Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             30  3 2965 2035  0.847    1  1.977    1  1.582    1  2.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 23.018    1  2.224    1  2.301
Ryerson                 27  6 2854 2269  0.468    2  1.474    2  1.119    2  1.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.052    2  1.357    4  1.005
Ottawa ON               26  6 2522 2071  0.097    3  1.096    3  0.771    3  0.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.878    5  0.423    3  1.283
Brock                   24  6 2289 2056 -0.080    4  1.050    4  0.729    6  0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.487   12  0.077    5  0.680
UBC                     26  4 2769 2157 -0.447    5  0.746    5  0.494    4  0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.939    3  1.306    8  0.195
Dalhousie               32  8 3155 2802 -0.450    6  0.624    6  0.374    9  0.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.222   20 -0.321    6  0.533
Calgary                 30  9 3424 2969 -0.306    7  0.584    7  0.333    7  0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.251    4  0.903   13 -0.177
McGill                  22  8 2135 1848 -0.187    8  0.560    8  0.304    5  0.535    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.077   17 -0.251    2  1.321
Saskatchewan            23 10 2623 2392 -0.344    9  0.360    9  0.138   10  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 17.364   16 -0.081    7  0.241
Alberta                 25 13 3164 2832 -0.271   10  0.246   10  0.033    8  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 17.129    6  0.400   10  0.006
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Mary's NS            25 12 3099 2953 -0.467   11  0.196   11 -0.005   14 -0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 16.597   11  0.079   22 -0.644
Lethbridge U.           23 13 2954 2945 -0.482   12  0.185   12 -0.019   17 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 16.489    7  0.220   35 -1.002
McMaster                18 12 2294 2201 -0.265   13  0.127   13 -0.083   13 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 16.447   19 -0.270   14 -0.223
Manitoba                22 15 3004 2907 -0.403   14 -0.014   14 -0.163   12 -0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 16.097   13  0.013   18 -0.446
Toronto                 17 12 2189 2146 -0.408   15 -0.085   15 -0.209   15 -0.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.802   18 -0.269   17 -0.421
Concordia QC            19 15 2362 2336 -0.362   16 -0.096   16 -0.221   16 -0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.732   35 -0.837    9  0.111
Windsor                 17 13 2323 2358 -0.539   17 -0.221   17 -0.343   25 -0.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.101   21 -0.330   33 -0.963
Nipissing               14 16 2097 2281 -0.368   18 -0.287   18 -0.395   22 -0.585    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.876   34 -0.814   15 -0.357
UNB                     17 11 2379 2297 -0.697   19 -0.299   19 -0.407   18 -0.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.939   14  0.006   30 -0.899
Winnipeg                21 14 2740 2650 -0.726   20 -0.331   20 -0.442   20 -0.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.776   24 -0.448   21 -0.612
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Memorial                17 14 2418 2538 -0.673   21 -0.348   21 -0.461   35 -0.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.507   28 -0.634   31 -0.937
Laurentian              11 15 1952 2024 -0.239   22 -0.382   22 -0.486   11 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.682   10  0.081   16 -0.387
UQAM                    16 16 2318 2360 -0.625   23 -0.460   23 -0.576   34 -0.766    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.142   32 -0.763   25 -0.768
St Francis Xavier       15 19 2800 2888 -0.482   24 -0.532   24 -0.629   24 -0.628    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.983   15 -0.066   40 -1.190
Victoria                15 18 2460 2552 -0.598   25 -0.586   25 -0.686   26 -0.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.731   36 -0.849   20 -0.591
Acadia                  15 18 2790 2766 -0.589   26 -0.644   26 -0.724   19 -0.507    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.684    9  0.140   39 -1.153
Thompson Rivers         14 17 2360 2452 -0.660   27 -0.651   27 -0.732   33 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.479   30 -0.733   27 -0.792
Fraser Valley           13 15 2107 2234 -0.754   28 -0.684   28 -0.775   38 -0.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.335   29 -0.714   37 -1.055
Laurier                 13 18 2236 2399 -0.617   29 -0.697   29 -0.791   39 -0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.309   39 -0.984   26 -0.791
Western ON              11 18 2117 2233 -0.480   30 -0.705   30 -0.800   23 -0.599    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.374   27 -0.631   19 -0.566
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Queen's ON              10 20 2159 2332 -0.414   31 -0.752   31 -0.836   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.230   33 -0.788   23 -0.689
MacEwan                 12 16 2186 2246 -0.701   32 -0.762   32 -0.847   28 -0.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.198   23 -0.440   36 -1.016
Laval                    8 19 1731 1889 -0.355   33 -0.764   33 -0.849   27 -0.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.233   45 -1.445   11 -0.002
Regina                  14 23 2894 3051 -0.585   34 -0.802   34 -0.859   36 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 13.145   22 -0.421   41 -1.266
Guelph                  10 18 2050 2167 -0.514   35 -0.821   35 -0.879   30 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 13.132   31 -0.739   24 -0.749
Lakehead                10 21 2134 2252 -0.440   36 -0.854   36 -0.915   21 -0.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 13.093   41 -1.110   12 -0.036
UPEI                    12 18 2613 2701 -0.726   37 -0.882   37 -0.934   40 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.837    8  0.186   46 -1.969
Waterloo                10 20 2235 2410 -0.578   38 -0.906   38 -0.965   31 -0.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.691   25 -0.511   34 -0.985
Brandon                 12 21 2467 2775 -0.823   39 -0.993   39 -1.052   42 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 12.123   38 -0.975   44 -1.692
Bishop's                 6 20 1832 1970 -0.435   40 -1.064   40 -1.132   37 -0.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.102   37 -0.909   29 -0.856
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNBC                     9 20 2084 2385 -0.786   41 -1.080   41 -1.151   43 -1.364    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.518   44 -1.390   42 -1.339
Mount Royal              9 20 2258 2326 -0.659   42 -1.167   42 -1.197   32 -0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.682   26 -0.574   32 -0.946
Algoma                   7 23 2007 2417 -0.593   43 -1.177   43 -1.208   44 -1.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.274   46 -1.665   38 -1.136
York ON                  5 24 1972 2260 -0.493   44 -1.377   44 -1.354   41 -1.011    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.033   43 -1.206   28 -0.816
Trinity Western          5 23 2062 2419 -0.888   45 -1.637   45 -1.665   45 -1.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.849   42 -1.178   45 -1.849
UCCB                     1 28 2172 2636 -0.564   46 -1.935   46 -2.000   46 -1.518    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.739   40 -1.046   47 -1.990
UBC-Okanagan             4 23 1832 2153 -1.135   47 -1.946   47 -2.017   47 -1.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.636   47 -2.177   43 -1.406


