Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Knoxville                6 21 2106 2553 -0.365    1 -1.268    1 -1.199    2 -1.393    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.442    1  0.026    8 -2.812
Oakwood                  5 18 1739 1986 -0.279    2 -1.285    2 -1.220    1 -1.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.574    2 -0.256    1 -1.746
Penn St-Delaware Co     10  2 1078  880 -2.822    3 -1.985    3 -2.010    3 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.194    3 -0.884    9 -2.830
Miami-Middletown        14  5 1528 1290 -2.562    4 -2.018    4 -2.049    4 -1.964    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.009    7 -2.056    2 -1.872
Maryland Bible           4  6  682  727 -1.723    5 -2.089    5 -2.141    6 -2.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.821   14 -2.560    3 -1.910
Penn St-McKeesport       3  8  711  870 -1.459    6 -2.395    6 -2.450    5 -2.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.935    8 -2.176    4 -2.111
Penn St-DuBois           3  4  455  541 -2.552    7 -2.542    7 -2.671   19 -3.260    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.868   22 -3.457   10 -3.063
Union NE                11  7 1401 1351 -3.005    8 -2.571    8 -2.717   11 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.882   11 -2.363   13 -3.373
Ohio U-Eastern           2  6  619  791 -2.127    9 -2.582    9 -2.734   13 -3.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.767    5 -1.877   28 -4.313
Ohio U-Chillicothe       4  6  679  699 -2.306   10 -2.592   10 -2.752    7 -2.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.895   16 -2.814    5 -2.220
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio St-Lima             3  6  677  759 -2.226   11 -2.600   11 -2.766   12 -2.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.794   10 -2.297   14 -3.503
Ohio St-Newark           2 12  999 1271 -1.622   12 -2.673   12 -2.874    9 -2.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  6.700    4 -1.806   19 -3.704
Penn St-Schuylkill       3  4  481  582 -2.799   13 -2.677   13 -2.885   21 -3.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.372   21 -3.294   15 -3.576
Penn St-Fayette          2  8  626  915 -2.136   14 -2.743   14 -2.980   14 -3.107    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.264   19 -3.149   11 -3.064
Penn St-Harrisburg       8  9 1076 1186 -3.152   15 -2.835   15 -3.124   20 -3.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.961   23 -3.896    7 -2.798
Penn St-Hazleton         5  8  989 1013 -2.740   16 -2.936   16 -3.266   10 -2.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.770   12 -2.404   12 -3.178
Miami-Hamilton           2  5  507  561 -2.495   17 -2.978   17 -3.336   16 -3.131    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.548   15 -2.662   16 -3.601
Akron-Wayne              2  4  467  502 -2.691   18 -2.979   18 -3.338   15 -3.119    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.516    9 -2.278   24 -3.959
Concordia-St Louis       1 12  783 1206 -1.884   19 -3.020   19 -3.411   22 -3.521    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.233   20 -3.236   20 -3.806
IU East                  2  8  660  769 -2.115   20 -3.036   20 -3.445    8 -2.751    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.505   17 -2.833    6 -2.669
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
East-West                1 18 1236 1912 -1.672   21 -3.428   21 -3.838   17 -3.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.660    6 -2.042   27 -4.279
Penn Tech                1  9  730  859 -2.219   22 -3.439   22 -3.862   18 -3.174    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  4.693   13 -2.523   21 -3.825
Ohio U-Southern          2  8  693  864 -2.817   23 -3.444   23 -3.875   23 -3.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.365   18 -3.133   23 -3.923
Heritage Baptist         4 12  873 1277 -3.637   24 -3.448   24 -3.882   27 -4.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.011   32 -5.464   22 -3.834
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  7  404  768 -3.331   25 -3.460   25 -3.910   33 -5.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.822   31 -5.413   35 -5.114
Ohio U-Lancaster         4 16 1279 1525 -3.393   26 -3.713   26 -4.264   25 -4.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.641   26 -4.446   18 -3.609
Alexandria Tech          4  8  811  917 -4.392   27 -4.082   27 -4.793   31 -4.820    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.562   29 -4.978   30 -4.662
St Cloud Tech            4  8  869  945 -4.385   28 -4.084   28 -4.797   30 -4.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.589   27 -4.595   33 -5.018
Albany Pharmacy          1  9  624  832 -3.724   29 -4.169   29 -4.964   29 -4.708    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.408   28 -4.711   31 -4.705
Penn St-New Kensington   0  8  460  653 -2.735   30 -4.181   30 -4.986   24 -3.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.542   25 -4.241   17 -3.602
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Beaver           0  8  430  698 -2.969   31 -4.215   31 -5.087   28 -4.659    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.291   30 -5.131   25 -4.186
Crossroads Bible         0  9  559  915 -3.067   32 -4.253   32 -5.209   26 -4.553    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.112   24 -4.001   34 -5.105
Tyndale ON               1  5  333  406 -4.691   33 -4.304   33 -5.382   34 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.829   35 -5.989   29 -4.542
Trinity Lutheran         0  6  192  552 -1.350   34 -4.314   34 -5.413   38 -6.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.538   39 -8.068   37 -5.391
Patrick Henry            2  5  358  506 -5.312   35 -4.326   35 -5.478   36 -6.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.642   38 -6.969   36 -5.215
Eugene Bible             0  6  319  584 -3.776   36 -4.372   36 -5.614   37 -6.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  1.514   37 -6.926   38 -6.265
Messenger                0  8  326  821 -1.678   37 -4.389   37 -5.673   40 -7.444    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.338   40 -8.200   39 -6.688
Roanoke Bible            3  5  531  645 -6.150   38 -4.633   38 -6.010   39 -6.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.729   36 -6.497   40 -7.247
Pratt Institute          0 10  545  811 -4.155   39 -4.870   39 -6.336   35 -5.295    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  0.649   33 -5.849   32 -4.741
Webb Institute           0  2  107  123 -5.549   40 -4.898   40 -6.451   32 -5.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  0.528   34 -5.962   26 -4.227


Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-2.870 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Cincinnati-Clermont     22 12 2740 2496 -2.072      -1.814      -1.805      -1.709      0.0000      0.0000       9.772      -1.442      -1.976
Miami-Middletown        14  5 1528 1290 -2.562    4 -2.018    4 -2.049    4 -1.964    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.009    7 -2.056    2 -1.872
Ohio U-Eastern           2  6  619  791 -2.127    9 -2.582    9 -2.734   13 -3.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.767    5 -1.877   28 -4.313
Ohio U-Chillicothe       4  6  679  699 -2.306   10 -2.592   10 -2.752    7 -2.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.895   16 -2.814    5 -2.220
Ohio St-Lima             3  6  677  759 -2.226   11 -2.600   11 -2.766   12 -2.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.794   10 -2.297   14 -3.503
Ohio St-Newark           2 12  999 1271 -1.622   12 -2.673   12 -2.874    9 -2.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  6.700    4 -1.806   19 -3.704
Miami-Hamilton           2  5  507  561 -2.495   17 -2.978   17 -3.336   16 -3.131    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.548   15 -2.662   16 -3.601
Akron-Wayne              2  4  467  502 -2.691   18 -2.979   18 -3.338   15 -3.119    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.516    9 -2.278   24 -3.959
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  7  404  768 -3.331   25 -3.460   25 -3.910   33 -5.263    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  3.822   31 -5.413   35 -5.114
Ohio U-Lancaster         4 16 1279 1525 -3.393   26 -3.713   26 -4.264   25 -4.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  3.641   26 -4.446   18 -3.609

NIAC: strength=-4.664 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Crossroads MN           11 14 1912 2113 -4.164      -3.703      -4.251      -4.456      0.0000      0.0000       3.597      -3.578      -5.334
Alexandria Tech          4  8  811  917 -4.392   27 -4.082   27 -4.793   31 -4.820    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.562   29 -4.978   30 -4.662
St Cloud Tech            4  8  869  945 -4.385   28 -4.084   28 -4.797   30 -4.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.589   27 -4.595   33 -5.018

