Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             30  3 2965 2035  0.847    1  1.970    1  1.582    1  2.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 23.139    1  2.224    1  2.301
Ryerson                 27  6 2854 2269  0.468    2  1.464    2  1.119    2  1.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.175    2  1.357    4  1.005
Ottawa ON               26  6 2522 2071  0.098    3  1.085    3  0.772    3  0.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 20.001    5  0.423    3  1.283
Brock                   24  6 2289 2056 -0.080    4  1.039    4  0.729    6  0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.625   12  0.077    5  0.680
UBC                     26  4 2769 2157 -0.447    5  0.755    5  0.494    4  0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 19.076    3  1.306    8  0.195
Dalhousie               32  8 3155 2802 -0.450    6  0.632    6  0.374    9  0.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.328   20 -0.321    6  0.533
Calgary                 30  9 3424 2969 -0.306    7  0.593    7  0.333    7  0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.356    4  0.903   13 -0.177
McGill                  22  8 2135 1848 -0.187    8  0.568    8  0.304    5  0.535    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.182   17 -0.251    2  1.321
Saskatchewan            23 10 2623 2392 -0.344    9  0.367    9  0.138   10  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 17.474   16 -0.081    7  0.241
Alberta                 25 13 3164 2832 -0.271   10  0.253   10  0.033    8  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 17.238    6  0.400   10  0.006
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            25 12 3099 2953 -0.467   11  0.203   11 -0.005   14 -0.282    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 16.705   11  0.079   22 -0.644
Lethbridge U.           23 13 2954 2945 -0.482   12  0.192   12 -0.019   17 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 16.598    7  0.220   35 -1.002
McMaster                18 12 2294 2201 -0.265   13  0.134   13 -0.083   13 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 16.556   19 -0.269   14 -0.223
Manitoba                22 15 3004 2907 -0.403   14 -0.008   14 -0.162   12 -0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 16.174   13  0.013   18 -0.446
Toronto                 17 12 2189 2146 -0.408   15 -0.075   15 -0.209   15 -0.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.879   18 -0.269   17 -0.421
Concordia QC            19 15 2362 2336 -0.362   16 -0.086   16 -0.221   16 -0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.809   35 -0.837    9  0.111
Windsor                 17 13 2323 2358 -0.539   17 -0.212   17 -0.343   25 -0.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.178   21 -0.329   33 -0.963
Nipissing               14 16 2097 2281 -0.367   18 -0.279   18 -0.395   22 -0.585    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.952   34 -0.813   15 -0.356
UNB                     17 11 2379 2297 -0.697   19 -0.291   19 -0.407   18 -0.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 15.016   14  0.006   30 -0.899
Winnipeg                21 14 2740 2650 -0.726   20 -0.323   20 -0.442   20 -0.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.852   24 -0.448   21 -0.612
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Memorial                17 14 2418 2538 -0.673   21 -0.340   21 -0.461   35 -0.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.583   28 -0.634   31 -0.937
Laurentian              11 15 1952 2024 -0.239   22 -0.374   22 -0.486   11 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.758   10  0.081   16 -0.387
UQAM                    16 16 2318 2360 -0.624   23 -0.453   23 -0.576   34 -0.765    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.218   32 -0.763   25 -0.768
St Francis Xavier       15 19 2800 2888 -0.482   24 -0.525   24 -0.629   24 -0.628    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 14.037   15 -0.066   40 -1.190
Victoria                15 18 2460 2552 -0.598   25 -0.579   25 -0.686   26 -0.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.795   36 -0.849   20 -0.591
Acadia                  15 18 2790 2766 -0.589   26 -0.638   26 -0.724   19 -0.507    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.747    9  0.140   39 -1.153
Thompson Rivers         14 17 2360 2452 -0.660   27 -0.645   27 -0.732   33 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.543   30 -0.733   27 -0.792
Fraser Valley           13 15 2107 2234 -0.754   28 -0.678   28 -0.775   38 -0.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.393   29 -0.714   37 -1.055
Laurier                 13 18 2236 2399 -0.617   29 -0.691   29 -0.791   39 -0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.366   39 -0.984   26 -0.790
Western ON              11 18 2117 2233 -0.480   30 -0.699   30 -0.800   23 -0.599    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.432   27 -0.631   19 -0.566
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Queen's ON              10 20 2159 2332 -0.413   31 -0.747   31 -0.836   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.287   33 -0.788   23 -0.689
MacEwan                 12 16 2186 2246 -0.701   32 -0.757   32 -0.847   28 -0.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.256   23 -0.440   36 -1.016
Laval                    8 19 1731 1889 -0.355   33 -0.759   33 -0.849   27 -0.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.290   45 -1.445   11 -0.002
Regina                  14 23 2894 3051 -0.585   34 -0.797   34 -0.858   36 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 13.202   22 -0.421   41 -1.266
Guelph                  10 18 2050 2167 -0.513   35 -0.816   35 -0.879   30 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 13.189   31 -0.739   24 -0.749
Lakehead                10 21 2134 2252 -0.440   36 -0.849   36 -0.915   21 -0.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 13.151   41 -1.110   12 -0.036
UPEI                    12 18 2613 2701 -0.726   37 -0.878   37 -0.934   40 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.894    8  0.186   46 -1.969
Waterloo                10 20 2235 2410 -0.578   38 -0.902   38 -0.965   31 -0.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.748   25 -0.511   34 -0.985
Brandon                 12 21 2467 2775 -0.823   39 -0.988   39 -1.052   42 -1.333    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 12.176   38 -0.975   44 -1.692
Bishop's                 6 20 1832 1970 -0.435   40 -1.060   40 -1.132   37 -0.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.156   37 -0.909   29 -0.856
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNBC                     9 20 2084 2385 -0.786   41 -1.076   41 -1.150   43 -1.364    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.571   44 -1.390   42 -1.339
Mount Royal              9 20 2258 2326 -0.659   42 -1.164   42 -1.197   32 -0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.735   26 -0.574   32 -0.946
Algoma                   7 23 2007 2417 -0.593   43 -1.174   43 -1.208   44 -1.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.326   46 -1.665   38 -1.136
York ON                  5 24 1972 2260 -0.493   44 -1.374   44 -1.354   41 -1.011    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.084   43 -1.206   28 -0.816
Trinity Western          5 23 2062 2419 -0.888   45 -1.636   45 -1.665   45 -1.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.863   42 -1.178   45 -1.849
UCCB                     1 28 2172 2636 -0.563   46 -1.935   46 -2.000   46 -1.518    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.755   40 -1.046   47 -1.989
UBC-Okanagan             4 23 1832 2153 -1.135   47 -1.946   47 -2.017   47 -1.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.652   47 -2.177   43 -1.406


