Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bethesda                 6 16 1732 2056  0.159    1 -0.369    1 -0.479    1 -0.766    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.607    1  0.263    5 -1.795
Life Pacific             9 14 1647 1837 -0.575    2 -0.878    2 -0.935    2 -1.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.809    3 -1.015    1 -0.993
Grace NE                11 14 2001 2081 -0.760    3 -0.902    3 -0.966    3 -1.048    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.710    2 -0.531    3 -1.565
Hiwassee                 5 16 1494 1807 -0.876    4 -1.620    4 -1.646    5 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.930    6 -1.392    4 -1.695
Morthland                7  9 1315 1301 -1.625    5 -1.792    5 -1.864    6 -1.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.283    4 -1.074    6 -2.102
Columbia Int'l           9 16 1923 2123 -1.917    6 -2.075    6 -2.172   10 -2.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.016   10 -2.123    8 -2.583
New Hope Christian       3 13 1241 1547 -1.378    7 -2.097    7 -2.203    9 -2.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  7.906    8 -1.513   10 -3.096
Carver                   0 16 1052 1347  0.019    8 -2.187    8 -2.281    4 -1.374    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  8.291    7 -1.427    2 -1.321
Yellowstone Christian    0 15 1021 1324 -0.400    9 -2.346    9 -2.504    7 -1.828    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.454    9 -1.527    7 -2.129
Ecclesia                 5 16 1740 1950 -1.716   10 -2.466   10 -2.694    8 -2.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.930    5 -1.253   11 -3.239
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Selma U.                 0 23 1488 2223 -0.518   11 -2.494   11 -2.724   11 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.598   11 -2.282    9 -2.926
Providence MB            8 15 2028 2243 -3.741   12 -3.163   12 -3.816   12 -3.972    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.204   12 -2.375   12 -5.570


NCCAA-I Cen: strength=-0.451 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dallas Baptist          23 12 2973 2557  0.348       0.965       0.646       0.871      0.0000      0.0000      19.613       1.193       0.549
Colorado Christian      19 19 3061 3071  0.428       0.680       0.423       0.332      0.0000      0.0000      18.592       0.827      -0.163
SW Assem of God         23 10 2623 2437 -0.231       0.545       0.278       0.101      0.0000      0.0000      17.802      -0.009       0.210
York NE                 26 10 3226 3009 -0.465       0.292       0.074      -0.090      0.0000      0.0000      17.148       0.825      -1.005
SW Christian            21 13 2742 2482 -0.243       0.240       0.018       0.186      0.0000      0.0000      17.096       0.020       0.351
Central Baptist         23 16 3138 2979 -0.267       0.209       0.003      -0.147      0.0000      0.0000      16.829       0.241      -0.535
Oklahoma Baptist U.      7 20 1925 2153  0.307      -0.091      -0.226      -0.278      0.0000      0.0000      15.701      -0.377      -0.179
Coll of the Ozarks MO   20 10 2395 2157 -0.766      -0.244      -0.377      -0.449      0.0000      0.0000      15.190      -0.554      -0.345
Mid-America Christian   16 17 2835 2735 -0.332      -0.244      -0.376      -0.359      0.0000      0.0000      15.213       0.294      -1.012
Central Christian KS    23 12 2751 2449 -0.959      -0.447      -0.570      -0.536      0.0000      0.0000      14.346      -0.982      -0.090
Oklahoma Wesleyan       13 19 2571 2692 -0.643      -0.757      -0.847      -0.926      0.0000      0.0000      13.179      -0.529      -1.324
Grace NE                11 14 2001 2081 -0.760    3 -0.902    3 -0.966    3 -1.048    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.710    2 -0.531    3 -1.565
McMurry                  9 16 1984 2084 -0.832      -1.159      -1.191      -1.207      0.0000      0.0000      11.554      -0.931      -1.482
Crowley's Ridge          9 21 2414 2729 -1.314      -1.579      -1.596      -1.838      0.0000      0.0000       9.917      -0.946      -2.730
Ecclesia                 5 16 1740 1950 -1.716   10 -2.466   10 -2.694    8 -2.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.930    5 -1.253   11 -3.239

NCCAA-I Mid-E: strength=-1.152 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lee TN                  11 17 2089 2150  0.321       0.290       0.073       0.167      0.0000      0.0000      17.323       0.031       0.303
Campbellsville          15 15 2339 2193 -0.210      -0.118      -0.252      -0.010      0.0000      0.0000      15.906      -0.001      -0.019
Bluefield VA            13 19 2419 2482 -0.804      -0.984      -1.049      -0.912      0.0000      0.0000      12.504      -1.070      -0.755
Alice Lloyd             12 19 2293 2400 -1.321      -1.518      -1.522      -1.483      0.0000      0.0000      10.283      -1.790      -1.176
Hiwassee                 5 16 1494 1807 -0.876    4 -1.620    4 -1.646    5 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.930    6 -1.392    4 -1.695
Morthland                7  9 1315 1301 -1.625    5 -1.792    5 -1.864    6 -1.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.283    4 -1.074    6 -2.102
Belhaven                 4 21 1837 2205 -1.360      -2.111      -2.221      -2.183      0.0000      0.0000       7.893      -1.863      -2.503

