28 -0.296   14  0.046

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     341 323 0.514    1  0.064
CENTRAL DIVISION      345 318 0.520    2  0.020
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 331 333 0.498    3 -0.010
PACIFIC DIVISION      309 352 0.467    4 -0.074

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.102 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr 24 05:30:14 2024
games through: Tue Apr 23 2024

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.