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.657 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               32  8 3155 2802 -0.450    6  0.632    6  0.374    9  0.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.328   20 -0.321    6  0.533
St Mary's NS            25 12 3099 2953 -0.467   11  0.203   11 -0.005   14 -0.282    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 16.705   11  0.079   22 -0.644
UNB                     17 11 2379 2297 -0.697   19 -0.291   19 -0.407   18 -0.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 15.016   14  0.006   30 -0.899
Memorial                17 14 2418 2538 -0.673   21 -0.340   21 -0.461   35 -0.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.583   28 -0.634   31 -0.937
St Francis Xavier       15 19 2800 2888 -0.482   24 -0.525   24 -0.629   24 -0.628    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 14.037   15 -0.066   40 -1.190
Acadia                  15 18 2790 2766 -0.589   26 -0.638   26 -0.724   19 -0.507    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.747    9  0.140   39 -1.153
UPEI                    12 18 2613 2701 -0.726   37 -0.878   37 -0.934   40 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.894    8  0.186   46 -1.969
UCCB                     1 28 2172 2636 -0.563   46 -1.935   46 -2.000   46 -1.518    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.755   40 -1.046   47 -1.989

Expl-Can W: strength=-1.132 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Thompson Rivers         14 17 2360 2452 -0.660   27 -0.645   27 -0.732   33 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.543   30 -0.733   27 -0.792
Fraser Valley           13 15 2107 2234 -0.754   28 -0.678   28 -0.775   38 -0.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.393   29 -0.714   37 -1.055
MacEwan                 12 16 2186 2246 -0.701   32 -0.757   32 -0.847   28 -0.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.256   23 -0.440   36 -1.016
UNBC                     9 20 2084 2385 -0.786   41 -1.076   41 -1.150   43 -1.364    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.571   44 -1.390   42 -1.339
Mount Royal              9 20 2258 2326 -0.659   42 -1.164   42 -1.197   32 -0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.735   26 -0.574   32 -0.946
UBC-Okanagan             4 23 1832 2153 -1.135   47 -1.946   47 -2.017   47 -1.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.652   47 -2.177   43 -1.406

