Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Tennessee Temple        23  9 2600 2355 -0.381    1  0.214    1  0.047    1 -0.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 16.910    1  0.211    1 -0.481
Central Baptist         15 18 2587 2697 -0.851    2 -0.809    2 -0.881    4 -1.196    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.875    3 -0.597    5 -1.796
Bethany Lutheran        17 15 2367 2391 -1.006    3 -0.893    3 -0.913    2 -0.877    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.823    2 -0.522    2 -1.232
Walla Walla             13 14 2168 2148 -1.029    4 -1.079    4 -1.049    3 -1.147    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.301    4 -0.742    3 -1.551
Pensacola Christian     12 15 1965 2061 -1.481    5 -1.502    5 -1.427    5 -1.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.823    5 -1.434    4 -1.678


NCCAA-I-Central: strength=-1.124 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MidAmerica Nazarene     25 11 2661 2483  0.114       0.822       0.592       0.393      0.0000      0.0000      19.322       0.321       0.465
SW Assem of God         16 18 2548 2641 -0.538      -0.384      -0.529      -0.620      0.0000      0.0000      14.534      -0.502      -0.739
Central Baptist         15 18 2587 2697 -0.851    2 -0.809    2 -0.881    4 -1.196    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.875    3 -0.597    5 -1.796
Oklahoma Wesleyan        8 22 1945 2265 -1.146      -1.681      -1.640      -1.588      0.0000      0.0000      10.180      -1.765      -1.411
Central Christian KS     6 22 1805 2196 -1.414      -2.011      -2.036      -2.076      0.0000      0.0000       8.945      -2.143      -2.009

NCCAA-I-East: strength=-0.339 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Mt Vernon Nazarene      27  9 2958 2721 -0.239       0.617       0.427       0.144      0.0000      0.0000      18.554       0.779      -0.492
Nyack                   13 16 2230 2312  0.010       0.107      -0.077      -0.128      0.0000      0.0000      16.423       0.510      -0.766
Malone                  14 17 2441 2501 -0.345      -0.318      -0.475      -0.387      0.0000      0.0000      14.727       0.389      -1.162
Roberts Wesleyan        18 15 2464 2406 -0.599      -0.321      -0.479      -0.615      0.0000      0.0000      14.714      -0.660      -0.571
Geneva                  14 16 2358 2298 -0.559      -0.534      -0.673      -0.564      0.0000      0.0000      13.809      -0.191      -0.937

NCCAA-I-MidEast: strength=-1.314 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oakland City            18 11 2572 2094 -0.322       0.145      -0.032       0.064      0.0000      0.0000      16.652       0.877      -0.748
Bryan                   13 16 2064 2156 -0.734      -0.733      -0.844      -0.835      0.0000      0.0000      13.131      -0.806      -0.865
Asbury                  17 16 2626 2699 -1.487      -1.307      -1.249      -1.548      0.0000      0.0000      11.296      -0.731      -2.364
Mid-Continent            5 25 2237 2779 -2.397      -2.773      -3.036      -2.982      0.0000      0.0000       6.176      -2.205      -3.759

NCCAA-I-MidWest: strength=0.339 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Spring Arbor            23 13 2731 2679  0.013       0.529       0.358       0.025      0.0000      0.0000      18.094       0.362      -0.311
Indiana Wesleyan        17 13 2309 2116  0.234       0.457       0.292       0.689      0.0000      0.0000      18.238       0.825       0.553
Cedarville              20 11 2487 2250 -0.043       0.420       0.244       0.333      0.0000      0.0000      17.987       0.699      -0.033
Grace IN                16 16 2377 2375  0.091       0.189       0.020      -0.018      0.0000      0.0000      16.831       0.124      -0.160

NCCAA-I-North Central: strength=-0.960 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Judson IL               18 11 2329 2245 -0.986      -0.463      -0.600      -0.835      0.0000      0.0000      13.972      -0.045      -1.624
Northwestern MN         20  7 2015 1859 -1.400      -0.553      -0.693      -1.148      0.0000      0.0000      13.465      -1.267      -1.029
Bethel IN               10 20 2291 2285 -0.228      -0.681      -0.793      -0.340      0.0000      0.0000      13.528       0.158      -0.837
Trinity Int'l           14 16 2233 2246 -0.778      -0.768      -0.859      -0.887      0.0000      0.0000      13.033      -0.651      -1.123
Bethany Lutheran        17 15 2367 2391 -1.006    3 -0.893    3 -0.913    2 -0.877    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.823    2 -0.522    2 -1.232
Trinity Christian       11 17 1949 1995 -0.657      -1.014      -0.990      -0.829      0.0000      0.0000      12.614      -1.122      -0.536
Greenville               6 18 1665 1835 -1.480      -2.084      -2.132      -1.771      0.0000      0.0000       8.861      -1.422      -2.121

NCCAA-I-Northwest: strength=-1.074 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Walla Walla             13 14 2168 2148 -1.029    4 -1.079    4 -1.049    3 -1.147    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 12.301    4 -0.742    3 -1.551

NCCAA-I-South: strength=-0.311 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern Wesleyan       19 14 2432 2420  0.221       0.608       0.418       0.221      0.0000      0.0000      18.569       0.336       0.105
Chowan                  20 11 2390 2233 -0.285       0.234       0.068       0.047      0.0000      0.0000      17.161       0.101      -0.008
Tennessee Temple        23  9 2600 2355 -0.381    1  0.214    1  0.047    1 -0.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 16.910    1  0.211    1 -0.481
Faulkner                14 12 1998 1875 -0.027       0.189       0.019       0.268      0.0000      0.0000      16.992       0.521       0.015
Emmanuel GA             13 17 2204 2206 -0.211      -0.197      -0.355      -0.198      0.0000      0.0000      15.441      -0.153      -0.243
North Greenville        13 17 2238 2182 -0.305      -0.264      -0.429      -0.262      0.0000      0.0000      15.072      -0.157      -0.368
Palm Beach Atlantic      6 25 2114 2638 -0.193      -0.789      -0.859      -1.100      0.0000      0.0000      12.937      -0.521      -1.679
Pensacola Christian     12 15 1965 2061 -1.481    5 -1.502    5 -1.427    5 -1.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.823    5 -1.434    4 -1.678

NCCAA-I-West: strength=-1.316 (#8)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
The Master's College    12 17 2158 2204  0.207       0.129      -0.052       0.027      0.0000      0.0000      16.479       0.417      -0.364
Hope Int'l               0 27 1685 2378 -0.116      -1.795      -1.772      -1.557      0.0000      0.0000       9.798      -1.486      -1.627
Simpson CA               8 20 1940 2196 -1.422      -1.852      -1.850      -1.718      0.0000      0.0000       9.484      -1.469      -1.968

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I-MidWest          76  53 0.589    1  0.339
NCCAA-I-South           120 120 0.500    2 -0.311
NCCAA-I-East             86  73 0.541    3 -0.339
NCCAA-I-North Central    96 104 0.480    4 -0.960
NCCAA-I-Northwest        13  14 0.481    5 -1.074
NCCAA-I-Central          70  91 0.435    6 -1.124
NCCAA-I-MidEast          53  68 0.438    7 -1.314
NCCAA-I-West             20  64 0.238    8 -1.316

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.287 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:23:29 2019

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