Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Rhema Bible             11  5 1441 1321 -2.422    1 -2.075    1 -2.174    1 -2.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  8.209    1 -1.337    1 -2.992
Champion Christian       5  6  846  923 -3.022    2 -2.787    2 -3.110    2 -3.414    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  5.666    2 -3.274    2 -3.554
Emmaus Bible             6 15 1461 1721 -2.892    3 -2.984    3 -3.453    3 -3.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  4.934    4 -3.507    3 -3.661
AFLBS                    6  8 1182 1189 -3.775    4 -3.214    4 -3.909    4 -3.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  3.984    3 -3.396    5 -4.348
St Louis Christian       1  4  383  472 -3.793    5 -3.372    5 -4.232    6 -4.552    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  3.292    5 -3.813    6 -5.291
Calvary                  3 11 1017 1198 -3.679    6 -3.421    6 -4.376    5 -4.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  3.209    6 -4.010    4 -4.050


ACCA: strength=-3.079 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Randall                 11 17 2217 2290 -0.697      -1.236      -1.253      -0.892      0.0000      0.0000      11.558      -0.621      -1.162
Rhema Bible             11  5 1441 1321 -2.422    1 -2.075    1 -2.174    1 -2.164    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  8.209    1 -1.337    1 -2.992
Arlington Baptist        7 19 1959 2278 -1.515      -2.205      -2.316      -2.030      0.0000      0.0000       7.828      -1.722      -2.339
Trinity Bible            8 12 1589 1723 -2.517      -2.501      -2.744      -2.720      0.0000      0.0000       6.566      -2.206      -3.233
Welch                    4  9  981 1059 -2.270      -2.531      -2.776      -2.812      0.0000      0.0000       6.558      -2.680      -2.945
Dallas Christian         2 28 2163 2866 -1.050      -2.623      -2.867      -2.244      0.0000      0.0000       6.494      -1.743      -2.745
Champion Christian       5  6  846  923 -3.022    2 -2.787    2 -3.110    2 -3.414    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  5.666    2 -3.274    2 -3.554
Ozark Christian          9 19 2216 2602 -3.004      -2.915      -3.342      -3.292      0.0000      0.0000       5.324      -2.550      -4.035
Faith Baptist Bible     10 11 1599 1721 -3.422      -2.918      -3.348      -3.709      0.0000      0.0000       5.228      -3.609      -3.809
Providence MB            8 15 2028 2243 -3.741      -3.163      -3.816      -3.972      0.0000      0.0000       4.204      -2.375      -5.570
St Louis Christian       1  4  383  472 -3.793    5 -3.372    5 -4.232    6 -4.552    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  3.292    5 -3.813    6 -5.291
Oak Hills Christian      0 20 1183 2010 -2.719      -3.637      -4.738      -4.719      0.0000      0.0000       2.652      -4.864      -4.573

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ACCA             76 165 0.315    1 -3.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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