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.338 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             30  3 2965 2035  0.847    1  1.970    1  1.582    1  2.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 23.139    1  2.224    1  2.301
Ryerson                 27  6 2854 2269  0.468    2  1.464    2  1.119    2  1.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.175    2  1.357    4  1.005
Ottawa ON               26  6 2522 2071  0.098    3  1.085    3  0.772    3  0.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 20.001    5  0.423    3  1.283
Brock                   24  6 2289 2056 -0.080    4  1.039    4  0.729    6  0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.625   12  0.077    5  0.680
McMaster                18 12 2294 2201 -0.265   13  0.134   13 -0.083   13 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 16.556   19 -0.269   14 -0.223
Toronto                 17 12 2189 2146 -0.408   15 -0.075   15 -0.209   15 -0.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.879   18 -0.269   17 -0.421
Windsor                 17 13 2323 2358 -0.539   17 -0.212   17 -0.343   25 -0.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.178   21 -0.329   33 -0.963
Nipissing               14 16 2097 2281 -0.367   18 -0.279   18 -0.395   22 -0.585    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.952   34 -0.813   15 -0.356
Laurentian              11 15 1952 2024 -0.239   22 -0.374   22 -0.486   11 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.758   10  0.081   16 -0.387
Laurier                 13 18 2236 2399 -0.617   29 -0.691   29 -0.791   39 -0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.366   39 -0.984   26 -0.790
Western ON              11 18 2117 2233 -0.480   30 -0.699   30 -0.800   23 -0.599    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.432   27 -0.631   19 -0.566
Queen's ON              10 20 2159 2332 -0.413   31 -0.747   31 -0.836   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.287   33 -0.788   23 -0.689
Guelph                  10 18 2050 2167 -0.513   35 -0.816   35 -0.879   30 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 13.189   31 -0.739   24 -0.749
Lakehead                10 21 2134 2252 -0.440   36 -0.849   36 -0.915   21 -0.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 13.151   41 -1.110   12 -0.036
Waterloo                10 20 2235 2410 -0.578   38 -0.902   38 -0.965   31 -0.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.748   25 -0.511   34 -0.985
Algoma                   7 23 2007 2417 -0.593   43 -1.174   43 -1.208   44 -1.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.326   46 -1.665   38 -1.136
York ON                  5 24 1972 2260 -0.493   44 -1.374   44 -1.354   41 -1.011    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.084   43 -1.206   28 -0.816

Pioneer-Can W: strength=-0.361 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     26  4 2769 2157 -0.447    5  0.755    5  0.494    4  0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 19.076    3  1.306    8  0.195
Calgary                 30  9 3424 2969 -0.306    7  0.593    7  0.333    7  0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.356    4  0.903   13 -0.177
Saskatchewan            23 10 2623 2392 -0.344    9  0.367    9  0.138   10  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 17.474   16 -0.081    7  0.241
Alberta                 25 13 3164 2832 -0.271   10  0.253   10  0.033    8  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 17.238    6  0.400   10  0.006
Lethbridge U.           23 13 2954 2945 -0.482   12  0.192   12 -0.019   17 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 16.598    7  0.220   35 -1.002
Manitoba                22 15 3004 2907 -0.403   14 -0.008   14 -0.162   12 -0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 16.174   13  0.013   18 -0.446
Winnipeg                21 14 2740 2650 -0.726   20 -0.323   20 -0.442   20 -0.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.852   24 -0.448   21 -0.612
Victoria                15 18 2460 2552 -0.598   25 -0.579   25 -0.686   26 -0.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.795   36 -0.849   20 -0.591
Regina                  14 23 2894 3051 -0.585   34 -0.797   34 -0.858   36 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 13.202   22 -0.421   41 -1.266
Brandon                 12 21 2467 2775 -0.823   39 -0.988   39 -1.052   42 -1.333    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 12.176   38 -0.975   44 -1.692
Trinity Western          5 23 2062 2419 -0.888   45 -1.636   45 -1.665   45 -1.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.863   42 -1.178   45 -1.849

QSSF: strength=-0.425 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  22  8 2135 1848 -0.187    8  0.568    8  0.304    5  0.535    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.182   17 -0.251    2  1.321
Concordia QC            19 15 2362 2336 -0.362   16 -0.086   16 -0.221   16 -0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.809   35 -0.837    9  0.111
UQAM                    16 16 2318 2360 -0.624   23 -0.453   23 -0.576   34 -0.765    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.218   32 -0.763   25 -0.768
Laval                    8 19 1731 1889 -0.355   33 -0.759   33 -0.849   27 -0.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.290   45 -1.445   11 -0.002
Bishop's                 6 20 1832 1970 -0.435   40 -1.060   40 -1.132   37 -0.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.156   37 -0.909   29 -0.856

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   260 251 0.509    1 -0.338
Pioneer-Can W   216 163 0.570    2 -0.361
QSSF             71  78 0.477    3 -0.425
Atl U Sport     134 128 0.511    4 -0.657
Expl-Can W       61 111 0.355    5 -1.132

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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