Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     29  5 2962 2573 -0.180    1  0.975    1  0.734    4  0.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 19.850    1  1.282   18 -0.586
Victoria                28  8 2602 2247 -0.031    2  0.836    2  0.597    2  0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.457   18 -0.267    1  1.418
Carleton ON             31  4 2711 2090 -0.406    3  0.830    3  0.590    1  0.586    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 19.524    4  0.432    2  0.740
UCCB                    29  6 2656 2339 -0.440    4  0.635    4  0.446    6  0.162    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 18.697    9  0.095    6  0.230
St Francis Xavier       28  7 2714 2290 -0.340    5  0.558    5  0.368    3  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.529    5  0.389    4  0.393
McMaster                30  7 3026 2632 -0.491    6  0.474    6  0.310    5  0.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.049    2  0.865   14 -0.394
Ottawa ON               28  9 2718 2316 -0.405    7  0.393    7  0.211    8  0.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 17.766   19 -0.269    5  0.341
Concordia QC            20  8 2256 2038 -0.394    8  0.226    8  0.059    7  0.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 17.098    3  0.767   22 -0.621
Laval                   22 10 2376 2067 -0.433    9  0.130    9 -0.052    9 -0.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 16.691   17 -0.235    7  0.221
Regina                  25 11 2929 2736 -0.680   10  0.000   10 -0.170   14 -0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.932   10  0.065   26 -0.822
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Toronto                 21 11 2232 2052 -0.539   11 -0.002   11 -0.173   11 -0.260    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 16.021   27 -0.661    8  0.142
St Mary's NS            20 13 2291 2251 -0.511   12 -0.056   12 -0.221   15 -0.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.783   29 -0.761   10 -0.066
Saskatchewan            23 14 2848 2593 -0.530   13 -0.114   13 -0.290   10 -0.190    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.728   16 -0.235   12 -0.146
Brock                   22 12 2363 2285 -0.665   14 -0.116   14 -0.293   19 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 15.582   28 -0.740   13 -0.246
York ON                 20 16 2633 2612 -0.481   15 -0.134   15 -0.311   17 -0.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.442   13 -0.173   25 -0.743
Guelph                  19 13 2020 1960 -0.561   16 -0.182   16 -0.338   18 -0.469    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.299   37 -1.382    3  0.445
Waterloo                20 13 2374 2270 -0.659   17 -0.221   17 -0.381   23 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.156   24 -0.557   21 -0.612
Memorial                16 17 2485 2653 -0.462   18 -0.291   18 -0.446   30 -0.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.699   11 -0.052   37 -1.433
Alberta                 15 17 2372 2379 -0.389   19 -0.333   19 -0.488   16 -0.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.727   20 -0.332   17 -0.538
Trinity Western         12 12 1935 1890 -0.451   20 -0.342   20 -0.499   13 -0.376    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.735    7  0.239   30 -0.992
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                 16 16 2597 2604 -0.611   21 -0.429   21 -0.577   26 -0.665    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.230    8  0.118   39 -1.449
UQAM                    11 16 1944 2068 -0.435   22 -0.473   22 -0.609   21 -0.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.094   14 -0.196   27 -0.888
Windsor                 14 16 2046 1983 -0.554   23 -0.548   23 -0.687   12 -0.372    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 13.840   30 -0.771    9  0.028
Calgary                 11 17 2265 2333 -0.411   24 -0.553   24 -0.692   20 -0.519    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.735    6  0.265   35 -1.303
Lethbridge U.           10 20 2209 2456 -0.302   25 -0.567   25 -0.709   31 -0.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.497   21 -0.464   32 -1.182
Bishop's                11 14 1691 1669 -0.585   26 -0.634   26 -0.763   22 -0.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.542   33 -0.959   11 -0.127
UPEI                    12 19 2136 2255 -0.500   27 -0.667   27 -0.778   25 -0.612    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.398   26 -0.619   20 -0.605
Laurier                 14 22 2414 2549 -0.518   28 -0.671   28 -0.782   24 -0.607    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.380   31 -0.792   15 -0.423
UNB                     13 20 2342 2431 -0.540   29 -0.697   29 -0.812   27 -0.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.304   22 -0.522   28 -0.932
Dalhousie               12 19 2089 2178 -0.590   30 -0.761   30 -0.852   32 -0.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.135   34 -1.148   23 -0.668
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Winnipeg                13 18 2437 2453 -0.642   31 -0.762   31 -0.853   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.155   15 -0.226   34 -1.252
Lakehead                13 18 2250 2347 -0.711   32 -0.797   32 -0.868   34 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 12.958   25 -0.575   38 -1.435
Simon Fraser             8 20 2024 2206 -0.416   33 -0.956   34 -0.990   28 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 12.622   23 -0.544   29 -0.934
Thompson Rivers          9 22 2427 2794 -0.565   34 -1.003   33 -0.976   37 -1.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 12.471   12 -0.131   42 -2.421
Laurentian              12 20 2092 2191 -0.728   35 -1.047   35 -1.024   33 -0.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.515   35 -1.243   19 -0.593
Queen's ON               9 23 1914 2150 -0.800   36 -1.330   36 -1.279   35 -1.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.312   40 -1.954   16 -0.535
Manitoba                 6 24 2203 2473 -0.721   37 -1.530   37 -1.460   38 -1.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.834   32 -0.941   40 -1.611
Ryerson                  8 26 2254 2476 -0.788   38 -1.542   38 -1.475   36 -1.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.872   36 -1.292   33 -1.221
Acadia                   5 24 1887 2220 -0.752   39 -1.612   39 -1.557   41 -1.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.453   38 -1.575   36 -1.409
McGill                   3 23 1568 1897 -0.554   40 -1.622   40 -1.568   40 -1.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.449   41 -1.974   24 -0.702
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Western ON               5 26 1946 2243 -0.724   41 -1.648   41 -1.602   39 -1.335    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.397   39 -1.662   31 -1.008
RMC                      0 33 1616 2668 -1.062   42 -2.489   42 -2.587   42 -3.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  7.024   42 -3.982   41 -2.300