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.657 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               32  8 3155 2802 -0.450    6  0.624    6  0.374    9  0.106    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 18.222   20 -0.321    6  0.533
St Mary's NS            25 12 3099 2953 -0.467   11  0.196   11 -0.005   14 -0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 16.597   11  0.079   22 -0.644
UNB                     17 11 2379 2297 -0.697   19 -0.299   19 -0.407   18 -0.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.939   14  0.006   30 -0.899
Memorial                17 14 2418 2538 -0.673   21 -0.348   21 -0.461   35 -0.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 14.507   28 -0.634   31 -0.937
St Francis Xavier       15 19 2800 2888 -0.482   24 -0.532   24 -0.629   24 -0.628    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 13.983   15 -0.066   40 -1.190
Acadia                  15 18 2790 2766 -0.589   26 -0.644   26 -0.724   19 -0.507    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 13.684    9  0.140   39 -1.153
UPEI                    12 18 2613 2701 -0.726   37 -0.882   37 -0.934   40 -0.892    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 12.837    8  0.186   46 -1.969
UCCB                     1 28 2172 2636 -0.564   46 -1.935   46 -2.000   46 -1.518    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  8.739   40 -1.046   47 -1.990

Expl-Can W: strength=-1.132 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Thompson Rivers         14 17 2360 2452 -0.660   27 -0.651   27 -0.732   33 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 13.479   30 -0.733   27 -0.792
Fraser Valley           13 15 2107 2234 -0.754   28 -0.684   28 -0.775   38 -0.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 13.335   29 -0.714   37 -1.055
MacEwan                 12 16 2186 2246 -0.701   32 -0.762   32 -0.847   28 -0.728    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 13.198   23 -0.440   36 -1.016
UNBC                     9 20 2084 2385 -0.786   41 -1.080   41 -1.151   43 -1.364    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.518   44 -1.390   42 -1.339
Mount Royal              9 20 2258 2326 -0.659   42 -1.167   42 -1.197   32 -0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.682   26 -0.574   32 -0.946
UBC-Okanagan             4 23 1832 2153 -1.135   47 -1.946   47 -2.017   47 -1.791    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.636   47 -2.177   43 -1.406

