Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dean                    13 11 1979 1923 -1.866    1 -1.764    1 -1.830    1 -1.888    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.289    3 -1.472    2 -2.304
Barber-Scotia            6  5  942 1002 -2.050    2 -1.905    2 -1.964    4 -2.339    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.567    1 -1.179    7 -3.500
Miami-Hamilton          14  6 1716 1475 -2.790    3 -2.298    3 -2.436    5 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.490    6 -2.333    3 -2.456
Miami-Middletown        12  7 1654 1510 -2.566    4 -2.310    4 -2.454    3 -2.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.420    4 -1.823    4 -2.747
Salish Kootenai          1  8  624  955 -1.546    5 -2.657    5 -2.914   12 -3.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.931    7 -2.500   13 -4.609
Red River               10  2 1071  880 -4.017    6 -2.804    6 -3.138    7 -3.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.800   12 -3.151    6 -3.176
Ohio St-Lima             3 10  867 1090 -2.514    7 -2.877    7 -3.273    8 -3.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.457   15 -3.589    5 -3.079
Bristol                  0  9  506  783 -0.098    8 -2.999    8 -3.486    2 -2.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.538    8 -2.569    1 -1.893
East-West                0 17 1329 1747 -0.523    9 -3.007    9 -3.502    6 -2.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.444    2 -1.189    9 -3.682
Ohio U-Chillicothe       3  9  960 1162 -3.022   10 -3.096   10 -3.699   15 -3.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.283   10 -2.878   16 -4.747
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Canadian Mennonite       9  9 1510 1510 -3.740   11 -3.105   11 -3.717   13 -3.751    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.414   14 -3.360   12 -4.142
Ohio U-Lancaster         4  8  948 1062 -3.128   12 -3.143   12 -3.779   11 -3.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.356   11 -3.051   11 -4.042
Akron-Wayne              3 11 1149 1367 -2.902   13 -3.209   13 -3.901   10 -3.501    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.034    5 -2.264   15 -4.737
Ohio U-Eastern           3  5  648  640 -3.249   14 -3.217   14 -3.916    9 -3.365    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.230   13 -3.226    8 -3.504
Oglala Lakota            0  9  641  987 -1.361   15 -3.289   15 -4.064   14 -3.782    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.672    9 -2.858   14 -4.706
Northwest Indian         0 24 1303 2791  1.442   16 -3.395   16 -4.295   17 -4.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.132   16 -4.259   20 -5.138
Cooper Union             5  1  437  363 -5.782   17 -3.399   17 -4.326   20 -5.010    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.179   21 -5.238   17 -4.782
Ohio St-Mansfield        1 10  709 1149 -3.585   18 -3.535   18 -4.653   18 -4.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.698   17 -4.303   21 -5.297
Burman                   1 10  725 1015 -3.650   19 -3.633   19 -4.734   19 -4.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  2.533   18 -4.756   19 -4.923
Union NE                 1  7  546  807 -3.894   20 -3.635   20 -4.741   22 -5.440    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  2.464   19 -5.116   22 -5.763
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New School               2  4  363  429 -4.849   21 -3.683   21 -4.923   16 -4.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.318   20 -5.148   10 -3.961
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  5  294  520 -3.835   22 -3.736   22 -5.079   23 -5.979    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  1.826   23 -6.040   23 -5.917
Winnipeg Coll            0 10  679  886 -4.077   23 -4.070   23 -5.707   21 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  1.532   22 -5.659   18 -4.872


Indep: strength=-3.870 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dean                    13 11 1979 1923 -1.866    1 -1.764    1 -1.830    1 -1.888    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  9.289    3 -1.472    2 -2.304
Barber-Scotia            6  5  942 1002 -2.050    2 -1.905    2 -1.964    4 -2.339    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  8.567    1 -1.179    7 -3.500
Salish Kootenai          1  8  624  955 -1.546    5 -2.657    5 -2.914   12 -3.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.931    7 -2.500   13 -4.609
Bristol                  0  9  506  783 -0.098    8 -2.999    8 -3.486    2 -2.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.538    8 -2.569    1 -1.893
East-West                0 17 1329 1747 -0.523    9 -3.007    9 -3.502    6 -2.435    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.444    2 -1.189    9 -3.682
Oglala Lakota            0  9  641  987 -1.361   15 -3.289   15 -4.064   14 -3.782    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.672    9 -2.858   14 -4.706
Northwest Indian         0 24 1303 2791  1.442   16 -3.395   16 -4.295   17 -4.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.132   16 -4.259   20 -5.138
Cooper Union             5  1  437  363 -5.782   17 -3.399   17 -4.326   20 -5.010    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.179   21 -5.238   17 -4.782
Burman                   1 10  725 1015 -3.650   19 -3.633   19 -4.734   19 -4.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  2.533   18 -4.756   19 -4.923
Union NE                 1  7  546  807 -3.894   20 -3.635   20 -4.741   22 -5.440    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  2.464   19 -5.116   22 -5.763
New School               2  4  363  429 -4.849   21 -3.683   21 -4.923   16 -4.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.318   20 -5.148   10 -3.961

Man CAC: strength=-4.087 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Red River               10  2 1071  880 -4.017    6 -2.804    6 -3.138    7 -3.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.800   12 -3.151    6 -3.176
Canadian Mennonite       9  9 1510 1510 -3.740   11 -3.105   11 -3.717   13 -3.751    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.414   14 -3.360   12 -4.142
Providence MB            8 15 2028 2243 -3.741      -3.163      -3.816      -3.972      0.0000      0.0000       4.204      -2.375      -5.570
Winnipeg Coll            0 10  679  886 -4.077   23 -4.070   23 -5.707   21 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  1.532   22 -5.659   18 -4.872

ORCC: strength=-3.525 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          14  6 1716 1475 -2.790    3 -2.298    3 -2.436    5 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.490    6 -2.333    3 -2.456
Miami-Middletown        12  7 1654 1510 -2.566    4 -2.310    4 -2.454    3 -2.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  7.420    4 -1.823    4 -2.747
Ohio St-Lima             3 10  867 1090 -2.514    7 -2.877    7 -3.273    8 -3.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.457   15 -3.589    5 -3.079
Ohio U-Chillicothe       3  9  960 1162 -3.022   10 -3.096   10 -3.699   15 -3.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.283   10 -2.878   16 -4.747
Ohio U-Lancaster         4  8  948 1062 -3.128   12 -3.143   12 -3.779   11 -3.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.356   11 -3.051   11 -4.042
Akron-Wayne              3 11 1149 1367 -2.902   13 -3.209   13 -3.901   10 -3.501    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.034    5 -2.264   15 -4.737
Ohio U-Eastern           3  5  648  640 -3.249   14 -3.217   14 -3.916    9 -3.365    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.230   13 -3.226    8 -3.504
Ohio St-Mansfield        1 10  709 1149 -3.585   18 -3.535   18 -4.653   18 -4.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.698   17 -4.303   21 -5.297
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  5  294  520 -3.835   22 -3.736   22 -5.079   23 -5.979    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  1.826   23 -6.040   23 -5.917

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ORCC             43  71 0.377    1 -3.525
Indep            29 105 0.216    2 -3.870
Man CAC          27  36 0.429    3 -4.087

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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