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.558 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UCCB                    29  6 2656 2339 -0.440    4  0.635    4  0.446    6  0.162    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 18.697    9  0.095    6  0.230
St Francis Xavier       28  7 2714 2290 -0.340    5  0.558    5  0.368    3  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.529    5  0.389    4  0.393
St Mary's NS            20 13 2291 2251 -0.511   12 -0.056   12 -0.221   15 -0.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.783   29 -0.761   10 -0.066
Memorial                16 17 2485 2653 -0.462   18 -0.291   18 -0.446   30 -0.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.699   11 -0.052   37 -1.433
UPEI                    12 19 2136 2255 -0.500   27 -0.667   27 -0.778   25 -0.612    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.398   26 -0.619   20 -0.605
UNB                     13 20 2342 2431 -0.540   29 -0.697   29 -0.812   27 -0.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.304   22 -0.522   28 -0.932
Dalhousie               12 19 2089 2178 -0.590   30 -0.761   30 -0.852   32 -0.908    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.135   34 -1.148   23 -0.668
Acadia                   5 24 1887 2220 -0.752   39 -1.612   39 -1.557   41 -1.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.453   38 -1.575   36 -1.409

Canada West: strength=-0.497 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     29  5 2962 2573 -0.180    1  0.975    1  0.734    4  0.348    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 19.850    1  1.282   18 -0.586
Victoria                28  8 2602 2247 -0.031    2  0.836    2  0.597    2  0.575    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.457   18 -0.267    1  1.418
Regina                  25 11 2929 2736 -0.680   10  0.000   10 -0.170   14 -0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.932   10  0.065   26 -0.822
Saskatchewan            23 14 2848 2593 -0.530   13 -0.114   13 -0.290   10 -0.190    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.728   16 -0.235   12 -0.146
Alberta                 15 17 2372 2379 -0.389   19 -0.333   19 -0.488   16 -0.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.727   20 -0.332   17 -0.538
Trinity Western         12 12 1935 1890 -0.451   20 -0.342   20 -0.499   13 -0.376    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.735    7  0.239   30 -0.992
Brandon                 16 16 2597 2604 -0.611   21 -0.429   21 -0.577   26 -0.665    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.230    8  0.118   39 -1.449
Calgary                 11 17 2265 2333 -0.411   24 -0.553   24 -0.692   20 -0.519    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.735    6  0.265   35 -1.303
Lethbridge U.           10 20 2209 2456 -0.302   25 -0.567   25 -0.709   31 -0.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.497   21 -0.464   32 -1.182
Winnipeg                13 18 2437 2453 -0.642   31 -0.762   31 -0.853   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.155   15 -0.226   34 -1.252
Simon Fraser             8 20 2024 2206 -0.416   33 -0.956   34 -0.990   28 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 12.622   23 -0.544   29 -0.934
Thompson Rivers          9 22 2427 2794 -0.565   34 -1.003   33 -0.976   37 -1.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 12.471   12 -0.131   42 -2.421
Manitoba                 6 24 2203 2473 -0.721   37 -1.530   37 -1.460   38 -1.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.834   32 -0.941   40 -1.611