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.338 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             30  3 2965 2035  0.847    1  1.977    1  1.582    1  2.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 23.018    1  2.224    1  2.301
Ryerson                 27  6 2854 2269  0.468    2  1.474    2  1.119    2  1.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 21.052    2  1.357    4  1.005
Ottawa ON               26  6 2522 2071  0.097    3  1.096    3  0.771    3  0.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 19.878    5  0.423    3  1.283
Brock                   24  6 2289 2056 -0.080    4  1.050    4  0.729    6  0.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 19.487   12  0.077    5  0.680
McMaster                18 12 2294 2201 -0.265   13  0.127   13 -0.083   13 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 16.447   19 -0.270   14 -0.223
Toronto                 17 12 2189 2146 -0.408   15 -0.085   15 -0.209   15 -0.345    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 15.802   18 -0.269   17 -0.421
Windsor                 17 13 2323 2358 -0.539   17 -0.221   17 -0.343   25 -0.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 15.101   21 -0.330   33 -0.963
Nipissing               14 16 2097 2281 -0.368   18 -0.287   18 -0.395   22 -0.585    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 14.876   34 -0.814   15 -0.357
Laurentian              11 15 1952 2024 -0.239   22 -0.382   22 -0.486   11 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 14.682   10  0.081   16 -0.387
Laurier                 13 18 2236 2399 -0.617   29 -0.697   29 -0.791   39 -0.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 13.309   39 -0.984   26 -0.791
Western ON              11 18 2117 2233 -0.480   30 -0.705   30 -0.800   23 -0.599    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 13.374   27 -0.631   19 -0.566
Queen's ON              10 20 2159 2332 -0.414   31 -0.752   31 -0.836   29 -0.739    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 13.230   33 -0.788   23 -0.689
Guelph                  10 18 2050 2167 -0.514   35 -0.821   35 -0.879   30 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 13.132   31 -0.739   24 -0.749
Lakehead                10 21 2134 2252 -0.440   36 -0.854   36 -0.915   21 -0.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 13.093   41 -1.110   12 -0.036
Waterloo                10 20 2235 2410 -0.578   38 -0.906   38 -0.965   31 -0.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 12.691   25 -0.511   34 -0.985
Algoma                   7 23 2007 2417 -0.593   43 -1.177   43 -1.208   44 -1.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.274   46 -1.665   38 -1.136
York ON                  5 24 1972 2260 -0.493   44 -1.377   44 -1.354   41 -1.011    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44 11.033   43 -1.206   28 -0.816

Pioneer-Can W: strength=-0.362 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     26  4 2769 2157 -0.447    5  0.746    5  0.494    4  0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 18.939    3  1.306    8  0.195
Calgary                 30  9 3424 2969 -0.306    7  0.584    7  0.333    7  0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 18.251    4  0.903   13 -0.177
Saskatchewan            23 10 2623 2392 -0.344    9  0.360    9  0.138   10  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 17.364   16 -0.081    7  0.241
Alberta                 25 13 3164 2832 -0.271   10  0.246   10  0.033    8  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 17.129    6  0.400   10  0.006
Lethbridge U.           23 13 2954 2945 -0.482   12  0.185   12 -0.019   17 -0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 16.489    7  0.220   35 -1.002
Manitoba                22 15 3004 2907 -0.403   14 -0.014   14 -0.163   12 -0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 16.097   13  0.013   18 -0.446
Winnipeg                21 14 2740 2650 -0.726   20 -0.331   20 -0.442   20 -0.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 14.776   24 -0.448   21 -0.612
Victoria                15 18 2460 2552 -0.598   25 -0.586   25 -0.686   26 -0.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 13.731   36 -0.849   20 -0.591
Regina                  14 23 2894 3051 -0.585   34 -0.802   34 -0.859   36 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 13.145   22 -0.421   41 -1.266
Brandon                 12 21 2467 2775 -0.823   39 -0.993   39 -1.052   42 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 12.123   38 -0.975   44 -1.692
Trinity Western          5 23 2062 2419 -0.888   45 -1.637   45 -1.665   45 -1.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.849   42 -1.178   45 -1.849

QSSF: strength=-0.426 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  22  8 2135 1848 -0.187    8  0.560    8  0.304    5  0.535    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 18.077   17 -0.251    2  1.321
Concordia QC            19 15 2362 2336 -0.362   16 -0.096   16 -0.221   16 -0.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 15.732   35 -0.837    9  0.111
UQAM                    16 16 2318 2360 -0.625   23 -0.460   23 -0.576   34 -0.766    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 14.142   32 -0.763   25 -0.768
Laval                    8 19 1731 1889 -0.355   33 -0.764   33 -0.849   27 -0.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 13.233   45 -1.445   11 -0.002
Bishop's                 6 20 1832 1970 -0.435   40 -1.064   40 -1.132   37 -0.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.102   37 -0.909   29 -0.856

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ont Univ Athl   260 251 0.509    1 -0.338
Pioneer-Can W   216 163 0.570    2 -0.362
QSSF             71  78 0.477    3 -0.426
Atl U Sport     134 128 0.511    4 -0.657
Expl-Can W       61 111 0.355    5 -1.132

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sun Oct 12 21:53:40 2025

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