Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arkansas Baptist        12 22 2589 2944  0.126    1 -0.090    1 -0.261    3 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 15.617    2  0.258    6 -1.589
Robt Morris-Springfield 10 15 1745 1808 -0.134    2 -0.459    2 -0.594    2 -0.504    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 14.258    4 -0.629    1 -0.378
Philander Smith         12 18 2596 2519 -0.324    3 -0.678    3 -0.790    1 -0.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 13.551    1  0.947    7 -1.646
Concordia AL             5 11 1270 1423 -0.641    4 -1.186    4 -1.141    5 -1.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.823    3 -0.236   12 -2.380
Rochester MI            20 12 2447 2089 -1.326    5 -1.296    5 -1.236    4 -0.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.791    6 -1.075    2 -0.756
Marygrove               11 21 2304 2564 -1.174    6 -1.525    6 -1.455    9 -1.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.584    7 -1.279    9 -1.942
Northwest Christian      6 14 1402 1558 -0.895    7 -1.544    7 -1.479    7 -1.433    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.642   10 -1.631    3 -1.235
Rhema Bible             18 21 2794 2817 -1.576    8 -1.679    8 -1.638    8 -1.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.205    9 -1.628    4 -1.342
Southern Virginia       10 19 2190 2308 -1.227    9 -1.768    9 -1.736    6 -1.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.100    5 -0.926    8 -1.890
Apprentice               6 18 1672 2013 -1.215   10 -1.833   10 -1.825   11 -1.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.560    8 -1.618   11 -2.020
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson & Wales FL       8 17 1666 1810 -1.510   11 -1.914   11 -1.911   10 -1.771    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.415   12 -2.157    5 -1.385
Florida College          6 16 1551 1848 -2.040   12 -2.337   12 -2.391   12 -2.456    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.822   11 -2.119   13 -2.792
Briarcliffe              8 14 1373 1476 -2.790   13 -2.672   13 -2.874   13 -2.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.675   13 -3.517   10 -1.946


USCAA-I: strength=-1.561 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arkansas Baptist        12 22 2589 2944  0.126    1 -0.090    1 -0.261    3 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 15.617    2  0.258    6 -1.589
Robt Morris-Springfield 10 15 1745 1808 -0.134    2 -0.459    2 -0.594    2 -0.504    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 14.258    4 -0.629    1 -0.378
Philander Smith         12 18 2596 2519 -0.324    3 -0.678    3 -0.790    1 -0.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 13.551    1  0.947    7 -1.646
Walla Walla             13 14 2168 2148 -1.029      -1.079      -1.049      -1.147      0.0000      0.0000      12.301      -0.742      -1.551
Concordia AL             5 11 1270 1423 -0.641    4 -1.186    4 -1.141    5 -1.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.823    3 -0.236   12 -2.380
Rochester MI            20 12 2447 2089 -1.326    5 -1.296    5 -1.236    4 -0.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 11.791    6 -1.075    2 -0.756
Columbia Union           6 20 1809 2359 -1.129      -1.466      -1.382      -1.994      0.0000      0.0000      10.781      -1.307      -2.682
Marygrove               11 21 2304 2564 -1.174    6 -1.525    6 -1.455    9 -1.611    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 10.584    7 -1.279    9 -1.942
Northwest Christian      6 14 1402 1558 -0.895    7 -1.544    7 -1.479    7 -1.433    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.642   10 -1.631    3 -1.235
William Jessup          10 21 2158 2379 -1.238      -1.665      -1.623      -1.513      0.0000      0.0000      10.260      -1.310      -1.715
Rhema Bible             18 21 2794 2817 -1.576    8 -1.679    8 -1.638    8 -1.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 10.205    9 -1.628    4 -1.342
Presentation             9 16 1631 1762 -1.509      -1.756      -1.721      -1.805      0.0000      0.0000       9.906      -2.320      -1.290
Southern Virginia       10 19 2190 2308 -1.227    9 -1.768    9 -1.736    6 -1.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 10.100    5 -0.926    8 -1.890
Apprentice               6 18 1672 2013 -1.215   10 -1.833   10 -1.825   11 -1.819    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  9.560    8 -1.618   11 -2.020
Johnson & Wales FL       8 17 1666 1810 -1.510   11 -1.914   11 -1.911   10 -1.771    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  9.415   12 -2.157    5 -1.385
Dallas                   3 20 1296 1616 -1.366      -2.321      -2.371      -2.122      0.0000      0.0000       8.010      -3.042      -1.202
Florida College          6 16 1551 1848 -2.040   12 -2.337   12 -2.391   12 -2.456    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.822   11 -2.119   13 -2.792
Briarcliffe              8 14 1373 1476 -2.790   13 -2.672   13 -2.874   13 -2.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.675   13 -3.517   10 -1.946

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-I                 173 309 0.359    1 -1.561

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.287 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:23:29 2019

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