CIS-Ontario: strength=-0.653 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             31  4 2711 2090 -0.406    3  0.830    3  0.590    1  0.586    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 19.524    4  0.432    2  0.740
McMaster                30  7 3026 2632 -0.491    6  0.474    6  0.310    5  0.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.049    2  0.865   14 -0.394
Ottawa ON               28  9 2718 2316 -0.405    7  0.393    7  0.211    8  0.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 17.766   19 -0.269    5  0.341
Toronto                 21 11 2232 2052 -0.539   11 -0.002   11 -0.173   11 -0.260    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 16.021   27 -0.661    8  0.142
Brock                   22 12 2363 2285 -0.665   14 -0.116   14 -0.293   19 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 15.582   28 -0.740   13 -0.246
York ON                 20 16 2633 2612 -0.481   15 -0.134   15 -0.311   17 -0.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.442   13 -0.173   25 -0.743
Guelph                  19 13 2020 1960 -0.561   16 -0.182   16 -0.338   18 -0.469    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.299   37 -1.382    3  0.445
Waterloo                20 13 2374 2270 -0.659   17 -0.221   17 -0.381   23 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.156   24 -0.557   21 -0.612
Windsor                 14 16 2046 1983 -0.554   23 -0.548   23 -0.687   12 -0.372    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 13.840   30 -0.771    9  0.028
Laurier                 14 22 2414 2549 -0.518   28 -0.671   28 -0.782   24 -0.607    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.380   31 -0.792   15 -0.423
Lakehead                13 18 2250 2347 -0.711   32 -0.797   32 -0.868   34 -1.005    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 12.958   25 -0.575   38 -1.435
Laurentian              12 20 2092 2191 -0.728   35 -1.047   35 -1.024   33 -0.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 12.515   35 -1.243   19 -0.593
Queen's ON               9 23 1914 2150 -0.800   36 -1.330   36 -1.279   35 -1.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.312   40 -1.954   16 -0.535
Ryerson                  8 26 2254 2476 -0.788   38 -1.542   38 -1.475   36 -1.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 10.872   36 -1.292   33 -1.221
Western ON               5 26 1946 2243 -0.724   41 -1.648   41 -1.602   39 -1.335    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.397   39 -1.662   31 -1.008
RMC                      0 33 1616 2668 -1.062   42 -2.489   42 -2.587   42 -3.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  7.024   42 -3.982   41 -2.300

CIS-Quebec: strength=-0.457 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia QC            20  8 2256 2038 -0.394    8  0.226    8  0.059    7  0.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 17.098    3  0.767   22 -0.621
Laval                   22 10 2376 2067 -0.433    9  0.130    9 -0.052    9 -0.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 16.691   17 -0.235    7  0.221
UQAM                    11 16 1944 2068 -0.435   22 -0.473   22 -0.609   21 -0.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.094   14 -0.196   27 -0.888
Bishop's                11 14 1691 1669 -0.585   26 -0.634   26 -0.763   22 -0.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.542   33 -0.959   11 -0.127
McGill                   3 23 1568 1897 -0.554   40 -1.622   40 -1.568   40 -1.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.449   41 -1.974   24 -0.702

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CIS-Quebec               67  71 0.486    1 -0.457
Canada West             205 204 0.501    2 -0.497
CIS-Atlantic            135 125 0.519    3 -0.558
CIS-Ontario             266 269 0.497    4 -0.653

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.287 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:23:29 2019

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