NCCAA-I Mid-W: strength=-0.844 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Indiana Wesleyan        29  9 3302 2950 -0.049       0.845       0.560       0.380      0.0000      0.0000      19.041       0.866      -0.106
Cedarville              13 17 2271 2272 -0.036      -0.069      -0.202      -0.045      0.0000      0.0000      16.182      -0.212       0.123
Huntington IN           16 15 2647 2583 -0.341      -0.210      -0.340      -0.358      0.0000      0.0000      15.276       0.256      -0.973
Ohio Christian          21 17 3143 2986 -0.529      -0.299      -0.415      -0.268      0.0000      0.0000      15.032      -0.035      -0.501
Grace IN                15 19 2748 2806 -0.341      -0.393      -0.510      -0.539      0.0000      0.0000      14.625      -0.051      -1.027
Northwestern MN         20  8 2243 1948 -1.278      -0.686      -0.785      -0.576      0.0000      0.0000      13.501      -0.843      -0.309
Roberts Wesleyan         3 25 2091 2366  0.003      -0.956      -1.011      -0.547      0.0000      0.0000      12.853      -0.242      -0.852
Oakland City            15  8 1878 1734 -2.112      -1.027      -1.096      -1.401      0.0000      0.0000      11.822      -1.382      -1.421
Cincinnati Christian U. 13 18 2594 2519 -0.843      -1.054      -1.127      -0.670      0.0000      0.0000      12.242      -0.237      -1.103
Houghton                10 15 1785 1950 -1.471      -1.596      -1.617      -1.871      0.0000      0.0000       9.905      -1.999      -1.743
Lancaster Bible         14 14 2069 2030 -2.057      -1.941      -2.014      -1.871      0.0000      0.0000       8.768      -2.139      -1.604
Cairn                    7 19 1836 2038 -1.588      -2.055      -2.145      -1.913      0.0000      0.0000       8.362      -2.111      -1.715

NCCAA-I N Cen: strength=-0.803 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bethel IN               30  5 3175 2717 -0.180       1.011       0.697       0.611      0.0000      0.0000      19.590       1.423      -0.201
Trinity Int'l           30  7 3152 2912 -0.697       0.407       0.179      -0.342      0.0000      0.0000      17.384       0.179      -0.862
Greenville              21  7 3587 3357 -1.070      -0.297      -0.414      -0.756      0.0000      0.0000      14.847       3.857      -5.368
Olivet Nazarene         15 17 2683 2724 -0.593      -0.577      -0.683      -0.565      0.0000      0.0000      13.817       0.188      -1.319
Trinity Christian       11 20 2283 2392 -0.772      -1.070      -1.144      -0.906      0.0000      0.0000      11.995      -1.163      -0.649
Judson IL                9 21 2149 2257 -1.037      -1.521      -1.524      -1.300      0.0000      0.0000      10.339      -1.685      -0.915
Lincoln Christian        5 23 2005 2466 -2.104      -2.452      -2.670      -2.511      0.0000      0.0000       6.724      -2.364      -2.659

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.988 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Chowan                  18 10 2196 2005 -0.094       0.565       0.302       0.264      0.0000      0.0000      18.138       0.205       0.322
Warner U.               25  6 2665 2344 -0.523       0.517       0.244      -0.017      0.0000      0.0000      17.723       0.392      -0.427
Emmanuel GA             20 12 2415 2348 -0.282       0.348       0.117      -0.044      0.0000      0.0000      17.368      -0.264       0.175
Southeastern FL         13 17 2374 2416 -0.453      -0.548      -0.654      -0.564      0.0000      0.0000      13.959      -0.260      -0.867
North Greenville        10 19 2084 2168 -0.514      -0.700      -0.800      -0.632      0.0000      0.0000      13.527      -1.114      -0.151
Brewton-Parker           8 22 2142 2475 -0.531      -0.999      -1.064      -1.179      0.0000      0.0000      12.302      -1.110      -1.248
Southern Wesleyan        3 27 2045 2628 -0.298      -1.238      -1.252      -1.304      0.0000      0.0000      11.333      -1.265      -1.344
Columbia Int'l           9 16 1923 2123 -1.917    6 -2.075    6 -2.172   10 -2.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.016   10 -2.123    8 -2.583
Carver                   0 16 1052 1347  0.019    8 -2.187    8 -2.281    4 -1.374    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  8.291    7 -1.427    2 -1.321
Selma U.                 0 23 1488 2223 -0.518   11 -2.494   11 -2.724   11 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.598   11 -2.282    9 -2.926

NCCAA-I West: strength=-1.054 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Shepherd                19 11 2305 2205  0.469       1.068       0.752       0.661      0.0000      0.0000      19.863       0.343       0.979
Bethesda                 6 16 1732 2056  0.159    1 -0.369    1 -0.479    1 -0.766    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.607    1  0.263    5 -1.795
Life Pacific             9 14 1647 1837 -0.575    2 -0.878    2 -0.935    2 -1.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 12.809    3 -1.015    1 -0.993
New Hope Christian       3 13 1241 1547 -1.378    7 -2.097    7 -2.203    9 -2.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  7.906    8 -1.513   10 -3.096
Yellowstone Christian    0 15 1021 1324 -0.400    9 -2.346    9 -2.504    7 -1.828    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.454    9 -1.527    7 -2.129

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Cen     248 225 0.524    1 -0.451
NCCAA-I N Cen   121 100 0.548    2 -0.803
NCCAA-I Mid-W   176 184 0.489    3 -0.844
NCCAA-I South   106 168 0.387    4 -0.988
NCCAA-I West     37  69 0.349    5 -1.054
NCCAA-I Mid-E    67 116 0.366    6 -1.152

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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