Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia AL            17  9 1989 1877 -0.584    1 -0.054    1 -0.186    1 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 15.992    4 -0.814    1 -0.016
Oakwood                 10 11 1627 1577 -0.477    2 -0.588    2 -0.689    2 -0.502    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.935    3 -0.531    2 -0.474
Maine-Fort Kent         25 15 3334 2912 -1.056    3 -0.696    3 -0.797    3 -0.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 13.501    2 -0.467    3 -0.812
Florida National        12 20 2629 2708 -0.749    4 -1.167    4 -1.201    4 -0.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.704    1 -0.279    5 -1.571
Robert Morris-Peoria     5 12 1294 1529 -1.277    5 -1.643    5 -1.674    6 -1.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.644    6 -1.497    7 -2.348
Florida College         12 16 2156 2201 -1.485    6 -1.688    6 -1.726    5 -1.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.738    5 -1.484    4 -1.505
Apprentice               5 18 1661 1849 -1.504    7 -2.193    7 -2.296    7 -1.942    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  7.888    7 -1.778    6 -2.105
Robt Morris-Springfield  0 18 1179 1696 -1.571    8 -2.860    8 -3.236    8 -3.267    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.517    8 -3.201    8 -3.332


USCAA-I: strength=-1.251 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Rochester MI            27  4 2650 2044 -0.663       0.565       0.301       0.173      0.0000      0.0000      18.127      -0.169       0.515
Washington Adventist    22  7 2286 2105 -0.477       0.446       0.182      -0.211      0.0000      0.0000      17.520      -0.220      -0.203
Concordia AL            17  9 1989 1877 -0.584    1 -0.054    1 -0.186    1 -0.415    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 15.992    4 -0.814    1 -0.016
West Virginia Tech      23  9 2886 2394 -0.764      -0.173      -0.306      -0.005      0.0000      0.0000      15.557       0.301      -0.310
Illinois Tech           22  7 2257 2090 -1.150      -0.264      -0.379      -0.873      0.0000      0.0000      14.910      -0.924      -0.823
Iowa Wesleyan           18 10 2554 2419 -1.008      -0.566      -0.673      -0.707      0.0000      0.0000      13.809       0.243      -1.656
Oakwood                 10 11 1627 1577 -0.477    2 -0.588    2 -0.689    2 -0.502    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.935    3 -0.531    2 -0.474
Maine-Fort Kent         25 15 3334 2912 -1.056    3 -0.696    3 -0.797    3 -0.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 13.501    2 -0.467    3 -0.812
Marygrove               11 22 2484 2866 -0.519      -0.823      -0.887      -0.914      0.0000      0.0000      12.923      -0.347      -1.481
Bluefield St WV          8 20 1962 2283 -0.681      -0.895      -0.955      -1.103      0.0000      0.0000      12.693      -1.228      -0.978
SUNY Canton             20  9 2259 2099 -1.504      -0.913      -0.981      -1.075      0.0000      0.0000      12.704      -1.189      -0.961
Florida National        12 20 2629 2708 -0.749    4 -1.167    4 -1.201    4 -0.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 11.704    1 -0.279    5 -1.571
Paul Quinn               5 26 2301 2792 -0.321      -1.200      -1.214      -1.211      0.0000      0.0000      11.395      -0.670      -1.753
Berea                   16 12 2272 2191 -1.469      -1.257      -1.279      -1.384      0.0000      0.0000      11.237      -1.152      -1.615
Dallas                   9 16 1975 2049 -1.146      -1.492      -1.484      -1.387      0.0000      0.0000      10.361      -1.002      -1.772
Robert Morris-Peoria     5 12 1294 1529 -1.277    5 -1.643    5 -1.674    6 -1.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.644    6 -1.497    7 -2.348
Florida College         12 16 2156 2201 -1.485    6 -1.688    6 -1.726    5 -1.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.738    5 -1.484    4 -1.505
Carlow                   4 26 2145 2769 -1.110      -1.910      -1.969      -2.137      0.0000      0.0000       8.634      -1.758      -2.517
Maine-Presque Isle      11 11 1433 1509 -2.442      -2.046      -2.133      -2.400      0.0000      0.0000       8.208      -3.399      -1.401
Alfred St                8 17 1845 1824 -1.759      -2.159      -2.285      -1.605      0.0000      0.0000       8.130      -1.863      -1.348
Apprentice               5 18 1661 1849 -1.504    7 -2.193    7 -2.296    7 -1.942    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  7.888    7 -1.778    6 -2.105
Silver Lake              3 21 1575 2147 -1.797      -2.229      -2.331      -2.677      0.0000      0.0000       7.472      -2.675      -2.679
Robt Morris-Springfield  0 18 1179 1696 -1.571    8 -2.860    8 -3.236    8 -3.267    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.517    8 -3.201    8 -3.332

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-I         293 336 0.466    1 -1.251

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.238 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:45 2019

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