PSUAC: strength=-3.106 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Delaware Co     10  2 1078  880 -2.822    3 -1.985    3 -2.010    3 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.194    3 -0.884    9 -2.830
Penn St-McKeesport       3  8  711  870 -1.459    6 -2.395    6 -2.450    5 -2.143    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  7.935    8 -2.176    4 -2.111
Penn St-DuBois           3  4  455  541 -2.552    7 -2.542    7 -2.671   19 -3.260    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.868   22 -3.457   10 -3.063
Penn St-Schuylkill       3  4  481  582 -2.799   13 -2.677   13 -2.885   21 -3.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.372   21 -3.294   15 -3.576
Penn St-Fayette          2  8  626  915 -2.136   14 -2.743   14 -2.980   14 -3.107    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.264   19 -3.149   11 -3.064
Penn St-Harrisburg       8  9 1076 1186 -3.152   15 -2.835   15 -3.124   20 -3.347    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.961   23 -3.896    7 -2.798
Penn St-Hazleton         5  8  989 1013 -2.740   16 -2.936   16 -3.266   10 -2.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.770   12 -2.404   12 -3.178
Penn Tech                1  9  730  859 -2.219   22 -3.439   22 -3.862   18 -3.174    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  4.693   13 -2.523   21 -3.825
Penn St-New Kensington   0  8  460  653 -2.735   30 -4.181   30 -4.986   24 -3.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.542   25 -4.241   17 -3.602
Penn St-Beaver           0  8  430  698 -2.969   31 -4.215   31 -5.087   28 -4.659    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.291   30 -5.131   25 -4.186

Shena & Chesa: strength=-6.189 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Patrick Henry            2  5  358  506 -5.312   35 -4.326   35 -5.478   36 -6.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.642   38 -6.969   36 -5.215
Christendom              5 13 1147 1309 -5.336      -4.576      -6.167      -5.233      0.0000      0.0000       1.064      -5.516      -4.949
Roanoke Bible            3  5  531  645 -6.150   38 -4.633   38 -6.010   39 -6.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.729   36 -6.497   40 -7.247

Independents: strength=-4.257 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Knoxville                6 21 2106 2553 -0.365    1 -1.268    1 -1.199    2 -1.393    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.442    1  0.026    8 -2.812
Oakwood                  5 18 1739 1986 -0.279    2 -1.285    2 -1.220    1 -1.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.574    2 -0.256    1 -1.746
Maryland Bible           4  6  682  727 -1.723    5 -2.089    5 -2.141    6 -2.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.821   14 -2.560    3 -1.910
Union NE                11  7 1401 1351 -3.005    8 -2.571    8 -2.717   11 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.882   11 -2.363   13 -3.373
Concordia-St Louis       1 12  783 1206 -1.884   19 -3.020   19 -3.411   22 -3.521    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.233   20 -3.236   20 -3.806
IU East                  2  8  660  769 -2.115   20 -3.036   20 -3.445    8 -2.751    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.505   17 -2.833    6 -2.669
East-West                1 18 1236 1912 -1.672   21 -3.428   21 -3.838   17 -3.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.660    6 -2.042   27 -4.279
Ohio U-Southern          2  8  693  864 -2.817   23 -3.444   23 -3.875   23 -3.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.365   18 -3.133   23 -3.923
Heritage Baptist         4 12  873 1277 -3.637   24 -3.448   24 -3.882   27 -4.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.011   32 -5.464   22 -3.834
Albany Pharmacy          1  9  624  832 -3.724   29 -4.169   29 -4.964   29 -4.708    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.408   28 -4.711   31 -4.705
Crossroads Bible         0  9  559  915 -3.067   32 -4.253   32 -5.209   26 -4.553    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.112   24 -4.001   34 -5.105
Tyndale ON               1  5  333  406 -4.691   33 -4.304   33 -5.382   34 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.829   35 -5.989   29 -4.542
Trinity Lutheran         0  6  192  552 -1.350   34 -4.314   34 -5.413   38 -6.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.538   39 -8.068   37 -5.391
Eugene Bible             0  6  319  584 -3.776   36 -4.372   36 -5.614   37 -6.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  1.514   37 -6.926   38 -6.265
Messenger                0  8  326  821 -1.678   37 -4.389   37 -5.673   40 -7.444    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.338   40 -8.200   39 -6.688
Pratt Institute          0 10  545  811 -4.155   39 -4.870   39 -6.336   35 -5.295    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  0.649   33 -5.849   32 -4.741
Webb Institute           0  2  107  123 -5.549   40 -4.898   40 -6.451   32 -5.094    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  0.528   34 -5.962   26 -4.227

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio Regional Campus     56  79 0.415    1 -2.870
PSUAC                    35  68 0.340    2 -3.106
Independents             38 165 0.187    3 -4.257
NIAC                     19  30 0.388    4 -4.664
Shena & Chesa            10  23 0.303    5 -6.189

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.287 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:23:29 2019

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